“Is the Earth f*cked?” Eli Kintisch, “ ‘Is Earth F**ked?’ AGU Scientist Asks,” Science, December 2012, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2012/12/earth-fked-agu-scientist-asks.
“a weary group of top climatologists” “Sighing, Resigned Climate Scientists Say to Just Enjoy Next 20 Years as Much as You Can,” The Onion, February 23, 2018, https://www.theonion.com/sighing-resigned-climate-scientists-say-to-just-enjoy-1823265249.
“err on the side of least drama” Keynyn Brysse, Naomi Oreskes, Jessica O’Reilly, and Michael Oppenheimer, “Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?,” Global Environmental Change 23, no. 1 (2013): 327–337, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008.
studies have found Robert Kopp, Katharine Hayhoe, David Easterling, Timothy Hall, Radley Horton, Kenneth Kunkel, and Allegra LeGrande, “Potential Surprises—Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements, in Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, eds. Donald Wuebbles et al. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017), pp. 411–429, https://doi.org/10.7930/J0GB227J.
“the systematic tendency of climate models” Ibid.
pessimistic messages increase risk perception Brandi Morris, Polymeros Chrysochou, Simon Karg, and Panagiotis Mitkidis., “Optimistic vs. Pessimistic Endings in Climate Change Appeals,” Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 7 (2020): 82, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00574-z.
fear works well when coupled Tali Sharot, The Influential Mind: What the Brain Reveals About Our Power to Change Others (New York: Henry Holt and Co., 2017).
there is a substantial emotional cost Cass R. Sunstein, Too Much Information: Understanding What You Don’t Want to Know (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2020).
It was fear that motivated David Wallace-Wells, The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming (New York: Tim Duggan Books, 2019).
“I was reading The Uninhabitable Earth” Andy Revkin, “Thriving Online: Three Young Leaders Building Impact Networks for Sustainable Societies,” pscp.tv, 2020, https://www.pscp.tv/Revkin/1YpKkNQoLqNxj?t=24m18s.
Andreas talks about how he saw Andreas Karelas, Climate Courage: How Tackling Climate Change Can Build Community, Transform the Economy, and Bridge the Political Divide in America (Boston: Beacon Press, 2020).
there’s little evidence Saffron O’Neill and Sophie Nicholson-Cole, “Fear Won’t Do It: Promoting Positive Engagement with Climate Change Through Visual and Iconic Representations,” Science Communication 30, no. 3 (2009), https://doi.org/10.1177/1075547008329201.
fear-based messaging can trigger Rebecca Huntley, How to Talk About Climate Change in a Way That Makes a Difference (Sydney: Murdoch Books, 2020).
“We do not accept climate change” George Marshall, Don’t Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Ignore Climate Change (New York: Bloomsbury USA, 2015).
“The human brain is built to associate” Tali Sharot, The Influential Mind: What the Brain Reveals About Our Power to Change Others (New York: Henry Holt and Co., 2017).
“When the body releases stress chemicals” Katie Patrick, How to Save the World: How to Make Changing the World the Greatest Game We’ve Ever Played (San Francisco: Hello World Labs, 2020).
she talks about the grief Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac, The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2020).
CHAPTER 7
“No one can unilaterally” Leah Cardamore Stokes, “A Field Guide For Transformation,” in All We Can Save: Truth, Courage, and Solutions for the Climate Crisis (New York: One World/Random House, 2020).
As psychologist and marketing expert Robert Cialdini, Influence, New and Expanded: The Power of Persuasion (New York: Harper Business, 2021).
“flygskam,” or “flight shame” William Wilkes and Richard Weiss, “German Air Travel Slump Points to Spread of Flight Shame,” Bloomberg, December 18, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-19/german-air-travel-slump-points-to-spread-of-flight-shame.
when people were told to change Risa Palm, Toby Bolsen, and Justin Kingsland, “ ‘Don’t Tell Me What to Do’: Resistance to Climate Change Messages Suggesting Behaviour Changes,” Weather, Climate and Society 12, no. 4 (2020): 75–84, http://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0141.1.
average of 2 percent Hunt Allcott, “Social norms and energy conservation,” Journal of Public Economics 95, no. 9–10 (2011): 1082–1095, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.03.003.
over $1 billion in bills Robert Walton, “Opower hits 11 TWh in energy savings milestone,” Utility Dive, June 13, 2016, https://www.utilitydive.com/news/opower-hits-11-twh-in-energy-savings-milestone/420787/.
