BDM Study of France 1940, 141–147
Proud Prophet 83, 163–166
Kaufmann, William, 33, 62, 64, 82, 85, 88
Kennan, George, 17, 154, 256
Kennedy, John, 52, 53–54, 76
Kissinger, Henry, 70, 71, 80, 85–86, 92–93, 94, 109, 117–118, 124–125, 132, 150, 154, 175, 226, 250
Bringing Marshall to the NSC, 76–78, 81
National Net Assessments, 86–88, 94, 95–96
Cold War Pessimism, 96–99
Special Defense Panel, 82–84, 92, 176
Strategic Superiority, 125
Klein, Burton, 59–60
Klein, Lawrence, 12, 181, 189
Knight, Frank, 10, 11
Kramish, Arnold, 20, 28–29, 34, 35–36
Krepinevich, Andrew, 88, 188–189, 196–197, 199–203, 205, 207, 211, 216–218, 219, 224, 240
Streetfighter State, 209–210
See also Military Technical Revolution
Kullback, Solomon, 24–25
Laird, Melvin, 84, 86–87, 89, 92
See also Net Assessment Group
Lanchester, Frederick William, 187
Leites, Nathan, 49, 114
Loftus, Joseph, 39, 40, 42–46, 56, 59, 66, 70, 81, 136, 253, 254, 257
See also SOVOY
Long Range Aviation (LRA), 43–45, 48, 73
Long Term Competition Framework, 22, 69–71, 124, 130, 154–155, 166, 190, 225–226, 229, 238, 251, 256, 257–258
Core Competences, 233–234
LeMay, Curtis, 19–20, 24, 52–53
Libby, I. Lewis “Scooter,” 236–237
Limited Nuclear Options, 50, 135, 139–140, 164
See also James Schlesinger
Lord, General Lance, 150, 171, 248
Lorenz, Konrad, 61
Lovett, Robert, 52–54
Manthorpe, William, 150, 171
March, James, 46, 58–59, 67–68, 88, 196
Marshall, Andrew, 27, 28–29, 31–34, 41–42, 43–46, 47–48, 49–50, 57, 58–59, 64–66, 77, 81, 93–94, 95, 99, 105–106, 109–110, 118, 119, 121, 126–127, 129, 133–134, 154, 157–158, 165, 169, 174, 177, 190, 247–248, 260–261
China, 193–194, 207–209, 236–244
Command, Control, and Communications (C3) Balance, 148–149
Conception of Net Assessment, 89–92, 95–96, 101–104, 107–110, 130, 250–252, 264
Director of Strategic Studies (at RAND), 69–71
Early Life, 1–6, 7–10
Émigré Project, 174–175
European Military Balance, 141–147, 177, 179–189
First Net Assessment, 82–84, 176
Innovation, 178, 194–195, 201, 204–206, 211, 212–214, 217–220, 221–222, 223, 251
Intelligence Study for Kissinger, 78–81
Long Term Competition Framework (1970), 22, 69–71, 124, 130, 154–155, 166, 190, 225–226, 229, 238, 251, 256, 257–258
Military Technical Revolution (MTR), 194–195, 196, 198–204, 205–208, 209–214
Organizational Behavior, 51, 57–58, 61, 64, 66–67, 68, 69–71, 220
Principal Cold War Balances, 105–106, 148, 229
Sayings, 1, 13, 15, 51, 73, 94, 95, 118, 121, 128, 147–148, 153, 193, 220, 227, 235, 247
Soviet Military Burden, 83–84, 106–107, 149–151, 154–155, 170–174, 190, 253, 261–262
Strategic Nuclear Balance, 28, 126–128, 131, 158–164, 176
Strategic Objectives Committee, 34–36, 38–40
Study of Foreign Intelligence for Kissinger, 78–81, 85–86
University of Chicago, 10–14
See also Trends, Uncertainty in Analysis
Marshall, Donald, 87
Marshall, General George, 54
Marshall, Mary (Speer), p. 33–34, 60–62, 77, 93, 94, 227
Massive Retaliation, 50, 237
May, Andrew, 196, 232, 234
May, Ernest, 62
May Group, 62, 166
McKitrick, Jeffrey, 197, 232
McNamara, Robert, 52–56, 59–60, 74, 94
Mearsheimer, John, 180, 182, 184, 185, 186–187, 189
Mettler, Rubin, 85
Meyer, Herbert, 174
Military Technical Revolution (MTR), 194–195, 196, 198–204, 205–208, 210–214, 222–226
Pentagon Reactions, 215–221
Streetfighter State, 209–210
Murdock, Clark, 216–217, 218
Murray, Williamson, 195, 221
National Security Council 20/4 (NSC 20/4), 17
National Security Council 68 (NSC 68), 17, 47, 237
See also Containment Policy
National Security Decision Directive 32 (NSDD 32), 155
National Security Decision Directive 75 (NSDD 75), 155
National Security Decision Memorandum 239 (NSDM 239), 95
