by Larry Bond
Thigpen was looking for the best place to position North Dakota and her reconnaissance UUVs, asking Samant questions about Chakra’s standard operating procedures. What speed and depth would she transit at, depending on the water conditions? Samant, at the direction of the Indian government, answered all the questions as best he could. The information would be used to a good end.
Afterward, of course, the American navy would collect whatever he told them and share it with the rest of their fleet. Chakra was Russian-built, and there were other Improved Akula I–class submarines in the Russian fleet. He didn’t feel any regrets about his information being used for that purpose. It was the price the Russians paid for hiding the bootleg warheads in the first place.
The hardest part of their job was to estimate the likely route that Chakra would take. If she hugged the Chinese coast as she moved north and east, she could hide in the noise generated by the hundreds of ships in the area, as well as the sounds made by the many life-forms that lived in coastal waters, and even the sound of waves on shore. But that made for a much longer trip and Chakra’s own sonar search capability would also be affected. Submariners didn’t like shallow water. It limited their options.
Besides, Chakra had that new towed sonar, and she couldn’t use it at all in shallow water. Samant tapped the chart near Hong Kong. It was not only the southernmost target on that list, but one of the biggest. Everyone had agreed with the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that it was likely Chakra’s first destination. “He will stay in deep water as long as possible, and approach directly. It’s ten hours at fifteen knots from the deep water here until the water starts to shoal badly near the Wanshan Archipelago.” Samant shifted his finger to the southwest and tapped the wide-open entrance to the Lema Channel; the water was just a little over thirty meters deep.
“Or less than eight hours if he pushes it to twenty knots,” suggested Thigpen. “That reduces his time in shallow water leading up to the channel.”
“If he doesn’t think anyone’s watching for him,” replied Samant. “But I don’t believe Jain would be so reckless. His predisposition is to follow established procedures whenever possible. That’s just the way he is, and I reinforced this tendency through rigorous training. Jain will be cautious in his approach.”
The American XO nodded agreement. “Well, it’s the same waypoint regardless of his speed, or which of the two channels he takes. It’s a place to start.”
Having a location that Chakra was likely to pass through, Thigpen made some adjustments to the computer simulation to figure out what was the best search speed so their sonar would be able to detect the other sub but still cover the largest possible area. The trick was to find Chakra before she got to “Point X-ray.”
Samant studied the two submarines at their respective locations, in deep water off the Chinese coast. “As an experiment,” he asked, “can you change Chakra to her original configuration, before her towed array was upgraded?”
“Sure, no problem,” Thigpen answered. He clicked on a side menu, lowered the array’s performance, reset the simulation, and then ran the encounter again. This time, North Dakota detected the Indian submarine a full ten minutes earlier, with an increase in detection range of nearly four nautical miles.
Samant slowly dropped back into his chair; he’d expected an improvement, but the magnitude of the shift left him shocked. No, horrified. He asked Thigpen, “Is … is this what you remember? Was this what it was like when our submarines met before?”
Thigpen nodded soberly, but remained silent.
“I understood that the Virginia class were technically superior to the Akula I subs, but that much! No wonder your captain was able to beat us. With that much of an advantage, a monkey could have won.”
The American XO was silent for a moment, but then spoke carefully. “Captain Mitchell is the smartest and most imaginative officer I’ve ever served under. You should be grateful that he never intended to sink your boat…”
“I quite agree,” Samant interrupted. “It would have been a trivial exercise with this kind of superiority.”
“You’re selling my captain a little short, aren’t you sir?” Thigpen said harshly.
“No, no,” soothed Samant. “He’s a good man, and I trust him, but with this starship”—he swept his arm, encompassing the control room—“against my old boat, he’d have been a fool to lose.”
Thigpen’s expression went through several changes, and Samant realized that North Dakota’s first officer was torn between defending his captain and disagreeing with a senior officer, even if he was from a different navy. Samant said, “Please, speak freely, Commander.”
