‘So you mean their satellites had the same real-time imagery?’ said Hastings.
‘And they’re going for Shillong. That’s the Eastern Command HQ. Tezu comes under it.’
‘They must have, sir. This is not a random action. Their missile sites are prepared and programmed to targets.’
‘With our damn stolen technology. Reece, you still there?’
‘Yes, Mr President.’
‘Stay on the line until we ascertain what they’re hitting and how hard. If it’s a conventional strike against an Indian missile base, it’ll be hard for us to complain. I don’t like it but it seems to me to be a legitimate act of war. What we’ll be needing from them, however, is a pledge that they will not go nuclear against India and that their missiles are not targeted against the United States.’
‘I’ve just been speaking to Japanese Prime Minister Wada,’ said Defence Secretary Alvin Jebb. ‘He says Japanese warplanes have been patrolling an area to the north of Taiwan. He has both signals and electronic intelligence that a missile launch is imminent from Tonghua against the Okinawa facilities. That would be a strike against American forces, sir.’
‘They wouldn’t do it,’ said Hastings, more to himself than in answer to Jebb.
‘This thing is getting a momentum, sir. I wouldn’t be so sure.’
The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia
Local time: 0900 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0600 Tuesday 8 May 2007
The Cold War years of President Gorbunov’s early career had centred on the few seconds that a nuclear exchange might become real. For decades the Soviet Union was on a constant exercise when conflict could suddenly break out from existing manoeuvres. The aim had been to exhaust and confuse, such that a decoy deployment staged for the enemy satellites could within seconds become a genuine step towards attack. For years in Moscow and finally as Pacific Fleet commander Gorbunov had lived and breathed it like a ritual. He could still recite weapons codes and coordinates. He knew without notes the sites which would be used for first strike and the surviving sites which would handle the second strikes. Even now, as President, he insisted on having the daily positions put on his desk of the Typhoon-class strategic missile submarines patrolling under the ice of the Arctic Circle. He had even insisted on changing the lax practice of not reconfirming the area known as the polynya every twelve hours. This was a patch of clear water, surrounded by ice, through which the missile could be launched. Gorbunov wanted the submarines no further than fifteen minutes from the nearest polynya.
Like China and America, Russia’s intelligence-gathering machine picked up the Chinese missile launch. But unlike President Hastings, Gorbunov had arranged for a line to be kept open between his office and the Chinese operational command in the Western Hills. He was, after all, the main supplier of China’s military hardware. On a separate telephone, he had a line to Hari Dixit, now back in the Prime Minister’s office in Delhi’s South Block. Neither party knew Gorbunov had direct access. More than any of the other two leaders, Gorbunov knew the split-second decision-making needed in nuclear warfare, and he had no intention of being called in at the fifty-ninth second, when a missile was midair and about to strike.
‘Is it nuclear?’ he said to his aide-de-camp, who checked on the line to the Western Hills.
‘A conventional strike against missile sites at the Eastern Air Command in Shillong,’ came back the reply. Gorbunov immediately repeated the message to Hari Dixit, then was on another line to John Hastings in the White House.
‘What about Okinawa?’ said the American President.
‘I have nothing on that,’ said Gorbunov.
‘Well, if you’re in touch with General Leung, tell him that if one piece of ordnance hurts one American, I will destroy his goddamn war machine for the next five thousand years.’
Gorbunov didn’t pass on the message, but it confirmed very much what he feared. The orders which he personally would give over the next few minutes would also set back Russian–American relations for more than a decade. Ever since the end of the Cold War, however, the relationship had been one-sided, driven by the whims of Western money and Western democracies and caring little for the feelings of the Russian people. It was not an honourable position for the Motherland. Gorbunov was about to risk a change for the better.
