by Tom Clancy
“These are small things, my friends,” Yamata said, graciously leaning across the table to refill cups. “Our national weakness is structural and has not changed in real terms in our lifetime.”
“Please explain, Raizo-chan,” one of his friendlier peers suggested.
“So long as we lack direct access to resources, so long as we cannot control that access ourselves, so long as we exist as the shopkeeper of other nations, we are vulnerable.”
“Ah!” Across the table a man waved a dismissive hand. “I disagree. We are strong in the things that matter.”
“And what are those things?” Yamata inquired gently.
“First and most importantly, the diligence of our workers, the skill of our designers ...” The litany went on while Yamata and his other guests listened politely.
“And how long will those things matter if we no longer have resources to use, oil to burn?” one of Yamata’s allies inquired with a litany of his own.
“Nineteen forty-one all over again?”
“No, it will not be that way ... exactly,” Yamata said, rejoining the conversation. “Then it was possible for them to cut off our oil because we bought almost all of it from them. Today it is more subtle. Back then they had to freeze our assets to prevent us from spending them elsewhere, yes? Today they devalue the dollar relative to the yen, and our assets are trapped there, are they not? Today they trick us into investing our money there, they complain when we do, they cheat us at every turn, they keep what we give to them for their property, and then they steal back what we’ve bought!”
This tack caused heads first to turn and then to nod. Every man in the room had lived through that experience. That one, Yamata saw, had bought Rockefeller Center in New York, had paid double what it was really worth, even in that artificially inflated real-estate market, been tricked and cheated by the American owners. Then the yen had risen relative to the dollar, which meant that the dollar had lost value relative to the yen. If he tried to sell now, everyone knew, it would be a disaster. First, the real-estate market in New York City had dropped of its own accord; second, and as a result, the buildings were worth only half of the dollars that had already been paid; third, the dollars were worth only half the value in yen that they had been in the beginning. He’d be lucky to get back a quarter of what he’d put into the deal. In fact, the rent he was earning barely paid the interest payments on the outstanding debt.
That one there, Yamata thought, had bought a major motion-picture studio, and across the table a rival had done the same. It was all Raizo could do not to laugh at the fools. What had each bought? That was simple. In each case, for a price of billions of dollars, they had purchased three hundred or so hectares of real estate in Los Angeles and a piece of paper that said they now had the ability to make movies. In both cases the previous owners had taken the money and quite openly laughed, and in both cases the previous owners had recently made a quiet offer to buy the property back for a quarter, or less, of what the Japanese businessman had paid—enough to retire the outstanding debt and not a single yen more.
It went on and on. Every time a Japanese company had taken its profits from America and tried to reinvest them back in America, the Americans screamed about how Japan was stealing their country. Then they overcharged for everything. Then their government policy made sure that the Japanese lost money on everything, so that Americans could then buy it all back at cut-rate prices, all the while complaining that those prices were too high. America would rejoice at recovering control of its culture, such as it was, when in reality what had happened was the largest and best concealed robbery in world history.
“Don’t you see? They’re trying to cripple us, and they are succeeding,” Yamata told them in a quiet, reasonable voice.
It was the classic business paradox which all know but all forget. There was even a simple aphorism for it: borrow one dollar and the bank owns you; borrow a million dollars and you own the bank. Japan had bought into the American auto market, for example, at a time when the U.S. auto industry, fat from its huge exclusive clientele, was driving up prices and allowing quality to stagnate while its unionized workers complained about the dehumanizing aspects of their work—the highest-paid jobs in blue-collar America. The Japanese had started in that market at an even lower status than Volkswagen, with small, ugly cars that were not all that well made and contained unimpressive safety features, but that were superior to American designs in one way: they were fuel-efficient.
Three historical accidents had then come to Japan’s aid. The American Congress, upset with the “greed” of oil companies who wanted to charge world price for their products, had placed a cap on the wellhead price of domestic crude oil. That had frozen American gasoline prices at the lowest level in the industrial world, discouraged new oil exploration, and encouraged Detroit to make large, heavy, fuel-inefficient cars. Then the 1973 war between Israel and the Arab states had placed American drivers in gasoline lines for the first time in thirty years, and the trauma had stunned a country that had deemed itself above such things. Then they’d realized that Detroit only made automobiles that drank gasoline as though through the floodgates of a dam. The “compact” cars that the American manufacturers had started making in the previous decade had almost immediately grown to midsize, were no more fuel-efficient than their larger cousins, and weren’t all that well made in any case. Worst of all, the American manufacturers, to a man, had all recently invested money in large-car plants, a fact that had almost been the undoing of Chrysler. This oil shock had not lasted long, but long enough for America to rethink its buying habits, and the domestic companies had not possessed the capital or the engineering flexibility to change rapidly to what unaccustomedly nervous American citizens wanted.