“households that were politically conservative” P. W. Schultz, J. Nolan, R. Cialdini, N. Goldstein, and V. Griskevicius, “The Constructive, Destructive, and Reconstructive Power of Social Norms: Reprise,” Perspectives on Psychological Science 13 (2018): 249–254, https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1467-9280.2007.01917.x.
If we think we’re being shamed Brandi Morris, Polymeros Chrysochou, Jacob Dalgaard Christensen, Jacob Orquin, Jorge Barraza, Paul Zak, and Panagiotis Mitkidis, “Stories vs. Facts: Triggering Emotion and Action-Taking on Climate Change,” Climatic Change 154 (2019): 19–36, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02425-6.
“Puritan ethos of disapproval” Rebecca Huntley, How to Talk About Climate Change in a Way That Makes a Difference (Sydney: Murdoch Books, 2020).
anticipating the pride of making a choice Claudia Schneider, Lisa Zaval, Elke Weber, and Ezra Markowitz, “The Influence of Anticipated Pride and Guilt on Pro-Environmental Decision Making,” PLOS One 12, no. 11 (2017): e0188781, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0188781.
“Most women describe themselves” https://potentialenergycoalition.org/.
“I don’t blame anyone” Mary Annaïse Heglar, “I Work in the Environmental Movement. I Don’t Care If You Recycle,” Vox, June 4, 2019, https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/5/28/18629833/climate-change-2019-green-new-deal.
this system also provides our safety Gabrielle Wong-Parodi and Irina Feygina, “Understanding and Countering the Motivated Roots of Climate Change Denial,” Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 42 (2020): 60–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2019.11.008.
“Fear is not a great predictor” As quoted in Rebecca Huntley, How to Talk About Climate Change in a Way That Makes a Difference (Sydney: Murdoch Books, 2020).
“consistent with upholding” Gabrielle Wong-Parodi and Irina Feygina, “Understanding and Countering the Motivated Roots of Climate Change Denial,” Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 42 (2020): 60–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2019.11.008.
If our brain is hardwired Tali Sharot, The Influential Mind: What the Brain Reveals About Our Power to Change Others (New York: Henry Holt and Co., 2017).
Hannah Malcolm is a theologian Hannah Malcolm, “Finding Words for the End of the World,” A Rocha Blog, 2019, https://blog.arocha.org/en/finding-words-for-the-end-of-the-world/.
SECTION 3: THE THREAT MULTIPLIER
CHAPTER 8
“We are navigating recklessly” Marcia Bjornerud, Timefulness: How Thinking Like a Geologist Can Help Save the World (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018).
Arctic sea ice is declining Florence Fetterer, Kenneth Knowles, Walter Meier, Matthew Savoie and Ann Windnagel, “Sea Ice Index, Version 3,” National Snow & Ice Data Center (2016), https://doi.org/10.7265/N5736NV7.
average thickness of the ice Julienne Stroeve, Andrew Barrett, Mark Serreze, and Axel Schweiger, “Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness,” The Cryosphere 8 (2014): 1839–1854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014.
impact of warming temperatures on pests David Lobell and Christopher Field, “Global Scale Climate–Crop Yield Relationships and the Impacts of Recent Warming,” Environmental Research Letters 2, no. 1 (2007), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1
748-9326/2/1/014002/meta.
Bob Nash dismissed them Texas Department of Public Safety Historical Museum and Research Center, Twister! (1970), https://texasarchive.org/2009_00879.
one of the strongest tornadoes Roger Edwards and Joe Shaefer, “Downtown Tornadoes,” Storm Prediction Center, NOAA/National Weather Service, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/downtown.html.
hold up a snowball Jeffrey Kluger, “Senator Throws Snowball! Climate Change Disproven!” TIME, February 27, 2015, https://time.com/3725994/inhofe-snowball-climate/.
