by James Rosone
Holding a hand up to pause their excitement, he added, “In order to increase the Mk III’s range and speed, we had to decrease its warhead. It’s gone from two hundred and ten kilograms to one hundred and fifty kilograms. We did, however, swap out the traditional high-explosive mixture with a new incendiary mixture, designed to work in water and burn at temperatures of two thousand degrees Celsius. Initial tests show the smaller warhead is actually able to cause significantly more damage because of the incendiary mixture involved.”
One of the captains raised his hand to ask a question. Admiral Wei nodded for him to speak. “Sir, what is the maximum speed of the Changzheng?”
“Its maximum speed is thirty-eight knots. That said, what I would like to show you next is our companion ship to the Changzheng—and, no, I do not mean our new aircraft carriers under construction. I will unveil to you the new Type 60 Dingyuan battle cruiser.”
What had become abundantly clear to the senior leadership of the PLA through the work of Dr. Xi and Project Ten was that China would likely never surpass the Americans when it came to supercarriers. Try as China might, the US had one hundred years of experience building and operating them. They had a long and storied history of pilot training programs and aircraft to enable these warships to dominate the seas for decades to come. What Dr. Xi’s program had shown the PLA leadership, however, was an alternative path the Navy could pursue that would allow them to leapfrog ahead of the American Navy, despite their advantage with the carriers.
Under the direction of the AI, the Navy had used the construction of domestic carriers as a diversion to develop the supership of the future. When China had purchased the Admiral Ushakov, a Russian Kirov battle cruiser slated for the scrapyards, Chinese shipbuilders had begun the process of reverse engineering it. When the AI had been fed all the relevant data and given the task of creating a warship for the future, it had created the Type 60 Dingyuan-class battle cruiser.
If China could not gain naval parity with the American carriers, then she would focus on putting them on the bottom. The Type 95A Changzheng and Type 60 Dingyuan would be instrumental to China’s dominance of the sea and their ability to challenge the Americans.
Admiral Wei saw smiles on the faces of the surface warfare captains. As a display of the ship’s details was brought up behind him, Wei explained with excitement, “The Type 60s are three hundred meters long with a beam of thirty meters. When fully loaded, they displace thirty-one thousand tons. The ship is powered by two nuclear reactors, giving the ship unlimited range. More importantly, they give the ship an enormous amount of power for future weapon upgrades and speed for her engines.
“At flank speed, the Type 60s can sprint to nearly forty knots. This makes them the largest and fastest surface combatants since World War II. The AI was told who this ship would most likely be fighting, so it spared no expense in developing both offensive and defensive capabilities to defeat the military it was built to fight against—America.
“One of the defensive features the AI built into the ship was an improved armor belt. The lessons of survivability in the World War II battle involving the Yamato and Musashi had gone into the design and production of the Type 60s. When the Musashi finally sank in October of 1944, she had sustained an estimated nineteen torpedo and seventeen bomb hits from American carrier-based aircraft. This attack illustrated the importance of survivability in battle. We built the Type 60 with two considerations in mind. First, the ships would need to be able to take multiple hits and still be able to stay in the fight. Second, they needed to be able to kill everything they went up against, both surface and subsurface vessels.”
Admiral Wei saw the ship captains nod in agreement. “To that end, the Dingyuan will have one hundred and sixty VLS tubes. Fifty will be dedicated to anti-air operations, to include interdicting enemy cruise and ballistic missiles. The remaining are designated for antiship and land-attack operations, depending on the type of mission the ship will be carrying out. For close-in defense, the ship will have eight H/PJ12 CIWS guns.
“As you can see, gentlemen, this gives the ship an enormous punching capability, but also the ability to defend against enemy aircraft and antiship missiles. With survivability in mind, we opted to forgo the 130mm turret cannon on the front of the ship and added four high-energy optical laser systems instead. As you can see, they are strategically positioned across the ship to provide the most flexibility to engage a target. Keep in mind, this is still a relatively new technology, even for the Americans. We believe that, with a bit more refinement, this technology will change the way ships fight for the foreseeable future. This ship is being built for the future of naval warfare, not the past.”
The surface warfare captains smiled at the thought of having lasers on their ships. The American warships wouldn’t be the only ones testing this new weapons platform out.
Admiral Wei turned to face the man whose technology had made this ship possible. “Dr. Xi’s AI has taken a page from the Americans and made the ship as efficient and advanced as our current capabilities would allow us to build. What technology his department couldn’t steal or replicate, his AI has fabricated out of ones and zeros.”
Wei clapped a couple of times and bowed to Dr. Xi. This caused the other naval officers to erupt in applause. Dr. Xi appeared taken aback and flustered by the outpouring of praise.
Wei knew that the most challenging part next would be identifying and then training the 1,065 officers and enlisted it would take to operate the three battle cruisers. Xi had gotten them this far; now it was time for him to do his part.
Once they had taken their seats again, one of the senior captains raised his hand. “Admiral, if I may. Could Dr. Xi explain this AI concept a bit more to us? Maybe help us understand how and why this new technology will revolutionize warfare?”
