by Bobby Akart
But the threat is real. Consider the proposed use of weaponized smallpox as suggested by General Amherst. Is it not plausible that our enemies could weaponize Ebola? In the name of Jihad, is it not possible that one would contract the Ebola virus and enter the United States with the intention of creating a pandemic? The news outlets that raise these possibilities are labeled fear mongers and racists. But have you noticed that Amazon is selling out of particulate masks and other bio-hazard supplies? Fear is a great motivator.
What if?
Near Earth Object - SuperVolcano Eruption - Natural Disaster
Any of the above naturally occurring events could wreak havoc on our power grid, our atmosphere, and our climate. These are not the catastrophic events known only in science fiction movies. There is a historical precedent for them all.
A major earthquake along the New Madrid Fault in the central United States could collapse bridges over the Mississippi River. An earthquake of this magnitude along the New Madrid happened before in 1811 and 1812. The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is comprised of eight states: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee.
The Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) in southern Illinois and southeast Indiana together with the East Tennessee Seismic Zone in eastern Tennessee and northeastern Alabama, constitute a significant risk of moderate-to-severe earthquakes throughout the central region of the USA.
Studies indicate the Tennessee will incur the highest level of economic damage and societal impact. According to the Mid-America Earthquake Center, over 300,000 buildings would be moderately or more severely damaged, over 290,000 people will be displaced and well over 70,000 casualties are expected. Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion. These results focus on the immediate effects of the massive earthquake itself. As preppers, we consider the ancillary impact in the form of societal unrest — looting, death from sickness and murder.
The States of Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and Illinois would also incur significant losses. Studies indicate a potential direct economic loss reaching over $150 billion.
The indirect economic loss due to business interruption and loss of market share is at least as high if not far greater than the direct losses. Scientists and economists predict the total economic impact of a series of NMSZ earthquakes is likely to constitute the highest economic loss due to a natural disaster in U.S. history.
The financial losses and societal impact for each state should be considered separately. Since each scenario is based on a different hazard, adding results together will not reflect an accurate scenario. It's hard to gauge the potential loss of life resulting from a natural disaster of this magnitude.
Critical infrastructure and lifelines will also be heavily damaged and will be out of service after the earthquake for a considerable period. The resulting collapse of the power grid and transportation routes are likely to affect a region much larger than the eight states referenced above. Many hospitals nearest to the epicenter will not be able to care for its patients. Many of those injured during the disaster will have to be transported outside of the region for medical attention. Moreover, pre-disaster patients will be required to continue their care outside of the area to fully functioning hospitals.
It is doubtful that the transportation system will be intact. Damage to the transportation system will hinder mass evacuation efforts. First responders will be severely impaired due to police and fire stations throughout the impacted region. Public shelters will be damaged and unusable after the earthquake.
The scenario described for a New Madrid Zone earthquake can be applied to other catastrophic disaster events. Strikes by near Earth objects such as asteroids can be extinction level events. Likewise, a massive eruption of the Yellowstone Super Volcano could result in climate change that would alter the entire food production system of the Northern Hemisphere.
What if?
Cyber Warfare
We explored this concept in depth in the first book released into the Prepping for Tomorrow series titled Cyber Warfare. A number one bestseller in an unprecedented eight Amazon categories, Cyber Warfare is a primer on the threats we face as a nation from the bad actors mentioned above. It explores the history of cyber attacks, and discusses the nuances of the terminology. United States, and its allies, have evolved over the past decade in its policies. The problem is attribution is explored as cyber space allows hackers a convenient place to hide.
There are many bad actors on the international stage capable of cyber terror on a massive scale. The list is long, including Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria and now even terrorist groups like ISIS. Each is capable of wreaking havoc in the US by shutting down our power grid and enjoying the resulting chaos.
The all-important issue is raised:
When does a cyber attack become an act of war?
After a thorough review of the threat a devastating cyber attack poses for America, in particular the critical infrastructure, Cyber Warfare provides preparedness solutions. Like Cyber Warfare, this guide will also help you answer the question:
What if the preppers are right?
Simply put, a Cyber Attack is a deliberate exploitation of computer systems. Cyber Attacks are used to gain access to information but can also be used to alter computer code, insert malware or take over the operations of a computer driven network.
Why would terrorists bother with an elaborate, dangerous physical operation—complete with all the recon and planning of a black ops mission—when they could achieve the same effect from the comfort of their home? An effective cyber attack could, if cleverly designed, produce a great deal of physical damage very quickly, and interconnections in digital operations would mean such an attack could bypass fail safes in the physical infrastructure that stop cascading failures.
One string of 1s and 0s could have a significant impact. If a computer hacker could command all the circuit breakers in a utility to open, the system will be overloaded. Power utility personnel sitting in the control room could do it. A proficient cyber-terrorist can do it as well. In fact, smart-grid technologies are more susceptible to common computer failures. New features added to make the system easily manageable might render it more vulnerable.
