“There will be those who will want a limited victory, a truce rather than unconditional surrender. To those people, I say that these are the days in which empire are formed. Will it be us, with our freedom and self-determination, or Wolfbane’s corporate tyranny that determines the shape of the future? If we lose this war, freedom itself will vanish from the galaxy. We will fight and we will win.”
She stopped speaking and waited. The crowd went wild, cheering her words and shouting their outrage and hatred of Wolfbane into the skies. Emmanuel allowed himself a tight smile, even though he knew the coming war would be very bad. But there was no alternative to fighting, he recognised. Governor Brown was unlikely to be content with just a handful of worlds. No, he'd come for them all.
Afterwards, he approached Colonel Stalker before the Marine could make his escape. The Colonel looked unsurprised to see him, merely ... irked. Emmanuel asked the question as quickly as possible, as soon as they were out of earshot of the crowd.
“Colonel,” he said, “what happened to Jasmine?”
“She's been taken prisoner,” the Colonel said, quietly. “We don’t know what will happen to her.”
Emmanuel stared at him. “But ...”
“I believe she will cope with the situation,” the Colonel assured him. “And she may well find a chance to escape. But until then ...”
“I understand,” Emmanuel said. “I’ll wait for her.”
***
Two kilometres away, a pair of grim eyes watched the newscast as the reporters competed with one another to come up with the vilest names and suggestions for Wolfbane. The watcher couldn't help finding it more than a little amusing, even if it was completely uncontrolled. It would have to be changed in the future, she knew. The mindless sheep who made up the vast majority of the galaxy’s population needed to have their opinions steered in the right direction, not allowed to pick and choose what information and attitudes they wanted to listen to for themselves. Not, in the end, that it would matter.
The spy allowed herself to relax. No one had come near her, not as far as she had been able to determine; she was, in their eyes, a complete non-entity. But now ... she could finally begin to retake what had been hers by right, no matter the cost. She hadn't spent years on Earth, trying to build up a power base, just to abandon her dreams completely when the Empire collapsed. No, she still wanted power. And she was damned if she was abandoning her quest now.
She sat up and poured herself a glass of sherry. Let the mindless sheep call for war, she told herself, even though there had been defeats rather than victories. They’d be disillusioned soon enough when Wolfbane arrived, forcing the entire planet to surrender. And she would be waiting to step back into the limelight and take power for herself. This time, she wouldn't be dependent on a well-meaning, but inept husband. This time, she would rule in her own right.
Maybe she would be a satrap, she conceded. But she would still have power.
And, in the end, power made it all worthwhile.
***
Governor Brown sat alone in his office on Wolfbane, thinking hard.
The first reports had come in, hard on the heels of an official note from Avalon that had been so undiplomatic that he’d been surprised it hadn't burst into flame. Someone had attempted to assassinate the President of the Commonwealth ... and he was being blamed. But why would he have attempted to kill someone he wanted to negotiate with? If Gaby Cracker had seen sense, she could have taken on a high position within his administration. He would have welcomed someone with so much ability to get hated enemies to work together.
Instead, she’d been shot – and wounded – and he had a war on his hands.
It was more than he’d wanted, he knew. There had been nothing personal in the war – or at least there hadn’t been. Now, Gaby Cracker and her subjects wanted revenge; they were unlikely to see sense and make concessions, rather than force him to crush the Commonwealth completely. And yet he hadn't ordered the assassination attempt. Maybe it had been one of her political rivals, he wondered, or maybe it had been a lone wolf. It wouldn't be the first time someone, acting completely on their own, had attempted to kill a major political figure.
Or had it been someone else?
He wasn't blind to the ambitions of his underlings. Some of them wanted power for themselves, others wanted to restore the Empire. Either motive would give them a reason to try to lash out at him, to take power ... or to provoke a war. So far, Wolfbane had been victorious at very little cost. But it wouldn't be long before the Commonwealth and the Trade Federation began striking back. The war was far from over.
Bitterly, he shook his head. There was no point crying over spilt milk. Instead, he would have to bend every effort to win the war before it was too late. If nothing else, the advances the Commonwealth had shown were truly worrying. What would happen if they were given time to put their new developments into mass production? No, the war had to be won ... which would make him all the more dependent on his military advisors.
Standing up, he walked over to the window and peered out over Wolfbane’s skyline. So far, the locals knew nothing about the war, but that would change soon enough. How would they react, he asked himself, once they knew the truth? Would they be pleased that their empire was winning battles or would they fear the outbreak of interstellar war? Perhaps they would be both, he thought sourly. Winning battles was always popular. But long wars were never so welcome.
We’ll just have to win, he told himself. The alternative is unthinkable.
But he couldn't help the feeling that he’d started something he could no longer control.
***
The transport might not have been designed for prisoners, Jasmine decided, but it did the job admirably. It was nothing more than a starship hold, lined with solid metal, with an isolated life support system and a small amount of ration bars. There was no way in or out, save for a hatch that would need a cutting laser or a molecular debonder to break. The prisoners had nothing, but their bare hands.
