by Bob Goddard
“When you speak to your families you can give them this ISCOM number to call for advice on contacting their government for help. It is +49 6151 900. This dedicated line will be manned by a multi-lingual team until 12 hours UTC tomorrow. From that time the ISCOM offices in Darmstadt will be shut as staff are relocated to places of safety. For this reason I would urge your loved ones to call ISCOM as soon as possible so that arrangements can be made for them by their governments.
“Besides helping those on Earth, we also have to take urgent and ongoing action to protect ourselves here at Armstrong Base. We are not threatened by the comet itself, but dust and debris from its tail will cross the Moon’s orbit from 20 hours on Thursday. The direction of approach is from the farside, so we must protect what we can on that side of the mountain from micrometeoroid impacts. All surface activity will cease and all personnel must be inside by 18.30 hours Thursday and not venture outside until the all-clear is given.”
She paused and took a deep breath before continuing. “The other major consideration is the likelihood of our resupply being delayed still further. Atmospheric dust is likely to restrict air and space travel for some time after the impact. The Chinese space agency has pledged to launch a resupply mission at the earliest opportunity. However, we must anticipate a launch delay of several weeks – possibly months – after the comet impact.
“For this reason we need to increase our efforts to make Armstrong Base fully self-sufficient. To ensure that we have enough food, water and air for the foreseeable future, we all need to work a little harder and for a little longer. From today’s change of shift at 14 hours we will be switching to a three-shift system. Each shift will last eight hours so that we can work around the clock. All personnel will be included.”
Another pause. Nadia was choosing her words carefully. “I know you all feel as devastated by today’s news as I do. We are all fearful and anxious for our families and uncertain about the future. But we must not let our fear stop us from doing what is necessary to survive. We must keep fit and healthy so we can return to our loved ones when the opportunity comes.
“Therefore I am asking every one of you to redouble your efforts and co-operate fully with our new regimes. Everyone who was due to work this morning’s shift has had a late start, so please return to your duties immediately. Please remain at your posts for as long as necessary to instruct the new people who will be starting the first eight-hour shift at 14 hours today.
“We will all have to make some adjustments, but I know that I can rely on you. With your help, your courage and your optimism, we can all get through this together. I remain committed to your welfare above all other considerations and I thank you for your vital contribution to our community.”
Lian sat and stared at her screen, thinking hard. The Governor’s vidcast began to run again on auto-repeat. She stopped it and marvelled at Nadia’s composure, quick-thinking and energy. But she was shocked that the vidcast had not criticised China at all. In fact it had highlighted their promise to send a resupply ship at the first opportunity. Why didn’t Nadia condemn them instead?
Her comm chimed again. It was Nadia asking Lian, Will and Tamala to come to her office in fifteen minutes. Maybe Lian would get her answer then.
* * * * *
Earth, 1504
Mammed had hatched the escape plan with Lucy and her two brothers, Ifan and Jack, late at night in Lucy’s kitchen. Her husband Sam would have joined in too, but he was away in the hills tending their flock of sheep and goats in the summer pastures.
Any attempt to snatch the men away from their guards while on their way to the gallows in the town square was ruled out. There was widespread support for Yonaton and Benyamin among the townsfolk. Many had pledged to help free the men, but there were just too many Convertors in the Cardinal’s religious army. With their pikes and swords, any confrontation would result in terrible bloodshed.
Then Mammed had said he could climb up to the window where he had seen Benyamin’s face. Using the captain’s telescope he had studied the tower from the deck of Ifan and Jack’s fishing boat while they hauled their lobster pots. That was before the Cardinal’s men had impounded their boat. Lucy protested that it was much too dangerous. He would fall and be killed on the rocks below. Besides, even if he did manage to climb to the top of the tower without being seen, there was no way her father and Benyamin could climb down it.
“You could use one of our spare lobster pot ropes, Mammed,” said Ifan. “We have a new one. It’s very strong and long enough to reach to the top of the tower.”
“But you said the window had iron bars, Mammed. How will they get out?” argued Lucy, still convinced it was a crazy idea.
“I will speak with Winson in the morning,” said Jack. “He will have a saw that can cut through those bars. He will help us, for sure.”
“So, you think you can climb the wall like a spider, then cut through the bars and lower Papa and Benyamin down on a rope,” said Lucy. “What then? The Cardinal’s men will come straight here and catch them again. And we will all get strung up alongside them.”
“Not if we get them away, out of Dominion altogether,” said Ifan. “If they are not here, we can’t be accused of helping them escape.”
“How will you do that?” probed Lucy. “All the boats are locked in the harbour at night with a chain across the entrance.”
“Hmm, it’s a good point,” said Jack, rubbing his chin just like his father did when he was puzzling over a problem. “But we will think of something…”
They argued over the details until the early hours of the morning, when Lucy said her children would soon be awake and hungry for their breakfast. She ordered her brothers and Mammed to their beds as if she were their mother. They were happy to go, now they had the makings of a plan.
