by Tom Clancy
“So where’s the patrol line?” Jones asked, pushing the envelope again.
“Along 165-East for the moment,” Admiral Mancuso said, pointing at the chart. “We’re thin, Jonesy. Before I commit them to battle, I want them to get used to the idea. I want the COs to drill their people up. You’re never ready enough, Ron. Never.”
“True,” the civilian conceded. He’d come over with SOSUS printouts to demonstrate that all known submarine contacts were off the screen. Two hydrophone arrays that were operated from the island of Guam were no longer available. Though connected by undersea cable to the rest of the network, they’d evidently been turned off by the monitoring facility on Guam, and nobody at Pearl had yet been able to trick them back on. The good news was that a backup array off Samar in the Philippines was still operating, but it could not detect the Japanese SSKs shown by satellite to be replenishing off Agana. They’d even gotten a good count. Probably, Mancuso thought. The Japanese still painted the hull numbers on the sails, and the satellite cameras could read them. Unless the Japanese, like the Russians and then the Americans, had learned to spoof reconnaissance efforts by playing with the numbers—or simply erased them entirely.
“It would be nice to have a few more fast-attacks, wouldn’t it?” Jones observed after a minute’s contemplation of the chart.
“Sure would. Maybe if we can get some direction from Washington ...” His voice trailed off, and Mancuso thought a little more. The location of every sub under his command was marked with a black silhouette, even the ones in overhaul status. Those were marked in white, showing availability dates, which was not much help at the moment. But there were five such silhouettes at Bremerton, weren’t there?
The Special Report card appeared on all the major TV networks. In every case the hushed voice of an anchorperson told people that their network shows would be interrupted by a speech from the President about the economic crisis with which his administration had been dealing since the weekend. Then came the Presidential Seal. Those who had been following the events were surprised to see the President smiling.
“Good evening.
“My fellow Americans, last week we saw a major event take place in the American financial system.
“I want to begin my report to you by saying that the American economy is strong. Now”—he smiled—“that may seem a strange pronouncement given all that you’ve heard in the media and elsewhere. But let me tell you why that is so. I’ll start off with a question:
“What has changed? American workers are still making cars in Detroit and elsewhere. American workers are still making steel. Kansas farmers have their winter wheat in and are preparing for a new planting season. They’re still making computers in the Silicon Valley. They’re still making tires in Akron. Boeing is still making airplanes. They’re still pumping oil out of the ground in Texas and Alaska. They’re still mining coal in West Virginia. All the things you were doing a week ago, you are still doing. So what has changed?
“What changed was this: some electrons traveled along some copper wires, telephone lines like this one”—the President held up a phone cord and tossed it aside on his desk—“and that’s all,” he went on in the voice of a good, smart neighbor come to the house to offer some kindly advice. “Not one person has lost his life. Not a single business has lost a building. The wealth of our nation is unchanged. Nothing has gone away.
“And yet, my fellow Americans, we have begun to panic—over what?
“In the past four days we have determined that a deliberate attempt was made to tamper with the U.S. financial markets. The United States Department of Justice, with the assistance of some good Americans within those markets, is now building a criminal case against the people responsible for that. I cannot go further at the moment because even your President does not have the right to tamper with the right of any person to a fair and impartial trial. But we do know what happened and we do know that what happened is entirely artificial.
“Now, what are we going to do about it?” Roger Durling asked.
“The financial markets have been closed all week. They will reopen at noon on Friday and ...”
33
Reversal Points
“It can’t possibly work,” Kozo Matsuda said over the translation. “Raizo’s plan was perfect—better than perfect,” he went on, talking as much to himself as the telephone receiver. Before the crash he’d worked in conjunction with a banker associate to use the opportunity to cash in on the T-Bill transactions, which had gone a long way to recapitalizing his troubled conglomerate. It had also made his cash account yen-heavy in the face of international obligations. But that was not a problem, was it? Not with the renewed strength of the yen and corresponding weakness of the American dollar. It might even make sense, he thought, to purchase American interests through intermediaries—a good strategic move once the American equities market resumed its free fall.
“When do the European markets open?” Somehow in the excitement of the moment he couldn’t remember.
“London is nine hours behind us. Germany and Holland are eight. Four this afternoon,” the man on the other end of the phone said. “Our people have their instructions.” And those were clear: to use the renewed power of their national currency to buy as many European equities as possible so that when the financial panic ended, two or three years from now, Japan would be so enmeshed in that multinational economy as to be a totally integral part of it; so vital to their survival that separation would run the renewed danger of financial collapse. And they wouldn’t risk that, not after recovery from the worst economic crisis in three generations, and certainly not after Japan had played so important and selfless a part in restoring prosperity to three hundred million Europeans. It was troubling that the Americans suspected a hand in what had taken place, but Yamata-san had assured them all that no records could possibly exist—wasn’t that the masterstroke of the entire event, the elimination of records and their replacement with chaos? Businesses could not operate without precise financial records of their transactions, and denied those, they simply stopped. Rebuilding them would require weeks or months, Matsuda was sure, during which time the paralysis would allow Japan—more precisely, his fellow zaibatsu—to cash in, in addition to the brilliant strategic moves Yamata had executed through their government agencies. The integrated nature of the plan was the reason why all his fellows had signed on to it.
