by Jon Sedran
“Yes Mr. President, I’ll get my senior staff together and get right on it.”
Acosta ended the call. “Let’s convene in the Situation Room at zero-six hundred,” he directed.
CHAPTER TWENTY-SEVEN
“Ayatollah, I am getting calls from all over the world…and many questions,” said Iranian President Massoud, explaining the situation to Kaviani in the Ayatollah’s office. “Nearly every leader in the world has called me expressing both outrage and uncertainty, and trying to head off a global nuclear escalation. I don’t have any answers…but I keep repeating that Iran was not responsible for this. We have no nuclear weapon program. After all I am the President and I would know if we did.”
“Sit down please, said Kaviani. “I have something important to tell you.” Massoud had a strong feeling he wasn’t going to like what Kaviani was going to say next.
“I kept this from you…and perhaps I was wrong to do so,” Kaviani admitted. “I wanted to keep you away from the program, so you would be truthful when you responded to questions. Now I see it might have been a mistake to do so.”
“What program?” asked Massoud, his voice filled with apprehension.
“For several years we have been enriching uranium to eighty-percent at Natanz and Fordow, and we have been producing plutonium at Arak.” He glanced over at his PC monitor which had Al Jazeera news on it. “Ayatollah Javadi was in charge and reported directly to me.”
“Ya Allah, then we did provide those two nuclear bombs?”
“No…we did not. We do not yet have sufficient materials. Ayatollah Javadi assures me all our fissile materials are fully accounted for…he is verifying the counts now.”
Massoud was both shocked and furious. “I am the President of Iran, how could you not have told me this nuclear weapon project?!” he demanded to know.
“As I said, I wanted you to be able to be truthful when you spoke to the press, and not have to lie.”
“But I was lying…I was lying because you people kept this project from me,” said Massoud. “Now you tell me we did not supply those two bombs…or help carry out those attacks, but then who did? Are you keeping anything else from me? I have to know, I am the President, damn it!”
“No, I am keeping nothing else from you,” Kaviani answered, shaking his head. “We will find out who built and set off those two bombs.”
“Ayatollah, how can you be so certain we were not responsible?”
“What do you mean?”
“You kept this program from me, how can you be certain others did not keep something from you?” he asked, adding, “If we are culpable in any way, I will resign immediately.”
Kaviani stared blankly ahead. Could it be? he wondered. He suddenly had a nagging feeling Javadi wasn’t telling him everything.
* * * *
At IDF Unit 8200 Sergeant Herzog knew once again her intuition had been right. As soon as she learned of the attacks, she had quickly gone into the database and retrieved the cell phone conversations between the truck driver on the road to Beirut, and his girlfriend. She took the transcripts immediately to her supervisor.
“Major, I’m sure this intercept was from the driver of a truck which carried the bombs from Iran to the Beirut airport,” Herzog reported, adding, “It has all the dates on times on it.”
The major sat down and read through the transcript. “Send it to me electronically and I’ll get it right off to Tel Aviv.”
* * * *
“The situation in Jordan and Israel has stabilized for the moment,” observed Certov at a Kremlin senior military leadership meeting.
“We asked our friends in Syria to pressure Iran to get Hezbollah to stop their missile attacks, at least for now,” said Andropov, adding, “The situation could explode at any moment.”
“I understand our people in Lebanon uncovered some information implicating our Iranian friends,” said Certov.
Andropov nodded slowly. “Our sources have indicated the two trucks that most likely carried the bomb parts were traced back to an Iranian company. The two planes were apparently in Iran in a hangar at an air base for a few weeks, and then went to Damascus, then on to Beirut.”
“Do the Americans know any of this,” asked Certov.
“I do not think so yet. But if we found out, so will they. And their teams in Lebanon apparently found plane maintenance records pointing to Iran, as well.
* * * *
The analysis center at DIA headquarters was in a state of controlled chaos. Barillas’ team had been at it for twenty-four hours straight. “I cannot find the before and after NRO satellite images of the Haifa and Amman areas Maddy asked for,” said a frustrated Barillas continuing, “We have crap spread everywhere, on every Goddamn table…shit, we need to get organized folks.” The bleary-eyed staff glanced up from their monitors, but said nothing.
“All right, no problem…I’ll just print them out again,” Barillas mumbled, as he walked back to his PC.
“Israeli damage assessment teams are estimating the device yield at about five to six kilotons and they are also saying it was detonated at about one-hundred to two-hundred feet above the ground,” an analyst yelled out at Barillas
“What about Amman?” Barillas asked.
“Nothing yet, but definitely much more damage,” she replied.
Maddy walked in and surveyed the scene. “How is it going everyone?” she asked. Papers and photos were strewn everywhere as analysts scurried from table to table reviewing the data pouring in from stations around the globe.
