by Carlo Zen
Look at the matchup of Xiang Yu and Liu Bang. There hasn't ever been an army that could win a hundred of a hundred battles. There's absolutely nothing to say that the Imperial Army can keep going.
Problematically, public opinion in the Empire doesn't want to acknowledge that truth.
You don't even have to wonder why. This is the Empire, which hasn't once been defeated since its founding. We're the ones who force people to surrender, so they've never dreamed that we would be forced.
What happy brains they have. Utterly irritating is what it is. Meanwhile, various countries, the Empire among them, are shedding too much blood on the battlefield.
It's literally no use crying over the blood spilled across the earth. How do we process rampant triumphant nonsense like How can we justify these sacrifices besides the sweet nectar of victory?
"Not coming up with the aim of cutting our losses will probably be fatal."
The blowback against trying to avoid losses and steer clear of defeat by insisting on not taking on risk is massive. Just look at the Japanese economy. It's clear that what we call the Lost Twenty Years or whatnot will soon be called the Lost Thirty Years.
Or another good example is the various countries who shrank from reform in their late stages.
"How many people actually understand that we're sacrificing all these troops' lives and the nation's budget just so we can cover the opportunity cost of maintaining the status quo?"
Reform is essentially something you're driven to when system fatigue reaches its limit. It's the same as surgery.
When a noninvasive procedure won't make it in time, you're forced to make the surgical choice known as reform. It's valid to use anesthesia to dull the pain, but if the patient is frightened of the surgery itself, they will eventually die.
AROUND THE SAME TIME, IMPERIAL CAPITAL BERUN, GENERAL STAFF OFFICE WAR ROOM
The Federation Army appeared to be planning a major counteroffensive all along the main lines.
By the time he was getting reports from all sorts of places in the east that the Federation troops were showing signs of preparing for an all-out counterattack, even Lieutenant General von Rudersdorf, who usually boasted unwavering determination, was fed up.
"...We literally just fought off their limited winter offensive."
The doubt he expressed in a somewhat suspicious voice was reasonable. From what the General Staff could judge, the first-string units of the Federation Army had been committed incredibly recently.
"Where are they getting that kind of manpower?"
"Don't they grow on trees?"
"Even with no fertilizer?"
"Apparently, they're using this cheap, effective stuff called nationalism--- although we would have preferred they use the inferior Communism."
It was a fact that made him want to click his tongue: The Federation Army was transforming from an organization driven by Communism to one driven by nationalism.
As far as Lieutenant General von Zettour could see, the change was already irreversible. The Federation Army was growing rapidly more useful as an instrument of violence... It was a different animal from the one appraised in prewar intelligence. You could even say they had solidarity.
"So the Communists are even overcoming their failures in agriculture?"
"I'm sure imports are a significant contributor." Rudersdorf furrowed his brow in disgust and spoke again only after falling silent for a few seconds. "In which case...perhaps we should lift the restrictions on submarine warfare."
Even the man who made the proposal didn't really want to consider that option.
Zettour's old friend continued in a slightly tired voice. "If we can't count on the Unified States and other neutral countries to stick to the definition of neutrality strictly and fairly, then we may not have a choice. What do you think?" When he asked, his expression was as bitter as if he had been forced to drink vinegar.
They had considered this difficult problem a number of times. Supporting belligerents' logistics while proclaiming one's neutrality was practically joining the way. It did seem possible under the law to consider them enemies and make them the target of commercial raiding.
But Zettour couldn't approve of an aggressive plan like the one Rudersdorf was suggesting.
"...That would be much like flipping the switch on a time bomb."
The difficult problem on everyone's minds in the General Staff Office was simple enough to define.
Would isolationists abandon their principles of nonintervention?
If so, the answer was simple. All the isolationists would come together to intervene in continental affairs.
If they weren't going to abandon their principle, things were a little more complicated. They would choose to continue the impressive feat of maintaining their isolationism while also intervening, but then it was a matter of how long.
"Unified States ships are supporting the Federation and Commonwealth supply lines. From an operations planning standpoint as well, we can't just leave them to do as they please."
Rudersdorf didn't even need to start with Listen to cut in. It was only natural to feel ashamed at being helplessly unable to strike the enemy's supply lines.
And it was natural given his position as the lieutenant general charged with directing operations that he would emphasize it... But Zettour had to argue back, "If all they're doing is assuming a logistics role, let's just consider it an endearing gesture of support and leave it at that."
As the one fighting the intense supply line battle, his opinion could only be to stay practical, albeit in a resigned way. Numbers that send both feelings and principles out the window didn't make it acceptable to directly antagonize the Commonwealth's supporter, the Unified States.
Zettour raised his cigar to his mouth in irritation and grumbled, "It's better than the worst case, anyhow."
"Zettour, you think they might actually participate directly?"
"I have no choice but to say yes. My esteemed friend General von Rudersdorf, have you forgotten? They've already invested too much in this war."
