In certain cases, the process of collapse was so catastrophic that even sophisticated societies could only regress to a less complex system. The disintegrating Roman Empire saw its system of government, laws, order, infrastructure, roads, aqueducts, sewers, and commercial system disappear within a few years. While the cities and the countryside collapsed into poverty and chaos, the population rapidly diminished, and knowledge was lost. Certain parts of Europe regressed drastically and for a long stretch.
There are also cases where civilizations (e.g., ancient Egypt and China) have succeeded in surviving multiple invasions, famines, and civil wars. In spite of extreme tensions and massive destruction, they were able to adapt to changing conditions. They assimilated invaders or assimilated to them, they accepted new ideas and continued to function with almost the same fundamental culture and institutions as before, sometimes for millennia. It can happen that societies are confronted with so many problems—especially when these call into question the fundamental beliefs of their culture—that they cannot adapt, eventually disappearing amid famine and war. Their populations suffer the worst physical and psychological suffering imaginable.
In his book Collapse, the American author Jared Diamond speaks of the conscious choice to disappear: elites preferring collapse and the disappearance of their entire people rather than having to pay the political price of change and adaptation to the new ways of thinking and living. The Mayan Empire, the Vikings of Greenland, the Easter Island civilization saw their societies collapse in a very short time. Shocks can come so suddenly and unexpectedly that they lead to the total disappearance of a population. Jared Diamond studies the reasons societies survive or disappear. He identifies five causes of collapse:
Environmental damage.
Climate change.
Hostile neighbors.
The end of help and support from friendly neighbors.
The failure of leaders to find constructive responses to problems and to give meaning to a new reality.
Although each situation is unique, one historically frequent cause of social collapse is the convergence of more than one of these factors. They weaken society and provoke internal unrest or civil war. External invaders quickly profit from these weaknesses to attack and destroy it.
The most frequent problem is scarcity of resources, often caused by population growth and unsustainable habits. In agrarian societies, it is a matter of the scarcity of drinking water, food, wood, or other essential materials. Villages and cities, originally established in places with abundant resources—fertile soil, rivers rich in fish or forests full of game, etc.—saw their population prosper and grow, using ever more resources and working ever more land, cutting down trees, polluting rivers, killing off all the game, and catching all the fish. Over time, thanks to demographic pressure on the land to produce sufficient food, the land is degraded, eroded, exhausted, or turned into desert. Productivity sinks. The price of access to resources grows quickly, for they must be sought ever farther away, or wars must be financed in order to loot the resources of other peoples.
The maintenance costs of an expanding society quickly get too high. This is the case with every empire studied by Paul Kennedy in his celebrated The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies. Empires extend their power over territories in order to control resources, but the costs of empire also rise. There are roads and lines of communication to be protected, storehouses and ever expanding logistical chains to be secured, frontiers to guard, regional bases and garrisons to maintain against the will of the local populations, and, finally, police operations against people who must be governed by force. A bureaucracy must be put in place to manage everything, and it quickly becomes enormous and inefficient. So much expense kindles greed, which creates a culture of corruption and power struggles at all levels, further increasing costs and the resistance to change.
This is exactly what happened to the Roman, Chinese, Ottoman, and British Empires—and what is happening today to the American Empire. In the long term, if these costs become prohibitive (that is, if they consume more energy than they bring in), the population will begin to suffer the effects of resource deficiencies. It is at this moment that most societies go to war with their neighbors in order to appropriate the resources they lack.
Conflicts often begin when populations start to think they have different objectives from their neighbors, and when it has become socially acceptable to resolve conflicts by force. Violence becomes all the more routine insofar as people’s real needs are no longer covered, and as cultural and ethnic traditions encourage it. Well-known cultural factors are then put in place that trivialize violence and focus it on a well-identified target: feelings of superiority, devaluing others, authoritarianism, a monolithic culture, a dogmatic ideology, etc.
Sometimes civil wars, consciously or not, allow population levels to be regulated downwards. The example of the 1994 Rwandan genocide is instructive. It was generated by a combination of crises: ecological (overpopulation and a drop in agricultural resources), economic (hunger and inequality), and political (civil wars, etc.), as well as an upset ethnic equilibrium. Mass murder was most extensive in the poorest regions.
Finally, lowered resilience is another factor to be taken into account. An all-too-affluent society, not used to hardships and physical and intellectual effort, is often quickly corrupted, and its reflexes, dulled. It no longer knows how to value what it obtains too easily. It tends to create a narcissistic, materialistic, and lazy culture, which generates a less competitive young generation preoccupied solely with immediate enjoyment.
The coup de grace is often given by a change in equilibrium of some sort. Distraught and overwhelmed, these civilizations give up the fight and totally disintegrate, finally disappearing.
If all this reminds you of a civilization near you, it is because you have understood the situation in which we find ourselves.
Considered over the long term, 200,000 years of human existence, the current industrial era is only a brief moment. Mechanization has allowed us to grow and consume renewable and unrenewable resources at a rate that cannot be maintained. When these resources come to an end, and major ecosystems start to crumble, we will have met all the conditions for a collapse of a global industrial society.
