by Carlo Zen
Tanya had despised the Imperial Army control of the media as an incarnation of ineptitude, but hearing there isn't even a plan is just frightening.
"Y-you mean, there's no way to calm down this war frenzy?"
When she says it, the realization finally hits me.
I don't even need to recall the Hibiya incendiary incident. Even the winning side becomes intoxicated by success. Bismarck just had to take Alsace-Lorraine. Once Napoleon was too victorious, Talleyrand could advise him only so much.
...Apart from a major defeat, there's nothing worse than a major victory. That irritating-as-hell saying hits on an eternal truth.
It's just like the bubble.
Until the reigning fanaticism bursts, it will keep growing without end. If you tried to stop it, the reaction would probably be unimaginably fierce.
"...This is the worst. If we try to dampen their desire to fight, we could end up with bigger problems than the war."
"We don't know if that would happen."
"Colonel Uger, you'll have to excuse me, but I think rather than being optimistic, we need to be prepared as pessimists."
Even if it's annoying, it's a truth she has to convey.
The only ones who can avert their eyes from the truth are the fools who say they don't want to see a failure but then go racing to the bottom. Fools can only be scoffed at. It would be more fun to blow my brain stem out than be friends with them.
"The situation is unfavorable. The Empire is intoxicated by the delusion of victory, and meanwhile being swallowed whole by the mud on the front lines. The Empire's precision instrument of violence is decaying." So she declares, "Military matters are only a continuation of politics. They require a political solution... Could I have you suggest that to the higher-ups via General von Zettour for me?"
"All right. I'll talk to him."
"Great," says Tanya eagerly, but Uger continues in a subdued voice.
"But I'll say this: Don't expect much."
"May I ask why not?"
"It'll be impossible to make a move right away. Or rather, I guess I should say I can't get them to move."
Even without naming names, she catches his drift. Even if Zettour acknowledges the suggestion, it doesn't mean she'll get the dramatic change of course that she wants.
"Colonel Uger, I'm going to ask you straight up. Why are so many things being put off until later? Is it sabotage? Are there rebels inside the organization?"
"C-Colonel von Degurechaff!"
"It's fine... Actually, I finally just realized..."
Weiss tries to tell Tanya she's said too much, but Uger stops him with a sad smile.
"I'll say this as a member of the General Staff: The General Staff never envisioned embarking on foreign campaigns. The Imperial Army itself was designed only with mobile defense near the borders in mind." He scoffed. "The Empire didn't even have a plan ready for invading enemy territory. As a result, the army has been playing it all by ear on the battlefield. You could say that, since we can't fix it, we've simply been coping haphazardly."
"You mean we've only avoided total collapse due to the strenuous efforts of individuals in the field?"
"That's a harsh way to put it but accurate. I mean, the army's overall direction was so vague to begin with... I see. Once you put it into words, it really hits you how serious the situation is. This is awful..." He gazes up at the ceiling, a far-off look in his eyes. His shoulders appear dusty. Nothing more could make you understand how grave the situation facing the General Staff is.
As far as Tanya can tell, the Imperial Army and its organizational culture are all about playing it by ear. Or to come at the issue from another direction, they've gotten into the bad habit of handling things as they happen.
Even if it's a system that allows for incredible tactical flexibility, forgetting about strategy entirely is putting the cart before the horse. There's no way to win by being so reactionary.
If even the strategy specialists Lieutenant General von Zettour and Lieutenant General von Rudersdorf are limiting their roles to purely military matters, then the Empire essentially has no national strategy.
If the General Staff can't make proper use of its military victories, it'll end up like Hannibal.
They'll continue winning on the battlefield---with the caveat, until that one final battle that can't be undone.
Tanya's about to groan when Uger slings a follow-up attack. "This is a state secret, but I'm sure it's fine to tell you. It's about distribution in the east using the rail network. Since the General Staff doesn't have much experience making attack plans, it took a page from a certain book. Do you know whose?"
"Come to think of it, if we were doing the fundamental research on that, it's weird that I didn't hear about it. It's not from some cadet's homework or something, is it?"
"Close but no cigar. Well, actually you're right, in a way."
"Huh?"
The answer he gives her as she gapes at him is one she didn't expect.
"The fundamentals are from a joint research paper by the Republican Army General Staff and the War History Compilation Division called An Inquiry into the Logistics of Invading the Empire."
This fact he explains self-deprecatingly renders Tanya speechless.
It's not even from their own country. If the source weren't Uger, she wouldn't have believed it.
"I-is that true?"
The Imperial Army is so good at playing things by ear because it has done its homework. After all, in staff education at war college, everyone gets how to cope when the bottom falls out of your assumptions drilled into their brains.
Surely someone, somewhere is researching foreign campaigns.
...At some point, I'd acquired a bias that overestimated them.
"We couldn't use railroad operation theory optimized for interior lines strategy abroad." The words Uger spoke with a dry smile were shocking.
