by Andy Cooke
“Why do you think you’ll succeed where she failed? If people won’t do it voluntarily, does that mean you agree the Labour way of legislating for everything – imposing targets here, pushing the State forwards there – is the way ahead?” Fox asked.
“Christ, no!” said Cameron. “We’ll nudge. Make it easier to volunteer, or put things forward. Get the legislation out of the way. And then do whatever nudge tricks we can to make it attractive to contribute. Once the juggernaut is rolling, it’ll take on its own momentum – but we have to get it moving. That’s what she didn’t know.”
Fox remained silent.
“I need you, Liam. On side and helping. I want you to go through the UKIP manifesto and pull out bits that march well with our one from the last campaign. You know as well as I do that this ‘left-right’ thing isn’t a monolithic rule, but a blend of things from everywhere. Find me the libertarian aspects. Find me the ones that appeal to the populace without being reactionary. The commentators all said at first the only reason Congdon got support was the shock value – but we heard too much about his policies being listened to and getting traction. Find me a half-dozen or so that will ring the bells of right-leaners that didn’t go for us, without scaring off the middle ground of floaters. Help shape our next campaign for me.”
Fox kept quiet and then spoke. “Can we actually win, David? With UKIP in the field – is it going to be too much for anyone? I won’t lie and tell you I haven’t considered a challenge – I do think if we’d tacked more to the right, we’d have got more from Congdon – but all of the geeks I’ve spoken to tell me there’s plenty of UKIP votes we’d never have got anyway.” He put down his glass and looked Cameron straight in the eyes.
“Cards on the table – I hadn’t decided anyway. What use is it for me to become the Leader if I end up cursed to Opposition in any case? UKIP voters are going to be hard to pull away now anyway. I think I’d have done a lot better than you, but we’d never have got a majority under me, either. And now, we are where we are. Yes, I want to be Leader – but I’d rather take over when we’re in power and we’ve proved we’re not baby-eating monsters,” said Fox.
Cameron gave a half-smile. “Thanks for your candour, Liam. I’m not going to promise anything on the succession – that stupidity castrated Blair for so long it wasn’t even funny – but I’m obviously not going to continue forever. Yes, I would like George to have a strong role after me, but above all else: I. Want. To. Push. The. Big. Society. Will you give me a shot to see that?”
Fox barely hesitated. “A shot. Let’s see what happens after one more shot. I won’t promise more than that.”
“And I won’t ask you to – because I can’t promise anything back other than I won’t go on forever.”
“How do you see it working?” asked Fox.
“We nick the most populist policies and stances from UKIP that fit in with our overall theme. Wrap all up in a libertarian and classic liberal stance – we may need the Lib Dems on board. The Orange Bookers, anyway. We promise a referendum on EU membership. I’ve got Ollie Letwin doing the same with the Lib Dem manifesto – there’s already a hell of a lot of overlap between us anyway,” said Cameron.
Fox shrugged. “Maybe.”
“There is a plus side to this entire debacle with UKIP: they do pull votes from Labour where we can’t go,” said Cameron.
Fox snorted. “The Heineken Party. Refreshes the parts other parties cannot reach. With any luck, we can see the bastards panicking in their safe seats, in the North and in the cities. You have a plan to bring them down, then? Trigger a new election?”
Cameron tilted his head. “Not just yet. Let them run for a while. Even Balls will have to make cuts or declare national bankruptcy within the year. Let them continue paying the price of power for a twelve or eighteen months or so. Then we’ll try to bring them down.”
CHAPTER SEVENTEEN
14th May 2010
10 Downing Street. The Study
“Gus, I understand Her Majesty would like to know what’s going to happen, but if I don’t, how can she?” snapped Gordon Brown. He sighed. “Seriously, I’ll let you know as soon as it’s all sorted out – Ed’s just got back from speaking to Huhne, so maybe I’ll have something for you by eight o’clock.”
“Very good, Prime Minister,” said O’Donnell urbanely as he left.