National Security Decision Memorandum 242 (NSDM 242), 50
National Security Study Memorandum 186 (NSSM 186), 93, 95, 96, 99–100, 111
NSSM 186 Phase I, 100–102, 105
NSSM 186 Phase II, 110–111
“Nature and Scope of Net Assessment” (1972), 89–92, 110, 248–249
Net Assessment, 69, 70, 73, 84, 86–87, 92–93, 94, 95, 108–109, 119, 121–122, 130, 133, 147–148, 156–159, 161–163, 177, 179, 197, 245–246, 248, 257
After the Cold War, 228–231
First Net Assessment, 82–84, 176
Marshall’s Conception of Net Assessment, 74, 89–92, 101, 102–105, 108–111, 114, 161, 181–182, 184, 189, 225–226, 227, 247, 248–249, 250–252, 254–255, 258–259
See also Asymmetries, Competitive Advantage, Competitive Strategies, Diagnosis versus Prescription, Principal Cold War Balances, Scenarios, Soviet Assessment, Trends, and Uncertainty in Analysis
Net Assessment Group (NAG), 84–89, 93
Net Evaluation Subcommittee (NESC)/Special Evaluation Subcommittee (SESC), 73–74
Nitze, Paul, 17, 47, 67, 137
Nixon, Richard, 50, 70, 76–77, 80, 92–93, 96, 132, 264
Reorganization of Foreign Intelligence (1971), 85–87
Watergate Scandal, 97–98
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 16, 31, 35, 39, 59–60, 69–70, 100–102, 105, 110, 112–113, 115, 116, 137, 141–143, 149, 161–162, 164–165, 180–186, 188, 196, 202–203, 219
Odom, William, 133–134, 135
Office of Net Assessment, 85–87, 95, 102, 104, 107–109, 118, 119, 130, 177, 193, 225, 247, 248
Office of Systems Analysis (OSA), 55–56, 58, 61
See also Program Analysis and Evaluation (PA&E)
Operation Barbarossa (1941), 130–131
Operation Desert Storm (1991), 167, 178, 197–199
Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003), 235
Operations Research, 54–55
See also Systems Analysis
Organizational Behavior, 45–46, 51, 57–58, 61, 64, 66–67, 68, 69–71, 220
Owens, Admiral William, 201, 202, 212, 223
Dominant Battlespace Awareness (DBA), 209–210, 222, 224
Parker, Pat, 88, 99
Paxson, Edwin, 38
Perry, William, 218–219, 221, 223, 225
Pickett, George “Chip,” 88, 199, 201, 234
Pillsbury, Michael, 239–242, 263
Pipes, Richard, 125, 155
Pirie, Robin, 88, 111, 224
Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System (PPBS), 55
Plesset, Ernst, 28, 29, 30, 31
Posen, Barry, 180–181, 183, 184–185, 186, 187, 189
Presidential Decision/NSC-59, 135–136
Presidential Review Memorandum/NSC-10 (PRM/NSC-10), 133–136
Principal Cold War Balances, 105–106, 148, 229
“Problems of Estimating Military Power” (1966), 64–66
Program Analysis and Evaluation (PA&E), 99, 102, 109, 122–123
See also Systems Analysis
Project 186 (P-186), 111–113, 117, 202
Project Eager, 114–117<
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Proud Prophet 83, 164–165
Psychosis and Civilization (1949), 23
RAND (Research ANd Development), 14, 18–22, 24, 28, 30, 32, 43–46, 51, 57, 59–60, 64, 69, 80, 81, 103–104, 252
Selection and Use of Strategic Airbases (1954), 35–38
“The Next Ten Years” (1954), 34, 36, 38–40, 249
RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS), 139–141
Rational-Actor Model, 32, 43–46, 81, 189
Reagan, Ronald, 153–157, 163, 175, 190
See also Competitive Strategies, SDI
Reconnaissance Strike Complex, 167, 198–199, 201–203, 205, 207, 209–210, 219, 244, 262
Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), 222–226
See also Military Technical Revolution
Reis, Vic, 200–201, 211–212
Roche, James, 129, 133–134, 137, 181–182, 187–189, 195, 201, 205, 232, 248
“Thinking about the Navy” (1976), 123–124
Rosen, Stephen, 177–178, 201, 248, 249
Innovation, 201. 204–205
Rowen, Henry, 36, 62, 69, 137, 173, 175
RAND President, 68, 159
SecDef/DCI Strategic Assessment, 159–160, 163
