by Vivek Ahuja
“General Liu, if I ever find you questioning my authority in front of this committee or anywhere else, I will have you removed as well! Is that understood?”
“Absolutely,” Liu replied calmly.
“Now,” Peng continued, “there is the matter of the Indians. For all the incompetence shown by our commanders, it is the Indians ultimately who are to blame. And they will pay dearly! But not at the cost of our cities lost to nuclear weapons! If we were to lose even one of our major cities on top of what all has been happening in Tibet over the last year, as well as this war, the party will not survive. And we must survive! Without us, China has no future. So, do what you must. But we have to ensure that we bring the Indians on their knees and willing to negotiate an end to this war.”
“I can bring the Indians to their knees,” Liu said quietly as he crossed his fingers and leaned forward on the table. “Quickly and efficiently. Wencang was right on one thing, I will admit. The Indians did not have anything in their arsenals with sufficient range to strike at Golmud airbase other than ballistic-missiles. But their strike has given us the opening we needed. The attack on Tawang was an interesting test to see the inner weakness of the Indian government and its inability to digest civilian casualties. The three-thousand civilians that died in that one attack nearly overwhelmed their government’s ability to continue this war. But at Tawang they saw merely a glance at our might and our resolve to inflict whatever wounds needed to win this war on a higher pedestal. I think the time has now come for the Indian population to see our true resolve…”
MOSCOW
RUSSIA
DAY 12 + 0900 HRS
“This madness has to stop!”
“I think it is hardly a matter of us stopping anything right now,” Tiwari, the Indian Ambassador in Moscow replied as he stood in the office of the Russian Minister. “If anything, you should be spending this time with my counterpart from Beijing perhaps. They did start the war, after all.”
For his part, Bogdanov knew he could only carry his concern across to the Indian ambassador so far. After all, Moscow was under no threat from the war. In fact, it was profiting handsomely from it.
New-Delhi was in crisis talks with the Kremlin for new emergency contracts for artillery shells, missiles and aircraft to replace usage and losses. Beijing was trying to do the same, but it was worse for them given their much higher losses in ‘difficult-to-replace’ items such as Su-27s, Il-76 transports. India had taken losses in aircraft as well but for the Indian side the greatest need of the hour was replacement for spent Brahmos missiles, R-77s, anti-radar missiles and other airborne weapons. The land forces needs were even more staggering.
So both the Indian and Chinese embassy staffs in Russia were hard at work to secure instant contracts. All of which was either being paid for up front or on very generous credit lines favoring Moscow. In case of India, other such deals were also underway in Washington to provide additional spares for aircraft such as the C-130Js, C-17s and P-8Is which were being used daily and continuously as well. And money was flowing. All in all, there was little incentive in either Washington or Moscow for any serious intervention to halt the war…
Until the Indian and Chinese naval forces went berserk against each other’s commercial shipping, that is.
Over the last two weeks, the world economy was getting affected at ever increasing rates as commercial shipping had to be diverted away from well-established routes in the ocean. Foreign personnel had been evacuated from both India and China in the last week. And that affected companies worldwide. Once that threshold metric was achieved where the benefits of the emergency defense deals were offset by the overall losses in other sectors of the economy, the thought processes worldwide had changed.
There was also a military and media aspect to it.
Unlike other wars, the frontlines in this war were hard to reach by the media on either side. Targets being struck were in remote regions of Tibet far from western media coverage. On the Indian side the logistics were so clogged with military traffic that effective discerning of the current state of the conflict was impossible.
The fact that the war was spread over two-thousand kilometers and hundreds of thousands square kilometers of the ocean did not help. The only people who knew how the war was really going were in the military and government on both sides. And the media outlets were forced into a situation where they were dependent on press handouts from New-Delhi, Beijing, Washington and other locations.
Social media was adding to the chaos as well. With disparate pieces of information coming in from differing sources, the effect was chaotic. Rumors of nuclear weapons being used were rampant and causing mass panic in the major cities of India despite government claims to the contrary.
The ripple effect of all this on the world economics were significant. Businesses in both India and China were being shut down as people moved away from the urban areas in anticipation of what was to come…
Bogdanov looked Tiwari straight in the eyes.
“Mr. Tiwari, I think the time for games is over. I stand here not as your enemy but as a friend and as an official representative from the Kremlin. I have been instructed to ask you as to what it will take for your government to terminate hostilities.” The time for informalities was over.
“I have no instructions for negotiations from New-Delhi, Minister Bogdanov,” Tiwari replied. “But if I were to venture and express my personal opinions, I would say that Beijing started this war following a brutal repression program on the Tibetan populace more than a year ago now. They failed to crush the Tibetan bid for freedom from oppression. Beijing then tried to blame India for it and failed again. They then proceeded to attack my country with perhaps the most massive conventional arms campaign since the Second World War. And they are about to fail on that as well.”
Tiwari sighed, shook his head and continued: “If I was to say anything at all, sir, I would say that they are getting everything they deserve at this point!” Tiwari’s voice was laced with robustness and clarity of thought. After all, he had not been assigned to Moscow offhandedly.
