INTELLIGENCE FAILURE

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INTELLIGENCE FAILURE Page 42

by Jon Sedran


  “Or so they would have us believe,” offered Lowe.

  Maddy nodded. “It is very possible there was a secret program within their secret program,” she replied.

  Lowe picked up a small family photo from his desk and looked at it. “Maddy, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed working with you…you’re the best. He sighed. “I think I’ll take leave tomorrow…I owe myself a day off. I’ll come in and pack up my stuff over the weekend…thank you again.”

  Maddy offered her hand as she wiped away tears from her eyes with the other. “Not fair general.”

  * * * *

  General Stein and his Cyber Command staff were ecstatic. The cyber attacks initiated against Iran’s military and civilian infrastructure had exceeded even the loftiest expectations of the Pentagon’s Cyber Command planners. In a short time Iran’s military command and control systems had been crippled and oil production and distribution control systems throughout the country had been forced off line. All nuclear power plants and uranium production operations had gone down and Tehran had lost ninety-percent of it electricity.

  At four pm eastern time, the phones at the second largest bank in the U.S. began to ring. In less than thirty minutes their customer service lines became overwhelmed by the shear volume of calls and shut down. The few customers who had been able to get through were furious. Tens of thousands of bank accounts which had previous had positive balances now showed enormous negative balances. The credit cards of thousands of bank customers had been cancelled, and accounts now showed most owed millions of dollars. The bank’s cyber-security team had never seen anything like it and immediately contacted the FBI, who in turn contacted the Department of Homeland Security.

  In Atlanta, the main computer controlling traffic signals had begun directing thousands of traffic lights to change every two seconds and there were reports of traffic lights at intersections turning green for every direction at the same time. In less than thirty minutes there were hundreds of accidents and virtually all traffic had come to a complete standstill.

  Shortly thereafter, the screens all went dark at the Los Angeles Air Route Traffic Control Center responsible for the sequencing of thousands of airline flights, and then the emergency power failed. This caused a huge backup of air traffic across the entire U.S. with the effects rippling all the way across the Pacific to Asia. In the Chicago area millions suddenly lost power, elevated trains quit running and people were stuck in elevators. The area’s 9-1-1 emergency service did not receive any calls at all. For millions of cell phone users there were major outages from coast to coast.

  The President was at his desk when he received the news from the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. “Mr. President we are experiencing a broad cyber-attack against a major bank and against infrastructure. At this point we are not sure who is responsible, or the extent of the attack. We are working with Cyber Command and the FBI to find out and get it stopped.”

  “Shit…send me a text with the details and keep me posted,” Acosta directed.

  CHAPTER THIRTY-FOUR

  Twenty-four hours later the President was in the Situation Room meeting with the Secretaries of State and Defense, along with his National Security Advisor and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. On the T.V. news coverage was no longer about the emerging peace deal, but instead was showing the major disruptions and chaos caused by the cyber attack on the U.S.

  “We were to damn overconfident,” said Acosta angrily.

  “We are slowly gaining the upper hand Mr. President,” reported Alby.

  “Homeland Security says it will take several more days to completely control it,” Acosta responded, adding, “People are scared…anyway let’s move on.”

  “Mr. President, the ceasefire is starting to take hold and the comprehensive peace deal now has the full support of all the major parties and the U.N. General Secretary,” said Kragen, reviewing the U.N. document on her laptop screen.

  “We have achieved all our military objectives,” added Simpson, glancing at Bingham.

  “Mr. President, all primary military targets in Iran have been neutralized, reported Bingham. “Secondary targets, including much of their oil production infrastructure, has been destroyed or severely crippled. We have slowly been standing down our forces, as has NATO. The Saudis and Jordanians are standing down as well. Operation ‘Northern Wind’ was a success.”

  “And the Israelis?” inquired Acosta.

  “They have concluded most of their air operations in Lebanon and Syria,” said Bingham, adding, “No reports of any more rockets being fired by Hezbollah either.”

  The President looked around the room. “We were lucky, very lucky, the Israelis almost launched everything.”

