In America, lawmakers had found the scapegoat they needed with Nuri al-Maliki—if the surge failed, they reasoned, it was because Maliki and the Iraqi politicians weren't stepping up to the plate. America, having given its best shot, could head home with a clean conscience. But beneath the rhetoric they knew it was not so simple. Even as Democrats assailed Bush's war as a fiasco launched by misleading the public, the situation had changed. At least one of the false reasons for invading Iraq—the connection to al-Qaida operatives—was now true, as the country had become the haven for extremists that it never was under Saddam.
A quick withdrawal would almost certainly see complete degeneration of the Iraqi government into sectarian war, with the region inevitably pulled in. The Iranians would arm the Shi'ites; the Gulf Arabs would arm the Sunnis. All of Kurdistan's enemies would have a free hand to wreak havoc in the north, and perhaps stir up tension between the Kurdish leaders. General Petraeus invoked the genocide in Sudan as a warning of what would happen if the United States left: "If you didn't like Darfur, you're going to hate Baghdad."5 If such a war began, the pesh merga could surely hold their own against the other Iraqis, defend their territory and probably expand it. But that was only within Iraq, where none of the factions had significant amounts of artillery, and the war would be fought by men with small arms. The neighboring countries had fighter jets, bombers, helicopter gunships, and missiles. Without the presence of the United States, the Kurds feared that Iran and Turkey might make sure the dream of Kurdistan never thrived.
If America couldn't prevent a civil war, the question was whether to try to stay as a referee. The scenario for trying to break up the fight came back to the three-state solution, or "soft partition." Some Americans, including Democratic presidential candidate Joseph Biden, concluded that Iraq was never meant to be one country, and a loose confederation of Sunni, Shi'ite, and Kurdish areas already allowed for in the constitution was the only path to peace. With so many mixed and contested areas, separating Iraq into three would be a bloody business, but perhaps less bloody than keeping it together. The problem for Washington was that both options would look like a failure, and history would never reveal what course had saved lives. In fact the population transfers had already begun, as hundreds of thousands of Iraqis displaced themselves from contested areas.
For the Kurds, the soft partition looked like a perfect path to independence. They could continue to develop separately from the Arabs and would be protected if the Shi'ites and Sunnis splintered and made war. They might even be able to convince America to use Kurdistan as its staging ground in Iraq and to finally build the permanent military base the Kurds had been begging for. If the chaos in the south lasted long enough, Turkey or Syria might see their way clear to exporting some of the Kurdish oil. If reunification ever threatened, the Kurds would be so far ahead that they would be able to dictate their terms to Baghdad. The key was to keep American patronage, and to do that, they would need to stay a tiny bit invisible. The Kurds could have a country in everything but name, and that way none of the neighbors could accuse them of trying to redraw the map.
AS WITH ALL his trips from Baghdad, Talabani had started this journey home to Sulimaniya for the end of Ramadan 2006 by ordering his pesh merga to shut down a mile of road through the busy Karada neighborhood between him and the Green Zone. Talabani's entourage then sped down the gauntlet to the Fourteenth of July Bridge, where three rings of American soldiers waved them through to the suspension bridge over the Tigris. Once inside the Green Zone, Talabani's crew waited at a helipad to make the jump out to Baghdad International Airport in U.S. helicopters. After half an hour on the tarmac, and watching all their luggage being strapped to pallets, the presidential posse boarded a U.S. Air Force C-130. Though they had done it many times, the American airmen never looked quite at ease loading up Talabani's dozen Kalashnikov-toting bodyguards. Inside, Talabani squished into the web seats lining the plane just like his men—his one luxury a pair of noise-canceling headphones.
The mountain air of Sulimaniya soothed the nerves of every Kurd on the plane. As the propellers grunted to a halt, bulletproof vests were stowed and rifles left to hang loosely at the shoulder. All of Talabani's old friends and rivals came to meet him at the airport, some of them now moving a bit slowly with the years. Every homecoming to Kurdistan was joyful, but the Kurds still weren't over the thrill of landing in an American warplane in a Kurdish international airport, and they all grinned irrepressibly. This much they could defend: for the first time in a century, perhaps, they had a homeland and it was safe.