Admiral Wei nodded in agreement and motioned for Dr. Xi to come back up.
*******
Walking to the center of the stage again, Xi looked over the group of military officers, realizing they were the future of the Navy. It would be these men who would implement the strategies and plans his AI would be generating for decades to come. He tried to keep that in mind as he explained who he was and what his department was providing them.
“Captains, as I stated earlier, I am a scientist. I am the foremost expert in the world when it comes to the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning,” Xi explained. “Over the last twenty years, I have made it my life’s work to create a semiautonomous thinking computer—one that we, the government of China, could task with solving problems that are too complex for our human brains to understand. We also wanted this new super-AI to help us manage and govern the country better—everything from mineral and resource management to manufacturing efficiencies. Jade Dragon can perform more than two thousand quadrillion computations a second. This is ten times faster than any other existing supercomputer of today—”
One of the admirals interrupted, “Dr. Xi, this is all important work Jade Dragon is doing for our country. What you achieved for China is nothing short of astounding. But perhaps you can be a bit more direct in explaining to us how this super-AI you’ve created will benefit us.”
Xi paused for a second before speaking. He knew he sometimes droned on about technical details and lost his audience. Taking a deep breath in, he collected his thoughts and tried to explain a bit more clearly.
“Admiral, Captains, let me explain why this super-AI will change the future of modern warfare and why Jade Dragon will defeat America and the West. Admiral Wei and General Li Zuocheng told me that the PLA routinely conducts war game scenarios using tabletop exercises. They informed me that just five years ago, your organizations integrated computer-generated exercises. Have you participated in them?” Xi asked.
They all nodded, so Xi pointed to one of the captains.
“Captain Chin, when you participated in hese exercises, did you believe the adversary you squared off against accurately responded to
the moves you and your fellow captains made?”
Captain Chin slowly shook his head no.
“Why do you believe the adversary’s response to be inaccurate?” Xi pressed, feeling more confident as he spoke.
Captain Chin explained, “In the scenario, my squadron of ships was fighting an Australian and American task force. We won, but honestly, I’m not sure we would have had it been a real scenario.”
“Can you explain why you think you would have lost had it been a real scenario?” Xi pressed.
Captain Chin looked nervously to Admiral Wei, as if asking how much he should say. The admiral smiled and nodded, telling him to go ahead.
Taking a breath in, Captain Chin clarified his remark. “I’m not sure how the American warships or those particular captains would have responded to our moves. Since none of our crews or even ourselves have been in combat and the Americans have, we lack the kind of experience that only comes from having to make life-or-death decisions.”
Xi smiled broadly at the response. “That is exactly right, Captain Chin. You are lacking the necessary information to know if the move you will make is accurate and will play out with a degree of certainty in real life as it has in the exercise. The exercise was only as accurate as the data you were able to put into it. That is where Jade Dragon is changing things and how we will leverage that data to win future wars.”
Captain Chin nodded in agreement but then asked, “Dr. Xi, if Jade Dragon is some super-smart AI, how will it acquire the data needed to understand our adversary and then craft the necessary strategy to win?”
“Ah, now that is an excellent question. If you all will indulge me for a moment, I will explain how all of that will work. Back in 2015, the American Office of Personnel Management had a security breach. Our hacker team infiltrated the organization and stole the security clearance records of nearly twenty-one million current and former US government employees, as well as their families and associates that were named in their background investigations. This data was among the first to be entered into the AI when it was barely online.”
Crinkling his brow, Captain Chin asked, “How is any of that relevant to us right now?”
“That is another very good question, Captain Chin.”
Xi turned on a device on his wrist, and the screen behind him came back to life. The image of the captain of the Gerald R. Ford appeared on the screen. Xi made a swiping motion with his hand and the picture enlarged.
“This gentleman is Captain Robert Womack. He is the current commanding officer of the Ford. When the OPM breach happened in 2015, he was assigned to the USS Ronald Reagan as an F/A-18 Squadron XO. When we received the OPM data, we fed that data into the AI. The AI was then fed additional information concerning officers who would be approaching command rank a decade later. It was specifically looking for officers who showed promise and whose evaluations showed their potential for command. For the next several years, the AI continued to benchmark the initial assessments it had made of various officers against those who went on to be chosen for commands in the Navy.
“As the AI correctly identified a set of officers, it dug deeper to understand why it was correct. When a group of officers was incorrectly selected, it likewise looked deeper at the data to figure out why it was wrong. Over the years, Jade Dragon refined its software until it was coming close to ninety-six percent accuracy in determining who would go on to receive a command position. Jade Dragon did this not just across the American Navy but across all the American service branches. In the case of Captain Womack, he was first in his class at Annapolis and had stellar marks throughout his career. When Jade Dragon looked at all of the data we had collected on him, it accurately predicted he would go on to command an F/A-18 squadron on a carrier, a prerequisite command to become a carrier commander.”
