by James Rosone
As the briefing ended, Dr. Winters raised his hand, signaling that he wanted to ask something. “I appreciate your organizations’ time and effort in developing this comprehensive brief. However, before we end this meeting, I’d like to clarify a few things. My first question is what’s the motivation behind this sudden increase in military activity in Asia? How do we know that this is not just a distraction on the part of China or Russia? All this activity could just be a smoke screen for what’s happening in Ukraine and the Middle East.”
Both of the directors seemed a bit put off at the questions, partially because they were just stumped. They didn’t have a good answer for his questions.
The Director of the CIA finally admitted, “We don’t know why there has been such a run up of activity in China and Russia, at least not yet.”
“Well, at least you are being honest with me,” answered Dr. Winters. “It’s important that we know if the Chinese are moving troops or heavy equipment to the border regions, as well as if they are shuffling around any major airwings. Unless we know some of that information, then it will be hard for us to determine what their intentions are and what we tell the President…I want both of your agencies to figure this out and come back with an updated briefing within the next thirty days,” he ordered.
There was some grumbling that was barely audible around the table, but the directors eventually agreed to collect additional information and meet with Dr. Winters again.
As he left the room, Dr. Winters was frustrated by the lack of preparation that he saw. He groaned to himself, “The President has asked for a comprehensive strategy on Ukraine and how the country should deal with Russia. If the National Security Council isn’t giving him the best possible information, we could end up with a diplomatic misstep or an accidental conflict.”
He decided that in addition to sending out the intelligence agencies to complete their previously inadequate work, he would make some phone calls of his own. He was a very connected man. Everyone he knew had a connection to someone with the information he sought.
Mongolian Airborne
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Chinggis Khaan International Airport
The Xian Y-20 was a beautiful, heavy lift, jet-powered aircraft, similar to the American C-17. Nearly every Y-20 in the Chinese air force inventory was in formation as they carried the 43rd Airborne Division to their first ever combat jump.
Captain Ma and his Company had been in the air for nearly two and a half hours as they approached their drop zone, the Chinggis Khaan International Airport in Mongolia. Ma had no idea that the fictitious airport they had been training to capture for months on end was an exact replica of this very place, until two days ago when he had finally been told the target of their first live mission. Captain Ma didn’t know why China would invade Mongolia; he only knew that his division would be conducting combat jumps all across the country and he had a job to do.
As the aircraft droned on, word came down from the flight crew. “We are approaching the drop zone,” they announced.
The lights inside the cavernous aircraft switched from a soft blue to red as the jump master prepared to open the side doors. Then, the door opened. The cool summer air began to circulate throughout the aircraft as they descended to 3,000 feet and made their final adjustments. The jump master signaled with his hands for everyone to stand up and get ready.
Captain Ma stood up along with the rest of his men and began to do a final check of their gear. Then, the light near the two open doors turned from red to green. The troops immediately began to exit the aircraft, just as they had done in training dozens of times before. In less than a minute, Captain Ma was shuffling towards the exit as he followed the man in front of him out the aircraft. All 110 paratroopers from his company were now descending on the airport below them.
Ma immediately felt the rush of air around his body as he leapt from the aircraft and began his freefall towards the ground below. As his chute opened, he began to survey his landing site beneath him. He could see the airport lights were still out. “So far, so good,” he thought.
He and his men had been told that the cyber warfare guys would be turning the lights out across the country. Most of the officers in his division had seemed skeptical, but surely, they would be believers now. In minutes, his troopers would be on the ground moving to secure their various objectives, along with the rest of their brigade.
It was nearly 0330 in the morning, making it the ideal time for them to capture the airport and the country. However, as Captain Ma reached the height of around 1,000 feet off the ground, he suddenly saw dozens of figures running around on the ground near the military side of the airport. While Ma’s company was responsible for capturing the civilian side, he felt a sense of panic as he realized that his sister company might be about to meet some serious resistance. Then, all hell broke loose.
Near one of the military hangers, Captain Ma could make out the distinct sound of an armored vehicle starting up. Shortly afterwards, another one roared to life. Their floodlights turned on, and suddenly, several large caliber machine guns began to open fire on the paratroopers descending towards to the earth. BANG, BANG, BANG! Green tracers crisscrossed through the night sky, reaching out for the falling soldiers.
“I’m almost to the ground,” thought Captain Ma. “I have to focus on my unit’s objectives…I can’t think about the shooting going on at the other end of the airport.”
In what felt like an instant, he found himself down on the ground, rolling up his parachute while his eyes quickly located his drop bag. He ran for it. As he did, he heard his senior sergeant call out to him.
“Captain Ma! Over here. We are forming up over here” his Senior Sergeant, Xe, announced.