A small dispute broke out as the convoy saddled up to drive back to Talabani's house—the president, it seemed, was refusing to enter his armored Lexus. He had just lit one of his long Davidoffs and wanted to ride in a car where he could roll down the windows for the smoke. One of his titanic South African security guards, hired by the U.S. State Department, went over to plead with him. A head taller than Mam Jalal, the guard begged him to ride in the bulletproof car.
Talabani put the cigar in his other hand and reached up to pinch the soldier's cheek.
"Relax, my boy," he said. "You're in my country now. You're in Kurdistan."
* In January 2004 I tracked Samarra'i down in his hometown of Samara, which had not yet become a red zone of the insurgency. He was working out of a ground-floor office in the middle of town, trying to get a political party going as if he were running for mayor of a small Midwestern town. Samarra'i had been in charge of Saddam's military intelligence during the years of the Anfal campaign, and it seems impossible that he wasn't complicit in the gas attacks ordered against the Kurds (not to mention against Iran). I asked Samarra'i what he thought about the possibility of a war crimes tribunal. He misunderstood me—deliberately, I think—and answered that he wasn't interested in helping with the formation of the tribunal. When I asked him more emphatically whether he was afraid of being dragged in front of a tribunal in handcuffs, he acted shocked and said he had never participated in any war crimes.
* Bapir had disappeared from the scene most literally—in the summer of 2003 he had gone to meet some American officials and found himself suddenly arrested and sent to Baghdad. There, to his surprise and horror, he shared a prison compound with the former cabinet of Saddam Hussein: Tariq Aziz, Ali Hassan al-Majid, Barzani al-Tikriti—everyone but Saddam. Bapir said that the men still lived in a dream world, calling each other "minister" and "vice president" as if they would someday return to power. According to Bapir, the men warmed to him and let him lead them in prayer; they promised that when they returned to office, they would make him important. The Americans let Bapir go, without charge, in April 2005, after twenty-two months in prison.
Key Events in Iraqi
Kurdish History
1918 With the end of the Ottoman Empire and World War I, British forces hold the oil-rich Ottoman province of Mosul, heavily populated by Kurds.
1919 The new Iraqi state expands to include Mosul province, which comes under a British mandate.
May: "Sheikh Mahmoud" Barzinji rebels against the British and declares himself the king of Kurdistan, laying claim to all of Kurdish northern Iraq. The British put down his rebellion by June and exile the sheikh to India.
1920 The Treaty of Sevres, signed by the defeated Ottoman government, includes a provision for a referendum on Kurdish independence, subject to approval by the League of Nations. Article 64 of the treaty gives Kurds living in Mosul province the option of joining a future Kurdish state.
1921 Emir Faisal, son of Hussein bin Ali, sharif of Mecca, is crowned king of Iraq.
1922 The British try to control continuing unrest in Kurdistan by bringing Sheikh Mahmoud back. Within months he declares himself king again, and fights the British a second time.
1923 Kemal Atatürk wins international recognition for the newly founded Turkish Republic with the Treaty of Lausanne. The Treaty of Sevres and its provision for Kurdish independence is abandoned by the international community.
> 1924 British forces retake Sulimaniya, ending Sheikh Mahmoud Bar-zinji's second rebellion.
1932 Sheikh Ahmed Barzani leads an uprising based in his home village, Barzan, in favor of Kurdish autonomy. Iraq becomes officially independent of British mandate on October 3.
1943 Mulla Mustafa Barzani leads a new uprising and captures parts of Erbil and Badinan.
1946 Iraqi Kurdish rebels cross into Iran, where they join Iranian Kurds led by Qazi Muhamad. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) holds its first congress in Mahabad with Soviet support and announces an independent Kurdish "Mahabad Republic" with "General" Mulla Mustafa Barzani in command of its armed forces.
1947 The Mahabad Republic collapses under attack from Iranian forces, and Barzani flees to the Soviet Union.
1951 The KDP holds its second congress, led by Ibrahim Ahmad and a left-leaning younger generation, though Mullah Mustafa Barzani remains president in absentia.