The cornerstone of Russia’s strategic force was the intercontinental ballistic missile, the SS-27 Topol-M. Because of funding problems, the Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering State Enterprise (MIT) – the sole Topol factory – could only produce ten to fifteen missiles a year. Russia had in service far fewer than the 450 missile level needed to maintain parity with the United States under the START II treaty. For the purposes of conflict, however, the figures were largely cosmetic. Gorbunov had about 150 missiles, enough to shift substantially the global balance of power.
The 45-tonne missile had had more than a dozen successful test flights since 1995. In December 1997, the first two Topol-M systems were put on alert for a trial period in the Taman Division at Tatischevo in the Saratov region, 725 kilometres south-east of Moscow near the border with Kazakhstan. Since then Russia had converted about a hundred silos of the defunct RS-20 missiles for use by the Topol-M. The plan was to have an equal number of silos and mobile launchers, which could be driven both on and off the road. Since coming to power, Gorbunov had insisted on a programme of constant exercises with the Topol-M mobile launch system. Tests in 1998 showed that the Topol-M could be converted to carry at least four manoeuvrable warheads and it could be launched with a short engine-burn time helping it to escape satellite detection.
By 2005, the Topol-M was deployed at Saratov, at Valday, 770 kilometres north of Moscow, in the silos in the southern Urals and Altay in Siberia. Gorbunov had also maintained a conflict launch capability at the Plesetsk test site, 800 kilometres north of Moscow, and at Kamchatka in the Far East.
He planned to use the Strategic Rocket Forces to the full, three hundred thousand troops divided into six separate armies, each comprising three to five divisions. The soldiers looked after security, transportation and above-ground maintenance. Officers manned launch stations and command posts underground. In total, Russia had three hundred launch control centres and twenty-eight missile bases, although some had been mothballed in the past ten years because of arms reduction. While the SS-27 Topol-M was the cream of the force, the SS-25s were better tested for road mobility and the SS-24 was the missile transported by rail. Two-thirds of the mobile missile force was deployed in the west of Russia to be used against Western Europe and one-third was still east of the Ural mountains for use against China. Either sector could strike the United States. All were in constant combat readiness with Gorbunov receiving daily reports of any maintenance problems which depleted his nuclear capability. Right now he had 4,486 nuclear devices at stationary, railway and mobile launch complexes and 672 launchers ready to be used. Before he gave his orders he set up quick response system between the Sixth Directorate of the Headquarters, Strategic Rocket Forces and the Twelfth Directorate of the Ministry of Defence, which represented the nuclear weapons line of command, with open lines from his office to both directorates.
Then he instructed overt activity at several nuclear storage and launch sites. Missiles were moved around by road and rail. They were brought out into clearings and elevated for launch. It was a crisp clear day over large areas of Russia and the American satellites were passing overhead.
Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, Delhi, India
Local time: 1130 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0600 Tuesday 8 May 2007
‘Eastern Air Command outside of Shillong is a bloody mess,’ said Chandra Reddy. ‘We have lost our command and control ability for the operation in Arunachal Pradesh.’
‘Casualties?’ asked Hari Dixit.
‘In the dozens, sir. The cantonment is outside the town. We’re still checking, but there are no reports of large-scale civilian casualties. Air Marshal Ravi Thapar is
among the dead. He refused to go into the bunker.’
‘Damn fool,’ muttered the Chief of Army Staff, Unni Khrishnan.
‘John Hastings wants to speak to you from Washington,’ said Prabhu Purie, the Foreign Minister. ‘Joan Holden urges us not to respond.’
Dixit drummed his fingers on the table. ‘Does she now. I will not be speaking to Hastings, and tell Holden this. We pulled back, on an American assurance which proved to be hollow. We have taken heavy casualties at Shillong. I have lost a personal friend, and our ability to conduct an operation against the invading Chinese troops has been severely weakened. If I was a suspicious man, I would imagine that the United States and China were working together against India. Certainly, that is what our free press will make of it. So tell Holden that the democratically elected government of India reserves the right to do whatever it chooses to neutralize the threat from China.’ He turned to Chandra Reddy. ‘Can you get me Gorbunov at the Kremlin?’
