by Tom Clancy
On top of all of that, if you wanted to accomplish anything at all, you had to get here, and having gotten here, to stay here, and that meant making promises you had to keep. At least some of them. And somewhere in the process, the country just got lost, and the Constitution with it, and at the end of the day you were preserving, protecting, and defending—what?
No wonder I never really wanted this job, Durling told himself, sitting alone, looking down at yet another position paper. It was all an accident, really. Bob had needed to carry California, and Durling had been the key, a young, popular governor of the right party affiliation. But now he was the President of the United States, and the fear was that the job was simply beyond him. The sad truth was that no single man had the intellectual capacity even to understand all the affairs the President was expected to manage. Economics, for example, perhaps his most important contemporary duty now that the Soviet Union was gone, was a field where its own practitioners couldn’t agree on a set of rules that a reasonably intelligent man could comprehend.
Well, at least he understood jobs. It was better for people to have them than not to have them. It was, generally speaking, better for a country to manufacture most of its own goods than to let its money go overseas to pay the workers in another country to make them. That was a principle that he could understand, and better yet, a principle that he could explain to others, and since the people to whom he spoke would be Americans themselves, they would probably agree. It would make organized labor happy. It would also make management happy—and wasn’t a policy that made both of them happy necessarily a good policy? It had to be, didn’t it? Wouldn’t it make the economists happy? Moreover, he was convinced that the American worker was as good as any in the world, more than ready to enter into a fair contest with any other, and that was all his policy was really aimed at doing... wasn’t it?
Durling turned in his expensive swivel chair and peered out the thick windows toward the Washington Monument. It must have been a lot easier for George. Okay, so, yeah, he was the first, and he did have to deal with the Whiskey Rebellion, which in the history books didn’t look to have been all that grave, and he had to set the pattern for follow-on presidents. The only taxes collected back then were of the tariff and excise sort—nasty and regressive by current standards, but aimed only at discouraging imports and punishing people for drinking too much. Durling was not really trying to stop foreign trade, just to make it fair. All the way back to Nixon, the U.S. government had caved in to those people, first because we’d needed their bases (as though Japan would really have struck an alliance with their ancient enemies!), later because ... why? Because it had become expedient? Did anyone really know? Well, it would change now, and everyone would know why.
Or rather, Durling corrected himself, they’d think that they knew. Perhaps the more cynical would guess the real reason, and everyone would be partially right.
The Prime Minister’s office in Japan’s Diet Building—a particularly ugly structure in a city not known for the beauty of its architecture—overlooked a green space, but the man sitting in his own expensive swivel chair didn’t care to look out at the moment. Soon enough he would be out there, looking in.
Thirty years, he thought. It could easily have been different. In his late twenties he’d been offered, more than once, a comfortable place in the then-ruling Liberal Democratic Party, with guaranteed upward mobility because even then his intelligence had been manifest, especially to his political enemies. And so they had approached him in the friendliest possible way, appealing to his patriotism and his vision for the future of his country, using that vision, holding it out before his young and idealistic eyes. It would take time, they’d told him, but someday he’d have his chance for this very seat in this very room. Guaranteed. All he had to do was to play ball, become part of the team, join up....
He could still remember his reply, the same every time, delivered in the same tone, with the same words, until finally they’d understood that he wasn’t holding out for more and left for the final time, shaking their heads and wondering why.
All he’d really wanted was for Japan to be a democracy in the true sense of the word, not a place run by a single party beholden in turn to a small number of powerful men. Even thirty years earlier the signs of corruption had been clear to anyone with open eyes, but the voters, the ordinary people, conditioned to two thousand years or more of acceptance, had just gone along with it because the roots of real democracy hadn’t taken here any more than the roots of a rice plant in the pliable alluvium of a paddy. That was the grandest of all lies, so grand that it was believed by everyone within his country as well as without. The culture of his country hadn’t really changed. Oh, yes, there were the cosmetic changes. Women could vote now, but like women in every other country they voted their pocketbooks, just as their men did, and they, like their men, were part of a culture that demanded obeisance of everyone in one way or another. What came down from on high was to be accepted, and because of that his countrymen were easily manipulated.
The bitterest thing of all for the Prime Minister was that he had actually thought he’d be able to change that. His true vision, admitted to none but himself, was to change his country in a real and fundamental way. Somehow it hadn’t seemed grandiose at all, back then. In exposing and crushing official corruption he’d wanted to make the people see that those on high were not worthy of what they demanded, that ordinary citizens had the honor and decency and intelligence to choose both their own path for life and a government that responded more directly to their needs.