Yale Program on Climate Communication Jennifer Marlon, Peter Howe, Matto Mildenberger, Anthony Leiserowitz, and Xinran Wang, Yale Climate Opinion Maps 2020, https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us/.
the effects of psychological distance Matthew Goldberg, Abel Gustafson, Seth Rosenthal, John Kotcher, Edward Maibach, and Anthony Leiserowitz, For the First Time, the Alarmed Are Now the Largest of Global Warming’s Six Americas (New Haven: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, 2020).
“When it comes to rare probabilities” Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013).
they see it as distant and less relevant Haoran (Chris) Chu and Janet Yang, “Taking Climate Change Here and Now—Mitigating Ideological Polarization with Psychological Distance,” Global Environmental Change 53 (2018): 174–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.09.013.
local sea level rise affects us Laurel Evans, Taciano L. Milfont, and Judy Lawrence, “Considering Local Adaptation Increases Willingness to Mitigate,” Global Environmental Change, 25 (2014): 69–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.013.
decline of civilizations Harvey Weiss and Raymond Bradley, “What Drives Societal Collapse?” Science 291, no. 5504 (2001): 609–610, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1058775.
over ten times faster NASA Global Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet, “Climate Change: How Do We Know?” https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/.
CHAPTER 9
“Ours is the first generation” Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics (White River Junction: Chelsea Green Publishing, 2017).
had a competition Jennifer Loesch, “Voters declare Lubbock Toughest Weather City,” Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, April 5, 2013, https://www.lubbockonline.com/article/20130405/NEWS/304059799.
124 of these events “NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2020),” https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/, doi: 10.25921/stkw-7w73.
four hundred all-time-high temperature records Nassos Stylianou and Clara Guibourg, “Hundreds of Temperature Records Broken Over Summer,” BBC News, October 9, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49753680.
already risen by Billy Sweet, Radley Horton, Robert Kopp, Allegra LeGrande, and Anastasia Romanou, “Sea level rise” in Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, eds. Donald Wuebbles, David Fahey, Kathy Hibbard, David Dokken, Brooke Stewart, and Thomas Maycock (Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018), http://doi.org/10.7930/J01834ND.
thirty percent faster NASA, “Rising Waters: How NASA is Monitoring Sea Level Rise,” (2020) https://www.nasa.gov/specials/sea-level-rise-2020/.
levees were built to protect it North Carolina State University, “Study Finds Flooding Damage to Levees Is Cumulative—and Often Invisible,” EurekAlert!, January 2020, https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-01/ncsu-sff012120.php.
underwater in 1999 Richard M. Mizelle, Jr., “Princeville and the Environmental Landscape of Race,” Open Rivers, spring 2016, https://editions.lib.umn.edu/openrivers/article/princeville-and-the-environmental-landscape-of-race/.
again in 2016 “Troubled Waters,” Landslide 2018, Grounds for Democ-racy, https://tclf.org/sites/default/files/microsites/landslide2018/princeville.html.
says resident Marvin Dancy “Princeville fears being wiped out third time,” WRAL, September 10, 2018, https://www.wral.com/princeville-fears-being-wiped-out-third-time/17833981/.
700 million live Barbara Neumann, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Juliane Zimmermann, and Robert J. Nicholls, “Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding—A Global Assessment,” PLOS One 10, no. 6 (2015): e0131375. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131375.
oil and gas pipelines on thawing permafrost Blake Sobczak, “Thawing Permafrost Jeopardizes Massive Maze of Russian Pipelines,” E&E News, January 30, 2013, https://www.eenews.net/stories/1059975505.
two hundred Native American villages in Alaska U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), Alaska Native Villages: Limited Progress Has Been Made on Relocating Villages Threatened by Flooding and Erosion, GAO-09-551 (2019), https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-551.
cost of replacing these with all-season roads Dan Levin, “Ice Roads Ease Isolation in Canada’s North, but They’re Melting Too Fast,” New York Times, April 19, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/world/canada/ice-roads-ease-isolation-in-canadas-north-but-theyre-melting-too-soon.html.
most of the world’s surface permafrost Michael Meredith, Martin Sommerkorn, Sandra Cassotta, Chris Derksen, Aleksey Ekaykin, Anne Hollowed, Gary Kofinas, et al., “Polar Regions,” in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate eds. Hans Otto Pörtner et al. (Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2019), https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/.
the mental or existential distress Glenn Albrecht, “Negating Solastalgia: An Emotional Revolution from the Anthropocene to the Symbiocene,” American Imago 77, no. 1 (2020): 9–30, https://doi.org/10.1353/aim.2020.0001.