  Bingham nodded. “Yes sir, it was close.”

  “We took a few hits, but I think the Iranians learned their lesson,” offered Acosta, glancing over at Simpson.

  “Our commanders are awaiting your orders to stand down completely,” said Bingham, adding, “We will of course maintain a high-level of readiness.”

  “All right general, sounds like you’re telling me there’s not much left to bomb.”

  “Unless we want to target their population centers,” replied Bingham.

  “No, general, let’s not…go ahead and stand down our forces,” directed Acosta.

  “The long-term strategy you’ve laid out including a possible NATO like alliance for the region, has gained support,” said Kragen.

  “And the military balance in the area should remain favorable to us for several years…if the Russians go along with the agreement and don’t re-arm Iran,” added Alby.

  “We must make sure Iran has no more nukes,” Acosta emphasized, as he too reviewed the U.N. document on his laptop while making some notes. “The Israelis will now never agree to sign on to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. But they did agree to allow us to station U.S. forces at three locations in Israel, in a similar arrangement to what we are planning for Jordan. And Iran will allow full access to every nuclear facility in the country…and a full-time U.N. inspector presence.”

  “We are still not one-hundred percent certain if Iran has an major nuke assembly facility hidden somewhere, or if they just assembled the two devices in a warehouse,” advised Simpson, adding, “At any rate if they are hiding a secret bomb making facility, it will be found and destroyed,” he declared.

  “The deal isn’t perfect, we know that,” acknowledged Acosta. “But it’s the best we could get and the stakes are too high not to run with it.” He momentarily looked up at the wall monitor. “Our intelligence agencies let us down…they mostly assured me Iran was complying with the accord they signed.”

  “Mr. President, in all fairness, DIA did produce evidence of the Pakistani enriched uranium being stolen by Iran,” said Simpson, adding, “However, I understand the information was less than complete and not actionable.”

  “I suppose,” Acosta mumbled.

  “And the IAEA was primarily responsible for the verification,” offered Simpson. “And they were satisfied Iran was complying.”

  “Nobody could connect the dots,” he said, clasping his hands.

  The others remained silent until Kragen finally spoke up. “I guess we all wanted to believe they were complying with the agreement,” she said sheepishly, adding, “The IAEA inspectors are presently fanning out all over Iran.”

  Acosta leaned back in his chair. “They need to find this ‘Oghab-Three’…if it exists. And if not, wherever the hell they did assemble those two bombs, and if they have any more. He took off his reading glasses and rubbed his eyes. “You’ve all done good work and a grateful America thanks you. Ray please stay behind for a few minutes. The rest of you, I’m sure you all have plenty more to do than sit here listening to me.”

  Acosta waited until the others had left and closed the door.

  “Ray, I’m sure you can see I need to institute a major overhaul of our intelligence agencies.” Alby nodded. “I’ll need some names
for replacements, and so on.”

  “I’ll get right on it Mr. President.”

  * * * *

  At the heavily damaged Iranian government headquarters in Tehran, a disconsolate Kaviani was reading aloud some of the terms of the ceasefire to the remaining Guardian Council members. “President Massoud has to agree to full U.N. inspections, and a full-time inspector presence. He agreed to the re-writing our constitution to give more power to elected officials and less to religious leaders,” He set aside the document. “We have lost ninety-percent of our oil production capacity. Our military forces have been crippled. “Significant damage was done to our nuclear power facilities. There are power outages and food shortages all over the country. We have to pay reparations to Jordan and to the Zionists.” He took off his glasses and set them down. “Does anyone have the latest casualty figures?” he asked.

  “Yes,” answered a council member adjusting his reading glasses. “The most recent number is about eight-thousand civilians killed and three-thousand military, including about one-thousand IRGC casualties in Syria.”

  Kaviani shook his head. “I trusted Ayatollah Javadi…that was a mistake,” he said. “If that fool had not done this, we would have had mobile delivery systems in place and several weapons ready to go soon.”

  “The Iranian people are strong. Things will get back to normal,” offered Arachi.