* * * * *
Moon, 2087
Will Cooper arrived at the Governor’s office to find Lian and Tamala standing outside the door looking uncomfortable. He soon discovered why when he heard raised voices and realised there was a slanging match in Russian going on inside. There was a shout then the door was snatched open and a red-faced young man stormed out, pushed past them and bounced angrily away.
“Oh dear,” said Tamala, “someone is not happy.”
“Please come in,” called Nadia from inside.
When they had shut the door behind them, she continued in a level voice. “That was Andrei Lanimovskiy, the fifth of the tourists, finding out that he will have to do some work for the first time in his life. I had hoped he might volunteer but it seems he needs some encouragement.”
“Do you want me to have a word with him?” asked Will.
“No thank you, Will. That will not be necessary. I told him that now his vacation is over we cannot afford to feed him unless he makes a contribution to the welfare of the colony like everyone else. He will see sense when his stomach starts to rumble.”
“Goodness, Nadia!” Tamala was shocked. “We can’t starve him into submission, surely? And won’t ISCOM have something to say about it when his father puts pressure on them?”
“I have no intention of letting him starve, Tamala. He is a spoiled child who is used to getting his own way and giving nothing in return. A few days of fasting won’t do him any harm. It will help him to appreciate the realities of life here at Armstrong Base.”
Nadia looked down at her screen for a few seconds, then met their eyes and continued. “As for his father and ISCOM, the rules have changed. My duty in the event of an emergency is to do whatever is in the best interest of the whole colony.
“We have to keep everybody here focussed on working hard to make us self-sufficient before our food runs out. We had been hoping for resupply within a month, but that now seems unlikely. In truth we don’t know when our next supply ship will reach us. It is imperative that we are able to produce everything we need in the shortest time possible.”
She let out a short sigh of frustration. “Hunger and malnutrition are a r
eal possibility unless we can increase our growing capacity quickly. That is why we are switching to three eight-hour shifts, working around the clock from 14 hours today. I need your help to make this change and get the remaining scientists working as soon as possible. And I need you to instil a sense of urgency without creating panic or despair. It will be a tough call. Most of our fellow colonists are already in a state of panic over the fate of their families.
“Unfortunately, at the moment, we don’t know what that fate is. I have asked Thijs Jansen to research the likely outcome of this impact both in the short and long term. He is liaising with the astrophysics team at ISCOM to get the latest information and will brief us towards the end of this meeting.”
Nadia ran her long fingers through her short, spiky hair. “I have done what I can to pull strings to protect our relatives. ISCOM agrees that our welfare is linked to the safety of our families, so there is a strong case for giving our people priority. How the different governments around the World will respond is another matter. I am hoping the information Thijs can provide will also help.”
“I’m sure my family will receive no assistance from the Malawian government, Nadia,” said Tamala. “They have issued no advice and their offices are said to be deserted. The police have also left their posts and there is looting on the streets, according to the news.”
“I’m sorry to hear that, Tamala. Weak governments soon lose control in a crisis. I hope your family will be okay?”
“Darren is researching how they should protect themselves from the effects of the comet. My sister Elina is helping my parents gather food and water, but there is no underground shelter for ordinary people in Lilongwe. I promised to call them with advice at 10 o’clock.”
“Very well. How about you, Will?”
“My dad has places reserved in an old nuclear shelter in the Mojave Desert for him and Mom and he’s pulled some strings to get Ginny in there too. They should be okay. Looks like California will get off light now the comet’s not gonna land in the Pacific. Feel real bad for Europe, West Africa and eastern America, though. Those guys need to get a long way from the coast, don’t they?”
“Yes, they do and it’s hard to see how they can all be evacuated in time. We will need to provide extra support for our colleagues who come from those countries.” Nadia turned to Lian: “And how about you, Lian? Did you get to speak to your parents yet?”
The Chinese woman shook her head in silence. Nadia continued: “I did get ISCOM to lean on the Chinese delegate yesterday. I will speak to them again after this meeting, so keep trying, Lian. I’m sure you will get through soon.”
“What about your folk, Nadia?” It was Will who asked.
“They should be okay. Russia has plenty of old Soviet-era nuclear shelters and most have been refurbished since the war with Turkey. My father will have something organised, but I fear for the rest of the population. Most can only shelter in their homes.” She glanced down at her screen. “Ah, here is Thijs Jansen. We should learn some more, hopefully.”
There was a knock and she called out: “Come in please.”
Once the pleasantries were over the astronomer started to run the animation sequences he had downloaded from ISCOM just minutes before.
“I am sorry to say that I bring only bad news,” he said. “These predictions are based on the best science we have, but there has been no impact of this size since historical records began. This means we can only make an educated guess at the effects of Comet Santos hitting the Earth.”
He restarted the video and stopped it after a few seconds. It showed a bright white dot in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the coasts of Spain and North Africa.
“Some commentators have suggested that the comet will burn up in the atmosphere, but that’s just wishful thinking. The remaining two-thirds of Comet Santos is vast – almost six kilometres across – and so massive that only a fraction will be vaporised before it reaches the surface. The small fraction that is vaporised will generate extreme heat – approximately the same temperature as the surface of the sun.”