Brown rubbed his eyes as he turned to Ed Miliband. “Ed – give me some good news, for God’s sake.”
“Well, there’s not much changed. Huhne is willing to offer a one year supply-and-confidence deal, as long as you reopen the Budget and take on board some of Cable’s ideas. He wants you to commit to eradicating the structural deficit within six years…” Miliband trailed off as Brown’s expression turned thunderous.
“Cutting! Cutting, cutting, cutting! That’s all the bloody Liberals keep talking about today! What have they got? An upjumped former economist from Shell who thinks he knows how to run an economy, plus some reheated Tory dogshit dressed up in an orange cover!” he snarled.
“Be fair, Gordon, the Greece situation has spooked the entire world money markets. Now that Standard & Poor have downgraded us, that’s all three of them. Maybe they’ll grade us back up if we…” Miliband was interrupted again.
“How old are you Ed?” demanded Brown.
Miliband blinked. “Forty, Gordon. Why?”
“You’re too young to remember much about the Thatcher years, aren’t you. You must have been a teenager when she finally went.” said Brown.
“Well, I was twenty.”
“Close enough. She ripped the heart out of this country, Ed. You never saw the poverty and despair from communities pulled apart by her economic policies. I will burn in hell before I let the Tories do it again.”
“I set up the tax credits system to let people climb out of that Tory hole. And they did. I’m not cutting that – ever! They say I sprayed public money around – but what the hell else do you do when public services are parched and withering? You spray them, that’s what! They want us to turn off the taps and wither them again – just when they’re most needed! Just when we’re keeping people in work in the public sector because the private sector is staggering.
“Our spending is all that’s keeping people above water. Do you really think it’s a good idea to cut lifebelts and life rafts when people are drowning? Do you?” demanded Brown.
Miliband felt slightly flat-footed by the sudden shift in metaphors, but manfully ploughed on. “Of course not, Gordon, but…”
“Of course not, Gordon,” mimicked Brown. “So don’t come to me and ask me to cut spending and pull away these poor bastards’ supports just as they’re trying to get back on their feet. Turn the economy back down just as it’s going the right way at last? Sod that! We can afford it. I don’t care what those ignorant rating agencies spout. I don’t care what those Orange Tories try to sell us. We’re going to keep spending enough to keep the economy coming up. We’re going to keep the tax credits, the benefits, the services – what the hell could I cut?” Brown breathed hard, and swallowed.
“Okay,” he continued in a more normal tone. “What are our other options? What will Huhne give us if we don’t jump to his economic whistle? Do you have to go back and ask again?”
Miliband shook his head. “No, I rather thought I might need to find out the contingency options,” he said with a half-smile.
Brown barked out a laugh. “That bloody predictable, am I?”
Miliband grinned. “Well – I’ve got to know you a bit. Anyway – if we reopen an Emergency Budget to cope with the changing European scenario… let me finish…” he said urgently as Brown’s face darkened again.
“…but we control everything that goes into it and only make any cuts we see as necessary and possible, but we show we’re taking it all very seriously…” he continued, as Brown sat back again, “…kick the ID cards into the long grass and follow up on our manifesto commitment for a
n AV referendum, they’ll give us a six month abstention deal on supply and confidence.”
There was a long silence. Finally Brown spoke. “That’s all?” he asked in a mild tone.
“Um, yes,” said Miliband. He was finding it impossible to tell Brown’s mood.
“Actually, that’s not a bad deal,” mused Brown. “I was thinking of reopening the Budget after the reshuffle anyway. The ID cards – okay, we can put those on hold. And I suppose we had the AV referendum in the manifesto anyway – and we don’t have to have it immediately. Say have it in just over a year – that’ll give them incentive to sign up to a longer deal after this one expires.”
Miliband breathed out. He hadn’t realised until then he’d been holding his breath.
