‘Prescience? Yeah, sure. Prescience, aka clairvoyance. It’s the belief that certain people can see the future. It’s all hokum, of course, but there’re any number of astrologers and fortunetellers ready to fool the unwary and turn a buck while they’re doing it.’
‘I did not say prescience, I said pre-Science. And while the predicting of the future in your world may be hokum, here in Venice it is a respected science, the precepts of which have been verified both experimentally and mathematically. It was preScience that spawned the study of statistics, of gaming theory and of quantum philosophy.’
‘You can predict the future?’
‘To a very high degree of accuracy – so accurate that preScience is what made Venice the rich and powerful city-state it is today.’
‘Okay, I’m impressed.’
De Nostredame sniffed Norma’s attempt at sarcasm aside. ‘And so you should be.’
‘But I’ve gotta say, Professeur, that I find it difficult to believe, in a world as screwed up as the Demi-Monde, that anybody can accurately predict anything.’
‘Actually, Mademoiselle, it is because the Demi-Monde is – as you so charmingly put it – so screwed up that we are able to predict the future. PreScience is based on the realisation that the post-Confinement Demi-Monde – sealed as it is behind the impenetrable Boundary Layer – is a closed system immune to outside influences. And as most aspects of the Demi-Monde – the quantity of commodity inputs, population growth, the climate and the length of the seasons, for example – are fully predictable, then it is a world which is largely Deterministic in nature.’
‘Deterministic?’
‘Determinism is the belief that every event is caused by a preceding action, and hence by understanding the cause we can predict the effect. But here in the Institute, preScientists such as Nikolai and myself have taken this notion further and have sought, by mathematical analysis, to extrapolate the present into the future. The result of this analysis is termed Future History.’
‘So you’re telling me that you’ve made fortune-telling into a science?’
‘A very exact science, Mademoiselle.’
Norma wasn’t inclined to give up. ‘Ah, c’mon, it’s impossible to predict the future. Individual free will negates any and every attempt to anticipate how men and women will act.’
‘A persuasive argument – persuasive but wrong.’ De Nostredame held up his hand to forestall Norma’s protests. ‘The reality is that ours is a Clockwork Universe, mechanistic in its workings with every event planned by ABBA. The fabric He/She uses to make our future is woven from the threads of the present.’
‘A Clockwork Universe?’ asked Norma.
‘A phrase coined by the Covenite polymath Pierre-Simon Laplace. Laplace has speculated that as ABBA is omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent, then He/She knows everything right down to the movement of every atom in the whole Kosmos. What he said was, and here I quote, “For such a Deity nothing is uncertain and the future, just like the past, will be present before its eyes.” Laplace contends that an all-knowing ABBA is able to foretell the future with as much certainty as He/She knows the past, and as a consequence the Demi-Monde functions with a clockwork certainty. Hence the tag: a Clockwork Universe. We, with our analytical engines – our DAEmon – have attempted to duplicate the working of this mechanistic universe and in this way we have come to know the mind of ABBA.’
‘This is nonsense,’ Norma protested. ‘For heaven’s sake, we can’t even get the weather forecast right.’
De Nostredame frowned. ‘Of course we can get the weather 4Cast right! Weather 4Casting is taught to first-year students of elementary preScience.’
Norma cursed herself. She had forgotten for a moment that she was in the Demi-Monde, where ABBA – the ABBA back in the Real World – had made things like the weather a little more orderly than where she came from. ‘Okay, I’ll concede that the weather is predictable but there are still thirty million Demi-Mondians each of whom is possessed of a free will which makes their actions anything but predictable.’
With a sigh, de Nostredame turned to Kondratieff. ‘Nikolai, as my pipe seems to be in need of some extensive maintenance, it is time for you to elucidate the mysteries of preScience as it relates to free will.’
Kondratieff stood up from the table, walked over to the window and gazed at the banks of machines chuntering away in the hall beyond. He looked what he was: an academic. His clothes were worn carelessly and he had a far-away look in his eye, but for all that there was some steel about him: this was one man who wouldn’t flinch from doing what he thought was right.