You actually believed that, fool, he told himself, staring at the telephone. The dreams and idealism of youth died pretty hard after all, didn’t they? He’d seen it all then, and it hadn’t changed. Only now he knew that it wasn’t possible for one man and one generation. Now he knew that to make change happen he needed economic stability at home, and that stability depended on using the old order, and the old system was corrupt. The real irony was that he’d come into office because of the failings of the old system, but at the same time needed to restore it so that he could then sweep it away. That was what he hadn’t quite understood. The old system had pressed the Americans too hard, reaping economic benefits for his country such as the Black Dragons hadn’t dreamed of, and when the Americans had reacted, in some ways fairly and well and in others unfairly and mean-spirited, the conditions had been created for his own ascendancy. But the voters who’d made it possible for him to put his coalition together expected him to make things better for them, and quickly, and to do that he couldn’t easily give more concessions to America that would worsen his own country’s economic difficulties, and so he’d tried to stone-wall on one hand while dealing on the other, and now he knew that it wasn’t possible to do both at the same time. It required the sort of skill which no man had.
And his enemies knew that. They’d known it three years ago when he’d put his coalition together, waiting patiently for him to fail, and his ideals with him. The American actions merely affected the timing, not the ultimate outcome.
Could he fix it even now? By lifting the phone he could place a call through to Roger Durling and make a personal plea to head off the new American law, to undertake rapid negotiations. But that wouldn’t work, would it? Durling would lose great face were he to do that, and though America deemed it a uniquely Japanese concept, it was as true for them as it was for him. Even worse, Durling would not believe his sincerity. The well was so poisoned by a generation of previous bad-faith negotiations that there was no reason for the Americans to suppose that things were different now—and, truth be known, he probably could not really deliver in any case. His parliamentary coalition would not survive the concessions he would have to make, because jobs were at stake, and with his national unemployment rate at an all-time high of over 5 percent, he did not have the political strength to risk increasing it further. And so, because he could not survive the political effects of such an offer, something even worse w
ould happen, and he would not survive that either. It was only a question, really, of whether he would destroy his own political career or let someone else do it for him. Which was the greater disgrace? He didn’t know.
He did know that he could not bring himself to make the telephone call to his American counterpart. It would have been an exercise in futility, just like his entire career, he now realized. The book was already written. Let someone else provide the final chapter.
11
Sea Change
The Trade Reform Act by now had two hundred bipartisan cosponsors. Committee hearings had been unusually brief, largely because few had the courage to testify against it. Remarkably, a major Washington public-relations firm terminated its contract with a Japanese conglomerate, and since it was a PR firm, put out a press release to that effect announcing the end of a fourteen-year relationship. The combination of the event at Oak Ridge and Al Trent’s often-quoted barb at a senior lobbyist had made life most uncomfortable for those in foreign employ who stalked the halls of Congress. Lobbyists didn’t impede the bill at all. As a man, they reported back to their employers that the bill simply could not fail passage, that any disabling changes in the bill were quite impossible, and the only possible reaction to it would be to take the long view and ride it out. In time, their friends in Congress would be able to support them again, just not now.
Just not now? The cynical definition of a good politician was the same in Japan as it was in America: a public servant who, once bought, stayed bought. The employers thought of all the money contributed to so many campaign funds, the thousand-dollar dinner-plates covered with mediocre food bought by (actually for) American employees of their multinational corporations, the trips to golf courses, the entertainment on fact-finding trips to Japan and elsewhere, the personal contact—and realized that all of it mattered not a bit the one time that it really mattered. America just wasn’t like Japan at all. Its legislators didn’t feel the obligation to pay back, and the lobbyists, also bought and paid for, told them that it had to be this way. What, then, had they spent all that money for?
Take the long view? The long view was all well and good, so long as the immediate prospect was pleasant and uncluttered. Circumstances had permitted Japan the long view for nearly forty years. But today it no longer applied. On Wednesday, the Fourth, the day the Trade Reform Act cleared committee, the Nikkei Dow fell to 12,841 yen, roughly a third of what it had been in recent memory, and the panic in the country was quite real now.
“ ‘Plum blossoms bloom, and pleasure-women buy new scarves in a brothel room.’ ”
The words might have been poetic in Japanese—it was a famous haiku—but it didn’t make a hell of a lot of sense in English, Clark thought. At least not to him, but the effect on the man in front of him was noteworthy. “Oleg Yurievich sends his greetings.”
“It has been a long time,” the man stammered after perhaps five seconds of well-concealed panic.
“Things have been difficult at home,” Clark explained, a slight accent in his voice.
Isamu Kimura was a senior official in the Ministry for International Trade and Industry, MITI, the centerpiece of an enterprise once called “Japan, Inc.” As such he often met with foreigners, especially foreign reporters, and so he had accepted the invitation of Ivan Sergeyevich Klerk, newly arrived in Japan from Moscow, complete with a photographer who was elsewhere shooting pictures.
“It would seem to be a difficult time for your country as well,” Klerk added, wondering what sort of reaction it would get. He had to be a little tough with the guy. It was possible that he’d resist the idea of being reactivated after more than two years of no contacts. If so, KGB policy was to make it clear that once they had their hooks into you, those hooks never went away. It was also CIA policy, of course.
“It’s a nightmare,” Kimura said after a few seconds’ reflection and a deep draft of the sake on the table.