Tamala gasped, but he continued: “This heat will be the first thing to reach the surface. Anything combustible within 150 kilometres will be vaporised more or less instantly. Anything from 150 kilometres to 750 kilometres will be set on fire. All plant and animal life on the surface will be extinguished in this zone.” The screen now showed a bright yellow circle that just overlapped the coasts of Portugal and Morocco.
“Anybody watching the comet from closer than 1,500 kilometres will suffer injuries to their skin and permanent loss of eyesight. This will not be a spectator event.”
“Jeeesus!” muttered Will.
“The comet will approach at an angle of approximately 45 degrees which means it will pass through about 170 kilometres of the Earth’s atmosphere. It will take only seven and a half seconds from first entering the atmosphere to reaching the surface.
“As you can see, anyone within 750 kilometres will be killed within a few seconds unless they are underground or within a sturdy stone or brick building. Any rooms with windows will become ovens cooking everything inside unless the windows are protected by thick shutters, preferably made of steel.
“Any structures containing wood – most roofs for example – will catch fire and the occupants will be trapped in a burning building. I’m sorry...” He spread his hands in apology. “None of this is what you want to hear.
“After the initial blast of radiant heat will come the shock wave from the impact itself. The energy generated by the impact is estimated at 100 teratons of TNT. That is two million times more than the most powerful man-made explosive device ever detonated.
“The shock wave will extinguish all life up to 1,000 kilometres from the point of impact. Being inside a building or underground will not provide protection in this zone.” The image on the screen now showed a red circle covering most of Portugal, parts of southern Spain and most of Morocco.
“As you can see, anyone not evacuated from these countries will not survive. Those who are in very strong underground shelters beyond 1,000 kilometres stand a chance of surviving the initial impact shock, but massive earthquakes will destroy all but the most hardened of buildings across north west Africa and western Europe.”
He sighed. “In fact there will be global earthquakes triggered by the strike. The severity of these earthquakes will be influenced by refraction of the seismic waves, so some places may get off fairly lightly while others will be destroyed. Similarly, volcanic eruptions may take place at vulnerable sites around the world.”
The video rolled forward to show the comet passing through the shallow ocean and excavating an enormously wide and deep crater in the sea bed.
“Now you see the comet displacing a huge volume of sea water as well as hundreds of billions of tons of the Earth’s crust. The resulting tsunamis will sweep away everything from coasts bordering the North Atlantic and will penetrate well inland. The islands of the Caribbean will be swept clean and much of Central America will be inundated from coast to coast, for example.”
The screen showed a series of ripples spreading out from the impact point turning large areas of many countries blue, extending around the globe.
“The tsunamis will reach right around the world, with decreasing severity of course, but coastlines will not be a safe haven for several days after the impact. Unfortunately, those who have moved away from the coasts will not be safe inland either, due to the impact debris – billions of tons of rock – falling back to Earth.”
The animation showed an expanding orange circle reaching far across Europe and Africa, across the ocean to North and South America and beyond.
“These falling rocks will become incandescent as they pass through the atmosphere and will ignite fires on the ground. Underground shelters will be the best form of protection from the firestorms that will follow.
“All of these effects will take place within hours or days from the time of impact, but in the longer
term – over several weeks – the fine dust from the impact and from volcanic activity will fill the atmosphere around the world and block out sunlight. After the firestorms of the first few days there will follow a cooling of the planet and, of course, all plant life will die as photosynthesis ceases.
“Those who survive the impact, the tsunamis and the fire storms will then face a desperate struggle to endure the increasing cold and lack of food in the months – possibly years – that follow.”
Thijs Jansen looked at each in turn and said: “I’m sorry.”
Tamala stared at him open mouthed. Will’s jaw muscles twitched as he ran his hand repeatedly over his head.
It was Lian, wild-eyed and angry, who found her voice first. “Why does no-one shout and swear and scream at China?” She turned to Nadia. “Why you not blame China for all this? Why? WHY!?”
In a calm voice Nadia replied: “We don’t know that China is responsible, Lian, and even if we did, what good would it do? What we do know is that your country made a massive effort to deflect the comet and two brave Chinese men have given their lives in the attempt. No nation could have done more to avert this disaster. Going on a guilt trip on behalf of your country is not going to help anybody, Lian.
“We all need to keep our emotions under control if we are to stand the best chance of surviving here on the Moon. And we now have some information we can share with our families to help them protect themselves.”
“Can I go now, Nadia?” Tamala was edging towards the door. “I have to call my sister in Lilongwe in five minutes. I need to think what to tell her.”
“Yes, Tamala. We all need to call our families. And I need to make another vidcast to update everyone. Remember, we need to avoid panic and despair. All our lives may depend upon how we handle this information. Thank you, Thijs. That is all for now.”
* * * * *
Moon, 2087
It had been an exhausting morning for Will Cooper. First the shock of the failed deflection mission and then Thijs Jansen’s devastating forecast of the consequences for Earth and its people. He still couldn’t take it all in.