by Dick Morris
For state and local governments, it is not only the cost of education that is driving them over the brink, but the cost of ObamaCare and its plans to expand Medicaid, adding 16 million new patients.188
Washington will pick up the full tab in the first two years and 95% of the cost until 2019.189 But, there are an additional 10 to 13 million people now eligible for Medicaid, but not currently enrolled. As Obama’s IRS hounds people to get them to take out insurance, likely a large number of these recalcitrants will sign up. And the federal reimbursement for these new participants will not rise above the 50% to 75% level now in effect. The states will have to pick up the balance.
In Texas, for example, the state Department of Health and Human Services predicts that 800,000 people who are now eligible for Medicaid but haven’t enrolled will now join the program.190 The Texas state government will have to pay 40% of their tab. The total additional cost Texas taxpayers will have to bear will come to $2.4 billion by 2023, raising serious questions about whether or not the state can continue to avoid imposing an income tax.
When you look at the costs of covering those currently eligible for Medicaid who have not enrolled, the fiscal consequences for states will be horrific:
* * *
INCREASES IN STATE MEDICAID SPENDING DUE TO OBAMACARE
Florida: $1,200 million (by 2019)
Texas: $2,400 million (by 2023)
California: $2,000 million (by 2020)
Maryland: $829 million (by 2020)
Michigan: $200 million (by 2019)
Source: Congressional Research Service191
* * *
Between the huge increases in the cost of education mandated by public employee unions and their enormous contracts and the rising cost of Medicaid brought on by Obama’s health care changes, states will be in increasingly desperate straits as the decade unfolds.
These states can survive only by reining in the unions.
These battles for our nation’s soul make us realize how far we have to go before the threat of Obamaism is lifted from our country. The ultimate answer is to defeat Barack Obama and retake the United States Senate while increasing our margin in the House.
PART FOUR
DEMOCRATS WE MUST DEFEAT
The defeats of 2010 ring like warning bells in the ears of those Democratic senators who are up in 2012. And the narrow escapes from defeat of dozens of other Democratic congressmen who were reelected by hair-thin margins have left them all with cases of PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder).
Worse for them, they are now outvoted by their radical, leftist colleagues in the Democratic caucuses of the House and the Senate. The Democratic voices of moderation—who generally came from marginal districts—have largely been defeated. A Democratic senator or congressman who is vulnerable in 2012 now finds himself bound by the decisions of a bunch of ultraliberals who, from the comfort of their safe districts, don’t mind embracing radical policies that make it even harder for the moderates to get reelected. Indeed, the only way these folks are ever going to lose is if they succumb to liberal primary challenges in the hard-core Democratic districts. This prospect further impels them to move to the left. Not that they need much encouragement!
The opposite is, of course, also true. Republicans now have power in the House. If they cave in or indulge themselves with ethical misbehavior or earmarks or the like, they will lose popular backing and their mandate will be gone.
And, if they disappoint us, many of these Republican congressmen might be gone, defeated in primaries in 2012 by Tea Party–backed true believers. Those who would cave in or compromise prematurely need to be careful lest they throw away the support of their conservative base and endanger their own seats in Congress.
The eyes of the nation are on the Republican House: they had better deliver!
It took the Democrats two cycles—2006 and 2008—to complete their takeover of our government. Republicans made giant strides in 2010, but still need to score impressive gains in 2012 to complete the job.
It will take the same kind of resolve, dedication, unity, and perseverance that animated our efforts this past year. We dare not let up. The consequences of the Democratic revival of 2006–2008 are all too close at hand for us to forget!
DEMOCRATS INVOLUNTARILY RETIRED: A PROGRESS REPORT
In our book 2010: Take Back America—A Battle Plan, we identified key Democrats, particularly in the House, at whom we urged Republicans to aim in the coming elections. We all did pretty well. In the House, sixty-three seats changed parties!
