Between Lord Robert and Prince Henry sat John, seated in a position far too elevated in importance for Crystal's liking. He was clearly a late replacement for a more distinguished guest, or they wouldn't have placed him such a favourable position. He sat silently, his face unreadable, as ever. He tried to make eye contact with Crystal, but she deliberately ignored his unsmiling, serious face.
To the prince's left, and between him and Lord Jeremy, sat the Keeper of Records, John's guardian and master. He looked out of place among the commanders in his faded civilian clothes and with his unkempt grey hair and untidy beard. He was talking to Lord Jeremy, oblivious to the fact Lord Jeremy looked thoroughly bored with the conversation. Crystal had met him quite a few times and could understand why Lord Jeremy would be bored. The Keeper was harmless and a pleasant enough man, but rather too fond of droning on about the dullest of topics. She could see how he might take to John; the two of them were as bad as each other. She tried to recall his actual name, and found she couldn't. Hopefully someone would call him by his name rather than his title during the meal and remind her.
Lord Daniel's pretty young wife, Lady Sapphire, sat next to Lord Jeremy, to his left. She was dressed demurely, but that didn't dissuade Lord Jeremy from flirting with her, when he could break away from his conversation with the Keeper, much to Lord Daniel's obvious irritation. She didn't look much older than Crystal.
To Lady Sapphire's left sat Lord Rupert, chief military advisor to the King, and by extension, to Prince Henry. His wife sat almost opposite him, next to Lord Daniel. These two were unfamiliar to Crystal, and knowing how frequently this role changed, she had little interest in them. He was probably a relative of the King.
Next to Lord Rupert's wife sat Lord Karl, the head of army intelligence. He was a severe-looking man, with dark red hair and an even darker red beard. Crystal hadn't met a more serious person in her life with his permanent frown and penetrating stares. Crystal always felt as if he was giving her disapproving looks whenever they met. If she could avoid speaking to him that wouldn't be a bad thing.
Between Lord Karl and Lord Rupert and at the opposite end of the table to her husband sat Crystal's mother, looking very elegant, all dressed up for the occasion. Crystal suspected that her mother's angry glare was probably also due to the lack of effort that she had made with her own appearance, something she now regretted.
"So, are you related to Crystal?" Prince Henry asked John. Crystal coloured immediately, the prince both unintentionally alluring to her non-biological relationship with her parents and drawing attention to the similarity of their hair. It was something inevitable over the course of the evening, but the fact that it was the heir to the throne who did so just made it even worse.
Lord Robert noticed her obvious irritation and answered quickly for John. "No relation, your majesty; John is here on a scholarship working in the library as an assistant to the Keeper of Records."
"Oh, I see, is he working you hard, boy?"
Crystal smiled at the boy comment, but John seemed not to notice.
"I don't have to with this one, Prince Henry," the Keeper replied cheerfully. "His work ethic is unbelievable. He does everything I ask and still manages to conduct his own research. I expect that half of my reports this year will be initiated by his work, if not written by his own hand."
"Be careful, you might talk yourself out of your job. So boy, what research have you worked on so far? Do you have a tongue or not?"
Crystal was amazed and disappointed to see that John remained composed and was not even slightly intimidated by the prince.
"I've worked on a few things, your majesty. There's one piece of research I haven't yet shared with the Keeper of Records yet, but I think would be of particular interest to you and the Lord Commanders."
"Well don't stand on ceremony, boy, spit it out. What have you found?"
John nodded, pausing carefully before beginning. "I conducted an in depth assessment of all of the encounters with our neighbours over the last fifty years, and noticed a number of patterns, one of which was particularly interesting."
"Us, constantly taking out more of them than they get of ours, eh, boy?" The prince laughed at his comment, but no one else did.
"If the reported kills are to be believed, that is the most obvious insight of course, your Majesty. But no, that wasn't what I found interesting."
Crystal could hardly believe what she had just heard. Had John intentionally patronised the prince?
"What I noticed, your majesty, was that all encounters with Green Dragons stopped over twenty years ago. This was a complete stop, not just a lull in the sightings. Encounters with Blue Dragons dropped a lot around that time as well, and increased only slowly afterwards. Again, this is common knowledge and the recorded theory is that the Blues and Greens fought a highly damaging war, and both were more concerned with fighting each other instead of us. However, that doesn't really explain why we haven't seen a single Green Dragon since though, since they should have recovered by now.
What I also noticed is that the Blues shifted their attacks northward. The southern principality has suffered very few attacks from the Blue Dragons since, and none from Green Dragons. Any attacks on the south came from further north than any previous attacks. The whole of the south has become unusually peaceful."
"The Blues must have been weakened in the south by the greens. Only explanation for it. Or lost territory to them," Prince Henry pointed out.