Of course that confidence and clarity also stemmed from the state of the war. Like Beijing, New-Delhi and even the Kremlin had assessed that China was on the verge of losing the conventional war against India. But it was also the logical extrapolation of that assessment that Beijing was being pushed into a corner.
And that could prove lethal for both sides.
“Did New-Delhi have anything to do with arming and assisting the Tibetans as the Chinese claim?” Bogdanov asked neutrally. He half-expected a rebuttal, and got the same.
“Is the Kremlin seriously going to push forward Beijing’s made-up casus belli as an argument point to push India into a corner?” Tiwari asked with surprise. Bogdanov sensed the slyness of the answer and smiled internally.
“Beijing is going to believe whatever they want to believe. Matters on the ground, however, will not wait for them,” Tiwari replied.
“Tiwari,” Bogdanov replied with a neutral face, “it is our assessment that New-Delhi is becoming increasingly aggressive in dealing with Beijing and that the momentum of the war has shifted in favor of India. But bear in mind that Beijing knows this as well. If you push them too hard into the corner, they will become desperate. Your passion for retribution against Beijing aside, I think the use of nuclear weapons concerns us all, don’t you think?”
Tiwari noted the tone and the content of the statement and realized the Russian Foreign Minister had more to say.
“I think given the impact India and China have economically, it is in all of our interests to see to it that the war did not result in the destruction of economic capacities on both sides. India has proven its point to Beijing. We observed the naval battle in the Indian Ocean yesterday. We also detected your missile strikes against targets in northern Tibet. We know for a fact that Chinese aircraft no longer exert an effective presence over southern Tibet following the loss of their major airbases there
. And we know that your fighters are dominating the skies while your ground forces are preparing to push into Tibetan territory. For all practical purposes, China is defeated. End this now before a clean victory is lost in the ashes of a nuclear fallout!”
“China is defeated?” Tiwari noted in genuine surprise. “Bogdanov, you might want to run that assessment by the Chinese because as far as we can tell, they are far from admitting any such thing. We will continue operations until the Chinese threat to our country from Tibet is neutralized.”
Bogdanov exhaled and nodded his agreement.
“That is true. Beijing will not publicly accept defeat or even the projection of coming to the negotiating table if they are the ones who have to initiate it. It’s a cultural thing over there,” Bogdanov shrugged. “But surely New-Delhi is not in the same category? We need your government to be mature about this. The President has asked me to extend the offer of Moscow acting as an intermediary. I understand that New-Delhi and Beijing currently do not have a direct line of communication between them since last week. We can change that through this office.”
Tiwari considered that. He was no fool. He knew exactly what the extrapolations were for this war. It could go nuclear at any point from here on. The Indian Army in the east near Sikkim had an entire Corps now preparing to finish off the Chinese presence in the Chumbi valley. There was no saying how Beijing would respond to that.
A wounded dragon in the corner could be a very dangerous beast!
“Very well, sir,” Tiwari replied finally. “I will forward your offer to my government for consideration. But I will say this: if you plan to talk to Beijing today, make sure they understand that rhetoric on the willingness to use nuclear weapons in their state media will not be tolerated if any such meeting is to occur. Our people will not be open for negotiation under a nuclear threat. Beijing would be sadly mistaken if they doubt our resolve to turn the Chinese mainland into radioactive rubble if the situation demands.”
The wounded dragon in the corner could be a dangerous beast, but the elephant’s tusks were no less sharp!
Bogdanov nodded agreement and glanced at Tiwari as the Indian man picked up his file and prepared to leave. He thought he saw something on the corner of the man’s mouth: a smirk that existed for merely a second and then disappeared. Bogdanov thought he saw something there.
Confidence…?
BEIJING
CHINA
DAY 12 + 1130 HRS
“This makes no sense whatsoever, sir.”
“Did you expect any different, Feng?” Wencang said from behind the desk in his office.
Chen sat on the comfortable sofa lined up along the side of the wall away from the desk. He was looking at the wall covered in Wencang’s citations and pictures from over the years. Chen was in many of those pictures alongside his longtime friend.
Feng looked at his mentor and saw a neutral face. Chen had always been good at controlling his inner feelings and thoughts. And he would never publicly go against Wencang, regardless of the informality between them when they were alone. But Feng was having a hard time believing what he had been told about the CMC meeting earlier that morning…
“We are scapegoats, Feng. Nothing more,” Wencang continued. “Peng needed somebody to take the fall for what has transpired over the last two weeks. General Jinping and Zhigao were only the first to go. When the Indians snatched the skies over southern Tibet from us, it was only a matter of time for us. The only people in uniform who can still hope to claim any sense of authority with the party now are the ones whose hands are not yet blooded by battle and those that seem to be above any guilt, including Generals Yongju and Liu.”
“Although that seems more and more unlikely as time passes,” Chen said from where he sat, leaning comfortably on the sofa after having loosened his coat buttons.