Those citizens had immediately increased purchases of Japanese automobiles, especially in the crucial, trend-setting West Coast markets, which had had the effect of funding research and development for the Japanese firms, which in turn had hired American styling engineers to make their products more attractive to their growing market and utilized its own engineers to improve such things as safety. Thus, by the second great oil shock of 1979, Toyota, Honda, Datsun (later Nissan), and Subaru were in the right place with the right product. Those were the salad days. The low yen and high dollar had meant that even relatively low prices guaranteed a handsome profit, that their local dealers could add a surcharge of a thousand dollars or more for allowing people to purchase these marvelous automobiles—and that had given them a large, eager sales force of American citizens.
What had never occurred to any of the men at the table, Yamata knew, was the same thing that had never occurred to the executives of General Motors and the United Auto Workers union. Both had assumed that a happy state of affairs would extend into blissful eternity. Both had forgotten that there was no Divine Right of Businessmen any more than there was a Divine Right of Kings. Japan had learned to exploit a weakness of the American auto industry. In due course, America had learned from its own mistakes, and just as Japanese companies had capitalized on American arrogance, in the same way they almost immediately built—or bought—monuments to their own. Meanwhile the American companies had ruthlessly downsized everything from their automobile designs to their payrolls because they had re-learned the economic facts of life even as the Japanese had allowed themselves to forget them. The process went mainly unseen, especially by the players, who were not assisted by the media “analysts” who were too busy looking at trees to discern the shape of the cyclical forest.
To normalize things further, the exchange rate changed—as it had to change with so much money flowing in one direction—but the Japanese industrialists hadn’t seen it coming any more clearly than Detroit had noted the approach of its own troubles. The relative value of the yen had gone up, and that of the dollar down, despite the best efforts of Japanese central bankers to keep their own currency weak. With that change went much of the profit margin of the Japanese firms—including the
values of properties bought in America that had crashed enough in value to be seen as net losses. And you couldn’t transport Rockefeller Center to Tokyo in any case.
It had to be this way. Yamata saw that even if these men did not. Business was a cycle, like riding a wave up and down, and no one had as yet found a way to make the cycle smooth out. Japan was all the more vulnerable to it, since, in serving America, Japanese industry was really part of the American economy and subject to all of its vagaries. The Americans would not remain more foolish than the Japanese indefinitely, and with their return to sanity, they would have their advantages of power and resources yet again, and his chance would be gone forever. His country’s chance, too, Yamata told himself. That was also important, but it was not the thing that made his eyes burn.
His country could not be great so long as its leaders—not in the government, but here around this table—failed to understand what greatness was. Manufacturing capacity was nothing. The simple act of cutting the shipping lanes to the sources of raw materials could idle every factory in the country, and then the skill and diligence of the Japanese worker would have no greater meaning in the great scheme of things than a Buson haiku. A nation was great because of power, and his country’s power was just as artificial as a poem. More to the point, national greatness was not something awarded, but something won; it had to be acknowledged by another great nation that had been taught humility ... or more than one. Greatness came not from a single national asset. It came from many. It came from self-sufficiency in all things—well, in as many things as possible. His companions around the table had to see that before he could act on their behalf and his nation’s. It was his mission to raise up his nation and to humble others. It was his destiny and his duty to make these things happen, to be the catalyst for all the energy of others.
But the time was not yet right. He could see that. His allies were many, but there were not enough of them, and those who opposed him were too fixed in their thinking to be persuaded. They saw his point, but not as clearly as he did, and until they changed their way of thinking, he could do no more than what he was doing now, offering counsel, setting the stage. A man of surpassing patience, Yamata-san smiled politely and ground his teeth, with the frustration of the moment.
“You know, I think I’m starting to get the hang of this place,” Ryan said as he took his place in the leather chair to the President’s left.
“I said that once,” Durling announced. “It cost me three tenths of a point of unemployment, a fight with House Ways and Means, and ten real points of approval rating.” Though his voice was grave, he smiled when he said it. “So what’s so hot that you’re interrupting my lunch?”
Jack didn’t make him wait, though his news was important enough to merit a dramatic reply: “We have our agreement with the Russians and Ukrainians on the last of the birds.”
“Starting when?” Durling asked, leaning forward over his desk and ignoring his salad.
“How does next Monday grab you?” Ryan asked with a grin. “They went for what Scott said. There’ve been so many of these START procedures that they want just to kill the last ones quietly and announce that they’re gone, once and for all. Our inspectors are already over there, and theirs are over here, and they’ll just go and do it.”
“I like it,” Durling replied.
“Exactly forty years, boss,” Ryan said with some passion, “practically my whole life since they deployed the SS-6 and we deployed Atlas, ugly damned things with an ugly damned purpose, and helping to make them go away—well, Mr. President, now I owe you one. It’s going to be your mark, sir, but I can tell my grandchildren that I was around when it happened.” That Adler’s proposal to the Russians and Ukrainians had been Ryan’s initiative might end up as a footnote, but probably not.
“Our grandchildren either won’t care or they’ll ask what the big deal was,” Arnie van Damm observed, deadpan.
“True,” Ryan conceded. Trust Arnie to put a neutral spin on things.
“Now tell me the bad news,” Durling ordered.