Permission to speak his mind seemed to calm the American naval officer slightly. Samant could have just as easily left him frustrated and silent. “Thank, you, sir.” Thigpen drew a short breath, and explained, “Our orders were to interfere with your attacks, which was much more difficult than just firing a torpedo to sink you. Captain Mitchell’s motives were always to prevent loss of life, and he was innovative and resourceful. Who do you think devised the operation that ended the war?”
“The nuclear blue-out was his idea?” Samant was surprised, but then vaguely recalled that Petrov had said something similar. In an attempt to stop the fighting, the Americans had taken drastic action, detonating eight nuclear weapons underwater in a pattern that had flooded the South and East China Seas with noise. The phenomenon, called “blue-out,” had lasted for days. Ship and submarine sonars were blinded, and the combatants had retreated to port. Without causing any injuries, America had imposed a cease-fire.
Samant, commanding Chakra, had encountered North Dakota as the American sub was preparing to fire two of the nuclear-tipped torpedoes that were part of the plan. Without knowing the American’s mission, Samant had done his level best to first drive off the U.S. sub, then to actually sink it. Mitchell’s sub had not only avoided his weapons, but launched the torpedoes as planned and escaped. Samant had avoided damage from the blasts only by following the American sub’s lead.
Jerry Mitchell had maneuvered his sub in a close-quarters melee that had almost resulted in a collision. Especially with what he’d learned since coming aboard North Dakota, he’d had to acknowledge that Mitchell had “won” that encounter.
Finally, Samant nodded and replied, “Your point is well taken. I may have given the technology too much credit.” For Samant, it was an abject apology. He wasn’t used to giving one, but he couldn’t stand against Thigpen’s loyalty to his captain. He wondered if Jain would have done the same thing under similar circumstances, and as soon as he thought of the question, he knew the answer was that Jain would not.
He’d never demanded or expected loyalty from Jain or any of his men, just immediate obedience, to the best of their ability. Samant knew that being a captain could not be a popularity contest, and he had always lumped loyalty into the same category.
Girish Samant would never command Chakra again, and would probably not command another submarine, but the president and defense minister had promised him a place in India’s navy. He resolved to study Jerry Mitchell’s methods. There was always something new to learn.
* * *
Samant spotted him at the same time as Lieutenant Iverson, the OOD, coming into control from forward. Iverson called, “Captain is in Control,” but softly, per Jerry’s standing orders. Anyone working wasn’t supposed to come to attention, but Thigpen stood anyway, and reflexively Samant did as well. It was Jerry’s boat, after all.
Thigpen briefed Jerry on the results of their planning. “Jain has two options in approaching the Hong Kong area, the larger Lema Channel to the southwest, or the much smaller Taitami Channel between the Dangan and Jiapeng island chains. Both are really shallow, barely one hundred feet deep, and both are busy shipping lanes. Taitami is more like a freeway in terms of shipping density, but it is the shortest route in.”
Samant pointed to the narrow Taitami Channel on the chart. “The traf
fic separation scheme is very compressed here, the channel is only four nautical miles at its narrowest point. It would be a much more difficult path to navigate than the Lema Channel where Jain has adequate room to maneuver and there is a greater separation between the shipping lanes.”
“But he spends more time in the really shallow water taking that route,” Jerry protested.
“That’s true, Captain, but any route Jain takes will require him to spend a lot of time in dangerously shallow water. The main advantage here is that there is a lot less traffic. You see, he has to fire from the center of Lema Channel, this is the best place given the fifty-kilometer range of the torpedo and the channel structure in the Wanshan Archipelago. By entering via the Lema Channel, Jain has to parallel this shipping lane for five miles, and only has to cross the two busiest. With Taitami, he has to run with the dense traffic for over twenty miles,” argued Samant.
Jerry winced at the thought of having to play dodgeball with a bunch of very large merchant ships for twenty miles and then squeezing through a very narrow passage. “Okay, so the Lema Channel is our best bet. What’s your recommendation for a search plan?”