* * *
2010 HOUSE DEMOCRATIC SEATS THAT SWITCHED TO REPUBLICAN
District: AL-2
Incumbent Democrat: Bright
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Roby*
District: AR-1
Incumbent Democrat: Berry
Ran for Reelection: No**
Republican Winner: Crawford
District: AR-2
Incumbent Democrat: Snyder
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Griffin*
District: AZ-1
Incumbent Democrat: Kirkpatrick
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Gosar*
District: AZ-5
Incumbent Democrat: Mitchell
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Schweikert*
District: CO-3
Incumbent Democrat: Salazar
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Tipton*
District: CO-4
Incumbent Democrat: Markey
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Gardner*
District: FL-2
Incumbent Democrat: Boyd
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Southerland*
District: FL-22
Incumbent Democrat: Klein
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: West*
District: FL-24
Incumbent Democrat: Kosmas
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Adams*
District: FL-8
Incumbent Democrat: Grayson
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Webster*
District: GA-8
Incumbent Democrat: Marshall
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Scott*
District: ID-1
Incumbent Democrat: Minnick
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Labrador*
District: IL-8
Incumbent Democrat: Bean
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Walsh
District: IL-11
Incumbent Democrat: Halvorson
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Kinzinger*
District: IL-14
Incumbent Democrat: Foster
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Hultgren*
District: IL-17
Incumbent Democrat: Hare
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Schilling
District: IN-8
Incumbent Democrat: Ellsworth
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Bucshon*
District: IN-9
Incumbent Democrat: Hill
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Young*
District: KS-3
Incumbent Democrat: Moore
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Yoder*
District: LA-3
Incumbent Democrat: Melancon
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Landry*
District: MD-1
Incumbent Democrat: Kratovil
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Harris*
District: MI-1
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Benishek*
District: MI-7
Incumbent Democrat: Schauer
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Walberg*
District: MN-8
Incumbent Democrat: Oberstar
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Cravaack
District: MO-4
Incumbent Democrat: Skelton
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Hartzler
District: MS-1
Incumbent Democrat: Childers
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Nunnelee*
District: MS-4
Incumbent Democrat: Taylor
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Palazzo*
District: NC-2
Incumbent Democrat: Etheridge
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Ellmers
District: ND-AL
Incumbent Democrat: Pomeroy
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Berg*
District: NH-1
Incumbent Democrat: Shea-Porter
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Guinta*
District: NH-2
Incumbent Democrat: Hodes
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Bass*
District: NJ-3
Incumbent Democrat: Adler
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Runyan*
District: NM-2
Incumbent Democrat: Teague
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Pearce*
District: NV-3
Incumbent Democrat: Titus
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Heck*
District: NY-13
Incumbent Democrat: McMahon
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Grimm*
District: NY-19
Incumbent Democrat: Hall
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Hayworth*
District: NY-20
Incumbent Democrat: Murphy
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Gibson*
District: NY-24
Incumbent Democrat: Arcuri
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Hanna*
District: NY-25
Incumbent Democrat: Maffei
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Buerkle*
District: OH-1
Incumbent Democrat: Driehaus
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Chabot*
District: OH-15
Incumbent Democrat: Kilroy
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Stivers*
District: OH-16
Incumbent Democrat: Boccieri
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Renacci*
District: OH-18
Incumbent Democrat: Space
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Gibbs*
District: OH-6
Incumbent Democrat: Wilson
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Johnson
District: PA-10
Incumbent Democrat: Carney
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Marino*
District: PA-11
Incumbent Democrat: Kanjorski
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Barletta*
District: PA-3
Incumbent Democrat: Dahlkemper
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Kelly*
District: PA-7
Incumbent Democrat: Sestak
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Meehan*
District: PA-8
Incumbent Democrat: Murphy
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Fitzpatrick*
District: SC-5
Incumbent Democrat: Spratt
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Mulvaney*
District: SD-AL
Incumbent Democrat: Herseth-Sandlin
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Noem*
District: TN-4
Incumbent Democrat: Davis
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: DesJarlais*
District: TN-6
Incumbent Democrat: Gordon
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Black*
District: TN-8
Incumbent Democrat: Tanner
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Fincher*
District: TX-17
Incumbent Democrat: Edwards
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Flores*
District: TX-23
Incumbent Democrat: Rodriguez
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Canseco*
District: TX-27
Incumbent Democrat: Ortiz
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Farenthold
District: VA-2
Incumbent Democrat: Nye
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Rigell*
District: VA-5
Incumbent Democrat: Perriello
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Hurt*
District: VA-9
Incumbent Democrat: Boucher
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Griffith*
District: WA-3
Incumbent Democrat: Baird
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Herrera*
District: WI-7
Incumbent Democrat: Obey
Ran for Reelection: No
Republican Winner: Duffy*
District: WI-8
Incumbent Democrat: Kagan
Ran for Reelection: Yes
Republican Winner: Ribble*
District: WV-1
Incumbent Democrat: Mollohan
Ran for Reelection: No**
Republican Winner: McKinley*
Seat Switch Totals: 68
Democrats: 65
Republicans: 31
* * *
We should take particular pride in the defeat of Alan Grayson in Florida. This former trial lawyer, the sixth richest member of Congress, achieved notoriety for taking a tape of his opponent, Dan Webster, and editing it so as to twist its context around to mean the exact opposite of what Webster said. He deserved to lose.