Barillas briefly looked up. “Hello,” he mumbled, as he sorted through the mess of papers. “I have everyone looking at NSA intercepts, to check on Iran’s current military readiness,” he added. Maddy leaned against one of the empty desks and glanced down at the in-basket. It was filled with unread NSA intercepts. She picked a few up and read through them. One caught her attention. There were two high-ranking Iranian generals talking on their cell phones and they were asking each other what had happened and who might have done those attacks? They wondered if their forces would be activated soon.” She thought about it for a few moments, then said, “Everyone take break and come over here for a minute.” The staff stopped what they were doing and gathered around her. “I am going to fill you in on what General Lowe and I told the President about what happened. We are basing it on everything we have gathered so far, including what I found on my trip to Pakistan. Maddy looked anxiously at her staff. “I believe the attacks were carried out by Hezbollah with the bombs supplied by Iran, but without most of Iran’s top leadership knowing about it.” The staff stood silently looking at each other. Several shook their heads.
“How? A rogue operation,” asked Barillas, shaking his head.
“Yes, by hardliners upset with the nuclear agreement, and their President planning to meet with ours. Likely the IRGC played a big role in it. I just saw this intercept, there are two high-ranking Iranian generals talking on their cell phones, and asking each other what happened and who might have done those attacks? They wondered if their forces would be activated soon.” She paused, then said, “Now, if the Iranian leadership had ordered those attacks, wouldn’t they have informed their military leaders in advance?”
“Even if that’s true, Iran is still responsible for allowing it to happen,” replied Barillas. “And it confirms you were right, they were lying about not having a nuclear weapons program.”
“I agree they are responsible, and I’m sure we’re going to hit their nuke sites,” Maddy replied. “I am also one-hundred percent certain the fissile materials used in those two bombs came from Pakistan and was not from Iranian sources.”
“What should we do now?” he asked.
“Keep after it. I’m sure we are going to war and your assessments are critical to our success, she said, managing a weak smile. “I really appreciate all your efforts everyone. I have to meet with General Lowe.”
The group drifted back to work.
* * * *
> At five am the President reconvened the National Security Council in the Situation Room.
A bleary-eyed Acosta slowly took his seat. “Good morning everyone,” he said.
A few in the room mumbled, “Good morning.”
He went on to lay out the results of the investigation. “We have gathering sufficient evidence to determine with ninety-nine percent certainty who was responsible for these heinous attacks, and which country facilitated them. There is no doubt as to the guilt of both parties. Hezbollah carried out the attacks and certain government officials in Iran provided the weapons and other support. In one hour Secretary Kragen will present all the information to the U.N. and I will simultaneously hold a news conference.” He sat thinking for a few moments. We cannot just sit back and do nothing while we wait for the U.N. to authorize the use of force. It could take months…and right now Iran could have other nukes, and be building still more. Including small ones which will fit on a missile. He stopped and looked around the table, then said, “General Bingham are you ready to execute the plan which we all agreed upon…an air strike on Iran?”
“Yes Mr. President, we have moved sufficient forces into the area,” replied Bingham, adding, “NATO forces are also ready and in-place.”
“Good, all our NATO allies, as well as the Russians and the Israelis and Jordanians, have been briefed on what we found out. I believe the Russians will stay out, so long as we don’t launch a ground invasion,” said Acosta.
“That won’t likely be necessary Mr. President,” Bingham stated, adding, “We have assembled a large force of our newest technologies and most lethal aerial assets in Iran’s neighboring countries.”
Acosta nodded. “I do not foresee this turning into a prolonged war, but anything can happen. I think we will enjoy wide-spread support from most of the world. I hate to say it, but if the bombs had only destroyed Israeli cities, it might be different. At any rate, the devastation done to Amman has left Iran with no allies. Even those not completely convinced of our evidence, will distance themselves from Tehran.”
“Agreed,” said Simpson.
“General Bingham, let’s commence operation Valiant Hammer,” directed Acosta.
Bingham picked up his secure phone and pressed a saved number, “This is General Bingham, commence Operation Valiant Hammer and start the clock.”
“Shock and Awe, general,” said Acosta.
“Yes, sir,” replied Bingham as he sent off a confirming secure flash message to all military commands.
“How long before the fireworks begin?” asked Acosta, looking up at a wall monitor.
“Mr. President, we will commence the cyber-attack on Iran’s defenses in one hour. The first wave of cruise missile and drone attacks will start in two,” replied Bingham.
“May God give us the strength and wisdom to prevail,” said Acosta.
Everyone at the table nodded silently.
* * * *
This had clearly been the biggest intelligence failure for Israel’s Mossad since the nineteen seventy-three Yom Kippur War, with the results even more devastating to the tiny country. Mossad Director General Kahane knew he would be replaced, but for now he had every available person working around the clock. Their nuclear technical analysis group had finally found time to look at the data from Parchin that Shirazi had sent just before he was secreted out of Iran. How and where did they assemble the devices? Did they actually build them, or get them complete? Do they have more? They had to find out. Kahane headed to the lab where the analysis was being done.
“This clearly shows a successful series of two-point implosion tests,” reported the senior technician reviewing the data and high-speed X-Ray photos spread out on the table.