Even under suppressive fire by the Republican heavy artillery on the Rhine front, I wasn't this horrified.
"It feels like cheating. Of course, when you don't have the know-how logically, your only option is to use what you can."
"Seizing enemy equipment is one thing, but copying their plans is..."
"It had to be done. That's all."
They were forced to appropriate enemy research... Nothing proves the Imperial Army's assumption that they wouldn't need to conduct foreign campaigns more than that. It's utterly ridiculous, but basically they were an army that forgot about the concept of invading the enemy.
Horrifically, Tanya can now explain so many of her earlier feelings that something was off.
The handling of wintering in the Federation as if it had never been considered, the very belated formation of the Council for Self-Government, the reason it took so long for the military police to interpret and interview the prisoners---everything.
"...Well, I get it, then. So that's why everything is getting done at the last minute."
She never guessed that would be the reason.
When you think about it, this is like the stupidity of cramming for one night to take a test. It's a wonder they've done it so many times and not failed yet.
Given the results of their divide-and-conquer efforts in the east, no one would be surprised to hear it was the result of long years of preparation. Who would think a rush job could be so effective?
"So that means...General von Zettour's divide-and-conquer plan in the east is ultimately working due to extraordinary individual efforts?"
She asks because she can't believe it's possible. She expects Uger to laugh it off.
"That's right."
"Huh?"
His immediate answer sends a chill up her spine.
"So...so that means there's no clear plan? He's just doing it himself?"
"I understand your concerns... At present, Operations and Supreme Command both approve, but it's not based on solid strategic research."
It's a plan stemming from a single man's discretion.
<
br /> It's an individual's policy, not the organization's?
"Depending on how the situation changes, it's liable to be overturned fairly easily. The policy isn't very popular in Central."
She doesn't even wait for him to finish.
Tanya opens her mouth right away to respond. "Speaking from frontline experience, I can say that we absolutely have no other choice."
"It may be presumptuous of me to say so, but I think Colonel von Degurechaff is right." Weiss agrees with her immediately. There is no other solution possible for the east.
Though it may not be a popular policy, it's unlikely to change when it keeps the rear areas stable.
"Please convince the General Staff---by any means necessary."
"We're both just lieutenant colonels. That's a pretty tall order. If we at least had Colonel von Lergen... If he were here, it would be easier to talk to Operations."
"I heard he was sent to Ildoa."
"It must just be a coincidence this time, but...I suppose he'll be busy for a while. Although if I get the chance, I'd like to ask him."
"Thank you," says Tanya with a salute and nods at Weiss that he should leave it to Uger.
"...Also, I'd like to know what it's like in the field." As Tanya and Weiss straighten up, he bows his head to ask the favor. "Candid sentiments that can't be included with the official reports are extremely valuable. I can't lose sight of how things feel on the front lines. So please help me out."
His tone is sincere.
This is how a pro should be, not a naked emperor kicking back and relying on his subordinates to handpick intelligence for him.
His respect for the voices and experience coming from those who work in the field is a vivid expression of the health of the organization.
"Leave it to me. It'll be a thank-you for the real coffee. I'll provide you with the freshest lessons coming hot off the front lines."
"Please don't." Uger's supplication, I suppose you could call it, seems to Tanya like a murmur from the bottom of his heart. "What we get in the rear is so awful. The freshest stuff from the front line might be so disorienting, I get food poisoning."
"Better to have indigestion than go hungry."
"So I guess getting any deliveries is better than getting nothing? I can't deny that."
Uger's groaned conclusion is a sad truth. Just because someone is in a position to need to know what is happening on the front lines doesn't mean they have to weep with joy to hear the bad news. But neither can they close their eyes to reality.
"Whatever happens, let's do what we need to do."
"That's a crystal clear principle. All right, see you again."
In the end, Tanya has to conclude...no matter how much you sugarcoat it, the reality you don't want to see is still there.
In the case of the Empire, it's right before its eyes.
If fate is inescapable, then don't we have to embrace it?
[chapter] V Portent
THE END OF MARCH, UNIFIED YEAR 1927, FEDERATION TERRITORY
An old wise man once said that as long as you're prepared, your chance will come. But also that there's no reason for heaven to help those who don't help themselves.
In other words, assertive action is how you seize a chance, and it must be performed boldly.
Principles were always easier said than followed.
What Drake the marine magic officer knew was how to come to terms with a reality that determination alone couldn't fix and wage war---even if the amphibious exercises connected to the plan up north, conducted with the assistance of the Federation Army General Staff, were a mess.
Though they were kind enough to allow them to observe exercises that should have been a military secret, it took only a moment to become disillusioned.
Drake had learned all too well how reckless war in a sky without air superiority was. Ever since the Imperial Air Fleet had advanced into former Entente Alliance territory, enemy air forces dominated the sky there. The bigger problem, it should probably be said, was their skill.