The gains of 2010 were huge. There are now fewer Democrats in the House of Representatives than at any time since 1938!
The outcome of the fight for the Senate was less gratifying. While Republicans picked up six seats—seven if you count Scott Brown—we narrowly lost in Washington State and got badly beaten in Nevada, California, Delaware, and West Virginia. And Harry Reid is back!
We have to finish the job in 2012. But we need to learn the lessons of 2010 and work harder in the key states. We need to identify key races earlier and take careful aim for the next two years!
THE SENATE
In 2010, we had to fight for Senate seats in the bluest of blue states like California, West Virginia, Nevada, and Washington State. Republicans did manage takeaways in the usually Democratic states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Illinois, but it was never easy to turn a blue state red.
The good news is that many of the Democratic senators who are coming up for reelection in 2012 are from states that are far more friendly to Republicans.
In 2010, nineteen Democratic and eighteen Republican Senate seats we
re up for grabs—a ratio that favored the Democrats. That Republicans held all their own and picked up six Democratic seats (a third of those up) is quite remarkable.
But in 2012, twenty-three Democratic and ten Republican seats are up, with many more vulnerable Democrats than in 2010. (Counted among the Democratic seats are those of Bernie Sanders of Vermont and the just-retired Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, both nominally Independents, who caucus with the Democrats.)
The 2012 class includes a number of freshman senators, elected in the Democratic sweep that gave them control of the Senate in 2006. These new members of the upper chamber are entering their most vulnerable race—the first one after getting elected. And they will need to swim upstream against a Republican trend.
One of the Democratic senators—Kent Conrad of North Dakota—has followed the example of his buddy Byron Dorgan, who retired in 2010 rather than be beaten. Conrad took himself out of the race for re-election in 2012. In a solidly red state, this seat should go Republican.
Three other Democratic senators, from decidedly red states, will have tough fights:
Ben Nelson, Nebraska—He sold out his constituents by voting for ObamaCare after his state overwhelmingly begged him not to. Now he is among the walking dead. See Blanche Lincoln, who suffered a massive defeat for a similar offense, for details.
Jon Tester, Montana—A freshman elected with only 49.2% of the vote in 2006, he will be in for a tough battle. Montana is a solidly red state that should kick out Tester in 2012. Can his Montana colleague Max Baucus—the father of ObamaCare—be next in 2014??
Jim Webb, Virginia—Another freshman, Webb will be fighting a strong Republican trend in Virginia. The party took over the governor’s office in 2009 and three House seats 2010. Webb is an endangered species in 2012.
Then there are seven Democratic senators—including three freshmen—who come from swing states that Republicans carried in 2010:
Sherrod Brown, Ohio—A freshman who first won his seat in 2006, Brown is now running in a state that is becoming redder by the minute. Republicans won the governorship, the other Senate seat, and picked up five new Congressional seats here. Brown is in great danger.
Robert Casey, Pennsylvania—Another freshman from the class of 2006, Casey will have a tough reelection battle. In Pennsylvania, the GOP won the races for governor, senator, both chambers of the state legislature, and took over five new House seats. Casey parades as a conservative because he is pro-life but he has always done what Harry Reid told him to do. His vote for ObamaCare should hurt him badly. His political life expectancy is limited.