When the Russian President was on the line, he said, ‘We may have to embark upon full-scale war with China.’
‘That does not surprise me,’ said Gorbunov.
‘I would like an assurance that our arms supplies will continue.’
‘You have it. I have anticipated the conflict and we have transport planes, engineers and technicians standing by to fly in spares and new equipment. But I must tell you this. We are doing exactly the same for China. We are abiding by our existing contracts, giving no more and no less. Should I withdraw supplies to you both, China would win because of its superior sea-launched submarine capability and land-based missile arsenal. It is also more able to absorb casualties. My policy is that whatever the stakes and whatever the outcome, this conflict must be confined within Asia without interference from Russia or the United States.’
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, China
Local time: 1400 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0600 Tuesday 8 May 2007
‘The loyal forces of the Second Artillery Regiment of the People’s Liberation Army have intervened to stop a splittist declaration of independence by illegal groups in the province of Taiwan. Taiwan is an inalienable part of China and is an internal matter for the Chinese government. Meanwhile, fishermen on the islands of Pei-kan, Nan-kan and Pai-chuan have asked Chinese troops for help in building cyclone shelters for their boats. The People’s Liberation Army is now working on that task, despite being attacked by a small number of terrorists who are holed up on the islands. Chinese fishermen on the island of Kinmen [Quemoy] have also asked for help and Chinese troops are on their way.’
Prime Minister’s Office, Tokyo, Japan
Local time: 1500 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0600 Tuesday 8 May 2007
‘John, you can’t sit on the fence,’ said Prime Minister Wada, on the phone to the American President. ‘You have obligations both to Taiwan and to Japan. Matsu has fallen and within twelve hours they may have taken Kinmen. A carrier group arriving in twenty-four hours is just not enough.’
‘Taiwan has nothing to do with our treaty obligations to Japan,’ said Hastings.
‘To be frank, it does. Taken in isolation, I might be able to agree with you. But given what China is doing in India, it is imperative that its aggression be contained.’
The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC
Local time: 0115 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0615 Tuesday 8 May 2007
‘We’re exchanging real-time SIGINT and ELINT with Taiwan,’ said Tom Bloodworth. ‘We’ve identified targets along the eastern coastline for cruise missile attacks. We have an Arleigh Burke-class cruiser within range and a first strike of Tomahawk cruise missiles is ready to go. The Japanese have picked up ELINT that the Chinese may deploy a SATCOM jammer against the US NAVSTAR Global Positioning System.’
‘They’re that sophisticated?’ said Hastings.
‘We don’t know. They may try. But anyway we’ll be deploying the TLAM Block III system which incorporates jam-resistant GPS receivers. It will also mean we don’t have to use the terrain features to guide the missile to target, which would take time to prepare. That’s why we’re ready to launch now.’
‘I suppose it’s no good me suggesting we don’t,’ said Joan Holden.
Ennio Barber answered before Hastings could. ‘We have to go to the American people with at least one strike, Mr President. The polls want us to hit much harder. The talk shows are full of retrospective stuff about us being soft on China and coddling dictators. If we don’t hit back at them we lose it all.’
‘Ennio has a point,’ said Alvin Jebb. ‘Although I admit it reluctantly. A superpower which fails to use that power in time of crisis is no longer a superpower.’
‘And we’ll lose the election,’ added Barber.
‘I understand the domestic political angle,’ said Holden. ‘I disagree with Alvin about losing superpower status, and I am not sure what we will achieve with one missile strike.’
‘We force through a ceasefire. It’s a message of force,’ said Jebb.
‘Tom,’ said Hastings, ‘what is your view?’