1958 On July 14, Brigadier Abd-al-Karim Qassim and Colonel Abd-al-Salam Muhammad Arif stage a military coup pushing out Iraq's monarchy. Qassim becomes prime minister. The Kurdish nationalist movement comes out in the open and Mullah Mustafa Barzani returns from exile.
1961 Barzani agitates for Kurdish rebellion again in the north. Baghdad splits off support from many Kurdish tribes.
1963 In Feburary Qassim is overthrown by a Ba'athist Nasserite coup. In November the Ba'athists are pushed out by Arif and a group of officers. 1968 The Ba'athists return to power in a coup that puts General Ahmad Hasan al-Bakr in the presidency. Saddam Hussein, officially vice president, gradually becomes the power behind the government.
1970 The Iraqi government and Kurdish parties agree to a peace accord, which grants the Kurds autonomy on March 11. The Iraqi constitution is amended to affirm that Kurds are Iraq's second nationality. Cultural and language rights are recognized, but the status of Kirkuk is unresolved.
1971 In September the peace deal sours and Mulla Mustafa Barzani appeals to the United States for aid funneled through U.S. allies Iran and Israel. Barzani survives several assassination attempts (including the "exploding imams").
1972 Iraq aligns with the Soviet Union and nationalizes its oil industry.
1974 Mulla Mustafa Barzani rejects the autonomy offer from Baghdad on March 11 and rebellion begins in earnest.
In Turkey Abdullah Öcalan ("Apo") founds the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) and begins an insurgency to create an independent Kurdish state in southeastern Turkey.
1975 The March 11 Algiers Accord between Iran and Iraq ends Iranian support for the Kurdish uprising, which instantly collapses. Barzani flees to Iran and then to America for medical treatment. Mam Jalal Talabani, a former leading member of the KDP, announces the establishment of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) from Damascus.
1978 Clashes between the KDP and PUK.
1979 In Iran The shah is overthrown in February and eventually replaced by a Shi'ite Islamic government led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
March: Mulla Mustafa Barzani dies of cancer outside Washington, D.C., and his son Masoud Barzani takes over the leadership of the KDP.
July: Saddam Hussein formalizes his near absolute power in Baghdad.
1980 The Iran-Iraq war begins in September. The KDP aids Iran along Iraqi northern border; the PUK negotiates with Baghdad. Shi'ite leader Ayatolla Mohammad Bakr al-Sadr (uncle to Moqtada al-Sadr) is executed by the regime.
1983 Iranian troops cross into northern Iraq and take the town of Haj Omran in cooperation with Masoud Barzani's KDP. In revenge, Saddam Hussein executes eight thousand men from the region of Barzan. The PUK begins a cease-fire with Baghdad and negotiates about autonomy.
1984 In Turkey Abdullah Qcalan's PKK starts major guerrilla operations in the southeast, which leave as many as 35,000 people dead and 1.5 million displaced over the next fifteen years, most of them Kurdish civilians.
1985 Turkey helps to quash negotiations between Baghdad and the PUK. The talks permanently break after jahsh militiamen kill Jalal Talabani's half brother and two nieces.
1986 The KDP and PUK unify against Baghdad with Iranian support, forming the Kurdistan Front.
1988 Saddam Hussein's cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid is put in charge of the north and begins the "Anfal" campaign against the Kurds. Systematic killings begin, with Kurdish civilians herded into camps as their villages are razed. Called "Ali Chemical," Majid uses cocktails of poison gas against combatants and civilians. At least fifty thousand, but perhaps as many as a hundred thousand, people are killed.
March 16: Iraq gasses the town of Halabja, killing as many as five thousand Kurdish civilians.
July: Iran accepts a U.N. cease-fire, ending the war, but the Anfal campaign continues with gassing and executions through August.
1990 August 2: Iraq invades Kuwait.
1991 January 15: The United States leads an international coalition against Iraq.
February 27: The Iraqi army is routed and has withdrawn from Kuwait.