Unrestricted submarine warfare could end up being an unexpected boon for the Unified States. They would manipulate the enraged monster of public opinion and use it as an excuse to happily intervene. Zettour even suspected that there was a chance they might orchestrate an incident themselves.
"If it's just a risk, then..."
"If there was a risk, they've already taken it into account and invested too much." Zettour was promptly dismissing Rudersdorf's wishful thinking. "Rudersdorf, think of it from a logistics perspective instead of operations."
Cutting your losses was an option you could take only when it was possible to minimize your losses. He was sure of that as a logistics man.
The Unified States had already bet too much to fold now.
"Once you've built the production line and finished the product, you can't pretend it doesn't exist. If they've poured this much into military supplies and the product doesn't sell, it'd be a tragedy."
The military supply industry was an extreme case. Frankly, it was hard to get the supplies necessary for wartime stockpiled during peacetime. Makers were generally nervous about overproducing, so to get them to expand their lines, it was necessary to guarantee them contracts.
...If you don't intend to use the supplies, it's difficult to increase production.
"They're building aircraft carriers as a fix for the economy, you know!"
"...You mean fear of unemployment could trigger them to join the war?"
"I doubt it's that simple. It's probably more likely a dense tangle of their economic situation and their unwillingness to accept the Empire's supremacy."
Zettour may not have been an economist, but the scale---building aircraft carriers as an economic policy measure---shocked him.
The Unified States Navy fleet was already blessed, but to undertake the intensive labor of building carriers as a public works project in an attempt to stimulate the economy was... Anyone fr
om the Imperial Navy, where they were having a hard time simply covering the High Seas Fleet's maintenance costs, would probably collapse in shock.
But they were discussing reality.
"I suppose it makes sense." Rudersdorf quietly nodded.
Zettour wasn't very happy even if he was able to obtain understanding, but...the secret to healthy coordination in the General Staff had to be making sure they were on the same page.
"Yes," he said in a tired voice. "Money speaks the truth. And it's flowing not toward us but toward the Commonwealth."
"...So ultimately, our victory would go against all their interests."
"Sadly, that is correct." As he affirmed Rudersdorf's complaint, Zettour thought, No lender wants to handle loans that can't be collected, and cutting losses has its limits. Those are both eternal truths.
"There aren't any lizards who want to kill themselves." Lizards cut their tails off precisely because it's the tail. They wouldn't ever try to abandon their bodies. "Therefore, while unrestricted submarine warfare may seem effective at a glance, with a bird's-eye view, you can see that it would make things worse.
"What a bizarre tightrope to walk."
One hand is shaking theirs to stave off participation in the war, while the other is persistently slapping their hand trying to supply interested parties with war goods.
In other words, there was a contradiction.
"Zettour, do you really understand what you're saying? It's one hell of a tightrope. Even circus veterans make mistakes, you know."
"I'm well aware of that. But it's our only choice. We at least have to try to keep them from joining immediately."
After all, war meant advancing toward the future into obscuring fog.
His personal answer when lost was to wait in place believing that help would come.
Sadly, there was no rescue team for saving countries. If he wouldn't have believed that, he could see them boarding a leaky ship and getting swallowed by giant waves.
A nation that couldn't stand on its own feet had no future.
"If it's to find a way out of this, shouldn't we try every means possible?"
If you tried everything, then whoever only readied "everything" was at fault. Once you'd been entrusted with a nation, it was no longer a question of having options.
Look at Rudersdorf as he grins.
This unpleasant operations man knows what I'm trying to say. This is our only choice, Zettour thought with a wry smile and changed the subject. "As luck would have it, we've received an offer."
"I want to hear your opinion. Do you think we can make use of those scammers in Ildoa?"
"Hmm." Zettour hesitated for a moment, thinking.
The Ildoan intelligence officer Colonel Virginio Calandro had passed along a proposal from General Igor Gassman.
We want to mediate peace. It was a tricky offer.
"I read Colonel von Lergen's report... To cut to the chase, I don't know."
"You don't know? There you go being vague again," Rudersdorf spat in irritation. Well, it was understandable.
Considering Ildoa's geopolitical circumstances, their ability---demonstrated via an exercise (which was actually a mobilization order) that it could occupy the southern part of the Empire---had to be acknowledged.
As they spoke, Ildoa was already working out a plan to sell them to the highest bidder.
The chance that Ildoa joined the war on the side of the Empire wasn't zero, but as long as the chance of it joining as an enemy couldn't be dismissed, the Imperial Army was forced to keep some of its troops chained to the border.
Compared to the total number of troops, of course, it wasn't that many. But it was still enough to take on an entire country. Giant garrisons twiddling their thumbs. If I had that big of a force..., someone from Operations couldn't help but dream.
"Let's get our facts straight."
When his esteemed friend nodded with a grunt, Zettour enumerated their circumstances and began to think.
"As long as an opportunist exists, they can be approached by both sides. The chances are fairly good that they'll stay on their parasitic, bloodsucking path as a neutral power."
