by James Rosone
Xi shrugged. “I only pieced it together a minute ago when you mentioned the foreign spy aspect and then you brought up his name. I mean, it’s the same thing we do at our universities here in China.”
The MSS officer appeared at ease with his answer. “Are you aware that Ma Yong had met up with Professor Iverson six times over the last seven years?”
Now Xi felt that chill returning. Had Dan known that Hank was a spy?
“I’m sorry, I was not. However, Ma Yong was his student at Oxford for many years. Um, you are aware that Ma died a few weeks ago in a car accident in Oxford.”
The officer nodded. “We know. We aren’t sure if he might have inadvertently passed them information during any of his interactions with Professor Iverson. Did he ever bring anything up to you?”
Xi shook his head. “No. I’m sorry, he never did. Honestly, Ma was a bit of a loner, a serious workaholic. He would take short weekend jaunts to Macau to let off steam, but he spent most of his time working here with me. I mean, that cot over there”—Xi pointed to an empty but made-up cot—“that was where he slept most days. He was constantly here, working in the lab all the time.”
“OK, then I think that’s all the questions we have for now. If we have some more, we’ll let you know, Dr. Xi,” the intelligence officer said as he stood up.
“Hey, what are you guys going to do with Professor Iverson now that you know he’s also a spy?”
A slight smirk spread across the officer’s face. “Let’s just say a special team is being assembled to handle the known spies as your AI identifies them. We hope to cripple the West’s intelligence-gathering capabilities over the coming months—just in time for the next phase of things to start.”
********
“Mr. President, we are ready to begin Operation Chengdu,” Dr. Xi said after he finished delivering his report and the preliminary analyses of how it would play out once it started.
President Yao Jintao was least confident in this particular plan the AI had cooked up. There was a reason Hitler never deployed nerve or chemical weapons during World War II. How is this any different? he wondered.
General Li Zuocheng looked at the President, then at Xi. “That vaccine had better work,” he growled.
As head of the People’s Liberation Army, General Li had voiced how incredibly skeptical he was about unleashing a virus like this on the world. Once the genie was out of the bottle, there was no telling what would happen next. His biggest concern was what happened if the virus suddenly mutated and the vaccine ended up not working. They could end up wiping out humanity.
Foreign Minister Han Jinping leaned forward in his chair, saying forcefully, “I want to say on the record that I am against this plan. I think this is pushing things too far and it will come back to bite us later if it’s ever discovered that we manufactured this virus and summarily unleashed it on the world. Especially if we had a vaccine for it in advance. You saw the global blowback we had to deal with four years ago from the last virus.”
“Jade Dragon has war-gamed this out thousands of times. If we are to defeat the West, we cannot do it bullet for bullet, ship for ship, or aircraft for aircraft. We need to weaken them first; we need to sicken them and cripple their economy. Then and only then can we defeat the West,” Dr. Xi said defiantly.
Dr. Zhong, the virologist in charge of the program, added, “We have tested the virus on two small villages in western China. The village that had the vaccine did not have any infections when exposed to the virus. The village that was infected with the virus and did not have the vaccine had a fatality rate of one-tenth of a percent for those under the age of seventy and without any of the comorbidities we were told to target.”
“And what if they did have those medical issues? What was the death rate then?” asked President Yao.
All eyes turned to Dr. Zhong to see what she would say next. “Sixty-two percent. That would likely be lower in the West, though, as they can provide a greater level of care to their patients than these villages were able to. Still, the virus will have the desired effect. It will weaken their population and put their economy into a prolonged tailspin leading up to their election and the execution of Project Ten.”
The Foreign Minister shook his head dismissively at the news. “This is genocide, Mr. President. If we go through with this, we had better win this war, or they will surely hang us for crimes against humanity.”
President Yao looked like he wasn’t so sure if they should move forward. Dr. Xi went over the scenarios for how the coming conflict would play out if they didn’t go through with releasing the virus and then how it would turn out if they did. Releasing the virus would prolong their own food stores, reduce the long-term drag on their own economy and greatly weaken the West right as they were about to launch their attack. If a few tens of millions of even a hundred million largely sick and elderly people had to perish to usher in the new world power, then so be it. Social Darwinism would be allowed to rear its ugly head.
*******
Three Weeks Later
Task Force 7
Major General Gary Bridges looked at Nigel Younger. “You and Jessica just returned from across the Pond. This Chinese defector—he’s spilling the beans on this PLA AI supercomputer. What exactly is he alluding to that has you both so worked up?”
The military and civilians at the table looked at the SIS and CIA representatives, waiting to hear what the two of them had to say.
In his posh highborn British accent, Nigel explained, “Right, for several years we’ve known the PLA had developed some sort of super-AI. We’ve had a limited window into it. What we haven’t known, at least up until recently, was how advanced and complicated this thing was.”
Bridges bunched his eyebrows. “How about you give us the fifty-thousand-foot view of what we’re talking about?”