March: The Americans accept Iraq's surrender on March 3. By March 5, Kurds and Shi'ites rise up against the regime, believing they have U.S. support. America does not help the rebellion, and Baghdad brutally suppresses it, killing tens of thousands. In April around 1.5 million Kurds begin to flee across the mountains to Turkey and Iran. Turkey closes the border.
April 6: A U.S.-led coalition creates a tiny safe haven inside northwestern Iraq, the world's first U.N.-approved humanitarian intervention against the will of a sovereign state.
August: U.S., British, and French jets begin patrolling a no-fly zone in northern Iraq.
October: The Kurdistan Front has moved into the provinces of Duhok, Erbil, and Sulimaniya. Saddam withdraws from the Kurdish provinces and begins a blockade against them. The Iraqi government continues a policy of Arabization in the area around Kirkuk, evicting thousands of Kurdish families, most of whom flee to the northern safe zone.
1992 Elections in the Kurdish area split the government equally between Barzani's KDP and Talabani's PUK.
1994 Tension between the KDP and PUK becomes a low-intensity civil war In July the KDP and PUK sign a peace agreement, which disintegrates by December.
1995 Ahmed Chalabi's INC, operating in Kurdistan, launches a coup attempt with the PUK and elements of the Iraqi army. A small CIA team on the ground supports the plot without Washington's full awareness. The coup fails.
1996 June: Another plotted coup attempt, this one based in Jordan with full CIA backing and the collaboration of Ayad Allawi's INA and Barzani's KDP, is foiled by Saddam.
July: Talabani allows Iran to enter his territory to attack Iranian Kurds based there.
August: With the PUK threatening to defeat the KDP, Masoud Barzani allows the Iraqi army to enter Kurdistan and pushes the PUK out of Erbil.
1997 The U.N.'s Oil-for-Food program begins to deliver humanitarian goods in exchange for Iraqi oil (approved in 1995 but delayed in negotiations with Baghdad). Kurdistan is supposed to get 13 percent of the proceeds from the program.
1998 Talabani and Barzani sign the Washington Agreement in September, providing a cold peace with the KDP, based in Erbil, controlling the northwest of Kurdistan, and the PUK, based in Sulimaniya, controlling the southeast.
1999 In Turkey On February 16, PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan is imprisoned after his capture in Kenya (with American assistance). The PKK ends offensive operations.
February 19: Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, spiritual leader of the Shi'ite community (and father of Moqtada al-Sadr), is assassinated in Najaf, presumably by government agents.
2001 September 3: The PUK delivers a report to the White House about Jund al-Islam (later Ansar al-Islam), an Islamist group operating in Kurdish territory with links to al-Qa'ida members in Afghanistan.
2002 March: Barzani and Talabani make a secret visit to "the Farm," the CIA's training facility in Virginia, where Director George Tenet tells them to prepare for an American intervention.
April: The PUK's B
arham Salih narrowly escapes an assassination attempt by Ansar al-Islam.
December: Hundreds of members of the Iraqi opposition, including the main Kurdish parties, meet in London.
2003 February: Kurds protest the possibility that Turkish troops could enter Iraq with the U.S. invasion.
February 5: U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell addresses the U.N. Security Council, making the case for military intervention in Iraq. His key link between Iraq and Osama bin Laden is the Ansar al-Islam group in Kurdistan.
February 8: Ansar al-Islam assassinates PUK leader Shawkat Haji Mushir.
March 1: The Turkish parliament rejects a bill allowing American troops to transit through Turkey and form a northern front against Iraq.
March 18: America's first bombs land on the Dora complex south of Baghdad in a failed attempt to kill Saddam Hussein, acting on intelligence gathered by the CIA in Kurdistan.
March 22: Coalition forces launch missiles against Kurdish Islamist groups including Ansar al-Islam in the north. Dozens are killed in the headquarters of the Komala Islami, separate radical Islamist faction, when a missile hits the Khurmal area.
March 26: Paratroopers from the 173rd Airborne land at airstrip near Erbil.
March 28: PUK fighters and U.S. Special Forces take control of all Ansar al-Islam territory, though many of the Islamists escape across the border to Iran.
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