“If you think the Americans are difficult, you should be a Russian. The country in which I grew up, which nurtured and trained me—is no more. Do you realize that I must actually support myself with my Interfax work? I can’t even perform my duties on a full-time basis.” Clark shook his head ruefully and emptied his own cup.
“Your English is excellent.”
The “Russian” nodded politely, taking the remark as surrender on the part of the man across the table. “Thank you. I worked for years in New York, covering the U.N. for Pravda. Among other things,” he added.
“Really?” Kimura asked. “What do you know of American business and politics?”
“1 specialized in commercial work. The new world’s circumstances allow me to pursue it with even more vigor, and your services are highly valued by my country. We will be able to reward you even more in the future, my friend.”
Kimura shook his head. “I have no time for that now. My office is in a very confused state, for obvious reasons.”
“I understand. This meeting is in the manner of a get-acquainted session. We have no immediate demands.”
“And how is Oleg?” the MITI official asked.
“He has a good life now, a very comfortable position because of the fine work you did for him.” Which wasn’t a lie at all. Lyalin was alive, and that beat the hell out of a bullet to the head in the basement of KGB Headquarters. This man was the agent who’d given Lyalin the information which had placed them in Mexico. It seemed a shame to Clark that he couldn’t thank the man personally for his part in averting a nuclear war. “So tell me, in my reporter identity: how bad is the situation with America? I have a story to file, you see.” The answer would surprise him almost as much as the vehemence of its tone.
Isamu Kimura looked down. “It could bring ruin to us.”
“Is it really that bad?” “Klerk” asked in surprise, taking out his pad to make notes like a good reporter.
“It will mean a trade war.” It was all the man could do to speak that one sentence.
“Well, such a war will do harm to both countries, yes?” Clark had heard that one often enough that he actually believed it.
“We’ve been saying that for years, but it’s a lie. It’s really very simple,” Kimura went on, assuming that this Russian needed an education in the capitalist facts of life, not knowing that he was an American who did. “We need their market to sell our manufactured goods. Do you know what a trade war means? It means that they stop buying our manufactured goods, and that they keep their money. That money will go into their own industries, which we have trained, after a fashion, to be more efficient. Those industries will grow and prosper by following our example, and in doing so they will regain market share in areas which we have dominated for twenty years. If we lose our market position, we may never get it all back.”
“And why is that?” Clark asked, scribbling furiously and finding himself actually quite interested.
“When we entered the American market, the yen had only about a third of the value it has today. That enabled us to be highly competitive in our pricing. Then as we established a place within the American market, achieved brand-name recognition, and so forth, we were able to increase our prices while retaining our market share, even expanding it in many areas despite the increasing value of the yen. To accomplish the same thing today would be far more difficult.”
Fabulous news, Clark thought behind a studiously passive face. “But will they be able to replace all the things you make for them?”
“Through their own workers? All of them? Probably not, but they don’t have to. Last year automobiles and related products accounted for sixty-one percent of our trade with America. The Americans know how to make cars—what they did not know we have taught them,” Kimura said, leaning forward. “In other areas, cameras for example, they are now made elsewhere, Singapore, Korea, Malaysia. The same is true of consumer electronics. Klerk-san, nobody really understands what is happening yet.”
“The Americans can really do this much damage to you? Is it possible?�
� Damn, Clark thought, maybe it was.
“It is very possible. My country has not faced such a possibility since 1941.” The statement was accidental, but Kimura noted the accuracy of it the instant it escaped his lips.
“I can’t put that in a news story. It’s too alarmist.”
Kimura looked up. “That was not meant for a news story. I know your agency has contacts with the Americans. It has to. They are not listening to us now. Perhaps they will listen to you. They push us too far. The zaibatsu are truly desperate. It’s happened too fast and gone too far. How would your country respond to such an attack on your economy?”
Clark leaned back, tilting his head and narrowing his eyes as a Russian would. The initial contact with Kimura wasn’t supposed to have been a substantive intelligence-gathering session, but it had suddenly turned into one. Unprepared for this eventuality, he decided to run with it anyway. The man before him seemed like a prime source, and made more so by his desperation. Moreover, he seemed like a good and dedicated public servant, and if that was somewhat sad, it was also the way the intelligence business worked.
“They did do it to us, in the 1980s. Their arms buildup, their insane plan to put defense systems in space, the reckless brinksmanship game their President Reagan played—did you know that when I was working in New York, I was part of Project RYAN? We thought he planned to strike us. I spent a year looking for such plans.” Colonel I. S. Klerk of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service was fully in his cover identity now, speaking as a Russian would, calmly, quietly, almost pedagogically. “But we looked in the wrong place—no, that wasn’t it. It was right in front of us all the time and we failed to see it. They forced us to spend more, and they broke our economy in the process. Marshal Ogarkov gave his speech, demanding more of the economy in order to keep up with the Americans, but there was no more to give. To answer your question briefly, Isamu, we had the choice of surrender or war. War was too terrible to contemplate ... and so, here I am in Japan, representing a new country.”