The Imperial Air Fleet was scheming to sever the route between the Commonwealth and the Federation, and Drake had thought of them as a superbly talented crew. Had thought because he now had the latest information.
Having participated in the mission to guard the route, Drake could say with confidence that Intelligence's work wasn't perfect, either. If he were to give his impression after actually fighting them, he would say that "superbly talented" didn't even come close to describing the enemy. That was their first mistake.
The reality was far beyond anything they had imagined. Assume the worst---ha. They had to accept that the enemy was "extremely dangerous."
Even a ship like the RMS Queen of Anjou, which was fast enough to outrun enemy submarines and had a pile of marine mages like him and his troops as direct support, still got hammered.
The second mistake was underestimating the imperial submarine fleet. Submarines didn't stand out much, but they were a serious threat. The Federation Navy seemed to think there would be only a few, but that was analysis given by guys who didn't seem to completely understand how to patrol for subs.
It was no wonder he was worried one would make it through.
All those things together made the problem clear.
Apparently, when planning on landing ground forces in former Entente Alliance territory, they took into account the potential for a fierce counterattack from the Imperial Army, but that was already too optimistic. Sadly, that was nonsense spoken out of ignorance about what an opposed landing entailed.
It was awfully amateurish to not even consider the possibility that they wouldn't have a chance to land. Perhaps the Federation Army's attitude of not wanting to think about it was tied to their domestic situation.
I want things to be fine.
So they're probably fine.
In other words, things are fine.
The mood ruled by this baseless argument was vaguely terrifying. An optimistic outlook meant relief, which was their worst enemy. Why didn't anyone question the madness of this plan?
The real cowards were the ones not saying what needed to be said and refusing to think about what needed to be considered. Drake cursed the heavens in spite of himself. Looking back on his military career, he was scared that the whole thing could be summed up as cleaning up after amateurs and optimists.
At least he didn't need to tiptoe with his brother-in-arms. He felt he should tell him.
"I can't understand those tortoises who thought this would work," Drake admitted to Colonel Mikel in a low voice. "...I mean, there aren't even any landing crafts! This is a bit too novel for my liking. Is it fair to call this a leisurely wartime yacht cruise paid by taxpayer money?"
"Gimme a break," Mikel responded in a suppressed voice and spoke of the Federation Army's internal situation. "Apparently, that was us doing the best amphibious operation we can."
His whisper was an almost robotic voice devoid of emotion. Drake couldn't help but feel that he was suppressing exhaustion and resignation.
Still, even if it made him obnoxious, he had to say it. "I realize this is impertinent and tactless, but please tell me: Wouldn't your prerevolution navy have been able to present something better given even a single day?"
"That's not the sort of thing to ask a mage. It's not my jurisdiction, and I don't know anything about the ocean... I heard the guys who would have known are gone now..."
"All right." Drake broke off the conversation before it veered into more dangerous territory. He didn't want to get into it, and he didn't want Mikel to think he was trying to interfere in Federation administration.
The Federation Navy's circumstances were old hardware and brand-new software.
New might sound pure at first, but it basically meant empty. The shell of the old navy was all that remained, and the predreadnought battleships stuck in the past just barely displayed what you couldn't quite describe as majesty.
With aerial mages, planes, and even submarines
having come into their own as fighting forces, the Federation Navy was fairly underpowered for contemporary maritime battles.
"Having witnessed your exercise, I'll give you my conclusion out of duty as an officer from an allied country... Charging into an area where the enemy has control of the sky like that would be suicide."
"Yeah, we don't have air superiority... The premises of the exercise were too different," Mikel answered in a lifeless voice---he must have known. Any soldier who had to weigh the outcome of Operation Tea Party would reach the same conclusion.
"Raid with a carrier strike group and both sides will be hurting. Can you hope for the same amount of air cover without a carrier?"
"Our navy doesn't have aircraft carriers..."
"...All I can say is that it's reckless."
On their minds were the results of the "stress test" operations the Commonwealth Navy had carried out some time before.
Commonwealth carrier task forces had conducted strikes that also functioned as recon-in-force against various objectives in former Entente Alliance and former Republic territory, but the results were terrible.
In every area, imperial forces had magnificently repelled them. It was even exposed that their capital ships were weak in anti--air combat.
"We can't expect imperial defenders to be second-rate. This is a pain."
They were taken completely by surprise and were in such a sorry state that they had to send up training units to intercept...is what was officially announced in praise of their heroics, but to anyone who could read between the lines, the Commonwealth Navy's shock was clear.
Imperial fledglings got caught up in an encounter battle, and Commonwealth marine mages had to withdraw because "time had run out"? The fact that trainees the marines expected to be unstable could maintain what counted as combat-ready quality in the Commonwealth exemplified the base quality of the Imperial Army's soldiers.
Naturally, they had anticipated facing tough resistance in the west.
Given that in the west the Empire was facing the Commonwealth mainland, they weren't surprised that the western air fleet and the reserves assigned there would be strong.