by Andy Cooke
The Fourth Lectern
© Copyright 2014, Andy Cooke. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction. Names, characters, places and incidents are either the product of the author’s imagination or are used fictitiously. Several well-known people make appearances in these pages, but this is a work of fiction and the events, personalities and conversations are taken from the author’s imagination. There is no implication that the real-life people corresponding to these characters would act or react similarly.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
To all of those in the Alternate History forum who accompanied me on this story, for their consistent and unwavering encouragement, feedback and support.
With special thanks to Tom Black and Jack Tindale for beta-reading, advice, and editing above and beyond the call of friendship and for freely providing the cover and other illustrations.
Political map provided by George Rear from a template by Dr Thomas Anderson.
To my wonderful wife for putting up with (and encouraging) a husband who was frequently present in body but not in mind, and to my children: for you. Now and always.
Preface
PART ONE: The Campaign
CHAPTER ONE
CHAPTER TWO
CHAPTER THREE
CHAPTER FOUR
CHAPTER FIVE
CHAPTER SIX
PART TWO: Election Night
CHAPTER SEVEN
CHAPTER EIGHT
CHAPTER NINE
CHAPTER TEN
CHAPTER ELEVEN
CHAPTER TWELVE
CHAPTER THIRTEEN
PART THREE: The Aftermath
CHAPTER FOURTEEN
CHAPTER FIFTEEN
CHAPTER SIXTEEN
CHAPTER SEVENTEEN
CHAPTER EIGHTEEN
CHAPTER NINETEEN
Afterword
Excerpt from ‘The Fifth Lectern’
Preface
Please note that while the characters, locations and circumstances in this story will be familiar, this is a work of fiction. All of the characters are fictionalised versions of their real-life counterparts – this work is not meant to suggest that they would act, react, think, feel or speak in the way portrayed.
It is best to think of the characters in this story as being inspired by the people in the real world who happen to share the same names and similar positions.
The Fourth Lectern is a novella – a short novel. This form of story is rare today, due to printing costs making shorter publications less cost-effective, but in e-book form, it is feasible once more. The aim is explicitly to whet your appetite sufficiently to buy the sequel, The Fifth Lectern (as well as to tell an entertaining story on its own). The latter is a full-sized novel which follows on from the end of this tale, but the story herein is complete by itself.
PART ONE: The Campaign
CHAPTER ONE
From The British General Election of 2010, by Kavanagh and Cowley
The 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom ended with a result that surprised nearly everyone after a roller-coaster ride of a campaign. Conservative candidates were dropped due to very unwise statements, the famous “Bigot-gate” episode occurred just before the third debate, even an Elvis Presley walk-on had its part to play - but the pivotal incident happened nearly a month before polling day.
It is commonly acknowledged that the debates were crucial. Not just what happened in them – although that’s been widely commented on – but the very fact that they happened at all. And, more importantly, their composition.
Before the first debate, the standing in the opinion polls had been coming closer, and on the eve of the event itself, they stood as follows (poll of polls):
Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 32%
Liberal Democrats: 18%
No-one had any inkling of what was going to happen. An obscure meeting at the home of the BBC, intended to simply close down a minor administrative point, was about to make the campaign more interesting than anyone could have foreseen.
***
Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ). 30 Millbank, Thursday, 8th April
“Yup. Okay. Uh-huh.” Andy Coulson’s uninformative responses into his phone were starting to annoy Steve Hilton. He was trying to concentrate on the report from the last US presidential debates. It seemed clear that Cameron simply had to look into the camera during the debates as if addressing the viewer at home – those actually attending the debates were a tiny fraction of the total audience.
“Yeah. Seriously? Why the hell do they even need to bother? Uh-huh.”
Hilton glared across the table at Coulson, but he wasn’t even looking back. If Andy was going to break the silence, he could at least give some hint about the subject of the conversation.
“Hah. Yeah, they wouldn’t like that! I suppose it kind of makes sense, but I still don’t see why they should even bother. Just go ahead and bloody do it.” Coulson finally caught Hilton’s eye. “Listen, mate – I guess I should go. Thanks for that, but I reckon you’re right – it’s not gonna make any real difference. Cheers.”
At last Coulson hung up. Hilton raised his eyebrows.
“Oh, it’s nothing major, Steve,” said Coulson. “Just one of my moles at the Beeb.”
“Okay,” said Hilton. “What was it about, then?”
“Just the debates.”
“Just the debates? Andy, they’re pretty major from where I’m sitting!”
“No, it’s not that.” Coulson shook his head. “Just administrivia stuff. The Beeb are a bit angsty about justifying why the Lib Dems get a lectern in them, that’s all.”
Another voice chipped in. “That is actually kind of important.” Osborne had quietly walked in, Cameron trailing behind.
“Yeah, George, I know. Don’t worry – that’s not in danger. It’s the Scots Nats complaining about Salmond not getting in on it as well.”
“Of course he’s not in on it,” said Cameron. “The SNP are only standing in the Scottish seats. It’s mathematically impossible for them to get a majority.”
