As the West retreated inwards, the Global South’s precarious stability collapsed. Civil wars erupted in Mexico, Ethiopia, Mali, Senegal, and Kenya. In Asia, the conflict between India and Pakistan crippled regional growth. Pakistan was further roiled by a low-intensity conflict within its own borders following the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan. China and the United States did what they could to prop up the Pakistani government and secure the nation’s nuclear arsenal.
Historians called the decline of Western economies the “Great Destruction.” GDP regressed in Europe and the United States by an average of 20 percent, reaching as much as 50 percent in some regions. Thanks to domestic markets, China was able to limit its decline and even maintain weak growth in some areas, but its dream of swift development was shattered.
The West paid heavily for its refusal to invest in renewable energy and infrastructure. World agricultural production collapsed because of rising fertilizer prices, and widespread starvation occurred throughout Africa and the Middle East. In Egypt, outright famine led to a bloody civil conflict.
Fleeing the devastation of the Third World, refugees stormed the borders of Europe, where newly elected populists did their best to keep them out. Ethno-nationalism returned, as countries shut their borders and turned on foreigners. Europe was “united” only through mutual suspicion and hatred. On the Israeli frontier, the “most moral army in the world” wasted no time in gunning down what the government called “illegal infiltrators.” In the United States, food riots in cities such as Detroit, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC, led to outright counterinsurgency efforts by the military. In certain regions, the military cut off and bombed the so-called “lost areas” as if they were part of a foreign country. Rising violence and cultural clashes led to an increase in terrorism, religious fanaticism, and even new forms of narcotics, as people everywhere tried to escape experiencing the end of what they took for granted.
In the next few years, the United States invaded Canada to secure oil resources (using some “national security” or moral pretext than few can remember). The American military, already used to suppressing its own population, felt no compunction in dealing harshly with foreigners. Nationalists, non-White immigrants, and xenophiles fought in the streets of Europe, as Britain and France plunged into a bloody civil war. Spain, Italy, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Poland, and Greece elected ultra-authoritarian regimes that carried out deliberate campaigns of extermination against their African and Middle Eastern populations. The figures could never be verified, but people spoke of tens of millions dead.
Russia actually emerged from the global chaos in a strengthened position as it fought and won a brief war with Ukraine over control of the Donbas mining region. Thanks to its relatively sparse population, its strong agricultural capacity, and its resources in gas and hydrocarbons, Russia gradually expanded its sphere of influence over Eastern Europe and the Nordic countries.
With no one to restrain them, India and Pakistan finally waged a war over control of agricultural resources. The question of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal was resolved with the destruction of Delhi, Jaipur, and Bombay. However, India eventually prevailed and exacted terrible vengeance by deliberately reducing the Muslim population in the Indus Delta. Over two hundred thousand died so India could exploit the new land.
China’s authoritarian social system was able to maintain order in its territory. Once again, the Middle Kingdom drew in on itself. The Communist state deliberately reduced its own population, while ensuring no serious challenges emerged to government authority.
While globalization was set back, communication networks were maintained by falling back on older technologies, like long-wave radio or satellite communication. “Globalization” became a meaningful concept only to the rich who could afford to pay for such equipment.
Towards the end of the century, a number of nation-states collapsed into smaller independent regions better able to function. These included Australia, Indonesia, India, Canada, the United States, France, Spain, the UK, and Mexico. The African nations descended into complete anarchy. Countries like China, Brazil, Argentina and Russia came close to disintegration, but were able to maintain their territorial integrity. Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, the Boer Republic, Botswana, Namibia, and even New Zealand were able to ride out the storm thanks to their isolation and self-sufficiency in food and energy.
The new global economy saw the return of the “city-state” as a viable political structure. City-states formed an oasis of comfort, security, and technology in the midst of violence and chaos. In regions that possessed oil, refineries, industrial capacity, and an adequate agricultural base, they became quite powerful. Among the most prominent were the Republic of Libreville in the former Gabon, the independent town of Dammam in Arabia, the Houston-Austin conglomeration in Texas, the Sultanate of Brunei, the town of Mosul in Kurdistan, Bahrain, and others.
After a century of instability, a chastened humanity lived in a world with less technology, less energy, and less stability. Wars over resources eventually petered out, due to exhaustion rather than moral sentiment. Nuclear weapons became inoperative simply because the infrastructure could no longer be financed. The global population eventually settled at about two billion people. Weary and scared, they dedicated most of their energy to survival.
5. The Oil Shock
A Supply Crisis Puts Civilization
on a New Course
People once referred to the “third oil shock” of late 2007 and early 2008 when the market price of crude reached record-setting levels. Today, one hundred dollars a barrel seems quaint, if not impossibly cheap.