Ruiz-Palmer, Diego, 113
Rumelt, Richard, 91, 129
Rumsfeld, Donald, 104, 117, 119, 121–124, 126–128, 136, 163, 231–233, 261–263
Scenarios, 69–70, 100, 114, 138, 160, 163–164, 182–183, 202–203, 250, 259
Schlesinger, James, 50, 57–59, 61, 68–69, 82, 84, 92–93, 95–96, 98–99, 111–112, 117–119, 121, 124, 135, 149–150, 166, 170, 205, 257–258
Bringing Marshall to the Pentagon, 93–94
Establishing OSD’s Net Assessment Program, 104–105, 108–109
Intelligence Study for Nixon, 85–86
NSSM 186 Phase I, 101–102
Soviet Military Burden, 106–107, 170, 261
See also Limited Nuclear Options, Principal Cold War Balances
Selection and Use of Strategic Airbases (1954), 35–38
Selin, Ivan, 66–67, 68, 87–88
See also Organizational Behavior
Simon, Herbert, 46, 59
See also Bounded Rationality
Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP), 50, 135
Six Day Arab-Israeli War (1967), 76
Smith, Ann, 227–228
Smith, K. Wayne, 58, 82, 86
Sokolovskiy, Marshal V. D., 194
Soviet Assessment, 113–117, 130–131, 136–137, 148, 190, 198, 239
Soviet Military Burden, 83–84, 106–107, 149–151, 154–155, 170–174, 190, 253, 261–262
SOVOY, 45–46, 56, 67
St. Andrew’s Prep, 177, 178, 181, 187, 189, 195–196, 201, 204, 205, 242
Strategic Air Command (SAC), 36–37, 38, 44, 49
Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 168–170, 260
Strategic Nuclear Balance, 28, 126–128, 131, 137–139, 148, 158–164, 176
Secretary of Defense/Director Central Intelligence (SecDef/DCI) Strategic Nuclear Balance, 158–163
Strategy Review for Rumsfeld (2001), 231–235
“Strategy for Competing with the Soviets in the Military Sector of the Continuing Political-Military Competition” (1976), 129
Stikker, Dirk, 59
Systems Analysis, 38, 51–52, 55–58, 61, 68, 90–91, 94, 109, 254–255, 257–258
See also Analytic Measures
TASCFORM (TASC Force Modernization), 143–144, 147–148
Team B Exercise (1976), 125
Territorial Air Defenses (Soviet and US), 130–132
“The Next Ten Years” (1954), 34, 36, 38–40, 249
Thornton, Charles “Tex,” 52–53
Tiger, Lionel, 258
Trends, 36, 58, 82, 89–90, 112, 124, 126, 128, 131, 133, 141, 142, 144, 148, 175, 197, 244–245, 259, 261
Truman, Harry, 16–18, 47, 73–74, 237, 245, 246
Uncertainty in Analysis, 32, 42, 44, 58, 96, 225, 258–259
Uncertainty in War, 64, 169
US Strategic Bombing Survey, 60
van Tol, Jan, 223–234
Vessey, General John, 164–165, 175
Vickers, Michael, 224, 248
Vietnam War, 51, 74–76, 89, 96, 97, 98, 118, 125, 154, 159, 201
Realistic Combat Training, 175, 199, 231
von Neumann, John, 30, 31
Wack, Pierre, 259
See also Scenarios
Wallis, W. Allen, 10, 13–14, 33
War-Gaming, 105, 138–140, 142, 259–260
Kriegspiel, 24, 80
ONA’s SDI Gaming, 168–170, 260
RMA Gaming, 202–203, 223–224
Strategy and Force Evaluation (SAFE), 138, 260
See also Proud Prophet 83, RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
Warning and Bombing (WARBO) Study, 30
Watts, Barry, 178, 181, 187–189, 195, 199, 205, 221–222, 232, 235, 248–249
Weighted Effectiveness Indices/Weighted Unit Values (WEI/WUV), 142–148
Weinberger, Caspar, 130, 155–158, 159, 161, 162–168, 176–177, 190, 196–197
Competitive Strategies, 196, 238, 255, 257, 262
Whiz Kids, 53, 56, 94
Williams, John, 24, 34, 35, 40, 249–250
Preventive War, 30
Wimbush, Enders, 174–175, 255
Wohlstetter, Albert, 3, 36, 37, 40, 41, 175
Great Invention, 238
Discriminate Deterrence (1988), 175–176
Selection and Use of Strategic Airbases (1954), 35–38
Wohlstetter, Roberta, 41–42, 63–64, 164, 177, 183
Wolf, Charles, 173, 176, 193, 194–195
Wolfowitz, Paul, 137, 210, 212, 232, 236
Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War (1973), 98, 101, 183
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