“It really doesn’t matter, Kozo. We took Europe down, too, and the only liquidity left in the world is ours.”
“Good one, Boss,” Ryan said, leaning on the doorframe.
“A long way to go,” Durling said, leaving his chair and heading out of the Oval Office before saying anything more. The President and National Security Advisor headed into the White House proper, past the technicians who alone had been allowed in. It wasn’t time to face reporters yet.
“It’s amazing how philosophical it is,” Jack said as they took the elevator to the residential floor.
“Metaphysics, eh? You did go to a Jesuit school, didn’t you?”
“Three, actually. What is reality?” Jack asked rhetorically. “Reality to them is electrons and computer screens, and if there’s one thing I learned on the Street, it’s that they don’t know investments worth a damn. Except Yamata, I suppose.”
“Well, he did all right, didn’t he?” Durling asked.
“He should have left the records alone. If he’d left us in free-fall ...” Ryan shrugged. “It might just have kept going. It just never occurred to him that we might not play by his rules.” And that, Jack told himself, would be the key to everything. The President’s speech had been a fine mix of things said and unsaid, and the targeting of the speech had been precise. It had been, in fact, the first PsyOp of a war.
“The press can’t stay dumb forever.”
“I know.” Ryan even knew where the leak would start, and the only reason it hadn’t happened already was the FBI. “But we need to keep them dumb just a little long
er.”
It started cautiously, not really as part of any operational plan at all, but more as a precursor to one. Four B-1B Lancer bombers lifted off from Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska, followed by two KC-10 tankers. The combination of latitude and time of year guaranteed darkness. Their bomb bays were fitted with fuel tanks instead of weapons. Each aircraft had a crew of four, pilot and copilot, plus two systems operators.
The Lancer was a sleek aircraft, a bomber equipped with a fighter’s stick instead of a more conventional control yoke, and pilots who had flown both said that the B-1B felt and flew like a slightly heavy F-4 Phantom, its greater weight and larger size giving the bomber greater stability and, for now, a smoother ride. For the moment the staggered formation of six flew international route R-220, maintaining the lateral spacing expected of commercial air traffic.
A thousand miles and two hours out, passing Shemya and leaving ground-control radar coverage, the six aircraft turned north briefly. The tankers held steady while the bombers one by one eased underneath to take on fuel, a procedure that lasted about twelve minutes in each case. Finished, the bombers continued southwest while the tankers turned to land at Shemya, where they would refill their own tanks.
The four bombers descended to twenty-five thousand feet, which took them below the regular stream of commercial air traffic and allowed more freedom of maneuver. They continued close to R-220, the westernmost of the commercial flight tracks, skimming down past the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Systems were flipped on in the back. Though designed as a penetrating bomber, the B-1B fulfilled many roles, one of which was electronic intelligence. The body of any military aircraft is studded with small structures that look for all the world like the fins on fish. These objects are invariably antennas of one sort or another, and the graceful fairing has no more sinister purpose than to reduce drag. The Lancer had many of them, designed to gather in radar and other electronic signals and pass them along to internal equipment, which analyzed the data. Some of the work was done in real-time by the flight crew. The idea was for the bomber to monitor hostile radar, the better to allow its crew to avoid detection and deliver its bombs.
At the NOGAL reporting point, about three hundred miles outside the Japanese Air Defense Identification Zone, the bombers split into a patrol line, with roughly fifty miles separating the aircraft, and descended to ten thousand feet. Crewmen rubbed their hands together, pulled their seat belts a little tighter, and started concentrating. Cockpit chatter lessened to that required by the mission, and tape recorders were flipped on. Satellite monitoring told them that the Japanese Air Force had airborne-early-warning aircraft, E-767s, operating almost continuously, and those were the defensive assets that the bomber crews feared most. Flying high, the E-767s could see far. Mobile, they could move to deal with threats with a high degree of efficiency. Worst of all, they invariably operated in conjunction with fighters, and fighters had eyes in them, and behind the eyes were brains, and weapons with brains in them were the most frightening of all.
“Okay, there’s the first one,” one of the systems operators said. It wasn’t really the first. For practice of sorts, they’d calibrated their equipment on Russian air-defense radars, but for the first time in the collective memory of all sixteen airmen, it wasn’t Russian radars and fighters which concerned them. “Low-frequency, fixed, known location.”
They were receiving what operators often called “fuzz.” The radar in question was under the horizon and too far away to detect their semistealthy aircraft. As you can see a person holding a flashlight long before the light reveals your presence to the holder, so it was with radar. The powerful transmitter was as much a warning beacon to unwanted guests as a lookout for its owners. The location, frequency, pulse-repetition rate, and estimated power of the radar was noted and logged. A display on the electronic-warfare officer’s board showed the coverage for that radar. The display was repeated on the pilot’s console, with the danger area marked in red. He’d stay well clear of it.