  “It will take a decade,” replied Kaviani, adding, “They may even find Oghab-Three.”

  * * * *

  General Lowe finished packing up his personal effects and stepped out from his office and into the outer lobby for the last time. He carried with him a small carton containing some mementos from his years of military service. He was startled to see Maddy and nearly the entire office staff gathered together. Those seated, stood up in unison, and all began to clap.

  “Thank you …every one of you,” he said, trying hard to smile as he slowly headed toward the elevator. “I appreciate all your efforts…I will remember all of you…you are the best.”

  * * * *

  At a Café in a West Beirut neighborhood a small celebration was in progress.

  Seated at a patio table away from the other guests, Marid was about to have some coffee with Kasim and two other high-level Hezbollah commanders. “All in all, a big success,” Marid announced.

  “Yes commander, a minor setback on the Golan Heights, and we did not wipe the Zionists off the map, but we did a lot of lasting damage,” offered Kasim, smiling broadly, “Our martyrs destroyed most of one their cities and we showed them how vulnerable they are to our rockets, as well.”

  “Yes, our small highly-dedicated force has been very effective,” replied Marid.

  “Even though I would have been happier to see two Zionist cities completely destroyed, the Jordanians were guilty of aiding the terrorists attacking and killing our comrades in Syria,” offered Kasim, pausing, as the waiter brought more coffee.

  “Thank you,” Marid said to the waiter, as he picked up the cup to take a sip. The four men watched as the waiter went back inside. Unnoticed by them, he had left a red towel hanging on the bannister nearby. Kasim raised his cup. “To the defeat of the Zionists!” The others smiled and raised their cups.

  The Hellfire missile slammed into the patio not more than three feet from where the men were sitting. The table, the chairs and the four men, were all instantly vaporized. A minute later the IAF fighter pilot received confirmation on his cockpit display, ‘Target Destroyed’. He put his fighter into a tight turn and headed for home.

  * * * *

  The Russian leadership continued meeting to figure out a path forward. The Iranians had taken a beating from the technologically and numerically superior NATO forces and from the other countries in the coalition, but dealt a few good blows themselves. Russian-designed missiles had proven deadly to U.S. surface ships, and Iran had been successful in completely halting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Already weakened western economies were reeling as oil prices soared.

  “The U.S. and its allies have ended combat operations,” reported the Chief of the General Staff.

  “They have destroyed are large portion of Iran’s military capabilities,” stated Defense Minister Andropov, adding, “And Iran’s oil production and refining capabilities has suffered heavy damage, as well.”

  “As have Saudi Arabia’s and Bahrain’s,” the Russian Foreign Minister quickly threw out. “It will take years to rebuild the infrastructure of the whole region.” He paused, then added, “The American President is proposing a NATO like security arrangement for the region, with some foreign or U.N. troops stationed in Israel. I am studying the proposal carefully.”

  Certov sat reviewing satellite imagery. “What about Iran’s nuclear facilities?” he asked. “These photographs appear to show only minimal damage.”

  Andropov reviewed some notes on his tablet PC, then said, “Yes, comrade general, as far as we can tell it appears most of the damage was to ancillary equipment at each site, cooling towers and such, forcing reactor shutdowns. The reactors themselves were left untouched preventing another radiation disaster like Chernobyl.”

  “Iran will need our help to rebuild, and since the world needs that region’s oil, they should be able to pay for our services,” added the Foreign Minister.

  “The arrogant Americans lost one of their carriers,” said Andropov, smiling, as he looked at a satellite photo of the crippled ship. “It was heavily damaged and will be in port for repairs for at least a year, or longer.”

  “Yes, our weapons were very effective against the ships,” Certov boasted. “Even in Iranian hands our initial assessments show our missile systems enjoyed a seventy-percent success rate against the Americans’ best counter-measures.”

  “Even better than you thought we would do, comrade general” added Andropov.

  Certov frowned. “Yes, but the Americans aren’t stupid, arrogant yes, but not stupid. They will improve their defensive systems. We know they are working on powerful new lasers.”