Thigpen nodded and moved his finger to a dot on the chart labeled “X-ray.” “Regardless of which channel Jain actually decides to use, Point X-ray is where he will likely begin his approach to Hong Kong. This is the closest point that deep water gets to the Chinese coast. If we park ourselves about ten miles out from this spot, we can look out into deeper water, while Jain has to look into shallower water. At twenty knots, we’re quieter than Chakra, but we recommend we slow to fifteen knots—our optimum search speed. That maximizes our detection range and coverage.”
Thigpen gestured to the south through southeast, showing the different routes they’d marked as possible routes for Chakra. “The greatest unknown is of course her current position. Captain Samant and I think these are the most likely avenues of approach, based on her standard transit rates, but which route she’s using, and her progress, are just guesses. That’s a lot to bet the farm on.”
Samant watched Jerry listen to the briefing, then consider for a moment before asking, “What’s the earliest time she could be at Point X-ray?”
The XO sighed. “If she takes the shortest route, and runs at the highest possible speed, which by the way makes her towed array useless, we still beat her to Point X-ray by almost a full day. Neither Captain Samant nor I think that’s likely, because it makes them too detectable, and gives up their most valuable sensor. On the other hand, if she takes her time and tries to stay really covert, we get there about a week before Chakra does. Squadron Fifteen is going with a middle-of-the-road approach, but even so, she doesn’t reach Hong Kong until fourteen or fifteen April.”
“Why would Jain worry about being too detectable?” Jerry asked. “As far as he knows, this is a surprise attack. He’s not expecting someone to be looking for him.”
“We can’t assume that, Captain,” countered Samant. “Dhankhar was warned we were on to him before Chakra set sail, it’s likely he gave Jain instructions to be careful without telling him explicitly what was going on. Besides, Jain would inherently become more cautious the closer he got to China.”
“True, but if Jain thinks there’s a chance he could be pursued, he could push at a higher speed to try and get to the targets as quickly as possible.” Jerry straightened and turned to Samant. “Captain, how mission-oriented is Jain—compared to your average mission-oriented submariner, that is.”
Samant answered, “That may be the wrong question, Jerry. I believe Jain will do everything in his power to accomplish his mission, but only if he believes it is a legal order. Jain is extremely respectful of authority. I’m afraid he may be too willing to obey orders, without examining them critically,” the Indian admitted.
He continued, “If Jain were to hear a recall order, I believe—I want to believe—that he would obey it and return to Vizag. That’s a happy ending for all of us. I also believe Dhankhar anticipated a recall. That’s why he left our VLF station down for repairs. He’s also probably told Jain to maintain radio silence, even turn his radio receivers off, until after he’s accomplished his mission. So it’s quite probable that he doesn’t know he’s been discovered, and will proceed at a higher transit speed. But I’m also convinced he’ll slow as he approaches Hong Kong. He can’t assume the Chinese will just sit in port.”
Jerry frowned but nodded. “Thanks, Captain. That increases the chance he could get past us, which is not good.” He paused, and his expression told Samant he was making a hard decision. He’d felt the same way himself.
“We’re going to conduct our search closer to the Chinese coast,” Jerry announced. “If we put ourselves right off the entrance to the Lema Channel, we cut our search area by more than half. We know where he’s going, so let’s take advantage of it. This also allows us to keep an eye on Taitami Channel, just in case our assumption is wrong.”
“What?” Samant was incredulous. The shallower water and close proximity to numerous civilian merchant ships would negatively affect their detection range. Giving up the deeper water meant abandoning their greatest advantage over Chakra. Truth be told, he knew his old boat was tougher than North Dakota. Russian boats were designed to take a torpedo and survive. There was no question that one hit on the American submarine would be the end of them all. “You can’t afford a close-quarters engagement,” he protested.
“Bernie, what’s the first thing you’d do before you went into really shallow water?” Jerry asked.