“Indeed,” Wencang said as he picked up his glass with three fingers of whiskey still glistening gold under the office lighting. He considered drinking it while still in his office and still nominally in command.
Well, time to enjoy the privileges of rank while they last!
He emptied the glass in one gulp and looked around to Chen and Feng’s disapproving eyes. But neither man said a word. He turned to Chen while putting the empty glass back on his desk.
“So Chen, it would interest you to know that Admiral Huaqing is no longer with us in the mortal world. I got the news before you two came in. He was arrested by the chief commissar and taken away for questioning. I guess Peng changed his mind on him after we all left.”
Chen grunted a laugh. He was not surprised by that.
“When is our turn?”
“Not yet,” Wencang replied. “The committee still needs senior and experienced air-force commanders. Why do you think we are still here? Yongju convinced Peng to change his mind about the two of us. Though I think Liu would have liked nothing better to see us lined up against the wall!” Wencang laughed fatalistically. It made Feng uneasy. Wencang controlled his laughter and then continued:
“We are still no longer allowed inside the committee but are still in charge of the people’s air-force. Anyway Feng, what is the status on operation Punitive-Dragon?”
Feng checked his wrist-watch. “It begins within three hours, sir.”
“Good. It will go ahead as planned,” Wencang ordered
“Yes sir. Although I am a bit concerned about the new forces. They are as yet inexperienced against the Indian combat pilots,” Feng replied.
“You think they cannot do the job, Feng?” Chen asked.
“They can do the job, General,” Feng said calmly. “I know the commander of the Regiment who’s leading the operation. Rest assured, he will get the job done. I am worried about casualties, though.”
“Nothing can be done about that, Feng. And you know it!” Wencang concluded unilaterally. “Besides, tell our men that they are going after the Indians who facilitated the brutal attack on Golmud. That will get their blood flowing!”
“Yes sir, I have already made sure of that. The men are motivated,” Feng said confidently. He had in fact had the same idea as what Wencang had just proposed. What’s more, it was true.
“Very well. Consider yourself dismissed, Senior-Colonel,” Wencang said. “Oh, and tell the pilots that the commander of the air-force has full confidence in their abilities!”
Feng saluted and walked out of the office, leaving the two Generals sitting inside. Once the door was closed, Wencang leaned back in his leather chair.
“He’s a good field commander, Chen,” Wencang noted as he stared at the roof. “I would have put his name for promotion above the other untested commanders for replacing you as commander of the unified-MRAF in case the both of us are…what’s the word for it?”
“Deposed?” Chen offered. Wencang laughed.
“I will take it. Yes, when both of us are deposed. But as it stands, my recommendation now might actually doom that man rather than help him. He might find himself alongside the same brick wall as us!”
“Let his operational record speak for itself,” Chen suggested. “If Punitive-Dragon succeeds, it will be all the feathers in his cap he will need to survive this war.”
“Indeed,” Wencang agreed. He leaned forward from his chair and rubbed his eyes with both hands. Perhaps the tiredness of two weeks of war was catching up with him, he thought. Or maybe it was the whiskey. Either way, his own mortality was flashing before his eyes as he wondered his fate and that of his colleague sitting across the room.
“Chen, how did we get here? What went wrong with our plans? What more could we have done to ensure victory instead of this sinking quagmire towards nuclear war?” Wencang muttered. Chen did not respond because the question was rhetorical and self-reflective. “My friend, did we do our duty towards the people of China?”
To that Chen did reply: “Yes. We did.”
NEW-DELHI
INDIA
DAY 12 + 1400 HRS
“You think it will s
end the message?” the PM asked. The voice of Air-Marshal Iyer came through on the phone a few seconds later:
“Yes sir, I think it will. If the rumblings we keep hearing are true then this is an effective counter-force response.”
“But I want to make clear that we suspect this might happen. We really don’t know for sure, do we?” the PM continued. Chakri stared in silence across the conference table. After a second he leaned towards the phone:
“Iyer, I want to emphasize that what the Prime-Minister stated is true. We expect a Chinese ballistic-missile attack in response to our own. And we expect them to restrain it to conventional warheads only. But we can never be sure what’s happening over there in Beijing. We want to be prepared, of course, but not appear overly aggressive and provoke a preemptive strike. Do you get what we are trying to say?”
“I understand sir,” Iyer replied and continued: “but I want to add that the fact that Chinese nuclear missile forces are already deployed in northern Tibet and it is not really something they are attempting to hide. They know that we know they have nuclear-tipped missiles deployed there. Now we do have eyes over them via our long-range aerial drones that I requested the air-force to transfer over to us for now. But even so, if they launch first, we will have minimal response time to launch a counter-force attack. That is, if we are not fully deployed as well.”
“But we are deployed, aren’t we? I mean our missiles are?” the PM asked in confusion.
“Yes sir, the land-based ballistic-missiles are,” Iyer responded calmly. “That part is correct. But I want to get our triad deployed right away to ensure that Beijing knows that nuclear-cards are off the table. That said, I don’t think it will be considered escalatory in any sense of the word.”
“But you are not sure!” the PM retorted.