INTELLIGENCE FAILURE

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INTELLIGENCE FAILURE Page 30

by Jon Sedran


  Dayan looked coldly at Klein. “Prime Minister, both planes took off from Lebanon. The IAF reportedly tracked the one plane as it flew erratically in and out of Israeli and Jordanian airspace. I believe they used inexperienced pilots for a suicide mission and they got lost at night,” adding, “The other target was likely Tel Aviv.”

  Klein nodded. That does make sense, he thought. “Okay, keep all special weapons at the ready, in case they have anything else for us. At the first hint of anything more coming our way…anything on your radars, we will launch against the pre-selected military targets in Iran, per the plan.” He paused and then added for emphasis, “Military targets only…for now.”

  “Yes, Mr. Prime Minister,” replied Dayan.

  “Mr. Prime Minister, Russian President Koslov is on the phone,” announced the Foreign Minister, who had just arrived a few moments earlier.

  Klein nodded and then picked up the call. “Prime Minister Klein speaking.”

  “Glad to hear your voice. We have just heard of the terrible tragedies your country and Jordan have suffered at the hands of maniacs,” said Koslov. “You have our full support and we offer you our assistance.”

  “Thank you Mr. President…I am quite busy at the moment. I’m sure you understand,” said Klein.

  “Yes, completely, we will try to talk later,” said Koslov.

  “Will he launch their nukes?” asked Prime Minister Dobrinin.

  Koslov shook his head. “I don’t know,” he replied,” looking grimly at him.

  “Comrade President, the White House just advised President Acosta will be contacting you shortly on the hot line,” reported his military attaché.

  * * * *

  The news had traveled instantly around the globe. Maddy, who had left early for a hastily arranged dinner with Mark, rushed back to her office. Lowe had initiated an urgent agency-wide recall, ordering all personnel to report immediately. All military leaves were being cancelled and military forces in the CONUS and Mediterranean were ordered to DEFCON FOUR.

  Maddy arrived to find the senior staff and most of her analysts huddled in front of a large wall monitor in the conference room. She quickly texted Mark her apologies.

  “Maddy, are you seeing this?!” yelled Barillas, as they all stared in disbelief at the scenes from the two Middle-Eastern cities. “You were right all along Maddy; the Iranians did build nuclear bombs…but nobody believed you,” he said.

  “Do we know for sure it was them?” asked Maddy, frantically reviewing some reports Barillas had set out for her, before they headed to an emergency meeting with Lowe.

  “Who else would have done this?” Barillas quickly shot back.

  “Haifa, I can understand, but why Amman, an Arab capital. And why now?” Maddy asked, not really expecting an answer.

  Barillas shook his head. “I don’t know,” he replied.

  “They will examine the debris from the blast zones and trace back the source of the nuclear materials,” The DIA’s nuclear specialist, threw out.

  “If it was Iran, and it likely was, the entire world will be against them,” said Maddy. She paused, then asked, “How were the bombs delivered, do we know yet?”

  “Director of National Intelligence just put out a preliminary report,” replied Barillas, looking at the report on his screen. “It says two cargo planes were used. They took off from Beirut. That’s all they know now.”

  “We will need an assessment of the damage to both countries, ASAP,” she directed. “Focus on their military assets. What did they lose, etc., and quickly please. We have to meet General Lowe in five minutes.”

  “Already started,” Barillas replied, typing away on his keyboard.

  * * * *

  How could the plane have flown off course? Javadi wondered as he sat in his home office watching the breaking news on the television. Did they fly off course or did Commander Marid decide on his own to change the plan? Why would he? He sat glumly watching the television. The once-prosperous city of Amman had been devastated by the blast. A portion of what was a few seconds earlier a picturesque modern city with a mixture of new architecture and old whitewashed buildings, was now smoldering ruins. General Namazi too was watching from his home. What the hell happened? he asked himself. He expected to see scenes of thousands of hated Zionists fleeing in terror, two of their cities destroyed by the wrath of Allah. Instead he was seeing scenes of Jordanians, and Muslims at that, screaming in pain and horror. He knew virtually every country in the world would demand to know if Iran was in any way involved.