Following the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, the new King Aziz launched a reform program in the Kingdom. More importantly, he announced that Saudi Arabian oil reserves had been overestimated by a factor of 10. There were not 200 billion barrels left to be extracted, but only 20. The result was instantaneous. The price of oil shot upward, doubling in six months—then doubling again in three. This market event led to a devastating rise in transportation costs and prices for consumer goods. The Global South suffered the most, with the populations of several nations either revolting or emigrating en masse to the West.
China and the West were forced into an Energy Cold War, as each side waged proxy wars and financed revolutions to destabilize suppliers and ensure drilling contracts. Neither side won any meaningful victories, and the struggle only worsened the supply deficit.
The economic crisis that followed was long and had profound consequences—some of which were quite positive. In America and Europe, activists revived an old slogan, “We don’t have oil, but we have ideas!” Renewable energy became an economic necessity, rather than an ideological axe to grind. As a result, both China and the West pursued alternative forms of economic organization and energy supplies. The global population eventually stabilized at around five billion people. After a lengthy slowdown, the world economy began to recover—and this time, it was on a sustainable course.
Although the price paid was high, the world’s energy future was more secure since civilization was less dependent on fossil fuels. And it all occurred due to the momentary bout of honesty of a Saudi king.
6. Ecofascism
The Rise of the Deep Greens
The Great Global Depression was characterized by an ecological catastrophe and economic regression. In response, right-wing nationalists (derided as “fascists”) and left-wing environmentalists (mocked as “hippies”) both challenged the political establishment in Europe. Though the two groups hated each other, they had much in common. Both featured charismatic, blunt, and brash leaders who had contempt for mainstream political discourse. And both were characterized by an impatience with parliamentary procedure and an eagerness to find authoritarian solutions to everyday problems.
The trend was slower to develop in the United States, but eventually even the Tea Party dropped libertarianism and grew statist “green leaves.” In
some nations of Europe, Green Parties became a dominant political force with the rise of “Deep Green” coalitions in France, the UK, Germany, Italy, and most of the Nordic countries.
Green governments gradually abandoned nuclear reactors and turned to renewable energy—especially solar and wind power. Once looked at with suspicion, these efforts met with success and proved effective as job creators. Before long, Asian nations and even North and Latin America were aping the Greens’ energy policies.
Because renewable energy limited vulnerability to oil-price shocks, the financial and debt crises were minimized. Broad segments of the population were employed in great public works, limiting unemployment. Governments also used environmentalism as a justification to impose taxes and regulations to limit greenhouse emissions, pollution, and the overuse of soil, water, and fertilizers.
In contrast to other governments of the past, the Deep Green leaders were more concerned with protecting national resources than pursuing economic growth for its own sake. They showed a willingness to reduce welfare payments and coupled this with commitments to border security and even forced repatriation. The latter allowed them to co-opt some of the support from the “disreputable” nationalists. Large majorities endorsed these policies and returned most of the parties to office with mandates for even more decisive action.
Eventually, Deep Green parties arrived at the conclusion that individualism itself was the problem. Governments must have the freedom of action to face the issues of the day. Democracy was too haphazard and messy. Again, the public seemed to agree.
Eugenic theories, which had been suppressed as a wicked “pseudo-science” since the end of the Second World War, re-emerged. It became common sense to think that a reduction of the world’s population was necessary, and that the most efficient way to accomplish this was to limit births. A permit was required to have a child. A point system was implemented to give priority to the gifted. According to the “Mink Amendment” of the U.S. Constitution, national policy was designed “to avoid having that great mass of dull, obese, and useless people reproduce themselves.” European legislation was similarly blunt.
Deep Greens showed a willingness to use tactics that a prior generation would have called ruthless. In order to limit demand on the welfare system, the mentally handicapped and those with Down syndrome were systematically tracked down and euthanized. Seniors over the age of 60 were barred from the public health system. The euthanasia of the severely ill was made free and immediate, unless specifically forbidden by the family. It was, however, the epidemics that had the greatest impact in limiting populations. These came out of nowhere, disproportionately affecting the poor, who could not afford the vaccines.
Gradually, and despite the ephemeral resistance of (mostly religious) groups hostile to this new world order, the human population fell to two billion. Educated opinion concurred that this was an appropriate figure for sustainable and permanent human existence.
Practical science and human consciousness had undergone a revolution. Instead of trying to master nature, men of the new century understood that they should try to live in balance with Mother Earth. Though some still object to the eugenic measures that have reduced the population, few have qualms with the positive consequences. Even critics admit that much good has come out of some evil.
7. The Great War
World War III Finally Comes
The United States of America suffered a crisis of confidence in all its institutions. The government responded with repression, even to the point of no longer measuring unemployment, lest bad figures hurt public morale. As few trusted the banks, the stock markets, the news, and the government, investor confidence collapsed. The European economies also suffered, and the global supply chain, based on Asian manufacturing and American consumption, was disrupted.
Barack Obama disappeared from the political scene even more rapidly than he had appeared a dozen years before. He was replaced by a populist, right-leaning administration. Many wondered if they had been properly voted into office; no one could deny that they possessed vocal supporters.