Jasmine had organised them as best as she could, once the hatch had been closed. Morale had been low, but she’d talked to her subordinates and encouraged them, all the while contemplating ways to escape. In some ways, she felt better about no longer being responsible for the CEF, being responsible for actually running a large-scale war. Now, she could forget the bigger picture and concentrate on escape.
Her interview with General Haverford – her second interview, technically – had been brief, formal and edgy. He’d promised to ensure that the Commonwealth received a list of prisoners, then admitted that the POWs were being sent to an isolated stage-one colony world. Jasmine wasn't too surprised. Putting POWs on Wolfbane itself, no matter the security, might well have been asking for trouble. But an isolated world ... they couldn't cause much trouble there. Or so Wolfbane might have good reason to believe.
She looked around the compartment, illuminated by a single light source embedded in the metal, and smiled to herself. She knew next to nothing about Meridian, but she knew one thing. It wouldn't be enough to hold her and her personnel. They would escape, then .. they would make their way home.
The thought made her smile, despite the sad tinge that came with it. Avalon was home now, no matter where she’d been born. And the Commonwealth was worth defending.
She closed her eyes and made a silent vow. I shall return.
To Be Continued ...
Coming Up: Belinda Lawson will be sucked into a political quagmire as dark factions plot to take advantage of the Empire’s fall in The Thin Blue Line, while the Commonwealth-Wolfbane War continues in Never Surrender.
All Comments and Reviews welcome.
Afterword for Retreat Hell
There is an unspoken and unchallenged assumption in society – particularly those parts of society content to have their history and current affairs spoon-fed to them – that only crazy or stupid people start wars. Such versions of history demonise people who start wars – not always, I wil
l admit, without good cause. But such versions of history choose to skip over the reasons someone might conclude that war is actually a good idea. The concept of the warmonger actually being a rational actor is too disturbing to contemplate.
In some cases, this is not surprising. Adolf Hitler has been demonised, with very good reason, so badly that anyone who suggests that Hitler was right to go to war is automatically branded a Nazi-sympathiser. This may be understandable, but it is not conductive to good and careful consideration of the background to any given war. We prefer to think of Hitler as crazy. But this forces us to overlook the simple fact that Imperial Germany also went to war in 1914 and modern-day Germany is slowly moving to dominate the EU.
Is there, therefore, something wrong with the state of Germany? Or are there deeper factors at work?
Let us consider the German position. Prior to German Unification (after the Franco-Prussian War) Germany was effectively a battleground, fought over by France, Austria and Russia. None of the German states could muster the military power to keep themselves out of the fighting, or to prevent their destruction by their stronger neighbours. Once the Germans united, they possessed greater power than any of their neighbours – but did they possess greater power than all of their neighbours?
Seen from Berlin, Germany was encircled by hostile powers. While Austria was largely neutralised (and fought on the same side in the Great War), France and Russia were irreconcilable enemies. German planners concluded that they might beat France, only to be stabbed in the back by Russia (or vice versa). In fact, both France and Russia were growing stronger as Germany moved into 1914 – and France and Britain had concluded an alliance that bound them together against Germany. From the German point of view, there would be war – and it was better for Germany that the war came sooner, rather than later.
To us, looking back over eighty years of history, this seems absurd. History records that Germany lost the Great War, after four years of bloody slaughter, and Imperial Germany vanished from Europe. But Germany itself did not die and the Allies failed to splinter it into its component fragments. It was unsurprising that Germany would grow powerful once again and seek to avenge itself on Europe. Hitler was, in this view, nothing more than a tool of history. His decisions were taken within a framework that existed outside of his regime.
The same could be said, to some extent, for Imperial Japan prior to Pearl Harbour. Japan had good reason to feel constrained – and good reason to view the American build-up with alarm. US sanctions on Japan were forcing the Japanese into a corner. They could either seek a decision through war or submit tamely to American demands. In hindsight, the latter seems the better option; in foresight, it was far less clear-cut. If the Japanese conceded to the US, they asked themselves, what guaranteed that the US would not make further demands? One simple rule of life is that giving into blackmail invites more blackmail. Why should the Japanese have conceded anything?
I imagine that a few readers will write angry comments about Imperial Japan being a thoroughly unpleasant state, one deserving of sanctions. The Japanese Army looted, raped and burned its way across China. When unleashed to the south, they carried out a series of atrocities that outdid the Nazis themselves. I am not disputing any of that, but the morality or lack thereof of any specific point in history is immaterial. The point is that Japan was constrained and tried to break out. This should have been predictable to planners in Washington, London and Moscow.
However, the Japanese were quite unable to actually win their war. They could not hope to out-produce the United States, they could not occupy American territory and they could not destroy the American factories that became the arsenal of democracy. Nor, for that matter, could they occupy Britain or Russia. The constraints that forced Japan to choose between war and submission were, in the end, fatal to Imperial Japan. In short, the course of World War Two was largely determined by geopolitics.
***
Defining geopolitics is a complicated business. It is the interaction between dozens of factors that determine a country’s relative strength compared to other countries. Some of these factors are immutable, while others can change depending on technology, investment and even government and attitudes.