  * * * *

  “Maddy, please sit down,” said Lowe. Seated at his office conference table, DIA’s senior staff had gathered and were going over what was known. Lowe went on, “The information in front of you is the latest available from multiple sources on the two attacks. The Joint Chiefs and the President want answers now. Maddy, it would appear you were very much correct on Iran. However, we are still going to need proof they provided the weapons used in the two attacks.”

  “So we don’t know for certain Iran was behind this?” asked Maddy.

  Lowe rolled his eyes. “Maddy, you of all people have doubts?” he asked, incredulously.

  Maddy took a deep breath. “General, truthfully, there is something odd about the two attacks. I mean Amman, why?”

  “This report just came through from DNI,” announced Lowe. He lowered his reading glasses and read out loud. “Most likely second target was Tel Aviv. Suicide pilots likely flew off course in the darkness. Low clouds reported in the area. Plane was downed by a Jordanian fighter and device detonated.”

  “Then it was clumsy, risky plan general, with a predictably high chance of failure,” offered Maddy, adding, “Why not wait? I believe they are close to having a small weaponized device and a missile to carry it.”

  Lowe put his elbows on the table and clasped his hands. “What are you saying Maddy? They didn’t do it?” The general’s voice was abrasive and cut to the bone.

  Maddy just looked quietly for a few moments at the faces at the table. “Okay bear with me here.” she began, “There are some in the Iranian government that don’t want peace. They are the hardliners and are against the recent reconciliatory overtures of their President and also signing the agreement.” She paused for a few moments and then added, “This could have been a rogue operation. It is possible.”

  Lowe took off his glasses and tossed them on the table. “A rogue group secretly built two atomic bombs and delivered them using a proxy, and most of the Iranian leadership was kept in the dark?” Lowe asked, in a biting tone. Before Maddy could answer, he went on, “Okay, anyway, let’s go down the checklist. We will likely be at war within forty-eight hours and the Joint Chiefs want us to update our current assessment of Iranian military forces. Maddy can you and your team get that to me in four hours?”

  She glanced over at Barillas. We’ll do it general.”

  * * * *

  It was one-fifteen in the morning when the phone rang at Grand Ayatollah Kaviani’s Tehran residence. He fumbled in the dark for the bedside phone set, knocking his glasses onto the floor. “Yes,” he finally answered.

  “Ayatollah Kaviani, I have glorious news!” announced the voice on the other end, which he instantly recognized as that of Ayatollah Javadi. “The Zionist State has been severely damaged by a nuclear attack!” he exclaimed, deciding to leave off the part about Amman, at least for the time being.

  “What, when, where and who did it?” Kaviani quickly shot back, as he reached over and turned on the light on the nightstand.

  “The details are still very sketchy, Haifa appears to have been the target, but Al Jazeera is just now getting people on the scene,” replied Javadi, seemingly fumbling for words.

  Kaviani gathered his thoughts. “Let me know as soon as you have details and contact the other Council members, we will meet in thirty minutes!” he said.

  “Yes, I will do that. Allah Akbar,” Javadi quietly replied.

  Thoughts raced th
rough Kaviani’s mind as he scrambled to put on his clothes, I had not authorized any attack of this sort, but surely Iran will be blamed. He had always wanted the Zionists to attack first and then they would be the aggressor and Iran could retaliate in kind. He called for his driver and wondered. How was this possible? Iran’s nuclear weapons would not be ready for at least two or three months - and also a missile to carry them. Was this a trick of some kind?

  A few minutes later Kaviani’s driver was waiting for him in front of his residence with a government car. There were two police motorcycle escorts in front of the car. Kaviani got in and the driver quickly headed to the Tehran underground command site. It had been immediately activated in anticipation of the first U.S. and Israeli cruise missiles and bombs which would certainly soon be raining down on Tehran. Kaviani’s cell phone rang as his driver sped through the streets of Tehran. This time it was his top military advisor who informed him that the al Jazeera network was reporting that Haifa and Amman were both hit.

