by Andy Cooke
As Coulson drained the dregs of his latest coffee, a bleary-eyed Jonathon appeared at his elbow. “Newton Abbott just came out of recount,” he reported, smiling. “Ours by forty votes from the Lib Dems.”
That left the Lib Dems on forty five seats. Seventy one seats yet to declare.
CHAPTER TWELVE
30 Millbank, 0730 - 1200
Coulson needed a break. They had installed a set of showers in the basement of CCHQ, and he felt he could do with a blast of hot water on his skin. With a nod to Hilton, he headed down for a shower.
When he got back, he was feeling considerably refreshed. “Any news?” he asked as he walked back into the ‘battle room’.
“A few safe seats held all round,” said Hilton. “Oh, and Truro & Falmouth just went to a recount.”
“That’s a pleasant surprise,” observed Coulson. “I know it’s on the target board, but it’s pretty low down.”
“Lib Dem-held as well, so harder to get,” agreed Hilton. “They’ve done pretty well tonight, so...”
“Apart from Lembit,” said Coulson, with a smirk.
“Yeah. Then again, they’re also trying to defend Manchester Withington against Labour and that’s also going to a recount.”
There were two more Labour holds in safe seats as eight o’clock approached – Ealing Southall and Manchester Central. Then, just before the hour, two seats finished their recounts: St Albans and Brigg & Goole. Both were good news for the Conservatives - Anne Main, despite being badly hit by the UKIP surge, had scraped back in. Brigg and Goole had been stolen from Labour by two hundred votes.
There had still been no official words from Number 10. Coulson was aware Brown had arrived back in London in the last hour and called a meeting of his inner Cabinet, but no intelligence had leaked out.
Coulson glanced at the BBC news. There were some demonstrators on College Green holding placards for “Fair Votes.”
Well, maybe they’ve got a point, but Labour are hardly going to sacrifice a system which was seeing them head towards three hundred seats with a shockingly low share of the vote, and those represented in this room are likely to be – well – fairly conservative about the entire matter.
More London seats were declared. Labour held Streatham, Hampstead & Kilburn, Vauxhall and Leyton & Wanstead. Ealing Central & Acton went to a recount. Lewisham East was another Labour hold and Watford went to the expected recount. The earlier overexcited young staffer eagerly informed Coulson that it was still practically a four way dead heat and anyone could win the recount.
Swindon South finally completed its latest recount; Labour had held on against the Conservative challenge by the skin of their teeth. In Walsall, UKIP had nearly taken it from Labour, but the incumbent MP had held on nearly as narrowly.
In a flurry of recount declarations, York Outer fell from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives, as did Dorset & Mid Poole, but Labour managed to narrowly retain Croydon Central. The incumbent MP, Andrew Pelling, had stood as an Independent after being thrown out of the Conservative Party. Coulson was sure his decision to stand had been crucial in denying a near-certain Conservative win in that seat.
“Northampton North is in, and we’ve nabbed it!” announced a tired Carl. “It’s now a four-way marginal - we got just over a quarter of the vote and still won. The Lib Dems are close enough behind to have a good chance next time - and they’re fourth!”
Things were moving slower now – even with the recent flurry of recount declarations, only thirteen seats had been called in the past hour. Cameron had returned from his nap, flanked by Osborne.
“Time for some brainstorming?” asked Coulson.
Hilton looked at him disapprovingly.
“What’s wrong?” asked Coulson with a sigh.
“You know it’s ‘thought showering’ these days,” he said.
“Okay...” said Coulson
Just – why? It seems to just imply a more eco-friendly version of brainwashing to me, he thought to himself, but wisely didn’t say out loud.
Cameron closed the door behind himself. “Okay. Remember what we were talking about earlier. We want to make sure Brown stays in charge of Labour. We don’t want them getting any benefit from changing Leader. Ideas?”
Osborne looked thoughtful. “Brown can be a contrary sod, so we have to look like we’re pushing him to leave.”