Coulson nodded. “Exactly. And if they did add them, then Plaid would have an argument as well, and even bloody Galloway.”
“So what’s the problem? Just say that it’s us, Labour, and the Lib Dems. Argument over.” Osborne shrugged. “I don’t see why they’re making a big deal over it.”
“Yeah, that’s my stance as well, but you know the Beeb. They want to get it locked down. They’ve had something like a four hour meeting over this and they’re just about to publish their criteria to the press.”
“Is it even up to them?” asked Hilton. “It’s an OFCOM thing, isn’t it? And they can’t make Sky or ITV...”
“The OFCOM rules are just guidelines, really; no-one can stop a broadcaster from adding someone. And the BBC want to look completely fair and impartial,” said Coulson.
“Yeah, right,” said Osborne, with a snort.
“I know. Anyway, they reckon that if they make the running, ITV and Sky will have to fall into line. Especially if they manage to make a ruling that ends up with exactly the same lineup as before.”
“Okay. So – small war, not many killed?” asked Osborne.
Coulson nodded. “They agonized over going with ‘Restricted to Parties standing in a majority of UK constituencies’ for a while, but they realized that was completely stupid. We know the Greens are going to get close to that, if they’re not there already.”
Osborne nodded. "UKIP already are, and even the BNP could…”
“That’s what stopped t
his in its tracks,” said Coulson, interrupting. “Apparently some bigwig kept going on about ‘shutting the door on Alex Salmond simply to open it for Nick Griffin’.”
“But they couldn’t just say ‘parties with MPs’, could they? Because that goes back to the SNP, Plaid, Galloway…” said Osborne, shrewdly.
“Not to mention the Northern Ireland lot. Hell, what about Sinn Fein?” said Hilton.
“Easy – say only parties with, say, fifty MPs,” said Osborne. “That’s us, Labour and the Lib Dems straight off the bat.”
Coulson sighed. “Guys, we’re recreating their entire debate, you know? They came up with that as well. But what about when the Lib Dems had only forty-some MPs? That could easily happen again. The Beeb wouldn’t want to set a precedent excluding them on these grounds.”
Cameron nodded. “You could take that all the way down to twenty or so MPs – think of the Lib Dems in ‘92, or the Alliance in the Eighties.”
“Even the Libs in the Seventies,” said Osborne.
“Exactly. And if we get down to fourteen or so MPs as a criterion… well, the SNP got to 11 MPs before, so where exactly should the line be drawn?” asked Coulson.
There was a thoughtful silence for a few seconds, broken by Coulson again. “So they said having any MPs at all was a qualitative difference from having none.”
“Which gets us right back to…” began Osborne, but Coulson interrupted again.
“So you tie the criteria together. The form of words they finally settled on was that ‘The debates would be restricted to the Leaders of Parties standing in the majority of constituencies with existing representation in the House of Commons’.”
There was another pause as the others all worked around the implications of the statement.
“That – that does actually exclude everyone apart from us, Labour, and the Lib Dems,” said Cameron at last.
“What if Galloway manages to get a load of extra candidates?” asked Hilton.
“Not happening,” said Osborne, with confidence. “They’re looking at a dozen or so at most, at the moment. Getting an extra three hundred or more isn’t going to happen.”
“What if the BNP breakthrough in Barking after all? Could cause trouble for next time,” asked Cameron.
Coulson shook his head this time. “Nope. I’ve got feedback from the ground; Griffin’s moving backwards. He’ll get nowhere.”
“UKIP? Could Farage beat Bercow?” asked Cameron.
“I don’t think so. UKIP just aren’t getting any traction.”
Cameron shrugged. “Okay – I guess you’re right. No real news after all. The BBC have spent hours coming up with a statement that there will just be the three of us after all, but at least it made them happy. Now, what was it you wanted to tell me about the cameras?”
***
“Bob, do you want to get re-elected?” The voice was sharp.
“Of course I do. But I can get re-elected on my own.”
“What – as part of the Green Belt Party?”
“That’s ‘Save Our Green Belt’. Seriously, it’s an issue here…”
“Bullshit. You’ll go down and you know it.”
“Anyway – don’t you have your own little Party now? The Trust Party, or something like that?”
“I’ve brought myself – and the other candidate – back into UKIP since the announcement. I’m taking over as Treasurer – helped by a nice chunky donation.” The voice chuckled. “The Golden Rule – he who gives the Gold makes the Rule.”
“But I didn’t really agree with…”
“Doesn’t matter.” The first voice interrupted again. “I don’t care what you do after the election. You can go your own way again if you want. But right now, I want you to put your party affiliation down the way I tell you – and you’ll find yourself with a fully funded campaign and part of a tide of rising support. You have to announce yourself as being our MP before Monday, when Parliament dissolves. We get into the debates, and we can change a few minds.”
“I don’t know…”
“I do. You’re not the only person I’ve got to talk to today – I’ve got to talk to the Party leadership. I’ve got to get someone else appointed to the deputy leadership position and then convince Pearson to step down. He’d get roasted in the debates and I think he knows it.”