“And best of all,” continued Brown, “it keeps that fucking Tory out of this building for a bit longer. Who knows – if there’s a leadership challenge to him, they could be in serious disarray by October. An uptick in the economy, UKIP staying strong, a Tory leadership challenge – a snap election could give us back that majority.”
Brown nodded to himself. “Yes – head back to Huhne and tell him we accept the shorter deal. Send O’Donnell back in – I should be able to give him something to pass on to the Palace now.”
CHAPTER EIGHTEEN
15th May 2010
BBC News
“… the pound dipped below parity with the Euro yesterday before the close of trading as the markets came to terms with the downgrading of the UK’s credit rating. A spokesman from BNP Paribas believes that the current panic in the markets is a temporary measure and once things have calmed down, the FTSE and the pound will both bounce back.
‘What you’ve got to bear in mind is that AA+ is actually a strong rating. It’s the same as that for Belgium, which is hardly a byword for risk and credit chaos. The ratings themselves don’t actually have any direct power – the interest rates charged by the markets on Government borrowing vary widely within those ratings and it’s not uncommon for a country with a triple-A rating to pay higher rates than one with a lower rating. The issue is that it’s become a talismanic thing for many investors, and it’s a cliché that the markets don’t react – they overreact.’
In other news, British Airways is taking legal action to try to stop the latest strike by its cabin crew. Business correspondent…”
***
Chris Huhne’s home in Clapham
“Well, I don’t see we’ve got many choices left,” said Clegg. “If they won’t budge on the economics, or give us anything else, and we desperately need at least a few months of stability, we’ve got to sign up to it. Right?”
Cable nodded, glumly. “I agree with Nick. It’s a crying shame – I really thought Labour would give us a lot more to work with. It’s just down to Brown – when he’s gone, they’ll probably be more willing to listen to reality.”
“There’s no chance they’ll let us supply anything for the Emergency Budget, David?”
David Laws shrugged. “Not while Ed Balls has anything to say about it. Only about half of their team give any impression of wanting the negotiations to work out at all. The rest seem to be looking more for problems than solutions.”
“Evan?” asked Huhne.
“I agree,” said Evan Harris. “They’re not looking to compromise at all. Balls definitely wants to go it alone. I think Ed Miliband is dubious as well. Harman seems to have no hope and is going through the motions.”
Huhne shook his head.
Laws chipped in. “Oh – by the way, I found out what triggered the downgrading.”
“Oh?” asked Huhne.
“I’ve still got a few contacts in the business, and one of them knows someone who works at Fitch,” said Laws
“Fitch – they’re the ones who downgraded us first, right?” asked Cable
“Yeah. Turns out someone at Fitch was talking ‘off the record’ with Charlie Whelan,” said Laws.
“Whelan – isn’t he out of the business of spin-doctoring now?” asked Clegg.
“Yes and no,” replied Laws. He’s still got all his contacts with Balls and company, and has no hesitation in using them. Apparently he told his contact at Fitch that Brown had found a way to stay on, Balls was going to be Chancellor, and he was going to pull back a long way from the level of cuts Darling had promised.”
“Why the hell would he do that?” gasped Cable.
“Search me. My only thoughts are either he wanted to get the news out there early to manage expectations…” started Laws.
“Dangerous game,” said Huhne.
“…or call their bluff on the repeated warnings of a downgrade, or drive them to downgrade us ‘for no reason’ before the lack of cuts became public knowledge…” Laws continued.
“Even more dangerous,” murmured Clegg.
“And stupid,” said Cable.
“…or it was just a cockup – Whelan boasting about still having links to power,” finished Laws. “And then Moody’s realised that Fitch had inside knowledge and – I think – had a contact in Fitch that supplied them with the same knowledge. Tie that to the slight level of paranoia they’ve all got because of not rating correctly before the crash, and a downgrade happens bloody quickly. Then S&P don’t want to be left out on a limb on their own.”
Cable chipped in. “Plus Fitch would probably be pissed off because they’ve repeatedly warned we could be downgraded if we didn’t take the deficit seriously, so they almost had to. Stupid move. Just plain stupid.”