The new regime attempted to solve the economic crisis in one stroke by repudiating American debt with the claim that “foreign interests” had imposed it on the American people. A new, gold-backed dollar was issued. The administration also announced that the country possessed huge, hidden gold reserves sufficient to back the new currency. However, no one was allowed to confirm this assertion independently, and the international press was suspicious.
The government’s second step in confronting economic recession targeted unemployment. The President re-instituted conscription and raised the number of active-duty personnel in the military and the newly created “Homeland Security Force” to over 10 million men and women. The unemployed of all ages, eager for guaranteed food and shelter—and a smart-looking uniform—volunteered assiduously.
The new President attempted to win support for his controversial regime by waving the flag and baiting China. “Chinese manipulation” was a staple of American political rhetoric, and international summits were marked by confrontational theatrics. The regime complemented this with a massive armaments build-up. Washington doubled its defense budget within four years. The media were put on notice with “The New Patriotic Act,” lest they “publish poisonous material that weakens the American people’s resolve.”
Most of these policies failed. The economy remained sluggish, outside the defense sector. The new dollar was never fully accepted at home or abroad, and alternative currencies became prominent. The right-leaning regime also antagonized African-Americans and Latinos by stripping them of their government privileges. Many Whites felt emboldened to engage in causal racism.
Still, the international situation remained stable . . . until Israel launched an attack against what they called “terrorist” bases in the occupied territories. The conflict escalated to the point that Israel reoccupied the Sinai region and bombed Cairo and Damascus as warnings to the enemies of the Jewish state. Iran responded with missile attacks; though there were not many Israeli casualties, the Israelis felt that a critical line had been crossed. A long-planned campaign against Iran was launched by the United States and Israel, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Though there were timid protests by Europe, China, and Russia, most of the world felt they had to accept this startling use of force.
But while the American international position was strong, its domestic situation was crumbling. The new “blueback” currency continued to decline in legitimacy as rumors spread that the government did not have enough gold holdings to back it.
The United States and the rest of the world might have still recovered from this instability. It was “some damn thing” in Asia, however, that instigated World War III. Pakistan, still allied with China but under the de facto control of an Islamist coalition, launched a surprise nuclear attack against India. The Indian response was equally devastating. Over 100 million people died on both sides in less than a week.
The American government, desperate to secure domestic support, used the pretext of the Chinese-Pakistani alliance to impose a unilateral blockade against the two nations. Washington also used a combination of diplomatic pressure and military threats to force other nations to repudiate their oil-export contracts with China. The Chinese viewed this economic aggression as an act of war, but undertook no military action.
Ultimately, it was a naval conflict that sparked the greatest conflagration in world history. The Chinese navy began escorting oil tankers from the Persian Gulf, leading to battle with American ships enforcing a blockade of certain Middle Eastern ports. Under ambiguous circumstances, the 7th American Pacific fleet clashed with a Chinese escort force. When Chinese airplanes responded, American bombers based in Guam and Japan bombed military airbases in China. Abandoning restraint, the Chinese mobilized the entirety of its armed forces. The North Koreans prepared their military for attack as well.
The President of the United States, fearful of
a conventional struggle with the enormous Chinese military and its allies, acted decisively. In a speech to the nation, he announced that the United States was forced to defend itself against a critical national threat. During the address, the U.S. launched the initial full-scale nuclear strike against the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Within a few moments, more than 500 million Chinese were killed by over 400 American nuclear warheads. The Chinese responded with an attack of about 50 warheads, as well as conventional strikes against American bases in Japan and the Pacific. The North Koreans launched a suicidal assault on the South. They were stopped, but not before Seoul was completely destroyed.
The conflict devastated Asia and North America and plunged the entire world into chaos. More than 200 million North Americans and a billion Asians would die from various causes as a result of the war. Casualties also included many Canadians, who died from radiation and accidental attacks.
The economic, ecological, and psychological effects set the global economy back by decades. The electromagnetic pulses of nuclear weapons led to the failure of most computers, electrical networks, and information systems. The resulting collapse of transportation networks for food and medical supplies led to millions of casualties around the world, even in nations that had nothing to do with the conflict. Instead of conquering new frontiers of space, science, and technology, the people of Earth had to painfully rebuild what World War III had destroyed in just a few moments.
8. The Anti-Civilization
And The Return of the Tribes
Rather than a retreat into the nation-state, the economic crisis resulted in even larger governmental units. NAFTA in North America provided the basis for the eventual North American Union that absorbed Canada, the United States, and Mexico. In Latin America, the trade union Mercosur gradually became the South American equivalent of the EU, mostly under the leadership of the regional superpower, Brazil. The EU itself, far from collapsing, actually expanded, eventually including the countries on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. Turkey became a base for the European Union to gradually seek control over the entire Middle East and Southern Caucasus.
Survive- The Economic Collapse Page 19