  “Okay, I will be at the command center shortly,” he replied. Haifa, Amman, what is going on? He asked himself. He looked out the window as the buildings flew past in the darkness. Surely, this was not us – it is not possible, but then whom? Why?

  Upon arriving at the government building, Kaviani entered through the well-concealed entrance and walked briskly with his bodyguards to the meeting room deep underground. One of his guards opened the door for him; he quickly entered. The council members were all standing, staring at the large monitors on the wall. One monitor had Al Jazeera News Live news feed and the other had CNN International Live. Details of the attacks were emerging quickly and the two major news networks were competing with each other to be the first to report on the latest news of the horrific events to a world audience. Javadi turned to Kaviani. “Both networks are reporting that one nuclear weapon exploded on or near Haifa, and the other one hit Amman!”

  “Amman?” Kaviani shot back, “None of this makes any sense.” He was certain CNN was controlled by the Zionists, but Al Jazeera he thought to more fair, and they were reporting much the same thing. An Israeli retaliatory strike on Jordan? He wondered. No, that makes no sense either, and who dropped a nuclear bomb on Haifa?

  “We need to make a statement to the press,” announced Ayatollah Barum, “The IRNA News people are waiting to broadcast it to the world. Do we want to investigate this first, do we need more time to…?”

  Kaviani angrily interrupted, “Tell them we did not do it,” he demanded, “Tell them we are not culpable and took no part in these heinous attacks.”

  “We have prepared a statement stating exactly that; we will broadcast it right away,” said Barum.

  * * * *

  The National Security Council members had quickly assembled in the White House Situation Room and were struggling to get the facts.

  “Mr. President, the Iranian government spokesman is making a statement now on the official Iranian news agency IRNA. It is on monitor number two,” Alby announced.

  The President and the NSC members sat and watched the IRNA announcer read the prepared statement: “As the official spokesman for the Iranian government, I can say with complete certainty, Iran had no part in these attacks. Further, we have no idea who might have been responsible. The people of Iran are peace-loving and would never attack fellow Muslims, or any other country. Iran will only strike in self-defense. The illegal and unprovoked attack and sinking of our ship by the U.S. Navy, forced us to respond to defend our national sovereignty by placing mines in the waters off our coastline. We have every right to take this defensive action. Further aggressions will be met with greater force by our loyal forces.”

  They’re lying,” said Acosta, in a commanding voice, as he looked around the table. “Gentlemen, I believe the Iranians were behind, and even participated in, the nuclear attacks on Israel and Jordan. Now I want proof.” He slammed a briefing folder down on the table. “It is also clear they planned to hit two Israeli cities, but their plans went awry. Further, they may have more weapons of mass destruction available, or soon will. Therefore, I am authorizing operation ‘Gentle Hammer.’ We will make use of our latest technology to neutralize the threat, while refraining from mass casualty attacks, and hopefully avoiding the need for boots on the ground.”

  “Mr. President, sir, with two confirmed nuclear blasts I suggest we bring our forces in the area to DEFCON TWO immediately,” said Simpson.

  “General Bingham?” asked Acosta

  “Yes sir, I agree, and I also recommend bringing our forces in the Mediterranean to DEFCON THREE,” said Bingham.

  “Okay, do it, and notify the Russians that we are doing it,” said Acosta.

  “Yes sir,” said Alby

  “Any more details yet, Ray?” asked the President.

  “Apparently, neither city was hit dead center, but still a lot of damage. First estimates on yields, eight to ten kilotons each. We’re getting more details coming in now; we have everyone working on it,” replied Alby.

  * * * *

  The Israeli Prime Minister, now surrounded by his closest advisors, knew he needed to stay calm and keep a clear head in order to deal with the situation. The sixty-year old Klein had served as an officer in the Israeli military and had faced difficult situations before, but this was about Israel’s very survival. “They say the flash was visible for over twenty miles in every direction,” he said loudly, reading an e-mail from his security staff. He looked up at his Defense Minister, “Why was there no warning? Why no air-raid sirens? Why?” he demanded to know.

