by Larry Bond
“Chakra will sail at twenty-one hundred hours tonight. Be ready to bring the weapons aboard at eighteen hundred.”
“Understood. We will be ready.”
Energized, the two quickly turned toward the workbench, but Dhankhar called after them. “Kirichenko, Orlav. If this were a movie, I’d order Jain to shoot you both the moment the mission was accomplished. I’m an honorable man, and I intend to keep my part of the bargain, but if there is any trouble, remember that Jain always has that option.”
6 April 2017
0800 EST
White House Situation Room
Washington, D.C.
* * *
The situation room could hold twenty people comfortably. Patterson had seen thirty squeezed in, once, and nobody used their elbows or breathed deeply. It was just over half full now, with literally every person in the U.S. government who was aware of the Indian nuclear conspiracy.
The newest member of that elite group was preparing to brief the rest. Satisfied that his tablet and the screen were properly linked, he nodded nervously to Patterson and stepped behind the podium.
Patterson rose and the quiet conversation around the table stopped instantly. Her summons had been urgent. Nodding toward the briefer, she began, “Dr. Stan Tomasz is the senior economic analyst at the China desk in the State Department. In response to the president’s question about the threat to China the Indian plot represented, I asked Stan—Dr. Tomasz, to estimate the consequences if the Indian conspirators are successful.”
She started to sit down, but stopped, straightened, and added, “I should mention that Dr. Tomasz has been studying the Chinese economy since well before the Littoral Alliance war, and during the war gave me frequent updates on its health, or lack thereof. When he told me of his findings last night, I immediately informed the president, and he told me to organize this briefing.” She quickly sat down.
Dr. Tomasz was in his thirties, and fighting a losing battle with his hairline and midsection. Perhaps in compensation, he wore a neatly trimmed beard, which gave him a professorial appearance. He looked apprehensive, and tired.
He tapped a button on his tablet, and the flat-screen display behind him came to life. The title, “Chinese Economic Estimate,” was deliberately vague, but the security markings said much more: “This briefing contains sensitive information and is classified Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information.”
“Dr. Patterson asked me to estimate the effects of five 150-kiloton nuclear weapons being detonated in major Chinese port cities. She gave me a list of ten cities that were potential targets.”
He tapped his tablet and the screen changed to show a map of China, the coast dotted with small red disks. “These are the cities on the list she provided, and all are major ports with large civilian populations.”
He gestured with a laser pointer, pointing out cities one after the other. “Hong Kong is a major economic center with a population over seven million people and nine separate harbors. Shanghai’s population is over twenty-four million; it is also a major financial center, as well as the world’s number-one container port with two large terminal facilities. Even smaller ports, like Ningbo or Xiamen, house over three million souls and are important shipping centers.”
The image zoomed to show a close-up of Shanghai, sitting on the easternmost part of China’s coast. Taiwan lay to the south, Japan directly east, and Korea to the northeast. It was easy to see why it was the world’s busiest container port, the two large terminal facilities highlighted on the map. Tomasz shined his laser pointer on the seaward facility. Hangzhou Bay faced east, with the city on the northern side.
He waved the laser along a long structure that led to a pair of islands near the mouth of the bay. “Shanghai is a complex target set as the two facilities are far apart. The first, Yangshan Container Terminal, is built on two small islands and is connected to the mainland by the Donghai Bridge, which is just over twenty miles long. The Yangshan terminal moved just over twelve million twenty-foot equivalent units or TEUs last year.”
He turned away from the harbor map to face his audience. “I consulted with CIA’s subject matter experts about the effects of the weapons Dr. Patterson described. The most destructive way to use a torpedo with a 150-kiloton yield would be to set it shallow, so the detonation would be a surface burst.” He pressed the tablet, and circles appeared, centered on a point just off the terminal.
“Yangshan’s a deep-water port, so the torpedo could be sent well in, close to the islands the terminal was built on. This inner circle”—he pointed to a red circle that neatly surrounded the entire terminal—“is twelve kilometers in diameter, and represents the distance at which the blast would cause near-total destruction. This is only the initial effect. The damage from fires and secondary causes would likely finish off anything the blast left standing. Note the large petroleum refinery and storage facility to the east. This site was damaged during the Sino–Littoral Alliance War; a nuclear blast at the Yangshan terminal would level it.” He pointed to orange and yellow circles farther out. “These represent the radii for moderate and light damage.” While they extended much farther, neither reached the shoreline.
“The second port facility is the Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone on the south bank of the Yangtze River, and it is home to four container terminals. Unlike Yangshan, the Waigaoqiao facility is harder to reach, as it is twenty-four nautical miles upstream. However, based on the estimated weapon’s characteristics, a nuclear-armed torpedo could theoretically reach this facility. A blast here would be more damaging.”
Tomasz’s next slide showed a lot of Shanghai proper within the twelve-kilometer-diameter destruction circle. “Civilian casualties would be on the order of a quarter of a million dead, and infrastructure damage would reach six to seven kilometers inland. Please note the Jiangnan Shipyard on Changxing Island, across the Yangtze’s southern fork, is within this radius. The Jiangnan Shipyard is a major provider of modern warships to the PLAN as well as large civilian merchant ships.