“Slow down, and reel in the towed array,” the XO answered.
“And that’s what we need, badly,” Jerry explained. “If Jain slows down, that gives us more time to hear him as he gets closer. Yes, he’ll be quieter, and the environment isn’t as benign, but we still have an advantage, and this becomes even greater once he stows his towed array.”
Thigpen started running the numbers. “With us sitting on the fifty-meter curve, against a slow Akula, we’d have an estimated detection range of ten, maybe twelve thousand yards depending on the local shipping noise.”
“What about Napoleon and Bismarck?” asked Jerry.
“Hmph, I doubted they’d be even half that good. Give me a minute to check, sir,” Thigpen grunted.
“Napoleon? Bismarck?” echoed Samant in confusion.
“Our UUVs. We named them after cities in the state of North Dakota,” Jerry replied without taking his eyes off the display.
“You name them like pets?” demanded the Indian. These Americans are a weird lot, he thought.
“Sure, why not?” rebutted Thigpen. “We’re actually quite attached to them. By the way, Captain, there are still some members of the crew that haven’t forgiven you for running Minot over.”
“I destroyed a city in North Dakota? Fortunes of war, Commander,” Samant responded firmly, now convinced that the Americans were indeed crazy.
“Ah, here you go, Skipper,” announced the XO. “Ooh, the UUVs’ detection range is even shorter than I thought, about three thousand yards.”
“Okay, Bernie, put the boat on a racetrack pattern roughly parallel to the Jiapeng Islands and the entrance to Lema Channel, speed fifteen knots. Then put Napoleon and Bismarck to the west and southwest, eight miles away from own ship. Use just barely overlapping five-mile racetracks for both, speed five knots. How does that look?”
“Wait one, Skipper,” Thigpen mumbled as his fingers rapped on the keyboard. It took a couple of minutes before he was ready to run the simulation. The results surprised him.
“Well, I’ll be dipped in goo,” he remarked. “The overall probability of detection actually is better, noticeably better. Nice call, Skipper.”
“Thanks, XO. And I’m sure you and Captain Samant can refine the basic search pattern and eke out another percentage point or two.” Jerry saw Samant lean forward, studying the simulation display. His head nodding slightly, a smile crept onto his face.
Although it went against his in
stincts, Samant was now convinced. He didn’t know if he would make the same decision in Jerry’s place, even if he’d thought of it. Mitchell was right, though. The approach Samant and Thigpen had originally planned had a lower calculated chance of finding Chakra.
Before departing, Jerry turned toward Samant and said, “Oh, Captain, I’ve got something else for you to do as well, if you’re willing.”
“Whatever I can do to help, of course.”
“I’d like you to prerecord a message that we can play over the underwater telephone, just in case we can get close enough, without being shot at, of course. Even if they have shut down their communications, they can’t ignore the sonar. If Jain and his crew hear the recall order from you, there’s a chance they’ll stop, and nobody has to die.”
Samant felt a flash of hope, and he felt grateful to Jerry. The American was still doing his best to think of ways to end this peacefully. The underwater telephone had a range of only a few kilometers, and the chance of his crew actually recognizing his warbled voice was low, but he could certainly record a short message that would sound like it was coming from their old captain, and tell them to turn around.
They had to play every angle, and just hope for the best.
18
PURSUIT
14 April 2017
1100 EST
White House Situation Room
Washington, D.C.
* * *
It had taken more time than she could afford to just get the videoconference organized. Although in theory, Submarine Squadron Fifteen was coordinating the military forces involved in the hunt for Chakra, the reality was far more complex.
China was insisting that any aircraft or ship employed in the operation be under their “positive control.” They refused to say what that meant. They also refused to say what ships and aircraft from their own forces would take part in the search, or what their capabilities were. After three days of Chinese turndowns, delays, and evasions, Commodore Simonis had finally brought Joanna Patterson into the loop. She’d agreed that the issue was something that needed to be addressed at a higher level.