“Who are you going to get to step in?”
The first voice chuckled again. “Think about each of the other party’s unique selling points. We can cover two of them, but Brown’s got a hell of a lot of economic credibility, right?”
“True.”
“So we have to get our own economic credibility.”
***
BBC News, Friday, 9th April
“Following the surprise resignation of Lord Pearson from the leadership of UKIP, the newly appointed deputy leader, Tim Congdon, has been announced as their new leader. He has stated that he will seek democratic endorsement from the membership of UKIP after the upcoming election. Dr Congdon, a noted economist, was a member of the so-called “Treasury Wise Men” from 1993 to 1997, advising the Government on economic policy during the recovery from the last recession.
Following the announcement from Bob Spink, MP for Castle Point, that he is a member of UKIP and standing for re-election as a UKIP MP, Mr Congdon has insisted that UKIP meet all the criteria to be represented in the forthcoming Prime Ministerial debates, which start next Thursday. Lawyers representing UKIP have already been in contact with the BBC, ITV, and Sky News…”
CHAPTER TWO
Mandelson rubbed the bridge of his nose. “Let’s have a short break,” he called out.
Gordon Brown looked irritated as he stepped away from his lectern. “Do we have to? I thought I was getting into it quite well that time,” he said.
Mandelson searched for a diplomatic phrasing. “Well, you were certainly more animated, but … I fear you were relapsing into another statistics blizzard.”
“But if I’m right and the facts support me, surely I should…”
The argument continued through the five minute break until Brown suddenly changed the subject completely. “What about Congdon?” he asked. “Shouldn’t we have someone playing him in these practices?”
“Ah,” said Mandelson. “That’s a good point. I had thought the broadcasters would resist the pressure, but apparently the BBC folded this morning and Sky, after wavering, probably believe it’ll boost the viewing figures. ITV haven’t announced yet, and they’re the first hosts, but I now think they’ll let him in as well – they’re isolated now.” He shrugged. “It’s a wild card for us, but we’re behind so if anything, I think we’re looking at benefitting from it.”
Brown smiled. “Let’s see how the Tories like having their vote split.”
***
Granada Studios, Manchester, Thursday, 15th April
“Look at the bloody camera, David,” hissed Osborne under his breath. He grimaced as Cameron again turned to directly address the audience member who’d asked the question. He nearly jumped as a soft voice addressed him from over his shoulder.
“At least Gordon has the excuse that he’s got difficulty spotting which camera is on.”
“Peter – you startled me.” Osborne glanced around. Nearly everyone else in the small observation room was paying far more attention to the candidates on the stage than to them.
Mandelson sat down next to Osborne. “So – how do you think it’s going?” he asked.
It sometimes surprised outsiders to the political sphere that adversaries could be as friendly as they were. Oh, certainly some enmity existed – there was no love lost between Brown and Cameron, for example. Or Brown and Osborne, for that matter. Mandelson, however, had usually had at least cordial relations with most of his opponents and even been down
right friendly with some. The ‘friendly enmity’ between Osborne and Mandelson had seemingly expired after Osborne had broken the unwritten code of confidence between them two years earlier by leaking a conversation in which Mandelson had criticised Brown. Mandelson had struck back by leaking the details of the surroundings of that conversation – on board an oligarch’s yacht - and the resulting furore had hurt Osborne more than Mandelson. They’d hardly spoken since then. Perhaps Mandelson was indicating a desire to move on?
“It’s not going as well as I’d hoped,” said Osborne, frankly. “Brown’s every bit as poor as I’d expected, though – and what’s with all the ‘I agree with Chris’ stuff? He’s said that nearly every question.”
Mandelson’s lips thinned. “We thought it might be a good idea. Love-bomb the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Gordon has taken it a bit further than may have been ideal.”
Osborne smiled. “You could say that. Would you have done the same thing if Clegg had won the Lib Dem leadership? If they hadn’t extended the deadline for the Christmas post, I understand Clegg had enough votes in the bag to win.”
“Of course,” said Mandelson with a shrug.
“Even though he’s an Orange Booker?”
“Doesn’t matter,” said Mandelson, wincing as Brown trotted out the offending phrase yet again on the stage. “The general public aren’t as caught up in the minutiae of how our various tribes divide internally.”
Osborne sighed. “I don’t think it’ll matter, though. Congdon will be the story now.” He paused. “Oh, Christ. What’s he arguing now?”
Mandelson leaned forwards, his eyes bright, listening for a moment. “I think David is trying to say that your elected Police Chiefs are a sensible idea, but the UKIP proposal for elected Police Chiefs is ridiculous. A ‘courageous’ argument, really.”
“Damn it. The thing is – Congdon’s not actually done that well,” said Osborne.
“I know what you mean,” agreed Mandelson. “He is somewhat wooden in places, certainly. But he definitely knows his stuff on the economics front and he was very much alive at the start.”