“Well, there’s not much we can do about that,” said Huhne. “What I want to work on is making sure we don’t get burned by public anger for propping up Brown’s regime. The tabloids are going insane.”
“Going insane? Doesn’t that imply sanity to start with?” murmured Harris.
“The quality press aren’t much better, either. Look at this: ‘GERRYMANDER!’ is the headline from the Times. I’d understand if it was the Torygraph, but the Times is usually a bit better,” said Huhne.
“Still a Murdoch paper, though,” said Cable.
“The Indy and Guardian are ripping into us for not agreeing a Coalition with Brown. Polly Toynbee has ‘reliable sources’ telling her we’re being unreasonable. Us!” said Huhne.
“Maybe we should have got to her first?” suggested Laws.
“The Sun, Mail and Express are up in arms about the fact that Brown could survive. The only reason they haven’t used the Gerrymander headline is ‘cause their readers can’t cope with more than two syllables – three at the outside. They’re coming up with all sorts of contorted rationales against PR. The Mail keeps going on about postal vote fraud. The Sun rabbits on and on about boundaries and Scotland. The Express is simply incoherent with rage. The Mirror is downright smug” said Huhne, “if we prop him up, we could get the toxicity rubbing off on us very quickly. There was the ‘Vote Yellow get Brown’ theme – we prop him up, we just endorse that.”
“What choice do we have? I agree with Nick,” said Laws.
“What about a new election when it runs out?” asked Huhne.
Laws shrugged. “Well, we’re pretty much broke, but so is Labour. The Tories still have some in their war chest and UKIP have had the vast majority of their deposits returned, so they’re far better off than usual at this stage.”
“But if UKIP and the Tories are mostly focussed on poaching from each other…?” said Cable, encouragingly.
“I’ve been speaking with Mark Pack and the stats gurus,” said Harris. “Firstly – UKIP really did pinch votes from everyone, but it’s true the main losers were the Tories. The question is whether that will remain true next time – and whether there’s any more for them to lose. The anti-EU sentiment is obviously a main driver for them…”
“No shit,” muttered Clegg.
“…but that’s not just a Tory thing. In the South West, for example, it hits us. In the North, it hits Labour. The social policies are a
mix of libertarian and reactionary and can hit anyone. Probably us less than the other two, though. The ‘a plague on both your houses’ vote has been ours for a long time, so that hurts us disproportionately. Localised support structures are good for us, though – we’ve built them up over a long time and no-one can hold a candle to us on ‘pavement politics’,” continued Harris.
Huhne narrowed his eyes. “So …what’s the upshot?”
“The long and short of it is that we reckon the local campaign will be crucial. Incumbency and targeting, as well. UKIP totally failed in targeting last time and had only one incumbent – even this time, they’ll have only three. There’s a decent chance that if UKIP’s vote holds up, we’ll be the least affected. The worst affected could be the Labour vote, actually,” said Harris.
“The Labour vote?” said Cable, surprised. “Not the Tory vote?”
“The Tories have got far more money for campaigning and a bunch of new MPs building up incumbency. Those are a double whammy – loss of the personal vote of the old MP plus personal vote from the new one. Plus the fact that the Tories have had to funnel more resources into their safer seats over the past few elections, because that’s where the battle was. There are loads of Labour safe seats which haven’t seen a real fight in a very long time – and UKIP can threaten those in ways the Tories never could. Add to that the fact that the low-hanging fruit from the Tory vote has probably all been picked,” explained Harris.
There was a pause as the men digested that. Huhne pushed back from the table.
“So, in summary: for the country to get a little financial stability, we really, really have to prop up Brown for a few months, but we want to do it in such a way that we’ll have the least blame for it,” said Huhne.
There were reluctant nods from around the table.
“When it all falls down and there’s a new election, we’ll have a hard fight with minimal resources, but we expect Labour will have it worse,” he continued.