“So, for a compact nuclear weapon?” asked Kahane.
The technician looked down at the photos. “Yes, this is almost the exact method for compressing the pit, we…I mean…uhmm, is widely used.”
“Okay, they are working on miniaturizing a nuclear weapon…correct?” asked Kahane.
The technician nodded.
Kahane thought for a few moments. “Would you say they are close to having a small nuke?”
The technician again nodded.
“Then, why would they have used two crude gun-type nuclear devices and a risky delivery method if they are close to perfecting a compact implosion design for a missile…why not wait?”
“I don’t know.”
Kahane sighed. “Thank you, send me the report and I will send this information up to the Defense Minister.”
As soon as he got back to his office a high-priority e-mail appeared on his monitor. It was from the commander, IDF Unit 8200. Damn it, he though, as he read through the message.
Two trucks supposedly carrying a load of pipes and oil field equipment went from Iran to the Beirut
airport the day before attack.
Two planes ferried from Damascus airport, same day.
Increased Hezbollah drone activity.
It all fits…damn…we missed it.
CHAPTER TWENTY-EIGHT
At Khatam ol-Anbia Air Defense Base in Iran, the commanding general of Iran’s air defense system was making the rounds inspecting their main surveillance radar and command and control site. Radar operators were at their stations twenty-four seven monitoring the airspace over Iran as well the airspace out over a hundred miles beyond Iran’s coastline. All had been warned to be extra vigilant, expecting that an attack from the air could come at any moment.
Suddenly numerous air defense radar screens all showed dozens of targets approaching Iranian airspace from several directions. The air defense section commanders began frantically calling in reports.
“What is going on?” the general asked the on-duty commander, as they went from station to station. The commander could only shake his head. Then, just as suddenly, all the screens went dark. This was followed by numerous alarms going off. The general quickly picked up a secure phone to contact another site. The phone was dead. He immediately tried another, it too was dead.
* * * *
At a White House press conference a stunned nation watched and listened as the President spoke about the dire world situation and the great challenges which lay ahead.
“I want to announce to the American people I have ordered the commencement of an intensive aerial bombing campaign against Iranian military targets in response to their obvious culpability in the heinous attacks on Israeli and Jordan. We have proof that Hezbollah carried out the attacks and that they were done with full Iranian support. We can also prove the nuclear material originated in Pakistan, and that it was likely stolen and taken to Iran some years back. Two bombs were later fabricated using this material and placed into the hands of Hezbollah. We must be certain we prevent any further possible aggression by Iran, by either their conventional or now, nuclear forces. Our NATO allies are fully participating, as are the Saudis and Jordanians. I have asked the U.N. to establish a no-fly zone over Iran. The Israelis will use their assets to attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon as well as Iranian and other fighting units in Syria. Both suicide flights originated from the Beirut airport in Lebanon and were readied in a leased hangar traced to Hezbollah.” He took a deep breath. “I know everyone has a lot of questions, but I have to get back. My press secretary will hold another news conference tomorrow and answer your questions. Thank you.”
* * * *
“Mr. Prime Minister, President Acosta is on the secure line,” announced an aide.
Klein picked up the call. “Mr. President, I just watched your news conference.”
“I have you on the speaker; I have Secretary of State Kragen here with me. I just want to reassure you that you have our full support and we will not stop until Iran no longer poses a threat to anyone.”
“Thank you, we are grateful for all the assistance, Mr. President.”
“You’re welcome…more is on the way,” replied Acosta. “I understand your forces are focusing their efforts on destroying Hezbol
lah rocket launching sites and pushing back the Iranian Republican Guard forces in Syria.
“Yes, we are hitting them hard from the air.”
“You will soon be assisted by Turkish and other NATO forces,” said Acosta. “I appreciate your continued restraint in holding off on attacking Iran. You have given us time to coordinate our military efforts.”
“How much longer should we wait?” asked Klein, frustration clearly evident in his voice.
“I need to tell you something very important,” Acosta responded. “Our information points to a rogue operation carried out by a few hard-liners in Iran using Hezbollah as their proxy. And we know with ninety-nine percent certainty the bomb material originated in Pakistan.”
“What difference does all this make?” asked a disgusted Klein.
“We may be able to get regime change without an invasion,” he said, looking at Kragen, “And, well…you may want to rethink incinerating Tehran.”
“I will certainly check out all the information you sent us. Thank you for calling, Mr. President.” Then he hung up.
Kragen and the President looked at each other. “Will he let us handle Iran? Will he nuke them?” Acosta wondered aloud.
* * * *
In the first forty-eight hours of kinetic operations against Iran, the most comprehensive and far-reaching cyber-attack in history had crippled much of their air defense system. Radars could no longer be relied upon to furnish accurate information. Orders to bring on-line backup systems were countermanded by orders to stand down, then to reconfigure. More than a few people in U.S. Cyber Command were enjoying watching the results of their well-planned and well-executed efforts.