At least one major public official downplays the cyber attack scenario. The nation's top disaster responder, FEMA director Craig Fugate, shrugs at the threat of an power grid collapse.
"When have people panicked? Generally what you find is the birth rate goes up nine months later," he said, then turned more serious: "People are much more resilient than the professionals would give them credit for. Would it be unpleasant? Yes. Would it be uncomfortable? Have you ever seen the power go out, and traffic signals stop working? Traffic's hell but people figure it out."
Fugate's big worry in a mass outage is communication, he said. When people can get information and know how long power will be out, they handle it much better.
Don't worry, the government will take care of you. Naïve.
In poll after poll, one of the threats concerning preppers is the use of a cyber attack to cause a grid down scenario. There are many bad actors on the international stage. Each is capable of wreaking havoc in the US by shutting down our power grid and enjoying the resulting chaos.
No bombs. No bullets. No swordfights. Just a few keystrokes on the computer, and we're done.
What if?
EMP: Electromagnetic Pulse
EMP: Electromagnetic Pulse is the second book in the Prepping for Tomorrow series. A #1 bestseller in seven genres, EMP: Electromagnetic Pulse is a primer on the threats we face as a nation from an attack delivered by an electromagnetic pulse weapon. EMP: Electromagnetic Pulse is a thorough analysis of the threats our nation faces from a devastating Electromagnetic Pulse, whether delivered by a nuclear weapon, or a powerful solar flare blast from our sun. This detailed book not only provides a historical perspective, but it discusses the present day uses of EMP weaponry and the steps you can take to be prepar
ed.
In poll after poll, one of the threats facing our nation is the use of an electromagnetic pulse weapon to cause a grid down scenario. There are many bad actors on the international stage capable of terrorism on a massive scale. The list is long, including Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria and now even terrorist groups like ISIS. Each is capable of wreaking havoc in the United States by shutting down our power grid and enjoying the resulting chaos. The constant barrage of cyber intrusions into the public and private sector have captured the news headlines in recent years, but it is time to refocus on the threat an EMP poses for our nation's critical infrastructure.
Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, began hearings in the summer of 2015 on the threat of an EMP detonation over the U.S. The witnesses included, among others, James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence, Joseph McClelland, Director of the Office of Energy Infrastructure Security at FERC, and Christopher Currie, Director of Homeland Security and Justice with the Government Accountability Office.
The conclusion: The threat is real, and the need of the U.S. to prepare for this eventuality is critical. Chairman Johnson, in his opening remarks, stated although the issue of EMP has been on the government radar for years, it has gone largely ignored. He pointed out the fact that not one of the suggestions put forward by the congressionally mandated EMP Commission formed in 2002 has been put in place.
The science behind an electromagnetic pulse might be considered complicated, and frightening. An EMP event can occur either naturally (through solar flares, as discussed above) or artificially, as the result of a high-altitude nuclear explosion. The high-energy particles from such an explosion would cascade down to Earth, interacting with the planet's magnetic field and destroying the electronic systems below. The resulting pulse of energy can destroy millions of transformers in America's power grid as they travel along transformer lines.
The possibility of man-made EMP events has grown in tandem with the technological sophistication of America's adversaries. It is widely known that both Russia and China already have this capability, and both countries have carried out serious work relating to the generation of EMP in recent years as part of their respective military modernization programs.
Now, America's enemies like Iran and North Korea may not be that far behind. Iran, for example, is known to have simulated a nuclear EMP attack several years ago using short-range missiles launched from a freighter. Recently, the Iranians test fired a medium range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. North Korea, meanwhile, has acquired the blueprints to build an EMP warhead. In July of 2013, a North Korean freighter made it all the way to the Gulf of Mexico through the Panama Canal carrying two nuclear capable missiles in the ship's hold.
In addition, all of these countries have successfully orbited a number of satellites that could evade U.S. early warning radars. The Strategic Defense Initiative, or Star Wars, as former President Ronald Reagan once called it, was widely panned as bizarre by political opponents and the mainstream media. Today, satellites carrying nuclear warheads are at the ideal altitude to generate an EMP across the entire continental US. Perhaps, President Reagan was right.
Scientists concur that such an attack, if it occurs, would have devastating consequences. A nuclear warhead detonated three hundred miles above St. Louis, Missouri could collapse the entire nations power grid. According to the EMP Commission, the recovery time from a nationwide EMP event might be anywhere from one to 10 years. In the meantime, ninety percent of Americans would likely die from starvation, disease, or societal collapse.
There are solutions, and the clarion bell has been rung. Our nation's leaders have a duty to protect the homeland. This book is intended to raise awareness of the threat and provide the reader preparedness solutions. EMP: Electromagnetic Pulse will also help you answer the question:
EMP: A threat from above to America's soft underbelly below. The clock is ticking. One second after. One year after.