“Uh, yes, of course. The PLA has built a super-powerful AI program that can reasonably predict how America and the West will react to something they may do. Let me give you an example. Suppose the Chinese Navy move to enforce a blockade within the South China Sea, saying America is trespassing in their territorial waters. Prior to their making that decision and then enforcing it with their navy, their computer would war-game the likely responses by America and the West. Knowing how our navies and governments would respond makes it more likely they’ll move forward with their plan because they’ll have removed the unknown of how America or the West would react. This ability to predict how our nations will respond to a given action the Chinese may take is being applied across all domains, ranging from military to economic to banking to trade. It may be one of the reasons we’ve seen the Chinese economy explode in the last three years. They’ve been implementing this new computer’s ideas.”
“How effective could this thing really be?” quizzed Yoshio Mitani. He was their lone representative from CIRO, the Japanese Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office. Their organization had been critical of the reporting on the PLA’s AI program up to this point.
“Effective enough that they’re moving forward with some radical plans in the coming months,” Jessica Parker asserted.
“How about you give us an idea on what you mean by radical plans, Ms. Parker?” pressed General Bridges.
Turning to face him, Jessica explained, “When I talked with the defector, he shared some of the plans he knew of. While he wasn’t directly involved in them, he was involved in the computer simulations. At first, I was a bit skeptical, but at the same time, he is one of the creators of the AI and helped to build its brain and craft its ability to learn, understand, and make predictive analyses of situations.”
“That’s great, Jessica. But how about some specifics? What exactly are they cooking up?” the general demanded.
Coming to her aid, Nigel asked, “Have you ever heard of a technology called deepfake?”
Several of the people nodded while a couple stared blankly at Nigel.
“Most of us know what it is, Nigel, but why
don’t you briefly explain it and then tell us how that’s related to what the Chinese are planning on using it?” Bridges directed.
Nigel nodded. “OK, well, this is quite technical, you see, what I’m about to explain. From our understanding of the Chinese quantum computer, Jade Dragon, the communists have been teaching their little machine to generate a digital image of nearly all world leaders and American, British, French, German, and Russian politicians. They’ve been testing their likenesses to make sure they’re as accurate as possible. What they’ll be able to do with this is generate a video message of that leader saying or doing whatever they want them to say or do. The challenge is that none of us will know if it’s real or fake until it has gone through some serious electronic analysis, which will naturally take a bit of time.
“You see, what the Chinese have done through their massive data collection efforts is feed the real images, speeches, things like that into what’s called a generative neural network. Then they create a message they want that politician to say. Let’s assume they wanted to embarrass the Prime Minister of Japan. They could generate an image of the PM and have him say something rather cheeky about the President of China. The machine would play that video feed against a generative adversarial network to spot the mistakes in the fake message. As the mistakes are found, the generative neural network integrates the corrections into the next version, and they test it again. This happens hundreds of times until the message they’re creating is indistinguishable from reality. Over time, the AI learns how to recreate the perfect video of the PM and then generate future messages at will,” explained Nigel.
Yoshio Mitani looked like he had bitten down on a lemon at the thought of the Chinese generating a fake digital message from the PM’s office to humiliate Japan.
General Bridges saw the look of concern on the others’ faces. He’d known about deepfakes for a long time. It was a big concern going into the next election cycle in the US.
As if the 2016 and 2020 cycles weren’t bad enough, Bridges thought.
“Nigel, SIS has been a step or two ahead of everyone when it comes to Project Ten and this new AI supercomputer the Chinese have created. Does your organization know or has your defector relayed how the PLA may use this new information warfare capability against the allied nations and Latin America?” asked Bridges.
Nigel placed his cup of tea down. “While I appreciate the high praise, General Bridges, our organization wouldn’t have been able to piece together much of the technical aspects of what Jade Dragon or their DragonLink satellite system was capable of doing if Ms. Parker and her team hadn’t provided so much help.”
Parker smiled and waved off the compliment. She was on loan to the task force from the CIA’s Directorate of Digital Innovation or DDI. For the most part, she sat in the briefings and said very little. She seemed more comfortable as a behind-the-scenes kind of person, though she’d been instrumental in the debriefing of Ma “Daniel” Yong.
General Bridges looked at Jessica. “Maybe my question should be directed at you. Is there anything specific DDI is able to tell us about how or when the PLA may use this weapon they’ve created?”
Jessica looked like she would rather not answer, but with all eyes staring at her, she cleared her throat and replied, “This is a hard question to answer accurately, General. The obvious target is the election this fall. However, what’s truly concerning is a plan they appear to be pushing forward with to attack and destabilize the economies of the West. We’re still trying to vet the information, but if what this defector told us is true, then we’re in for a very rough year.”
“If I may, General. I feel I should also inform the group that our handler who had been obtaining the information for us about Project Ten has rather unexpectedly died,” Nigel announced.
“Whoa. He died? How? What happened?” asked General Bridges, taken aback by the news.