“Between the Yangshan and Waigaoqiao port facilities, China moved about twenty million TEUs last year. Before the war, that number was just over thirty-four million. But considering the distances involved, the Indians would have to use two torpedoes to achieve the desired damage. Next, let’s look at Hong Kong.” Tomasz changed the screen and a new map appeared.
Victoria Harbor, the main port, lay between Kowloon to the north and Hong Kong Island to the south. He pressed his tablet and the same three circles reappeared. This time the red circle not only included the entire harbor, but extended well inland on both Kowloon and Hong Kong Island, including a large part of the downtown area.
“Everyone knows about how densely people are packed in over there. We estimate, with a fair degree of confidence, that about three hundred and fifty thousand people would be killed immediately, with almost another million injured.”
Tomasz returned to the podium and checked his notes. “We don’t know which ports are the actual targets. Assuming they’re moderately competent, they’ve studied every name on the list, and then chosen, based on whatever their criteria were, and in fact, the others remain alternates if a primary target cannot be attacked.” He looked over at Patterson, who was nodding. Geisler, the Secretary of Defense, also nodded approvingly.
“The two cities I showed you in detail are almost certainly on the target list, and we’ve run through different combinations of the others to create a range of results.” He brought up a slide titled “Possible Combinations,” but Patterson caught his eye.
“Just bring up the summary, please.”
Tomasz nodded and quickly tapped the screen several times. Maps and tables flashed on the screen until he reached the summary page. The figures were stark, and almost everyone reacted with shock or disbelief. Patterson explained, “These are actually the refined results, based on guidance that I gave Dr. Tomasz last night.”
“Anywhere between two and a quarter to four and a half milli
on souls killed, and three times that injured,” Tomasz remarked, reading the slide. “One bomb would be a catastrophe. Five would be apocalyptic. We did not calculate the effects of the fallout, tidal surges, or electromagnetic pulse both because of time constraints, and because, frankly, these initial effects are bad enough.”
The economist explained, “The human cost and physical destruction are first-order effects. I needed these before I could begin my analysis of the true impact to China.”
The next slide was titled “Economic Impact.” He spoke confidently, explaining the figures. “China’s gross domestic product was already suffering, down from seven point three trillion before the war to six point five last year. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but to an economist, that’s a strong recession and flirting with a depression. Foreign trade, exporting the manufactured goods the Chinese need to support their growing economy, was especially hard-hit. At a minimum, the destructive effects of the attack would knock at least a full trillion off of that, and probably closer to two trillion.
“That’s not just a depression. A trillion gets you a nice, solid depression, no question. But two trillion is real money. Not only would many, maybe most industries shut down, but the transportation and agricultural sectors, even basic government services, would be crippled as well. And that doesn’t include the extraordinary burden of emergency relief. A lot of people will need medical care, food, water, and shelter for a considerable period of time.”
He pressed a control and the screen shifted again, showing a map of the world with arrows linking China with the rest of the world. It was a simple enough diagram—the fatter the arrows, the more trade between the two nations.
“This graphic shows prewar trade levels.” The fattest arrows were between China and the U.S., and China and the European Union. He pressed the tablet and the graphic shifted. All the arrows shrank; the ones to Asian nations almost disappeared. “This is postwar. Some of this is political, for example Vietnam’s embargo, but most is due to China’s reduced consumption and its reduced ability to provide goods for sale.”
The screen changed again, with most arrows disappearing, and the remaining ones shrinking to mere threads. “And this is my estimate of the results of the Indian attack. China’s exports drop to about fifteen percent of last year, while her need for all kinds of imports would grow substantially. Unfortunately, she likely doesn’t have the cash reserves to pay for this increased need, let alone tackling the relief efforts.
“We’re almost certain that her reserves were virtually eliminated during the Littoral Alliance war. She’s got nothing to buy with.”
Since Patterson had seen this before, she watched the president and the others. Their horrified expressions told her they understood not only the staggering cost in human life, but the impact this would have on the world economy. The U.S. was already suffering a mild recession, partly from direct effects of their trade with China, but aggravated by the more severe economic problems Japan and the other Asian nations were suffering.
Tomasz let them absorb the data for a few moments before adding, “This slide makes several assumptions that are out of my jurisdiction. Most relate to economic behavior and would change the overall values by five or ten percent. But the biggest variable, and one I can’t predict, is the stability of the Chinese government and the maintenance of social order.”
“A revolution,” Secretary Lloyd remarked grimly.
“Anarchy,” Tomasz responded. “A weak, discredited central government without the ability to rule; in essence, a failed state. Assuming a near-complete breakdown of authority and essential services, which will limit the ability of the Chinese Army to maintain order, chaos and massive civil unrest would almost certainly occur.”
“You could have several revolutions,” Myles added. “Tibet. The Uyghurs.”
“And what happens when North Korea can’t get its food from China anymore?”