What if?
The Deadly Threat of a Coronal Mass Ejection – Solar Flare
A powerful electromagnetic pulse, whether resulting from a nuclear delivered EMP or a massive solar storm, could collapse the power grid and the critical infrastructure of our nation.
What are solar storms?
Every minute, huge eruptions of magnetically charged plasma are emitted from the sun's roiling interior, exploding outward into space. Known as coronal mass ejections, or CME, these moderate solar storms occur fairly regularly and harmlessly, sometimes causing spectacular auroras that illuminate the sky over the North and South poles. But even typically benign solar storms generate energy many times more powerful than our planet's combined nuclear arsenals.
Is the threat real? Renowned American astronomer Phil Plait, who is a self-proclaimed skeptic, is known as The Bad Astronomer because of his work in debunking common misunderstandings about space events. "People sometimes ask me if anything in astronomy actually worries me," says Plait, when asked about the threat of a deadly CME. "Something like this is near the top of the list."
There is good reason to be concerned. A National Academy of Sciences study found there is a 12 percent chance that a monster solar storm will strike Earth within the next decade, concluding a solar event of that magnitude could cause $2 trillion of damage in the first year of recovery alone—twenty times the cost of Hurricane Katrina.
But, what about the human cost? Studies frequently cite economic loss. How would the destruction of the power grid and other critical infrastructure like the internet, banking, and government be effected? Has such a storm ever hit Earth?
Yes, several times. Imagine our way of life without power for weeks on end as a result of a massive solar flare striking the Earth. It happened in 1859 in what is commonly referred to as the Carrington Event.
On Sept. 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington noticed a brilliant solar flare over England. In the days that followed, a succession of coronal mass ejections struck Earth head-on. Auroras illuminated night skies from Africa to Hawaii. "The light appeared to cover the whole firmament," one Baltimore newspaper reported. "It had an indescribable softness and delicacy." The effects were more than aesthetic. EMPs from the storm caused telegraph systems — known as the Victorian internet — to fail throughout North America and Europe; in some cases, lines sparked and offices caught fire. Otherwise, the damage was minimal.
Nonetheless, for telegraph operators in the Americas and Europe, however, the experience caused chaos. Many found that their lines were just unusable—they could neither send nor receive messages. Others were able to operate even with their power supplies turned off, using only the current in the air from the solar storm.
From historical reports, one telegraph operator said "The line was in perfect order, and skilled operators worked incessantly from eight o'clock last evening until one o'clock this morning to transmit, in an intelligible form, four hundred words of the report per steamer Indian for the Associated Press."
Other operators experienced physical danger. Washington, D.C., operator Frank Royce said "I received a very severe electric shock, which stunned me for an instant. An old man who was sitting facing me, and but a few feet distant, said that he saw a spark of fire jump from my forehead to the sounder."
At the time, the telegraph was a new technology and never experienced technical difficulties of this type. But the story offers an important warning for modern society. The Carrington Event provides evidence of the fragility of electrical infrastructure. Scientific American reported in October of 1859: "The electromagnetic basis of the various phenomena was identified relatively quickly. A connection between the northern lights and forces of electricity and magnetism is now fully established."
This event was long before humanity became utterly reliant on electronics — as it was when history repeated itself 153 years later.
In 1989, a far smaller solar flare sent a pulse of radia
tion that left 6 million people in Quebec without power for up to nine hours. Much more alarming was a solar super storm that barely missed Earth in July 2012. Astronomers say the sun spewed out a huge magnetic cloud that tracked straight through our planet's orbit. Fortunately for civilization, Earth was elsewhere in its path around the sun at the time, but had the storm roared through nine days earlier, a worst-case scenario would have occurred. Satellites involved in crucial global communications (including GPS) would have been ruined, large electrical transformers would have been destroyed, and ATMs would have stopped functioning. The internet would have been disabled on a massive scale. Most people wouldn't even have been able to flush toilets, which rely on electric pumps.
Three years later, "we would still be picking up the pieces," says astronomer Daniel Baker. "The July 2012 storm was in all respects at least as strong as the Carrington Event. The only difference is, it missed."
In a word—TEOTWAWKI—The End Of The World As We Know It.
Over the last one hundred and fifty years, the world's critical infrastructure has become a more integral part of daily life. In the nineteenth century, telegraphs composed a comparatively small and relatively non-essential part of everyday life. Their successors today—including the electrical grid and much of the telecommunications network—are essential to modern life.
Is the current system any more protected from catastrophic interference than the telegraph of the nineteenth century? Can the power grid handle a terrorist attack, or severe weather events, or a solar storm?
There's never been a real test to prove it, but there is a robust debate about the vulnerability of the power grid. The most dangerous and costly possibilities for major catastrophes, the collapse of the nation's critical infrastructure, might visit the United States from any number of methods.