"That's unlikely. If they had lost territory to the Greens that would suggest that the Greens came out of that war better off than the Blues. Yet there hasn't been a single attack from the Greens since, and attacks from the Blues have reached a record high, suggesting the opposite. None of the attacks are ever very large, but they are more frequent than ever."
"And answered in kind," Lord Lance bellowed. "They've lost more than we have."
"That's the way to teach them," Lord Rupert agreed. "They'll soon learn the price of attacking us." There were murmurs of agreement around the table.
"Perhaps they already have, sir," John replied.
"How do you mean, boy?" Prince Henry asked.
Crystal smiled. It was obvious that John wasn't impressing them.
"The fact that they are losing more than us is very clear. For every four they kill, we kill five, and this ratio is one that has remained constant for a long time. It would be as obvious to them as it is to us, yet they maintain the same tactics. Thinking that we're doing better than they are is reassuring but this thinking has two major flaws."
"What flaws, John?" Lord Robert asked politely. "How could it be anything but a good thing?"
"Firstly, it only looks at military losses. Any adult is counted as a reserve, so their deaths are counted, but children are not."
"Of course not," Lord Karl replied. "It would skew the figures. We have no idea of how many children we kill when we counter attack and raze their villages, just the ones we kill in the air. Ignoring children allows for a like for like comparison."
"A valid argument," John agreed, "when all children killed were incidental, as it would balance out for both sides. But for a few years, children were targeted and a large number of girls were kidnapped and boys were slaughtered."
"That was a long time ago," Prince Henry countered. "It stopped about fifteen years ago."
"Sixteen, your majesty, to be precise. But I believe it restarted on a small scale just over a year ago. Attacks had been increasing for the previous couple of years, so it went unnoticed, but the reported deaths include a large proportion of young boys, but no young girls. Girls are almost certainly being kidnapped again."
There was a short pause. All were aware that there were a few attacks where this was possibly true, including a recent one where a small village had been completely wiped out.
"It's still the minority of attacks though," Lord Lance commented. "I still don't see where you are taking us."
"And what about the second flaw?" Lord Da
niel asked, speaking for the first time.
"Eh, what are you talking about?" Lord Lance asked.
"He said that there were two flaws to the argument, the first one was about the children. What's the second one?"
John nodded. "So to summarise the first one, it's that our losses are probably understated. The second is more scary, for want of a better word."
"Well, don't keep us waiting, boy. What is it?" Prince Henry sounded impatient, but was clearly interested.
"The second flaw is based on the assumption that our numbers are comparable to theirs. If they have the same size population as us, and lose more in battle than we do, we grow stronger than they do. If their numbers are higher, then they may actually get stronger than we do."
"Eh, that doesn't make sense," Lord Lance replied, shaking his head.
"I'm not following either," Lord Daniel agreed. "Please, could you explain what you mean, John?"
"Perhaps I could illustrate better with an example. Let's say both sides have equal numbers, we will say a thousand each."
"A bit off in your census there, boy," the prince said with a laugh. "Some zeroes missing for a start!"
"Yes, your majesty, but the maths is easier to explain this way. May I continue?"
"Be my guest," the prince replied insincerely.
"So, with a thousand each, let's say that each year they gain fifty through reproduction, and one side loses forty, the reds, and the other side fifty, the blues."
"Through reproduction!" Lord Jeremy laughed. "He must be a hit with the girls in your class, eh Crystal? Such a way with words!"
"Go on, John," Lord Lance said, irritated by the interruption.
"In that scenario, and is the assumption that has always been made, our population would remain stable, and their population would drop one percent each year."
"Agreed," Lord Daniel said. "Go on, although I'm starting to see where you're going but I think you've made an incorrect assumption as well."
"Let's change the numbers. Let's double the size of the blues. That would also double their population growth. So each year they gain a hundred, and lose sixty, with a net gain of forty or four percent growth, while the red population remains stable."
"Come on, boy!" the prince shouted. "Do you expect us to believe that the blue population is double ours?"
"It doesn't need to be for the argument to work. Just more than twenty percent bigger."
"Yes, but the other numbers are off as well, John," Lord Daniel pointed out. "We don't lose five percent of our population a year in attacks; it's nowhere near that number. And our population must grow more than that in a year."
"No, I'm not so sure about that. I think our population has been pretty stable for a while now," Lord Robert commented. "I expect our Keeper of Records would be able to tell us."
"I'm afraid Lord Robert is quite right. It's hard to tell without examining several sets of information, as the censuses are only carried out nationwide each time we have a new king, but John recently did a thorough study for me and if anything, we've had a slight decrease in population over the last twenty years."
"Impossible!" Lord Jeremy exclaimed in disbelief. "There have been huge increases in the number of people living in not just the Fire City but in all the towns in the West."
"Yes, you may not have realised this, but your principality doesn't border any of our neighbours," Lord Lance pointed out coolly. "We bear the brunt of the attacks and clearly our losses outstrip your gains. You enjoy the benefit of our protection, without returning much in the way of troops. And that's not without even considering internal migration to the west."