The premise Zettour presented was the simple truth. He was saying that Ildoa's policy of neutrality was purely for the pursuit of profits.
"Whenever they mobilize, we're forced to draw troops off the eastern front. From that perspective, Ildoa's attempts to gain the upper hand are painful but also quite crafty."
"There's no doubt about that." The way Rudersdorf snapped was an indication of how severe the situation was.
It would never happen, but just think about how many reinforcements could be sent to the east if they could confirm that Ildoa wasn't going to join the war. It could have been a turning point for the whole continent.
It's really a shame was everyone's frustrated thought.
"Under the circumstances, there is something we should think about." Zettour prefaced his remark then dove in. "As far as I can tell, it's not the country but the Royal Ildoan Army that is making logical judgment calls, at least relatively speaking."
"Oh? You're planning to consider Gassman's suggestion? But those guys...even though we're allies...! I doubt they can be trusted."
Rudersdorf's furious argument was probably representative of public opinion. Problematically, he was right. Anyone aware that diplomacy wasn't a world that turned based on correctness alone would be at wits' end.
Zettour swallowed a sigh and made his point. "I can't deny that, but their proposal makes sense. At least, it's balanced enough that all the principal warring countries would have to pay attention."
"...It's true that we can't reject it flat out."
Rudersdorf's face said he wasn't happy about it, but Zettour figured he should feel lucky to have his agreement. Ildoa's proposal was infuriating, but there were some parts that couldn't be completely denied. Just the fact that he had managed to get through to him gave him hope.
"So Gassman's proposal from the Royal Ildoan Army...at a glance, it might not fail to be a first step toward peace."
"That's an awfully roundabout way of putting it. Spit it out, Zettour. What's the issue?"
"Problematically, the Ildoans are so good at calculating risks and rewards that they might cause an accident."
Rudersdorf gaped at him in confusion. "W--- You're still beating around the bush. Explain what you mean!"
Under his stare, Zettour reluctantly replied. "They're probably just as scheming as they were before the war. In other words," he had to snarl.
What he was about to say was animal logic. Going further, it meant the defeat of the glory of intelligence and reason.
But as a General Staff officer, he had to say it anyway.
"Calm rationality is no longer functioning properly in any of the warring countries. We've all woken up the monster called public opinion."
In total war, a country's citizens participated far more than in any other type of war to date. Whipped into a frenzy and then whipped up some more, the heated emotions rushed on as a torrent to wage war with tremendous energy.
Fighting this far had already taken a huge amount of energy, but it was so much energy that it threatened to sweep away even raison d'état.
After all, not only politicians but even the military had cast themselves into the maelstrom of passions and hysteria.
The greatest error was confusing a beautiful, brave fighting spirit for levelheaded tactical judgment. Once that happened and the violent emotions grew frantic, it was no easy feat to calm people down.
He could convince the General Staff officers. That was encouraging news. The question was whether that explanation would work on public opinion.
"I really wonder how much the Ildoans understand."
The Kingdom of Ildoa had been watching this total war from the sidelines.
They probably saw the follies the Empire was committing and had been waiting for their chance to mediate.
"No matter how correct
the logic, it means nothing if people don't accept it..."
"I know that." Rudersdorf nodded, though he formed a fist and brought it slowly down onto the table. He stared at his fist for a while but then uncurled it, though he didn't seem satisfied. "...It's hard to know whether to hit them or shake hands, huh, Zettour?"
Zettour was about to agree with him---yeah---when he suddenly realized something. From the tone of his voice, the place he was going back and forth about hitting was...
"Did you draw up a plan for that?"
"We have an emergency response plan... The main idea entails mobile defense along the border and then mounting a major invasion to push back their lines. It wouldn't be impossible." He smiled and the confidence filling him was real... Zettour had known Rudersdorf for a long time. He wasn't one for bravado.
If he said it was doable, it was probably doable.
That meant it was probably all right to assume it might be possible to teach those self-styled heroes pretending to be shrewd observers a harsh lesson.
But the remark also made Zettour furrow his brow. "You want to go further than border defense?"
"Affirmative. Recall that the topography there makes it difficult land to protect. We advance out of tactical necessity. I don't want to continue exposing our tender nether regions to an enemy state."
Rudersdorf's stubborn comment made military sense. The only problem was that it made only military sense.
This type of reasoning seemed liable to forget about politics, which was dangerous. Zettour felt like he needed to say something even if it wasn't strictly called for. He had a good understanding of his esteemed friend's personality, but he couldn't shake the feeling that sometimes he was a bit too bold.
"Escaping forward, huh? I suppose it's fine if we can break through. But if we end up an impulsive salient, we might end up driving ourselves to an early death with fear."
"I understand your concern."
It was best to always keep hold of the initiative. In the fight against the Republic, escaping forward worked because it was unexpected.
The Kingdom of Ildoa was probably already prepared for a preemptive attack or whatnot. You would have to be awfully full of yourself to even call a sneak attack missing the "sneak" a gamble.