Tomasz shrugged. “It’s impossible to separate economics and politics, but I’ve learned the dangers of trying to predict events based on economic forecasts. I will say this: Based on this forecast, the Chinese would be lucky if they only suffered a severe depression, and the effects of that would be felt worldwide, including here. Just as the 1929 New York stock market crash triggered the Great Depression, China could drag the rest of the world down with it.”
“We’re too tightly connected, these days,” Myles agreed. “Knock China down and we’ll all fall over. What about India?”
“Economically, she’d be hurt as well. She doesn’t have much trade with China these days, but she does with other countries that will be affected. It’s a downward spiral for everyone.”
“India’s economic condition after the attack won’t matter,” Defense Secretary Geisler countered. “If China finds out who did this to them, they’ll retaliate with their own nuclear weapons, and India will in turn shoot back. If that submarine launches those torpedoes, we’ll have the first general nuclear exchange between the world’s two largest and oldest nations.”
“What’s worse than an apocalypse?” Myles asked to nobody in particular. He then continued, “Thank you, Dr. Tomasz and Dr. Patterson. I am declaring that stopping this attack is in the vital interests of the United States.” He took the time to look directly at Lloyd, Geisler, and Greg Alexander, Director of National Intelligence.
“Do we warn the Chinese?” Lloyd asked.
After a moment’s pause, Myles replied. “Not yet. I can imagine the Chinese reacting in many different ways, all of them bad, and any hope of working with the Indians would be gone forever. As long as that sub hasn’t sailed, it’s only a plot, and the Indians should be able to deal with it themselves. That would look better to China, when the word does get out. But SECDEF,” he turned to face Geisler, “start moving anything that would help toward the area, just in case.”
6 April 2017
1810 Local Time
INS Chakra
Naval Shipyard
Visakhapatnam, India
* * *
Jain wondered if this was some sort of test, intended to find out exactly how much stress he could take. He’d considered asking Mitra, but the captain either was a very good actor or, for reasons still unexplained, was serious about having Chakra leave tonight.
Everyone else in the shipyard took it seriously. Workers were feverishly preparing the submarine for departure. The reactor was critical and the last checks in the engine room were being completed, and Mitra had assured him that two tugs would be standing by at 2100 to get him under way. Trucks with stores and foodstuffs were stacked five deep on the pier, and working parties from all over the yard had been drafted into getting the provisions aboard. In fact, supplies were coming aboard so quickly that his crew did not have time to store them properly.
And now this. In the midst of that chaos, five more torpedoes had arrived to be loaded, accompanied by two Russian civilians bearing a letter from Admiral Dhankhar. Chakra’s torpedomen had been helping the rest of the crew, and he’d had to pull them off working parties to rig the loading tray.
While Lieutenant Commander Rakash, his first officer, supervised the loading, Jain read the admiral’s letter, then read it again. No information, just more confusion. “Treat your two visitors as VIPs, and come see me immediately.”
At least there was no problem finding berths for them. Two of his officers and eight of the crew were off the boat, scheduled to return in time for the boat’s originally planned sailing tomorrow.
But what were they going to do? “Weapons specialists” did not tell him anything useful, although it was obviously connected with Chakra’s sudden sailing.
Saluting the naval ensign at the fantail, Jain crossed the brow from the boat onto the pier. The warm evening was filled with the voices and the sounds of machinery, and Jain had to thread his way past sailors and yard workers and stacked boxes.
He saw his first officer near the bow. Rakash was acting as the safety observer as the torped
oes were winched over and lowered onto a horizontal tray that would guide them into the sub’s torpedo room.
Rakash turned and saluted as Jain approached. “Everything’s going smoothly here, sir. We should be done in about half an hour.”
Jain forced himself to smile casually and returned the salute. “That’s good to hear, Number One. If there’s any part of this bedlam that should not dissolve into madness, it’s loading those torpedoes.”
Jain gestured down the pier. “I’m off then to see the admiral. Hopefully I’ll find out what this is all about.”
Rakash said, “The latest rumor, thanks to the arrival of those two Russian riders, is that we’re bound for Russia to get a secret weapon to use against Pakistan.”
“Replacing the one about the Pakistani spy that supposedly sabotaged the dry dock?” Jain shook his head.
The first officer shrugged, then nodded sagely. “I personally prefer the one about the secret Pakistani naval base best.”
“I almost hoped that one was true,” Jain replied. Taking a deep breath, he ordered, “Whip her into shape, Number One, and I’ll be back, hopefully with our orders.”
Jain strode quickly off into the darkness.
13
SORTIE
6 April 2017
1840 Local Time
INS Circars, Eastern Naval Command Headquarters
Visakhapatnam, India
* * *
The outer office was empty, and the door to the inner sanctum was open, although the opening was dark. Just inside the door, Jain hesitated. Where was the admiral’s staff? It was late, but the admiral and his staff often worked late into the evening. The letter had said to come immediately. Jain assumed he was to report to Dhankhar’s office, but could he have been mistaken? He reopened the letter to see if he had missed something. No, nothing.