"Oh, this old argument again. We provide plenty to you in resources. We pay our way," Lord Jeremy argued, clearly riled by Lord Lance.
"Yes, you do provide resources. If only we could buy our way out of our duty."
Lord Jeremy began to respond angrily but was interrupted by Prince Henry.
"My Lords, my Lords, let us not have this discussion in front of the ladies and the children. The boy has made some interesting arguments but I don't think…"
"What mistake do you think he made?" Lord Robert asked Lord Daniel, cutting the prince off. Crystal was surprised at her father. Surely that wasn't wise.
"Just about their numbers," Lord Daniel replied. "I can't see how he thinks they've grown so much more than ours. They've been taking even more losses than us, and fought a big war with the Greens just twenty years ago. If anything, we should outnumber them, as we've always had comparable numbers."
"Fair point, John. Had you considered that?" Lord Robert asked.
John nodded. "I have, and there a couple of things that make me think they've grown more than us, and these are both quite worrying observations. Firstly, there were a couple of very old reports from scouts sent deep into Blue territory. These scouts observed Blue Dragons training for combat, and noticed something unusual. None of the troops were female." John paused to let that information soak in.
"Yes, I did remember hearing about that," Lord Lance commented. "I was personally leading counter attacks at the time. How is that significant?"
"Well, this report coincided with the time when they we're kidnapping our girls. I think they were adopting a long term strategy, saving their women from combat so they could concentrate on having children. It seems quite likely that the war with the Greens was fought without using any of their women, so hardly any would have been lost. I also think they were kidnapping our girls to boost their numbers. Every child produced by a blue father will be a Blue Dragon as well."
"Yes, but their husbands are still dying in battle," Lord Jeremy pointed out. "It takes two to reproduce, as you like to put it, don't you know?"
"You're assuming they follow the same society rules as we do," John retorted. "There is nothing to stop them taking two or more wives."
"I expect you know something about that in the West," Lord Daniel muttered. Lord Jeremy gave him a cool smile but didn't reply.
"Putting all these facts together, I've come to a conclusion which is very worrying, and fits with what we observe," John continued. "We've always assumed that not much changed after the war between the Blues and Greens, maybe just a small territory gain by the Greens. What if that was completely wrong? No one has seen a Green Dragon since that war. What if they were completely annihilated and the Blues now have all of their territory?"
"Come on, John. That's a bit far-fetched isn't it?" Lord Karl said, clearly unimpressed.
"I think you've let your imagination run away with you," the prince told him, chuckling to the others.
John shook his head. "The more you look at it, the likelier it appears. Examine the facts. The Greens have never been seen since. The Blues have shifted their attacks northward, drawing our attention away from the south, where they would have been rebuilding. They appear to have been concentrating on population growth shortly after the war, and if anything, that was planned before the war. How would they feed these new mouths? Easy if they have all that fertile ground the Greens used to hold, and I'm not sure if you are aware, but the land the Greens used to control is very fertile, just like the neighbouring land in our southern principality. That's how the Greens were able to sustain such a large population despite holding a much smaller territory than us or the Blues. The Blues planned both the war and what to do next, building up the population to expand into their newly captured territory and to prepare for their next conquest, wiping us out. It's just a matter of time before they attack."
There was a long pause after he finished speaking, finally interrupted by John's guardian.
"Well, there's an easy way to determine whether John is right or not," he pointed out.
"What's that?" Crystal asked, speaking for the first time. She saw her mother frown at her.
"Send scouts into Green Dragon territory," Lord Rupert replied, seeing where the Keeper was going. "Something we haven't done for a long time, but that in itself is no reason not to do it."
> "Couldn't that be seen as an act of aggression?" Lord Daniel asked. "We've managed to avoid fighting them for a long time now."
"Please, I must object," the prince said loudly. "Discussing the boy's wild ideas is one thing, but any military discussions must be restricted to our council meeting afterwards. These things are not for the ears of ladies and children." He smiled patronisingly at John.
"You're not taking this seriously?" Lady Sapphire asked. "Are we in some sort of danger?"
"Don't worry, my dear," Lord Jeremy soothed, placing his hand on hers. "We in the council entertain wild ideas as a matter of course; just to be safe, and find them to be nothing more than that, wouldn't you agree, your majesty?"
The prince smiled condescendingly and nodded, but as he opened his mouth to speak he was cut off by Lord Lance.
"Ears of children maybe, but not the mind of one. You've caught my interest, John. I hope to hear from you again. Now, ladies, John, please excuse us. I think now is the time to start the council."
The others thanked Crystal's mother for the lovely meal, as if she had prepared any of it, before excusing themselves and retiring to an upstairs room. John left the house shortly afterwards, clearly feeling out of place conversing with the wives and daughters. Crystal managed to corner her mother.
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