Ma ran towards the small cluster of his soldiers as they were quickly forming up into their platoons and began to move towards their objectives. Just as they had practiced in training, they moved rapidly towards their various points, securing the civilian side of the airport. They encountered several security guards as they secured the terminal, but none of them put up a fight and they quickly surrendered.
While his company continued to secure their various objectives, Captain Ma was comforted as he heard the shooting die down on the military side. “Clearly, the other company has subdued the enemy vehicles and has the situation under control,” he thought with relief.
While their battalion captured the international airport, the rest of their brigade was landing all around the capital. Several Special Forces units were hitting key targets within the city, capturing the President and the Prime Minister along with other key members within the government. By the time the sun came up on Sunday, the 21st of August 2017, the people of Mongolia woke up to the sight of Chinese paratroopers walking the streets of the major cities across the country.
In just a single day, the 43rd Airborne Division of the People’s Liberation Army Airborne Forces had essentially captured the entire power structure of Mongolia. However, the rest of the world would not fully react to the news until much later. Information on the takeover was heavily controlled by the Chinese press, and the major world powers were far too distracted by the situation in Eastern Ukraine, where the Russians had just instituted a no-fly zone. Not to mention, the majority of Americans could not identify Mongolia on a map. The victory was swift and somehow almost unnoticed, even though it happened in plain sight.
War in Europe
Beijing, China
US Embassy, Chancellery Building
Ambassador Max Bryant had been appointed to be the US Ambassador to China by the new US President because he was a lifelong friend of China’s President Xi. It was hoped that this friendship would give the US a competitive edge in the looming trade negotiations. As Ambassador Bryant sat in his office reviewing the latest State Department intelligence summary, he could not believe what he was reading. The Russians had shot down several NATO aircraft over Ukraine, and now they were demanding that US and NATO forces withdraw
from the country or face severe consequences.
His Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) had called an emergency meeting down in “the box” in an hour to discuss these developments. He hoped that once they got to the secured facility inside the Embassy, his DCM and CIA station chief would be able to provide him with some better insight as to what was going on in eastern Europe and how it would affect things there in China.
Then of course there was the situation in Mongolia, which he had also recently learned about. “The President put out a statement condemning the Chinese takeover of Mongolia, but what exactly does that mean?” he thought. “What does the President want me to do about it?”
Secretary of State Johnson had asked his team to determine what the Chinese government’s intentions were with Mongolia and if this was just a temporary incursion or something more permanent. Ambassador Bryant placed the intelligence summary in the folder on the right side of his desk and grabbed his notepad as he headed out of the office to the bowels of the Embassy. As he walked down the hall and got into the elevator, the Senior Defense Official, Major General Robert Kip, joined him.
MG Kip was the senior defense official stationed at the Embassy, and was responsible for helping the DCM and Ambassador address and deal with the myriad of defense issues and challenges between the US and China. His insight and knowledge in military affairs had proven to be invaluable the last eighteen months he had been stationed at the Embassy. While his tour in Beijing was ending in six months, Ambassador Bryant planned on leveraging his expertise as often as he could.
While they were still moving from floor to floor, Ambassador Bryant asked, “What do you make of the situation happening in Europe?” He was hoping to get a sense of what his military advisor was thinking.
Pondering the question for a minute, MG Kip answered, “I think things are heating up with Russia, and I’m not sure how our folks in Washington are going to deal with it,” he said honestly.
The elevator dinged, letting them know they had reached the basement of the building, where the “box” was located. Inside of each US Embassy was a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF), where there was a Top-Secret computer and connection to both the intelligence community and headquarters back home. The SCIF at this new Embassy building (which had been built in 2008) had a larger secured facility than most. The CIA used the chamber often to communicate with their home agency, and kept this room staffed nearly twenty-four hours a day.
The two gentlemen walked down the hallway to a large cavernous room that was slightly raised above the ground and enclosed in a copper mesh. They walked in and saw the rest of the leadership team for the embassy already assembled. There was the head Regional Security Office, the FBI’s legal attaché, the senior political officer, the CIA’s Chief of Station, the Defense Intelligence Agency representative, the Deputy Chief of Mission (who was the senior career diplomat) and the Senior Defense Official who walked in with Ambassador Bryant.
With everyone seated, the meeting began. Deputy Chief of Mission Tim Gilmore started the discussion. “Well, ladies and gentlemen, the Russians have issued an ultimatum to NATO; they’ve given NATO until the end of the week to withdraw their forces back across the Dnieper River or they will be forcibly removed. Then, they have another week to withdraw completely from Ukraine. While Europe is not our area of responsibility, we need to consider how the Russian actions are playing out here in Asia, and China in particular.”
The others in the room looked around at each other and then back at the DCM. The political officer, Vincent Jones, spoke up next. “Well, I’m not sure how the whole Russian angle fits into this, but I met with my counterpart yesterday afternoon and it appears that China is not considering the situation with Mongolia a short-term problem. They insist that the Mongolian government has been complicit in the violence against their citizens and more importantly, they believe that Mongolia is a part of Greater China--a lost province that they are bringing back into the fold.”