Captain Chin cut in, “This is to be expected of an officer that attended their Naval Academy. If the Americans had such an AI as this Jade Dragon, they could tell you the same about any of the men in this room.”
Xi smiled and raised his index finger.
“Yes, this is true, Captain. What we didn’t know then was that Womack also had a drinking problem. You see, the malware that caused the OPM breach was part of Jade Dragon. It was in the entirety of the American system: banking, entertainment, internet service providers, smartphone apps, etcetera. It was everywhere, and we dedicated an entire cyber brigade to creating apps that Americans would download like an addiction. Once we had Womack’s credit card information, the AI discerned purchase patterns and predicted with ninety-eight percent certainty that he would jeopardize his career if he didn’t address his drinking problem.”
Xi saw that the captains and admirals were now very interested in what he was saying. “This prediction eventually came to fruition in 2018, when he was involved in a minor accident where he was at fault. The Navy swept it under the rug, and by 2020, he was a squadron commander. Jade Dragon had predicted this. However, the AI then predicted that he would in fact go on to command an aircraft carrier within two years.”
Pausing for effect, Xi added, “Jade Dragon’s algorithms have evolved on their own. It learned to predict behavior based on the information we were presenting it. The more information we made available to it, the more accurate it became. This is something we call predictive behavioral analytics. Not only was it able to predict how Womack’s vice would impact his career, the AI was able to impact the leadership’s response to his actions—however, the Jade Dragon’s analysis can now do much more. Now we not only know his personal weakness, but based on all of the data we’ve mined on Womack, Jade Dragon can accurately predict how he would respond given any number of battle scenarios. We can also predict when exactly his vice will impact his decision making.”
This information seemed to electrify the room as the men assembled grasped the ramification of what they had just been told.
At this point, Admiral Wei rose from his chair and took center stage. He motioned for Dr. Xi to take a seat, satisfied he had explained what Jade Dragon was and how it would change warfare forever.
*******
“This brings us to why you are here. You now know about the Type 60 and 95A. Let me introduce you to Captains Tsai, Gao, and Sung.” Wei motioned for the three men to stand. They did so and bowed slightly to the others in the room.
“These captains before you command three of our cargo container ships—ships we converted into Arsenal ships,” Wei announced. He raised his hand, and his aide projected a standard cargo container ship on the screen. The captains of actual combat vessels quietly snickered at these hulking behemoths on screen.
“Captain Tsai, please enlighten your naval counterparts on the merits of your ship,” Admiral Wei commanded.
Captain Tsai sprang to his feet and bowed.
“Yes, sir. Gentlemen, my vessel has the outward appearance of a standard cargo container ship. However, three hundred and fifty vertical launch tubes are located in the bow of the ship, hidden under a retractable cover topped by cargo containers for appearances.”
Tsai continued, “Our load can and will change depending on the mission. Powered by a single nuclear reactor like those found on the Type 60, our ship’s flank speed can reach thirty-six knots. This ship can carry up to six Changhe Z-18 ASW helicopters. For all intents and purposes, these are standard cargo freighters that in fact haul cargo and carry out specific cargo runs. However, they are also merchant raiders, designed as a first-strike or counterstrike weapon should the need arise. Our purpose is to hide from a potential adversary in plain sight.”
A video appeared of the ship’s schematics and ended with her firing a salvo of all three hundred and fifty vertical launch systems or VLS rockets in sequence. Captain Tsai bowed, but this time his naval counterparts had stopped snickering.
*******
How did China manage to build four Type 95As and three Type 60 nuclear-powered battle cruisers while speeding up production of the Type 55s? Captain Lee pondered in disb
elief. How did China create nuclear-powered Arsenal ships without the Americans having the slightest clue? What had really thrown him was the carrier deception. China had intentionally spent billions on ships that the Navy really didn’t even care about.
When the Liaoning had set sail, the entire Chinese Navy had swelled with pride. Lee had heard the rumors of problems with the catapults and the power plants aboard but brushed them off, assuming that the evolution of China’s fledgling carrier operations had some kinks to work out. Now it made sense. The carrier was a distraction.
When the Shandong had gone to sea, she had been plagued by the same problems. At first, Lee had felt the humiliation, as the rest of the PLA Navy had. He had known deep down inside that China would never achieve parity with the United States when it came to their carrier supremacy. Now that he knew that had never been the plan, he felt pride in the PLA Navy once again.
When Captain Tsai had first stood to speak, Lee couldn’t help but sneer as his fellow commanders did. Surely this merchant captain wasn’t their equal. But after the schematics of his ship appeared on screen, followed by the video of her firing a sequential salvo of three hundred and fifty missiles, Captain Tsai seemed a much larger man than he had moments before.
When Tsai bowed and took his seat, the room fell quiet for a moment as each sailor absorbed the information in shock. Then every man stood and clapped all at once. Admiral Zhang of the Northern Fleet raised a hand to quiet the men. Lee and the rest of the captains took notes as one admiral after the other detailed their plan for the Long March across the Pacific Ocean to South America and their part in the plan.