“we are all Kiribati” Anote Tong and Matthieu Rytz, “Our Island Is Disappearing but the President Refuses to Act,” Washington Post, October 24, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/10/24/kiribati/.
CHAPTER 10
“Every bit of warming matters” “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers,” in Global Warming of 1.5°C., eds. Valerie Masson-Delmotte et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018).
summarized them in a study Svante A. Arrhenius, “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground,” Philosophical Magazine 41 (1896): 237.
over 420 ppm Earth System Research Laboratories Global Monitoring Laboratory, “Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases: Trends in CO2,” https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/.
Native American villagers in Alaska U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), Alaska Native Villages: Limited Progress Has Been Made on Relocating Villages Threatened by Flooding And Erosion (2009), GAO-09-551. https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-551.
people who died in the heat wave of 2003 Jean-Marie Robine, Siu Lan K. Cheung, Sophie Le Roy, Herman Van Oyen, Clare Griffiths, Jean-Pierre Michel, and François Richard Herrmann, “Death Toll Exceeded 70,000 in Europe During the Summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies 33, no. 2 (2008): 171–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001.
twice as likely as a result Peter Stott, Dáithí Stone, and Myles Allen, “Human Contribution to the European Heatwave of 2003,” Nature 432 (2004): 610–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03089.
“We’re going to do some of each” John Holdren, “Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-Being,” Science 391, no. 5862 (2008): 424–434, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1153386.
The results of our work Katharine Hayhoe, Daniel Cayan, Christopher B. Field, Peter C. Frumhoff, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Susanne C. Moser, et al., “Emissions Pathways, Climate Change, and Impacts on California,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101, no. 34 (2004): 12422–12427, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0404500101.
executive order S-3-05 Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Executive Order S-3-05, June 1, 2005, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/549885d4e4b0ba0bff5dc695/t/54d7f1e0e4b0f0798cee3010/1423438304744/California+Executive+Order+S-3-05+(June+2005).pdf.
CHAPTER 11
&n
bsp; “Why do you fight for our planet?” Gaurab Basu, Twitter post, November 30, 2020, 4:20 a.m., https://twitter.com/GaurabBasuMDMPH/status/1333370217125224450.
“Americans tend to see global warming” John Kotcher, Edward Maibach, Marybeth Montoro, and Susan Joy Hassol, “How Americans Respond to Information About Global Warming’s Health Impacts: Evidence from a National Survey Experiment,” GeoHealth 2, no. 9 (2018): 262–275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GH000154.
the then hottest summer on record Jean Robine, Jean-Marie, Siu Lan K. Cheung, Sophie Le Roy, Herman Van Oyen, Clare Griffiths, Jean-Pierre Michel, and François Richard Herrmann, “Death Toll Exceeded 70,000 in Europe During the Summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies 331, no. 2 (2008): 171–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001.
“Hot temperatures increase aggression” Craig Anderson, “Heat and Violence,” Current Directions in Psychological Research 10, no. 1 (2001): 33–38, https://doi.org/10.1111%2F1467-8721.00109.
“Failing to reduce heat-trapping emissions” Kristina Dahl, Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Rachel Licker, Astrid Caldas, John Abatzoglou, Nicholas Mailloux, Rachel Cleetus, Shana Udvardy, Juan Declet-Barreto, and Pamela Worth, Killer Heat in the United States: Climate Choices and the Future of Dangerously Hot Days (Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, July 2019), https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/07/killer-heat-analysis-full-report.pdf.
nearly 9 million premature deaths Karn Vohra, Alina Vodonos, Joel Schwartz, Eloise Marais, Melissa Sulprizio, and Loretta Mickley, “Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem,” Environmental Research 195 (2021), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110754.
“single largest environmental health risk” Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum and Annette Prüss-Ustün, “Climate Change, Air Pollution and Noncommunicable Diseases,” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 97 (2019):160–161, http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.18.224295.
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