Snorting before responding, the Chief of Station retorted, “China has been going on and on about their ‘Greater China’ policy for decades. They still believe in the Qing Dynasty, which encompasses Mongolia and most of Southeast Asia.” He sighed before continuing, “Look, my agency does not believe there is a coincidence or link between what is going on in Europe and the sudden annexation of Mongolia, but I do. I think the Chinese are using the situation in Europe to expand their territory and return China back to the borders that existed prior to 1911.”
Ambassador Bryant signaled that he wanted to add something. “I have known President Xi for more than thirty years. I do not believe he would lead China towards a confrontation with the US. He wants to improve relations with America and focus on jobs. What evidence do we have that China is moving towards a greater military confrontation?” he asked, skeptical of what the Station Chief had just said.
The DCM held up his hand before anyone could get another word in edgewise. “I’d like to get our military members in on the discussion now. What are your thoughts, gentlemen?”
The senior Defense Intelligence Agency representative, Terry Bell, interjected, “--Look, we have seen an enormous increase in Chinese military activity. I’ve been stationed here in China for fifteen years. I would like to think I know a thing or two about how they operate and what they are doing. I’m just going to address the military perspective and leave the politics to you professionals. Over the last two decades, the Chinese have spent an inordinate amount of money modernizing their force. They know where they are weak and where we are strong. They have built their force structure around those strengths and weaknesses.”
“Right now, they are moving entire army groups from one part of the country to another part for ‘training exercises.’ That’s a load of crock. The entire airborne force that captured Mongolia has already been replaced by regular soldiers and transferred down south. They have moved nearly 500,000 soldiers towards the borders of Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar. They have shifted nearly 70% of their entire air force to bases within striking range of those countries. Never in the fifteen years I’ve been here in China have I seen them move this many soldiers or military equipment from one part of the country to the other for an ‘exercise.’” He hoped he would be able to convince the people in the room of the seriousness of what was happening.
MG Kip added, “The unique thing about these moves by the Chinese military is that they are intentionally avoiding the appearance of any hostility towards Taiwan. They are even drawing from forces stationed in that area to be moved further south. I believe they are doing this because they want to assure the US that any future military moves they make are not directed at any US allies, and are rather aimed at what they view as ‘internal affairs’ within China.”
The DCM brought everyone’s thoughts back to the initial question. “So, what is our opinion then that we want to transmit back to headquarters and the National Security Council?”
Everyone thought about that for a moment, and then slowly, each of them gave their opinions. The consensus was that China, while certainly acting provocatively towards their neighbors, was not directly threatening the United States, global trade, or any US allies yet. China might move to annex the countries of Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar, but would not attack Taiwan, Japan or South Korea. They decided to write up a report to this effect and send it back to D.C.
As to how to proceed, the people in the room simply could not come to an agreement. The debate over what their official response should be and what their positions should be behind the scenes remained cordial, even though there were strong disagreements. Although the meeting was originally only supposed to last for an hour or two, they were there for over four hours. Ultimately though, they could not come to an agreement, and decided to wait on direction from the higher-ups.
Cancelled Party in the Jungle
Okinawa, Japan
Torii Station
Chief Warrant Officer Four (CW4) Charles Lee “Chucky” w
as excited about the planned trip to Vietnam at the end of the week. They had been planning this JCET for nearly a year with the ODC, a female Lieutenant Colonel from the Embassy in Hanoi. As Chucky was finalizing the contents of his pack, his battalion commander, Lieutenant Colonel Hank Mitchel, knocked on the door to his office. “You got a second, Chief?” he asked. “We need to talk.”
“Sure thing, Sir,” he replied, placing the last item in his bag before closing it up. He walked around his desk and shook Colonel Mitchel’s hand. “What can I do for you, Sir?”
“I believe the JCET is going to be canceled, and I wanted to go over the change with you,” he said, knowing that it would disappoint the men.
“And here I thought we were going to get an all-expenses paid vacation to Vietnam!” Chucky replied with a wide grin as he tried to lighten the mood. He knew the colonel was looking forward to the JCET as well. He didn’t typically go with the teams that often, but he had planned on being a part of this one to help with the country assessment.
Laughing at Chucky’s comment, Colonel Mitchel replied, “You know, my Dad wouldn’t have called it a ‘vacation’ when he went to Vietnam in the summer of 67’, but I do appreciate your attempt at humor.” He signaled for them to walk to his office and talk further once they got there.
As they walked through the door, Chucky saw Major Lance Witten, the battalion’s S2 (intelligence officer) was waiting for them there as well. The colonel gestured to him. “I wanted Major Witten to be here as well. He has some intelligence updates that you should be aware of,” Mitchel said as he walked around the desk to get to his seat.