‘Very well, then let me start at the beginning. Ever since I was a child, I have had two obsessions: mathematical patterns and history. And the DAEmon has given me the opportunity to indulge these obsessions by enabling me to make a forensic study of the economic data held in the Venetian Bourse. Analysing these data, I searched for a pattern, a template, a symmetry about what is happening in the world. The results of this enquiry led me to the discovery that Demi-Mondian history is possessed of a peculiar sinusoidal aspect. History, by my calculations, moves in a regular and very predictable manner, ebbing and flowing like the tides in the rivers of the Demi-Monde. And this being the case, the past is a perfect blueprint for the future.’
‘That sounds a little far-fetched,’ muttered Norma.
Kondratieff shrugged. ‘The affairs of the Demi-Monde move in wavelike patterns, with events replicating themselves over and over in fifty-four-year cycles, these economic shifts accompanied by equally predictable patterns of war, social change, fashions … everything. This is the Deterministic shape of affairs that ABBA has imposed on the Demi-Monde. ABBA requires – demands even – that ManKind acts in a Deterministic manner … in a predictable manner. This is why the concept of free will that you propound so forcefully, Mademoiselle Norma, is wrong. The Demi-Mondian does not have free will, he or she only has the illusion of free will. But in the grand scale of things, each Demi-Mondian is governed by the macroDeterministic forces of history. Only Daemons – like you, Mademoiselle Williams – and their ilk have free will.’
‘I can’t accept that,’ interrupted Vanka. ‘Free will is HumanKind’s defining characteristic, the thing that separates HumanKind from the animals.’
‘The exact nature of free will, Monsieur Maykov, has been the subject of profound, though mostly irrelevant, debate by philosophers, theologians and scientists for many thousands of years. This debate is now closed. The mathematics of preScience demonstrates, unequivocally, that this wave pattern of history is as inevitable as it is predictable, and hence that HumanKind is Deterministic in nature. By the employment of an army of actuarialists and computators’ – Kondratieff indicated the rows of clerks beavering away in the hall – ‘we are able to evaluate, to an absurdly high degree of probability, the likelihood of specific events occurring – be they wars, blood shortages, famines, the height of men’s hats or how far above their ankles the hems of women’s dresses might stray. This certainty negates the claim that HumanKind possesses free will.’
Kondratieff took a long steadying breath before continuing. ‘Put rather crudely, Determinism is the view that all current and future events are predetermined by events which have gone before. Or else, from a more whimsically theological aspect, as ABBA is an all-knowing and all-powerful deity, He/She must know in advance what is to come and how each and every individual will act as they go through life. This is the concept we refer to as Intelligent Design, the concept which underpins the Clockwork Universe.’
Now it was Norma’s turn to frown. Kondratieff was right: ABBA – meaning the quantum computer, ABBA – presumably did know how each and every Dupe in the Demi-Monde would act, and therefore the Demi-Monde was Deterministic. Whilst the Real World might be so chaotic as to be unpredictable, the Demi-Monde was not. Here in the Demi-Monde everything was based on an Intelligent Design, and the Intelligent Designer was ParaDigm CyberResearch’s quantum computer, A
BBA.
‘Intelligent Design,’ Kondratieff continued, ‘encapsulates the supposition that all actions within the Demi-Monde are foreseen and prescribed by the omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent deity we call ABBA.’
Or rather an omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent quantum computer called ABBA.
‘And it is through the use of the analytical engines that comprise the DAEmon and of my own HyperOpia program that we have come to know the mind of ABBA and to understand the Intelligent Design that lies behind the functioning of our world. This is the triumph of preScience. We have made the future predictable.’
‘But why? To what end?’ asked Vanka.
Having finally brought his pipe back into working order, it was de Nostredame who answered. ‘A stunningly naïve question, if I might say so, Monsieur Maykov. Surely the answer is obvious: if we know what the future will be, we are able to manipulate the present in order to alter that future. We will be able to make what Nikolai and I call Temporal Interventions.’
‘But so what, Professeur de Nostredame?’ enquired Vanka. ‘What has all this got to do with Norma … with me?’