The Perfect Storm is Approaching
This perfect storm, unleashing global crises, can begin any time and anywhere, since the system is composed of chaotic dynamics from now on. If we study the cases of Cambodia, Rwanda,Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and the Soviet Union, we see that in these last few years, local societies have partially collapsed, provoking famines, secession, civil war, economic ruin, and sometimes even ethnic cleansing and genocide.
The epic of human history can ultimately be viewed through a prism of eco-analysis, which shows that energy sources determine the structure of human economies, political systems, and cultures: the transition from a hunter-gatherer to an agricultural way of life occurs through the mastery of agricultural and livestock breeding; the accumulation of a surplus makes possible the growth of the population, technological developments (writing, tools, etc.), and a sophisticated system of specialized social classes.
When a civilization collapses, it is replaced by a simpler one—lighter, less densely populated, less complex, but more resilient.
The schema below, taken from the book Evolution’s Edge by the Canadian researcher Graeme Taylor, shows how a crisis can evolve:
There are two ways of getting out of such a systemic crisis.
Society can evolve downward. The system collapses; irreversible damage is done. Civilization then regresses toward a less complex system, which finds a new point of equilibrium similar to what we knew before the industrial era. Here the questions are: what amount of stress can our society bear before regressing, and will this regression occur suddenly and rapidly, or gradually? The process of disruption and regression can take the form of the following sequence of
events:
A phase of deflation (recession) followed by hyperinflation and the end of most paper money;
Rises in the price of raw materials;
International tensions, wars over resources;
Rupture of the global economy, breakdown of long logistical chains;
Mass unemployment;
Collapse of the electrical grid;
Collapse of water distribution;
Collapse of evacuation systems and water filtering;
Collapse of law enforcement;
Fires, panics, looting, and violence;
Total loss of control by the government;
General chaos, ethnic cleansing, famine;
Serious sanitation crisis, sicknesses, epidemics;
City dwellers fleeing to the countryside;
Collapse of the hospital system and medical care;
Steep drop in population;
Return to order by exhaustion and the grouping of individuals around small organized nuclei;
Return to an economy based on local agricultural production;
Reconstruction of society based on a simpler and more local model.
Society could also evolve upwards, developing new ways of functioning on a global scale by changing its culture and its manner of functioning.
These are the mechanisms of collapse.
We have a choice to make between these types of society, and there is not much time left.
*
David is doing well.
He made a fortune and racked up job titles: mayor of his village, president of the regional council, national deputy and European deputy, not to mention positions on the Board of Directors of several large private and public firms. He succeeds in earning more than 200,000 euros per month—not bad for a socialist! But something is bothering him. His usual message about feminism, homosexual marriage, the regularization of undocumented workers, anti-racism, etc., no longer seem to work on his electorate. It seems to be because of the crisis. But what crisis? All indicators and all the experts have pointed to a recovery! And the airplanes David takes are full, just like the luxury hotels where he lands in Strasbourg, Brussels, or Washington. In his view, if people start voting for the rising “populist” party—due to his experience acquired in 1968 and his membership in various Trotskyist movements, he knows that the party is truly part of “the extreme Right”—it’s because the ethnic composition has changed. All these Africans, Arabs, people from all over the world, have driven his old constituents out of the neighborhood to live in the center of town (at least those who have the money).
David pays a visit to the President of the Republic. Though he’s from another party, he’s an old companion of David from the Lodge. He should be able to offer advice.
“...my dear David,” says President Dominique Wolinsky, “you are coming face to face with a real problem. If you play the ‘Clash of Civilizations’ card with anti-Muslim and anti-immigration talk, you will have the “politically correct” crowd on your back accusing you of flirting with the extreme Right, not to mention the construction industry starting with the Murdokk Group. And since they control the big TV channels, Murdokk will make you pay. Then there are the restaurants and the rest of the service industries, which need black-market workers to stay competitive. If you are conciliatory, like a good leftist, you are going to get beaten by the far Right. You know I have this problem at the national level as well. Washington has warned me: if I want the UN job and my consulting gigs after my second term as President, I’d better get re-elected. They aren’t playing “Mr. Nice Guy” anymore in DC or Brussels: the old days of full employment for life are over. More austerity, more austerity ... Despite my self respect, I’ll have to cave in.”
“But then we’re finished; we won’t be re-elected!”
“No, don’t worry! Our American friends have figured out a solution. You know, in 2000, when Bush Jr. was elected, well, nominated anyway... Or think about when the French people stupidly rejected the European constitution in 2005—even though it was what was best for them! We can’t let elections affect our ability to govern.”
“But...how can you get rid of democracy? *Influence* people, yes, but...”