Hilton was unconvinced. “It’s a bit of a gamble, though - what if he does what we’re pushing him to do?”
“A bit late to worry about that, Steve,” said Coulson. “Remember the YouTube clip we sent out?”
“That was just a bit of fun.”
Cameron broke in. “George is right. The harder you push Brown, the harder he pushes back.”
Osborne was frowning. “We can’t be too obvious, but we also can’t be too subtle.”
Cameron tilted his head. “What if…”
***
By ten o’clock, they decided they had a plan. Cameron was expressionless as he left the building to put into motion the little they could do.
As he left, Coulson automatically scanned the board.
Four Labour holds – all in the East End. Hmm. Not unexpected. Ah – two outright gains. I see we’ve pinched Milton Keynes North from Labour and Cornwall South East from the Lib Dems, then.
He looked down at the recounts box on the board. No fewer than seven seats had finished their recounts and declared. Labour had held on to Stevenage, Cardiff North, Brighton Kemptown and Bristol North West, the latter becoming yet another four-way marginal. The Conservatives had taken Hove from Labour and Camborne & Redruth from the Liberal Democrats, and Labour had just held off the Liberal Democrat challenge in Sheffield Central.
The main screen, showing the BBC News feed, cut to the view just outside CCHQ.
“Good morning,” said Nick Robinson. “I’m here outside Conservative Campaign Headquarters, where David Cameron has told us he wants to make a short statement.”
Cameron gave him a practiced smile – confident but not cocky. “Thank you, Nick. I’d like to take this opportunity to call upon Gordon Brown to accept the verdict of the electorate. We haven’t won, but it is indisputable that he has lost. He has lost his majority. He has lost the vote, although the boundaries and the system we use will ensure he has more seats than us. He has lost the mandate of the people of the United Kingdom. He has lost the moral authority to govern.”
“Regardless of whether or not his Party manages to trade its way to stay in power, he must accept that he is the problem and not the solution. We need a strong Government and I accept there will be a period in which we politicians will need time to find out what is the most acceptable solution. I strongly suggest he look within his own Cabinet for a replacement for the short term whilst we all seek the longer term solution in the interests of the Country.”
Perfect, thought Coulson. There’s no way the paranoid lump will step down now.
As midday closed in, there was still no response from Number Ten. Labour holds in Walthamstow, Brent North and Poplar & Limehouse took them to the milestone of 300 seats.
Right. It’s twelve o’clock, and that’s as good a time as any to sum up where we stand. The Lib Dem recounts have finished – Teather held on by a gnat’s whisker, but they’ve lost Truro & Falmouth to us and Manchester Withington to Labour. Oh – and I see they got really close in Bradford East, but a miss is a miss. And … Ealing Central & Acton has finally declared. Ooh. Another nail-biter. A close one-two-three spread over a few hundred votes – but Labour held it. At least we’re second for next time. So: Labour on three-oh-four, us on two-three-seven, so David should be safe, the Yellows on forty-six, UKIP still only two – shame that … Coulson couldn’t resist a self-satisfied little smile.
One Green, six SNP, three Plaid, that Doctor bloke in Wyre Forest again, eight DUP, four Sinn Fein, th
ree SDLP, that impossible Alliance result, and Sylvia Hermon.
Only 33 seats left to declare, and one of those won’t be for another three weeks.
CHAPTER THIRTEEN
30 Millbank, 1200 - 1800
As lunchtime passed, the constituencies that had decided to delay their counts until the Friday morning started to report in – along with the few outstanding night-time seats that had had multiple recounts and irregularities. The one seat that Coulson had been most concerned about – Bethnal Green and Bow – was retaken by Labour from RESPECT. Coulson felt a twinge of relief – Labour might be the opposition for the Conservatives, but RESPECT were another ballgame altogether.
There was relief in CCHQ as Norwich North declared – it had been won in a by-election and had now been converted into a full general election gain after a quick bundle recount. Watford, he learned, had gone to a fourth recount.