“Five billion,” Jack said, unsurprised by the hurt expression he got in return. “It’s worth it, sir. It really is.”
“Tell me why.”
“Mr. President, since I was in grammar school our country has lived with the threat of nuclear weapons on ballistic launchers aimed at the United States. Inside of six weeks, the last of them could be gone.”
“They’re already aimed—”
“Yes, sir, we have ours aimed at the Sargasso Sea, and so do they, an error that you can fix by opening an inspection port and changing a printed-circuit card in the guidance system. To do that takes ten minutes from the moment you open the access door into the missile silo and requires a screwdriver and a flashlight.” Actually, that was true only for the Soviet—Russian! Ryan corrected himself for the thousandth time—missiles. The remaining American birds took longer to retarget due to their greater sophistication. Such were the vagaries of engineering science.
“All gone, sir, gone forever,” Ryan said. “I’m the hard-nosed hawk here, remember? We can sell this to the Hill. It’s worth the price and more.”
“You make a good case, as always,” van Damm announced from his chair.
“Where will OMB find the money, Arnie?” President Durling asked. Now it was Ryan’s turn to cringe.
“Defense, where else?”
“Before we get too enthusiastic about that, we’ve gone too far already.”
“What will we save by eliminating our last missiles?” van Damm asked.
“It’ll cost us money,” Jack replied. “We’re already paying an arm and a leg to dismantle the missile subs, and the environmentalists—”
“Those wonderful people,” Durling observed.
“—but it’s a one-time expense.”
Eyes turned to the chief of staff. His political judgment was impeccable. The weathered face weighed the factors and turned to Ryan. “It’s worth the hassle. There will be a hassle on the Hill, boss,” he told the President, “but a year from now you’ll be telling the American people how you put an end to the sword of—”
“Damocles,” Ryan said.
“Catholic schools.” Arnie chuckled. “The sword that’s hung over America for a generation. The papers’ll like it, and you just know that CNN will make a big deal about it, one of their hour-long special-report gigs, with lots of good pictures and inaccurate commentary.”
“Don’t like that, Jack?” Durling asked, smiling broadly now.
“Mr. President, I’m not a politician, okay? Isn’t it sufficient to the moment that we’re dismantling the last two hundred ICBMs in the world?” Well, that wasn’t exactly true, was it? Let’s not wax too poetic, Jack. There are still the Chinese, Brits, and French. But the latter two would fall into line, wouldn’t they? And the Chinese could be made to see the light through trade negotiations, and besides, what enemies did they have left to worry about?
“Only if people see and understand, Jack.” Durling turned to van Damm. Both of them ignored Jack’s not-quite-spoken additional concerns. “Get the media office working on this. We do the formal announcement in Moscow, Jack?”
Ryan nodded. “That was the deal, sir.” There would be more to it, careful leaks, unconfirmed at first. Congressional briefings to generate more. Quiet calls to various TV networks and trusted reporters who would be in exactly the right places at exactly the right times—difficult because of the ten-hour difference between Moscow and the last American ICBM fields—to record for history the end of the nightmare. The actual elimination process was rather messy, which was why American tree-huggers had such a problem with it. In the case of the Russian birds, the warheads were removed for dismantlement, the missiles drained of their liquid fuels and stripped of valuable and/or classified electronic components, and then one hundred kilograms of high explosives were used to blast open the top of the silo, which in due course would be filled with dirt and leveled off. The American procedure
was different because all the U.S. missiles used solid fuels. In their case, the missile bodies were transported to Utah, where they were opened at both ends; then the rocket motors were ignited and allowed to burn out like the world’s largest highway flares, creating clouds of toxic exhaust that might snuff out the lives of some wild birds. In America the silos would also be blasted open—a United States Circuit Court of Appeals had ruled that the national-security implications of the international arms-control treaty superseded four environmental-protection statutes, despite many legal briefs and protests to the contrary. The final blast would be highly dramatic, all the more so because its force would be about one ten-millionth of what the silo had once represented. Some numbers, and some concepts, Jack reflected, were simply too vast to be appreciated—even by people like himself.
The legend of Damocles had to do with a courtier in the circle of King Dionysius of Sicily, who had waxed eloquent on the good fortune of his king. To make a point in the cruel and heavy-handed way of “great” men, Dionysius had invited his courtier, Damocles, to a sumptuous banquet and sat him in a comfortable place directly under a sword, which in turn was suspended from the ceiling by a thread. The purpose was to demonstrate that the King’s own good fortune was as tenuous as the safety of his guest.
It was the same with America. Everything it had was still under the nuclear sword, a fact made graphically clear to Ryan in Denver not too long before, and for that reason his personal mission since returning to government service had been to put the end to the tale, once and for all.
“You want to handle the press briefings?”
“Yes, Mr. President,” Jack replied, surprised and grateful for Durling’s stunning generosity.
“ ‘Northern Resource Area’?” the Chinese Defense Minister asked. He added dryly, “Interesting way of putting it.”
“So what do you think?” Zhang Han San asked from his side of the table. He was fresh from another meeting with Yamata.