  “Mr. Prime Minister, the people in Haifa were already getting sent to their shelters as many as four times a day due to the Hezbollah rockets barrages,” answered Dayan.

  “The blast shattered windows ten miles away said a furious Klein, continuing, “Anybody unlucky enough to be above ground within a one-mile radius of the detonation was killed instantly. Houses in the primary blast zone have either been incinerated or were swept from their foundations. Cars and trucks instantly exploded in flames, or were crumpled and tossed hundreds of feet.” He looked up over his reading glasses at Dayan. “Initial very rough estimates put the yield in the range of six to eight kilotons.”

  Dayan nodded. “We will make them pay,” he said firmly.

  Klein tossed the report on the table. “In the future there will be scathing internal reviews of how our intelligence agencies handled, or mishandled might be a better way to put it, the information they had received. But for now, the immediate aftermath of the attack has to be dealt with, and prepare for possibly more attacks,” said a stern-faced Klein. He sighed, and then looked at the senior military officer present.

  “Mr. Prime Minister, it appears from initial reports the bomb detonated on the outskirts of the city, to the east. Our military forces in the area suffered only minimal damage. One radar site closest to the detonation had all its equipment destroyed by the bomb’s electromagnetic pulse,” the officer reported.

  “Our civil defense units have gone into action, they are well-trained and responding quickly,” reported Dayan.

  He was momentarily interrupted by a military staffer entering the room. “Mr. Prime Minister the special weapons have been loaded onto the planes. They will be airborne shortly and will fly their pre-planned holding patterns, awaiting your orders,” he announced.

  “Heaven help us all,” said Klein, looking directly at Dayan. “Thank you,” Klein said to the staffer, who quickly left the room.

  “And Mossad? What the hell happened, general? Klein asked.

  “We had some information and we passed it along, but it was not enough to act on,” Kahane replied.

  “Mr. Prime Minister, the President of the United States is on secure line two,” interrupted an aide.

  The Prime Minister nodded. He slowly got up, walked over to a console and sat down. Picking up the phone’s handset he depressed the secure button and announced, “Prime Minister Klein speaking.”

  “Mr. Prime Mi
nister, I trust you were not hurt?” asked Acosta with a very urgent tone in his voice.

  “No…so far I am alright,” Klein answered tersely.

  “Do you know anything? Who? Why?” the President asked with tremendous urgency in his voice, adding, “My own information is still very sketchy.”

  “We are of course, using all our resources to find out more. It was a nuclear bomb attack on the city of Haifa. We understand Amman was hit too. We are preparing for more!” the Prime Minister said in resolute voice.

  “Do you know who did this?” Acosta asked.

  “Mr. President, our enemies are numerous. But of those most capable, I am ninety-nine percent certain Iran was behind it. Initial data shows the flights originated in Beirut, likely a Hezbollah operation.

  “How much damage and casualties?” Acosta asked.

  “I do not know, but I should get that information shortly…I’m sorry Mr. President but I have to go.”

  “I understand. Please keep me informed as soon as you know more. We will assist in any way we can. Our fleet is at full alert and being repositioned closer to Israel.”

  “Thank you, but I have to go…”

  “I understand, we are with you one-hundred percent,” said Acosta. Then he added, “One last thing, I am asking you to please hold off on any retaliation until we can coordinate our military reply.”

  There was a short silence. “And if they are readying another bomb Mr. President - right now?” replied Klein, his voice showing indignation.

  “I will get right back to you,” said Acosta.

  “We will do what we have too,” said Klein, and he hung up the phone.

  Acosta looked around the table. “We need to know who did this - now!” he demanded, looking intently at Simpson. Then he let out a deep sigh, “We cannot let this turn into World War III. I’m sure the Israelis are readying their nukes.”

  “Mr. Secretary, NRO says they will have a satellite over the area in twenty minutes,” interrupted a staffer. “They are checking cloud cover now. If it’s clear enough, and it should be, they will transmit real-time high-definition video to us. They will also move other assets into position and be ready at first light.”

 

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