“Don’t get so self-righteous! The important thing is that we understand that these crises are *opportunities* to strengthen the government and get done what needs to be done. We need to start presenting things, not as proposals, but as *faits accompli*. No one will complain, nor even notice. (You should read the book *The Shock Doctrine* by Naomi Klein, quite a clever girl, and pretty, too...) Look, I received a whole package of laws that Brussels wants me to get passed during the coming summer holidays. If we can reduce pensions and unemployment insurance, we could cut the budget in half. . . It will be like a turkey-shoot. Your friends on the left have already accepted it, just like my conservative ones! And then . . . did you see the general intelligence reports? It’s no joke: it seems that Saudi Arabia has no more oil reserves. It’s no longer 200 billion barrels the towel-heads have got, but nothing, zero, *nada*!... You don’t look like you get it. Let’s be honest, without the Saudis pumping, things are going to get more . . . difficult. We’re already bogged down in Libya and Syria with NATO . . . and we’re going to have to intervene elsewhere. China doesn’t look pleased with this. You remember the news about that submarine, the USS Nebraska, that went down last year near Taiwan? Well, it wasn’t an accident. . . And these projects I get wind of—Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran... With our four fighter jets, we are going to look ridiculous! Again.
Oh, by the way, you should tell that ass Bertrand-Henry Lévy to shut his big mouth for once. Everybody knows the Russians aren’t exactly behaving nicely in the Caucasus, but calling for humanitarian air strikes against Russian bases in the region! I swear, it’s simply too obvious who butters his bread. Well, I’ll let you go now; I’ve got two young things my wife arranged to come over for us this evening ... so, good luck, David.”
David gets in his car to return home. Suddenly, his chauffeur slams on the brakes. A cobblestone smashes against the passenger-side window. It shatters. An accident? No. A demonstration. And it’s getting nasty! “Trash the Elites!” he hears The car is stuck behind a burning police cruiser. A bit stunned, David realizes that his chauffeur has fled. David is afraid, for the first time in many years. He gets out, but trips and falls; his obesity doesn’t help. “Wh...where’s the police?” he asks to himself, picking up his glasses. Someone shoves up against him: “Look, it’s that pig David Droy! Yes, it’s him. It’s *him*! The deputy with the Swiss watch collection! Yo, hand over the Rolex, you bastard! Hey, brothas, let’s do him!”
David’s last coherent thought was that he had urinated on himself.
On account of the murder of David Droy ... eviscerated, emasculated, and charred, all rolled-up inside a bus tire ... President Wolinsky enacted European emergency laws forbidding any potentially violent demonstration.
Consequences
<
nigel farage
politician
_speech before the european parliament
/2010/
<
dmitri orlov
engineer & writer
/2008/
<
naomi klein
writer
/2007/
All our lives, we have been told that our economic, political, and moral system was the best in the history of humanity. We live with the belief that contemporary ideas are the most evolved that have ever existed. We burst with self-satisfaction at the noti
ons of the “rights of man,” “humanitarian intervention,” “minority rights,” “freedom and democracy,” without ever having doubts or questions about the basic soundness of these beliefs or their workability. What if this self-assurance is only a luxury, permitted by the massive use of cheap fossil energy?
In reality, we live in an increasingly dangerous world. We don’t always see this, for in the West, we still benefit from a varnish of comfort brought to us by a complex and effective infrastructure. Now, while this infrastructure is resilient in the case of local or minor events, it is extremely fragile at the global level—particularly once a point of no return has been passed. This point will be reached, in my opinion, by the convergence of catastrophes I discussed in previous chapters, the consequences of which we shall now study.
The Financial and Economic Crisis
The financial crisis of 2008 was announced to us by the media as one cyclical movement of the market among many others. According to modern economic orthodoxy, a recovery always follows a crisis, however serious. But when you look more closely at the real state of finance and the economy, you see that it is untenable.
The debt levels of Western countries, chief among them the United States, is significant. In this context, the continued and expanded issuance of fiat currency is going to create considerable inflation. The prices of imported goods—raw materials, natural gas and oil especially—are going to rise, making transportation and commerce in general more difficult. Companies are going to go out of business. Unemployment could reach 50 percent of the active population. Total consumer purchasing power is going to sink steeply. Governments are probably going to have to choose between austerity measures—which will be unpopular and will slow down the economy further—and a headlong rush by accumulating more debt.
Very quickly, the United States, via its intermediaries in Europe and its influence on credit ratings, is going to put pressure on the Eurozone to make sure European countries are the first to get into trouble, although their situation is not, in fact, worse than America’s. A number of European countries are going to be put in trusteeship, with severe austerity programs. Some will go bankrupt and be forced to return to their old national currency. Sooner or later, the United States will no longer be capable of continuing its policies, and will be forced to admit that its debt can never be paid off. The consequence may be a unilateral default, with the nationalization of banks and strategic industries, and the creation of a new dollar backed by some sort of benchmark (such as a precious metal); or it may be hyperinflation, with the euro and the dollar meeting their ends by no longer being accepted in payment. In any case, it will have a great effect on the real economy, and Europeans’ and Americans’ standard of living will sink rapidly and deeply.
Survive- The Economic Collapse Page 14