Let us consider, for example, the treacherous maps that show Canada as being largely equal in land surface to the United States. A more careful look would reveal that the vast majority of Canada’s population lives to the south. Furthermore, Canada’s military is in no way comparable to the United States, being outclassed in almost every category. Put bluntly, the United States is vastly more powerful than Canada and this is unlikely to change in the near future.
A second deceptive map would show Russia. Russia is one of the largest countries on Earth, but much of its interior is undeveloped, slowing the country’s economic growth. In some ways, the sheer size of Russia works to its advantage (in absorbing invading armies) but in others it makes it hard for the Russians to mobilise their potential resources. Russia requires massive investment in infrastructure before it can begin to live up to its potential. However, this required a level of investment that neither the Tsars nor the USSR was able to provide.
Russia is actually indicative of geopolitical factors that can change with stunning speed. In 1914, the Russian Army was regarded poorly after the disasters of the Russo-Japanese War; the Germans calculated (wrongly) that the Russians couldn’t mobilise in time to save France from defeat. Russia’s defeat and the rise of the communist regime meant that Russia was largely excluded from post-war settlements. In 1939, the Russian failure to crush Finland turned them into a laughing stock, convincing Hitler that the Russians were a paper tiger and encouraging him to attack the USSR. But, by the end of 1945, the Red Army was feared throughout Europe.
And yet, when the USSR collapsed, the Russian Army collapsed with it. During the Yeltsin years, once again, NATO acted without regard for Russian feelings, let alone their geopolitical priorities. This led directly to Putin’s determination to re-establish Russian predominance in Eastern Europe, a program that has proved highly successful.
***
Each country has a set of geopolitical priorities that it must maintain to keep itself safe and unconstrained. It was these geopolitical priorities that convinced Imperial Germany (and later Hitler) that war would come – and better it be fought sooner than later. After all, if both France and Russia grew stronger, Germany would be trapped between them. When a country fails to take care of its geopolitical priorities, the country is imperilled.
These patterns exist regardless of the government. Russian history shows the same pattern repeated by Tsars, Communists and Putin’s brand of quasi-fascism. All three of them have moved to keep control of the countries surrounding Russia, knowing that failure to do so causes problems for Russia – and eventual disaster. This seems thoroughly unpleasant of the Russians; their post-WW2 domination of Eastern Europe was neither desired nor gentle. But the Russians, following their geopolitical priories, had no choice. The states that made up the Warsaw Pact were, in effect, colonies that shielded Russian territory from invaders.
It shouldn't surprise anyone, sadly, that the advance of NATO eastwards was viewed with alarm by Russia – and that they would take every opportunity they could find to undermine NATO’s position, reputation and general trustworthiness. NATO meant no harm – but, from the Russian point of view, its advance eastwards was constraining ... and threatening.
***
The study of national and international geopolitics, thus, is vitally important. If you understand a country’s geopolitics, you can predict, to some extent, just which way that country will jump. The government may be led by a seeming madman, the population might be roused by cries of ‘death to America,’ but they are often more rational than they seem.
Let us consider North Korea. The pattern of each successive nuclear crisis is largely identical. North Korea rattles the sabre, everyone takes them seriously for a while ... and then the whole crisis quieten
s down. There has been no repeat of the Korean War, at least partly because the North Korean Government understands that such a war might lead to their complete destruction.
Or let us look at Iraq and Iran. Saddam’s government repressed both the Shia and Kurds savagely. This was noted in the West, with appropriate sounds of horror, but the deeper implications were ignored. The Kurds were determined to keep hold of their freedoms after Saddam was removed, while the Shia gravitated towards Iran, giving the Iranians a shot at taking control of Iraq.
Or ... following the end of the Iraq-Iran War, Saddam demanded that the Arab states give Iraq free loans and other support. Kuwait refused. This might have been legally permitted, but Iraq was far more powerful than Kuwait and the refusal was foolhardy. What guarantee did Kuwait have that would ensure the US would intervene? Indeed, if the Iraqis had mounted the invasion of Kuwait a year or two earlier, they would probably have gotten away with it.
There are other examples, of course. During the Cold War, geopolitical priorities demanded that the NATO countries hang together, despite disputes that could easily have turned into catfights without a common threat. Now, without the looming Russian Bear, America and Europe have much less binding them together. Can NATO be a significant power again?
***
The failure to consider geopolitics is perhaps the greatest weakness of the current crop of governments in the West. Their behaviour, in many ways, shows a complete lack of awareness of geopolitics. When it comes to intervening in the Middle East, playing games with Russia and adjusting positions in the Far East, Western governments frequently seem blind to the underlying costs and consequences of their actions.
There are no shortage of places in the world that could serve as a flashpoint for a general war, no matter how seemingly suicidal. Will Taiwan declare independence, with US backing, forcing China to either accept its permanent separation or start a war? Will Eastern Europe’s treatment of Russian minorities convince Russia to intervene with force? Will Indian involvement in Afghanistan trigger a war with Pakistan? Will Syria turn into a black hole sucking in forces from all over the world? Failing to think two or three steps ahead, as NATO did when it absorbed Eastern Europe, could be lethal.
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