“Next,” the EWO said. “Wow, talk about power—this one’s airborne. Must be one of their new ones. It’s definitely moving south-to-north, now bearing two-zero-two.”
“Copy,” the pilot acknowledged quietly, his eyes scanning all around the dark sky. The Lancer was really proceeding on autopilot, but his right hand was only inches from the stick, ready to jerk the bomber to the left, dive to the deck, and go to burner. There were fighters somewhere off to his right, probably two F-15s, but they would stay close to E-767s.
“Another one, one-nine-five, just appeared ... different freq and—stand by,” the electronics officer said. “Okay, major frequency change. He’s probably in an over-the-horizon mode now.”
“Could he have us?” the pilot asked, checking his avoidance screen again. Outside the red keep-out zone was a yellow section that the pilot thought of as the “maybe” zone. They were at most a few minutes away from entering that zone, and “maybe” seemed very worrisome indeed at the moment, nearly three thousand miles from Elmendorf Air Force Base.
“Not sure. It’s possible. Recommend we come left,” the EWO said judiciously. On that advice, he felt the aircraft bank five degrees. The mission wasn’t about taking risks. It was about gathering information, as a gambler would observe a table before taking his seat and putting his chips in play.
“I think there’s somebody out there,” one of the E-767 operators said. “Zero-one-five, southerly course. Hard to hold it.”
The rotodome atop the E-767 was like few others in the world, and all of them were Japanese. Three of them were operating on the eastern approaches to their country. Transmitting up to three million watts of electrical energy, it had four times the power of anything the Americans had aloft, but the true sophistication of the system lay not in its power but in its mode of delivery. Essentially a smaller version of the SPY radar carried on the Kongo-class destroyers, the array was composed of thousands of solid-state diodes that could scan both electronically and mechanically, and jump in frequency to suit the needs of the moment. For long-range detection, a relatively low frequency was best. However, though the waves curved around the visible horizon somewhat, it was at the cost of poor resolution. The operator was getting a hit on only every third sweep or so. The system software had not yet learned to distinguish clutter from the purposeful activities of a human mind, at least not in all cases, and not, unfortunately, at this frequency setting....
“Are you sure?” the senior controller asked over the intercom line. He’d just called up the display himself and didn’t see anything yet.
“Here.” The first man moved his cursor and marked the contact when it reappeared. He wished they could improve that software. “Wait! Look here!” He selected another blip and marked it, too. It disappeared almost at once but came back in fifteen seconds. “See, southerly course—speed five hundred knots.”
“Excellent.” The senior controller activated his radio microphone and reported to his ground station that Japanese air defenses were being probed for the first time. The only surprise, really, was that it had taken them so long. This is where things get interesting, he thought, wondering what would happen next, now that the games had begun.
“No more of those Es?” the pilot asked.
“No, just the two. I thought I had a little fuzz a minute ago,” the EWO said, “but it faded out.” He didn’t need to explain that with the sensitivity of his instruments, he was probably getting readings on garage-door openers as well. A moment later another ground radar was plotted. The patrol line angled back west one by one as they passed the coverage of the two E-767s, still on a southwesterly base course, now halfway down the largest home island, Honshu, which was well over three hundred miles to their right. The copilots of each of the four aircraft looked exclusively west now, while the aircraft commanders scanned for possible air traffic to their front. It was tense but routine, not unlike driving through a neighborhood in which one didn’t want to live. So long as the lights
were all green, you didn’t get too worried—but you didn’t like the looks your car got.
The crew of the third E-767 was unhappy, and their fighter escorts even more so. Enemy aircraft were looking at their coastline, and even if they were six hundred kilometers out, they still didn’t belong in the neighborhood. But they switched their radar systems to standby. Probably EC-135s, they thought, surveillance aircraft, assembling an electronic order of battle for their country. And if the American mission were to gather information, then the smart thing to do was to deny them the information they wanted. And it was easy to do, or so the radar-controller officers told themselves.
We’ll go closer in the next time, the aircraft commander told himself. First electronics experts would have to examine the data and try to determine what was and what wasn’t safe, betting the lives of fellow Air Force officers with their conclusions. That was a happy thought. The crew relaxed, yawned, and started talking, mainly about the mission and what they had learned. Four and a half hours back to Elmendorf, and a shower, and some mandated crew rest.
The Japanese controllers were still not completely sure that they’d had contacts at all, but that would be determined by examining their onboard tapes. Their patrol patterns returned to their normal monitoring of commercial air traffic, and a few comments were exchanged on why the devil that traffic still continued. The answers were mainly shrugs and raised eyebrows and even more uncertainty than had existed when they’d thought they were tracking contacts. There was just something about looking at a radar screen for more than a few hours. Sooner or later your imagination took over, and the more you thought about it, the worse it got. But that, they knew, was the same for the other side in the game, too.