  “Yes, and our best scientists are already working on ways to defeat them,” replied Andropov confidently. “That is how this game is played, is it not general?”

  “A deadly game,” the Foreign Minister quickly threw out, adding, “The world came too close to a full nuclear confrontation with no winners, only tens of millions of losers.”

  Andropov nodded. “Very well, I will brief our President,” he said, as he slowly pushed his chair back from the table.

  * * * *

  With the military situation stabilized and the fighting ended, senior Israeli leadership again sat down to further review how the U.N. ceasefire and peace deal would be implemented.

  “Mr. Prime Minister, it appears we avoided Armageddon,” said Defense Minister Dayan, adding, “And the call from Iranian President Massoud was promising.”

  “Yes, but of course he did resign,” replied Klein. “Anyway, the final casualty figures are in. Our losses in Haifa were less than we feared. There will be additional deaths and suffering from the radiation over the next few years.”

  Dayan adding, “Our military did very well, our casualties on the ground were about two-hundred on the Golan, verses Iranian and Syrian losses of several thousand. Syrian forces lost most of their armor and will be no threat for years to come.”

  “Amman took a far bigger hit…we were lucky the second plane flew off course,” said Klein.

  “Our air force dealt a serious blow to Hezbollah and Iran’s Quds force and accomplished nearly all of our objectives,” reported Harel, adding, “They must not be allowed to rearm.”

  “The Americans have guaranteed they will not be rearmed. The Lebanese army will take over in all areas of their country,” Klein stated. “As a condition to ending hostilities, Iran has agreed to withdraw all forces from Syria and Lebanon. U.N. peacekeepers will man all border crossings to prevent the movement of arms and military supplies.” He took a sip of water. “We will study President Acos
ta’s proposed framework for a NATO style alliance which would keep a small foreign military presence on our soil. The Russian President is also reviewing such an arrangement and will likely offer a small contingent of troops.”

  “It will take years for Iran to rebuild their forces, and their oil production infrastructure has been nearly destroyed,” said Harel, adding, “It is imperative the U.N.’s IAEA inspectors find Iran’s nuke weapons facilities.”

  Klein looked at Dayan. “How soon do you plan to stand down our forces?”

  “The general and I feel that we should stand down in stages over the next three months…all the special weapons have been secured.”

  Klein sighed. “We can never give them up…we will always be vulnerable, no matter what we do,” he reminded them. “We must remain vigilant and not count on other countries to defend us.”

  The others nodded.

  * * * *

  In the Oval Office Acosta read through the DHS cyber-attack report. It had taken three days to end it and fully restoring normal services to the affected areas would take at least another week. There would be lasting effects. People’s faith in the security of the banking system had been shaken. Large sums of money were being withdrawn in spite of assurances that the attack had been stopped and cyber defenses improved. Who would pay for all the damages? There were over six hundred vehicle collisions in the Atlanta Metro area, many with serious injuries and fatalities. Insurance companies were demanding the government step in and pay. There would likely be years of litigation ahead.

  The President set the report aside. He was visibly shaken by the knowledge of how close the world came to nuclear Armageddon. Now he met with his top aides to go back over events. “Alex, we managed to get the Israelis to agree not to go nuclear,” he said, adding, “King Haddad helped to get them to hold off. Yes, that and the fact Ayatollah Kaviani was forced to allow President Moussad to call the Israeli Prime Minister, were probably the only things that kept us from being in a large nuclear confrontation right now.” Acosta took off his glasses and held them in his hand. “Moussad was able to convince the Prime Minister he knew nothing of this plan until afterwards, and all the perpetrators will face swift trial and execution. The Russians have agreed to end all arms shipment to Iran, and to assist in forming a multinational peacekeeping force. Even the Chinese have offered to withhold all new arms shipments to Iran and participate in the force. The Iranians have agreed to all U.N. demands for a full-time inspector presence and full inspections of all nuclear facilities…including this ‘Oghab-Three’…whatever it is.”

 

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