‘Because, as I have already alluded, there are InDeterminate elements loose within the Demi-Monde, namely Daemons. Daemons are diaboli ex machina. And one of these Daemons, the Lady IMmanual, threatens to bring great suffering to the Demi-Monde.’
‘How?’ asked Vanka.
De Nostredame took a pensive puff on his pipe. ‘To answer that, I must digress for a moment. My studies have shown me that politicians, even ones as sure-footed as Doge Catherine-Sophia, seem, as a class, to possess a blind spot which I refer to as Temporal Myopia. Temporal Myopia is the inherent feature of all politicians, being the inclination to deny reality if that reality is politically uncomfortable. Rather than making the correct decision, they are inclined to opt for the decision which offers the least degree of political discomfort.’ De Nostredame smiled. ‘Doge Catherine-Sophia is gripped by Temporal Myopia, and as such is pathologically unable to do what is necessary to protect the Demi-Monde … to protect the future. She has been confronted by the need to accommodate the unpredictable actions of a Daemon, and to do this she has convinced herself that because the Daemon – the Lady IMmanual – seems to fulfil all the prophetical requirements of a Messiah, she therefore is the Messiah.’
‘Why would she do this?’ asked Norma.
‘Convenience, Mademoiselle,’ de Nostredame replied airily. ‘Politicians dislike surprises, and get a little obstreperous when something unexpected – something InDeterminate, like a Daemon – comes along to muddle up their plans. The Lady IMmanual being a Daemon is by her very nature InDeterminate, but because she appears to have fulfilled the prophecies regarding the Messiah, the instinct of the Doge is to make her less InDeterminate by giving her the mantle of Messiah. As far as the Doge is concerned, the Lady IMmanual is the surprise she knew about in advance.’
‘So?’ challenged Norma.
‘The calculations made by Nikolai and myself indicate that, because of the Miracle of the Boundary performed by the Lady IMmanual, it was impossible for the Doge to believe she is not the Messiah; it is an idée fixe. Nothing Nikolai or I could have done or said would have changed her mind. By coming to this decision and acting upon it, the Doge has increased the probability that the Beast will conquer the Demi-Monde. This is, of course, an unacceptable OutCome, so unacceptable that we have been obliged to take an unprecedented step: to meddle with Future History. We have to make a Temporal Intervention.’
‘That sounds to be a risky occupation,’ observed Vanka.
‘It is very risky, Monsieur Maykov, and believe me, it is not something we do lightly. It is, after all, a treasonable offence, but needs must when the safety – nay, the very existence – of the Demi-Monde is at risk.’ De Nostredame took another comforting puff of his pipe and then turned to Norma. ‘Nikolai went out this evening not to rescue you from the clutches of Machiavelli’s secret police but to preserve the life and freedom of the Messiah. By our calculations, we have concluded that if the Messiah lives – if we can help her avoid being destroyed by the Beast – then she has a chance of saving the Demi-Monde from the Beast.’
‘Now I’m totally lost,’ complained Norma. ‘Ella wasn’t with us tonight, so how can Docteur Kondratieff have come to the bar to save the Messiah?’
‘For the simple reason that Ella – the Lady IMmanual – isn’t the Messiah. You are, Mademoiselle Williams.
‘Me!’
‘Yes, Mademoiselle Williams, you.’
‘That’s ridiculous. I’m a nobody in this world. Fuck it, I don’t even want to be here! Anyway it’s Ella who’s been doing all the fancy stuff. She’s the one performing all the miracles and saving people.’
De Nostredame nodded. ‘I agree that superficially the Lady IMmanual appears to meet the criteria of the Messiah rather better than you do. But we have recently uncovered a relic, Loci’s Column, which dates from the pre-Confinement era of the Demi-Monde and which has led us to re-evaluate your candidacy as the Messiah. Let me give you an example. The text of the prophecy contained on this relic tells us that we will “Know the Messiah, by the One who is Two” and “By the One with no Shadow”. I have spoken on this matter to Sister Florence, the foremost Auralist in Venice, and she has confirmed that you, Mademoiselle Williams, have two auras, whilst you, Monsieur Maykov, rather perplexingly, have none.’
‘I don’t have an aura!’