As Coulson was drawing up a new grid for the post-election world, Buckingham was declared. He glanced over at the two staffers who had squirreled away the bottle of champagne earlier with a half-smile, but they were to be disappointed.
Well, our half-formed hope of a Farage/Congdon split in the Commons has just bitten the dust. Never mind; at least the media are crediting Bercow’s win to the Tory column for the moment.
There had been a series of holds from each of the main three parties before another close result was called. At last the Fermanagh & South Tyrone result was final – Sinn Fein had held on by a mere four votes. As Coulson shook his head, the eager young staffer caught his eye and waved. The Watford result was finally being declared. The sound was turned up on the main screen; the agent on site had apparently lost mobile phone signal.
“…Ian Brandon, Green Party, eight hundred and eighty five votes.
Sal Brinton, Liberal Democrat, thirteen thousand, four hundred and thirty three.
Graham Eardley, UKIP, thirteen thousand, four hundred and seventeen.
Andrew Emerson, BNP, six hundred and ten.
Richard Harrington, Conservative Party, thirteen thousand, four hundred and thirty nine.
Claire Ward, Labour, thirteen thousand, four hundred and twenty five votes”
Coulson had lost track. All those “thirteen thousand, four hundreds” had thrown him. Who had won? The eager young staffer had thought ahead and jotted down the numbers. He looked up and pumped his fist. “We got it!”
“… I therefore declare Richard Harrington…”
Coulson closed his eyes for a brief second. That one would count as a bonus.
The staffer was shaking his heads in disbelief. “It was twenty two votes between first and fourth! We were only six votes clear of the Lib Dem.”
After another trio of safe seats reported in – two for Labour and one for the Liberal Democrats – another target came up. It was Morecambe & Lunesdale, but Labour held it.
Then one of the last target seats was finally declared – Dudley North. In the end, the Conservatives had fallen four hundred votes short of the Labour incumbent. Unfortunately for Labour, they’d been overtaken by two hundred votes by the UKIP candidate. The words “UKIP Gain” finally flashed across the screen again.
Still – just three seats. They’ve got to be gutted.
The final target seat – Lancaster & Fleetwood – declared and was a Labour hold. One more safe Labour seat and two safe Conservative seats declared and the General Election was finally over, apart from the delayed election in Thirsk & Malton left.
Labour are only ten seats short of a majority – Brown’s going to be holding an awful lot of cards now, damn it. We could really have done with him falling another 15 seats shorter – even if they’d gone to the Libs or UKIP. As it stands, I can’t see a feasible Coalition opportunity. A Coalition of us plus the Lib Dems and UKIP (assuming we could get them both into the same tent) would still fall ten seats short of Labour on their own. Hell, even if the DUP and Alliance came on board (and I, for one, would not like to have to rely on the DUP), we’d still fall short. We’d need Dr Taylor and Sylvia Hermon to get past them.
Coulson pursed his lips. Even with their discussions earlier, he must have still been hoping deep down they could cobble together some sort of last-ditch victory. There was no chance of that now. Osborne’s plan was going to have to do.
As the afternoon wore on into evening, some news finally arrived from the Labour camp. Labour would be setting up Coalition talks with the Lib Dems the following day, in Admiralty House, in Westminster. Meanwhile, Cameron had had an exploratory phone call from Danny Alexander asking if he’d like to discuss potential options. Cameron had given a positive reply, but it seemed obvious to Coulson that the Liberal Democrats were simply planning to use the possibility of a pact with the Conservatives as a threat to beat more concessions out of Brown.
There didn’t seem to be anything he could do for the time being. He checked his watch. If he hurried, he could get back to his flat in town in time to catch the six o’clock news in peace.