‘It won’t force a ceasefire,’ he said. ‘The Chinese will not back down, because if they do they will be embarrassed. But I don’t see that we have an alternative. If we strike over Taiwan, we might send a message to the Indians that we’re out there and that they don’t have to nuke China to survive. That’s what we’ve got to keep our eye on. After all these years, Taiwan is turning out to be a sideshow to the real conflict.’ Bloodworth suddenly became distracted by new information on his computer screen. ‘Sorry, but we’re getting reports of unusual deployments around the nuclear missile silos in Russia. Mr President, I think you had better talk to Gorbunov.’
Foreign Ministry, Beijing, China
Local time: 1430 Tuesday 8 May 2007
GMT: 0630 Tuesday 8 May 2007
‘If American missiles hit the mainland, we’ll be expelling you,’ Jamie Song told his friend Reece Overhalt. ‘The Embassy and your residence are surrounded by anti-American protesters. Don’t even try to get back there. I will give you a car with Foreign Ministry number plates to take you to the airport. We’ve given permission for the Gulf-stream chartered by your Embassy to stay on the tarmac until you need it. I will send in Public Security Bureau police to the Embassy to help evacuate staff. I will do that now. They will be taken to the airport and put on any commercial flights out. CNN might be saying that the demonstrations are staged. Believe me, they are not. We’re even worried that they might get out of hand and turn into a protest about our close relationship with the United States.’
‘I’m urging them not to strike,’ said Overhalt. ‘If you can hold off the invasion of Kinmen, we can hold off the strikes.’
Song let out a tired, cynical laugh. ‘Xinhua has announced it. China always does what it says it’s going to do. We are the most predictable government in the world. Besides, you have no choice. If you don’t strike, you lose it all, to Japan, to India, to Russia and to us.’ Song got up. Despite his bloodshot eyes and drawn features, he looked immaculate in a tailor-made dark suit. ‘I’ve promised to do CNN,’ he said. ‘It’s only next door, so hang around and watch it. It’ll probably be my last interview before Congress passes a new Trading with the Enemy Act with China.’
CNN: Foreign Minister, thank you for coming on to give us the Chinese perspective on the Taiwan dispute, and I would like to start on as optimistic a note as we can muster. Can you give us a timetable for the withdrawal of Chinese troops from Taiwan?
Song: I hope I can. But I would just like to make clear to the American people what we did and what we are trying to achieve. Our missile strike was very specific. We targeted the building and people inside who were about to issue a declaration of independence. We have always said we would take action and we did. For defensive purposes we will be putting military garrisons on islands previously occupied by Taiwanese troops. These are known in the US as Kinmen or Quemoy, and Matsu. They are
about a hundred miles west of the island of Taiwan and dangerously close to our eastern coastline defences. Those operations are still ongoing and I believe the Taiwanese are putting up limited military resistance. I would expect us to be in full control by midday tomorrow.
CNN: Xinhua said that you were helping local fishermen build typhoon shelters.
Song: I don’t edit Xinhua. You want to know what’s happening and I’m telling you. This is too big to try to pit me against our official news agency.
CNN: All right, you occupy the islands. Then what?
Song: We will not strike Taiwan Island again as long as there are no further moves to declare independence. The National Assembly never passed the law. The celebrations did not go ahead, so I see no reason for conflict.
CNN: Except that the people of Taiwan want independence.
Song: They have it. They have more independence than the Kashmiris, the Chechens, the Texans, the Catholics of Northern Ireland and the Tibetans. All we are saying is this: Taiwan will not get a seat in the UN because China is a permanent member of the Security Council and we will veto its admittance. If John Hastings wants to recognize Taiwan’s independence, China will break off relations with the United States. The same applies to any other government. What I suggest is that President Lin grows up. Instead of trying to score personal points for himself, he allows time for us to sort out the Taiwan question. It may not happen in my lifetime or his. But it could emerge peacefully, if he lets it.
CNN: The opinion polls in the US favour American intervention.
Song: Intervene in what? Unless you declare all-out war in China, I can’t see what you can do. You strike one airfield on our east coast and we have a hundred more we can use. Just think what it took to get a deal with Serbia in 1999, and that’s the size of just one county in one of our coastal provinces.
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