‘Apparently not, Monsieur Maykov, and before you attempt to quiz me on this matter may I say that no one – not even the great Sister Florence – has an explanation for this anomaly. You are, and here I quote some failed Anglo politician whose name escapes me, a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The only thing we are certain of regarding Vanka Maykov is that by his very presence the prophecy contained on the Column is fulfilled.’
‘But—’ began Vanka.
‘I am sorry, Monsieur Maykov, but why this should be, I have no idea. The mysteries of Auralism are quite beyond me. But what I do know is that the prophecies go on to advise that we will “Know the Messiah, by the Living Blood”.’ Here he turned to Norma. ‘And through your own admission, Mademoiselle, you are a Daemon. We are also advised that we will know the Messiah “By the Time of Miracles she portends”. Not by the miracles the Messiah will perform, but by the miracles the Messiah will portend. The final part of the prophecy states that the Messiah will be “Powerful but Unnoticed. Pure but Wilful”.’
‘Well, I can corroborate the “wilful” part,’ muttered a distracted Vanka.
Norma ignored him. ‘But surely these prophecies could just as easily refer to Ella.’
De Nostredame nodded his agreement. ‘That is so, Mademoiselle, that is so. But there is much more written on the Column than this. You may not be aware that in Demi-Mondian mythology the Dark – the evil side of Nature – is controlled by a deity known as Loki, or Loci as he is referred to on the Column.’
‘Yeah, we have the same character in the Real World.’
‘A very remarkable but a very useful coincidence. Now both Nikolai and I have long held the belief that the Beast – Loci’s representative during the End of Days – will be Lilith reborn. Lilith is, of course, the most reviled figure in Demi-Mondian mythology, the woman who destroyed the purity of the Vanir – the godlike Pre-Folk who ruled this world in ancient times – and provoked ABBA into sending a deluge to destroy VanaHeimr and to imprison the Demi-Monde behind the Boundary Layer. Now the Column gives us many useful hints as to the identity of the Beast. It quite clearly states that “In Lilith I was reborn”, and this single line gives us the tantalising suggestion that Loci and Lilith were one and the same, and that the Beast will be a woman.’
‘I don’t wish to sound obtuse, but so what?’
‘We also know that Lilith was a Shade. Oh, the Pre-Folk word for “dark” used in the poem is seemingly ambiguous, since it can be construed as either “wicked” or “dark-skinned”,
but I am sure that it encapsulates both meanings. When Loci wrote that Lilith was the “First of the Dark Women”, he was telling us that Lilith is a wicked Shade.’
As Norma sat there, she had a terrible feeling about what was coming next.
‘I think, my dear, you have probably guessed what I am going to say. The Lady IMmanual isn’t the Messiah, Mademoiselle Williams, she’s the Beast …’
‘… Lilith reborn.’
‘So what?’ said Vanka quietly.
‘HyperOpia predicts that, left unconstrained, there is a 98.75 per cent chance that the Lady IMmanual will, by the end of the coming Summer, emerge as a Demi-Monde-wide dictator and cause the deaths of seven million innocents in the process.’
‘I don’t believe it.’
‘Whether you believe it or not is irrelevant, Monsieur Maykov, the maths is irrefutable. Although she is a Daemon, and hence at the micro level her actions are InDeterminate, at a macro level we are quite confident about anticipating the effect of her manifestation here in the Demi-Monde. She met all the prophecies made by the Pre-Folk, who were perhaps the most able Future-Historians ever to have lived. By our calculations, the Lady IMmanual is the Beast. The consequential question was, of course, if the Lady IMmanual was the Beast, then who was the Messiah? And the answer to that question, Mademoiselle Williams, is you.’
De Nostredame took a moment to tamp more tobacco down into the bowl of his pipe. ‘That is why the Lady IMmanual wants you dead, Mademoiselle Norma. She instinctively realises who – what – you are and knows that you are her greatest rival.’
‘But what about me?’ asked Vanka. ‘Ella’s ordered that I’m to be killed too and I’m no Messiah. Why’s she got it in for me?’
Rod Rees - [The Demi-Monde 02] Page 32