“Yes, it was rather a shock to our operation. Two weeks after our handler convinced his source to defect, he traveled to Asia to meet with another source. Sometime during that trip, he apparently came into contact with a new virus that appears to be spreading wildly in Asia and now Europe. We’re still working to confirm this, but this virus may actually be part of a more nefarious scheme on the part of the Chinese. As Jessica alluded to earlier, we are still working to verify this before we make a definitive conclusion,” Nigel explained.
“I heard there’s a new virus or superbug. It supposedly originated in Chengdu, China, before spreading beyond their borders. Do you really think the Chinese would unleash something like this on their own people, though?” inquired one of the task force members.
Nigel shrugged in response. “Perhaps. I mean, what better way to achieve plausible deniability for releasing a genetically engineered virus than to release it first in your own country?”
*******
National Security Advisor’s Office
White House
Blain Wilson loved his job as National Security Advisor, but right now, he missed his family. He missed being around his fifteen-year-old daughter and his seventeen-year-old son. They were growing up fast, and soon they’d both be out of high school and off to college. He loved this job, but man, it was killing him.
Wilson had known when he’d accepted the NSA position that it would be one of those all-consuming jobs. He now understood why the people before him had turned over every few years. The position had a way of sucking the life out of you. Providing critical national security advice to the President was no easy feat. Hundreds, sometimes thousands or even millions of lives could depend on what he told the President or advised him to do. That was a big weight to carry on one’s shoulders.
“Mike,” he called out to his executive assistant, “what’s this report from the CDC all about? The one you put on my desk an hour ago?”
A second later, Mike walked into his office from around the corner. “Yeah, I meant to tell you about that earlier before you got pulled into the Oval. Someone from the CDC sent this to me this morning, asking if I could get you to take a look at it. It’s something about a new bug or something popping up in China, Italy, Germany, and the UK.”
Wilson folded his arms. “Some kind of new bug? Is it dangerous? Why is the CDC wanting me to look at it?”
Mike only shrugged. The memories of the last superbug to have come out of China four years ago were still fresh in everyone’s minds.
“All right, fine. Get me the person’s number who sent this over to you. I’ll spend a few minutes reading over the summary, if they sent one, and get myself up to speed.”
Mike scurried out of the office. Wilson flipped open the first page of the report and started reading.
Summary of COVID-24:
SARS-CoV-3 is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 3. Common symptoms include fever, sweating, sneezing, coughing, sporadic nerve pain across the extremities and fatigue. While we are still in the early stages of understanding this virus, most cases identified to date have resulted in mild symptoms that appear to resolve themselves without the need for medical intervention.
However, an unknown percentage of people infected have experienced acute respiratory distress syndrome, requiring medical intervention.
In China, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom, there have been reports of some patients suffering from multiple organ failure, to include septic shock. At this present time, we are unable to determine how contagious the virus is or its incubation period. Until more of this information can be identified, the CDC recommends issuing a level 2 travel advisory for China, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
Wilson folded the paper back over and laid it down on his desk.
What the hell? he wondered. They were still recovering from COVID-19, and that was four years ago. Now we need to be worried about a new superbug…out of China again? As if Iran, ISIS, North Korea, and the peace deal in Ukraine weren’t enough to deal with…
A minute later, Mike
walked back in and placed the phone number for Clarence Bauer, the Deputy Director for the CDC, on his desk.
Wilson dialed the number and waited for the call to connect. It rang once. “This is Dr. Bauer. How can I help you?” Wilson thought the man sounded awfully chipper, considering the memo he’d sent to the White House a few hours ago.
“Hello, Dr. Bauer. This is Blain Wilson, the National Security Advisor. I understand you were trying to get a hold of me.”
“Ah, thank you for returning my call so promptly, Mr. Wilson. Did you read the memo I sent to your office regarding this new COVID virus?” Dr. Bauer asked. The voice on the other end had changed from chipper to concerned, a change that wasn’t lost on Wilson.
“I did. It sounds a little scary. How big of a problem will this be?” asked Wilson.
“Are you sitting down?” asked the voice from far away.
Wilson felt his stomach tighten as he replied, “Should I be?”
“I think it would be best,” said Dr. Bauer.
Chapter Fifteen
Prisoner Swap
April 2024
Presidio Modelo
Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
The electrical current surged through the prisoner’s body one more time before he passed out from the pain.
“Wake him up and begin again,” ordered the captain conducting the interrogation, Miguel Rodriguez.
One of the guards splashed some cold water on the man’s face and across his body. The shock of the cold water barely caused the man to flinch. The guard then cracked open a smelling salt tab and placed it under his nose.
The prisoner was startled awake, only to realize he was still being tortured.
“Captain Rodriguez, come here for a moment,” a voice from behind him called out with an air of authority, letting the captain know someone more senior had just shown up.
When the army officer exited the cell room, Rodriguez snapped to attention at the sight of Colonel Leopoldo Cintra. “Captain, how long have you been questioning the prisoner?”