***
From The British General Election of 2010, by Kavanagh and Cowley
“The final results (less the delayed election in Thirsk and Malton) were as follows:
Labour: 315
Conservative: 249 (250 according to most of the media, but that included the Speaker)
Lib Dem: 52
UKIP: 3
Greens: 1
SNP: 6
Plaid Cymru: 3
IKHH: 1
DUP: 8
Sinn Fein: 5
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
Independent (Hermon): 1
In terms of votes and vote shares, the results were:
Conservatives: 8,339,716 votes. UK vote share: 28.1%. GB vote share: 28.8%
Labour: 8,135,755 votes. UK vote share: 27.4%. GB vote share: 28.1%
Lib Dems: 5,736,704 votes. UK vote share: 19.4%. GB vote share: 19.8%
UKIP: 4,949,614 votes. UK vote share: 16.7%. GB vote share: 17.1%
Note: GB-only votes shares have been quoted as well as UK-wide vote shares for comparison with opinion polls, which sample only mainland Great Britain. Although the Conservatives came first in terms of vote share, they finished 65 seats behind Labour.
In terms of records broken: this was the lowest number of votes for the Conservative Party in 80 years, and their lowest vote share in any election since the Great Reform Act of 1832 (elections prior to that date are not comparable). The Labour Party had fewer votes than any election since 1935 and it was their lowest vote share since 1918.
Seats that changed hands (taking into account boundary changes) were:
LABOUR GAINS:
Blaenau Gwent
Chesterfield
Enfield North
Manchester Withington
Bethnal Green & Bow
CONSERVATIVE GAINS:
Battersea
Aberconwy
Vale of Glamorgan
Tamworth
Leicestershire North West
Derbyshire South
Dover
Dartford
Harlow
Crewe & Nantwich
South Ribble
Romsey & Southampton North
Crawley
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South
Hereford & Herefordshire South
Dudley South
Montgomeryshire
Rossendale & Darwen
Redditch
Swindon North
Stourbridge
Great Yarmouth
Burton
Colne Valley
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Winchester
Dorset South
Chatam & Aylesford
Reading West
Gillingham & Rainham
Richmond Park
Portsmouth North
Rugby
Milton Keynes South
Newton Abbott
; St Albans
Brigg & Goole
York Outer
Dorset Mid & Poole North
Northampton North
Milton Keynes North
Cornwall South East
Hove
Camborne & Redruth
Truro & Falmouth
Norwich North
Watford
LIB DEM GAINS:
Eastbourne
Redcar
Solihull
Wells
Berwick-upon-Tweed
UKIP GAINS:
Castle Point
Forest of Dean
Dudley North
PLAID CYRMU GAINS:
Arfon
GREEN GAINS:
Brighton Pavilion
ALLIANCE GAINS:
Belfast East”
PART THREE:
The Aftermath
CHAPTER FOURTEEN
BBC News, 8 May 2010
“…the discussions between the Labour and Liberal Democrat negotiating teams are expected to continue tomorrow. The 70-minute discussion at Admiralty Arch, Westminster was described as “amicable” by a Liberal Democrat spokesman and “constructive” by Labour. No further details have yet been released…”
***
St Stephen’s Tavern, Westminster.
8:30 pm, 8th May
It can be difficult to find St Stephen’s Tavern if you’ve never been there before. Even with accurate directions – just down a bit from the Clock Tower towards Whitehall and across the road – it’s still strangely elusive.
Unless, of course, you had been there before. Jonathon crossed over the cobbled street next to the pub on his way down from Whitehall and turned into the front door of the old, renovated pub without breaking stride. He ignored the stairway in front of him and stepped down to his right into the bar. He scanned the crowd – no luck. Phil was obviously upstairs.
After ordering, and receiving, his customary pint of cider, Jonathon trotted up the staircase and promptly spotted Phil in a cubicle in the back. He smiled inwardly. Sitting down next to him, he murmured “Do you want some kind of spy codeword or something?”
Phil jumped. “Christ, Jon – don’t do that!”
“We’re not spies passing on secret messages, mate. We’re a couple of old friends who just happen to work for different political parties. You’re not doing anything wrong.”