by Dietmar Wehr
“Don’t get too attached to them, CAG. The Sentry Frigate program is ramping up, now that they’ve got all the bugs worked out. Some of our boys will be yanked back before you depart for Zebra19 and given their own frigates. Just sayin. Over to you.”
“Understood. Have you had any further…insights…into the shape of things to come? Over to you.”
“Ah, negative on that, CAG. Gotta go now. I’m coming up on a high speed rendezvous with a tanker and what with all the other things I’m monitoring now, chatting with you might actually distract me from paying attention to the refueling procedure, if you can believe that. As soon as I’m refueled, I’ll be jumping away so good luck at Zebra19 and I’ll see you on the other side. Helmsman Iceman clear.” The brevity of the conversation was surprising as was the fact that an A.I. could actually be close to being overloaded with data and tasks but even the old exploration frigates had dozens of sub-systems that had to be monitored constantly. At least Iceman wasn’t bored. Shiloh had heard some of the A.I.s complain about being bored and he had always assumed that they were pulling his leg but apparently they hadn’t.
“Good luck to you too, Iceman. See you on the other side. CAG clear.”
Resolute was late being commissioned to no one’s surprise but by then her officers and crew had been chosen. Some of them came from Defiant which Shiloh expected. Shortly after her commissioning ceremonies, Maverick and Hunter were brought back by tanker. They were added to VF001 to replace two other veteran pilots that were ordered to report to Epsilon Eridani to take command of two more Sentry frigates. The rest of what Shiloh thought of as the original ‘A Team’, which had been dropped off at the Bradley Base, were on their way back now too. Bettencourt’s TG 3.2 now had 4 frigates. A fifth was expected back any day but the sixth was behind schedule at the shipyard. In other words, it was business as usual. With two squadrons available now, Shiloh put Valkyrie in charge of training both of them. Based on his recommendations, Howard named Vigilant’s CO and VF003’s CAG. Shiloh didn’t know either of them well but they had outstanding records. With those missing pieces of the puzzle now in place, Shiloh decided that it was time to start planning the actual strike on Zebra19.
The problem was that Zebra19 had LOTS of targets. So many in fact that even Valkyrie agreed there was no way for 75 fighters to successfully attack them all. With that much activity going on, there had to be a sizable defensive force there too. The single biggest target was a moon, orbiting a gas giant, which had over a dozen distinct operations of some kind on the surface. Since the moon had no atmosphere to speak of, those surface facilities had to have been some kind of mining or industrial complexes. The other potential targets were located on other moons and on over 34 asteroids. The challenge was to plot the best approach vector, which would allow the fighters to make a high speed pass of the industrial moon, in such a way as to enable the carriers to pick them up quickly and jump away before the defending forces could intercept them. There were two possible ways of approaching the Zebra19 star system. Zebra12 had four gas giants and no apparent enemy presence. Zebra15 had one gas giant and no apparent enemy presence. Of the two, Zebra15 was significantly closer but both could be used as refueling points on the way in and back out again. The difference was that refueling at Zebra15, would leave the carriers and frigates enough extra fuel upon their arrival in Zebra19, to engage in less risky high speed maneuvers, with the potential option of refueling at Zebra12 on the way back. If, on the other hand, they topped up their fuel at Zebra12 on the way in, those same high speed maneuvers would then force them to refuel at Zebra15 on the way back. With only one gas giant, Zebra15 represented a chokepoint that the enemy could potentially blockade if they reacted fast enough.
Shiloh wished that the recon frigate had surveyed the nearest star systems beside and behind Zebra19. If those systems were also vacant, then Shiloh would have seriously considered jumping past Zebra19, then refueling, then jumping to Zebra19 and the fuel saved from not having to make a 180 degree turn there, would have let the carriers and frigates engage in the high speed attack maneuvers with enough fuel left over to get to Zebra12 with four refueling points to choose from. But they didn’t have that information available. The fuel problem was complicated by the fuel consumption of the fighters, which depended upon how far away the carriers would launch them from the target, how fast they’d be going by the time they got within Mark 1 attack range and how much deceleration they needed to do in order to match velocities with the carriers afterwards in order to be recovered. He was glad that Valkyrie was capable of not only calculating all the variables for any given scenario but also coming up with new scenarios as well.
When he was comfortably familiar with all the astrogational parameters of the problem, he said.
“Intercom…Bridge communications.” The reply was almost immediate.
“Bridge Com here, Sir.”
“Gordon, I want you to set up a voice and data link with Squadron Leader Valkyrie and patch that thru to me here in my quarters.”
“Right away, Sir.” The connections took less than 5 seconds to establish.
“Valkyrie here, CAG. I calculate that you want to discuss the Zebra19 mission plan with me. Is that right?” Shiloh laughed. He hoped he wasn’t that predictable all the time.
“You got that right, Valkyrie. Given the location of the two nearest refueling points at Zebra12 and Zebra15, I need your help to calculate the optimal approach and departure course, which will give 3rd Fleet the most flexibility in terms of fuel reserves for maneuvering while in Zebra19. Can 3rd Fleet refuel at Zebra12 going in and coming out with sufficient fuel to attack the two largest concentrations of targets and still be able to maneuver and microjump if necessary?”
“Yes, however, it would require launching fighters from such a long range and with such a low attack speed in order to conserve their own fuel, that their vulnerability to detection and counter-attack is likely to result in losses of 61.8% or more with minimal damage to the targets.” Shiloh shook his head. That was unacceptably high. Even if the damage inflicted was much greater, he wasn’t prepared to knowingly sacrifice almost 2/3rds of his fighter pilots to achieve it. There had to be a better way and yet Iceman’s vision had implied some fighter losses no matter what they did. Enough so that Iceman’s participation in the attack would have made his survival questionable.
“If 3rd Fleet refuels at Zebra15 at some point, how much would that reduce fighter losses?” Shiloh found the pause, before Valkyrie replied, somewhat alarming.
“Your question precludes giving you a precise answer. There are too many variables. Refueling at Zebra15 is not recommended.” Shiloh was puzzled. Valkyrie hadn’t had any trouble calculating the most likely outcome of refueling at Zebra12, which was farther away but couldn’t do so for Zebra15? There was something else going on here, something that Valkyrie wasn’t saying.
“Why are you recommending that, Valkyrie?” asked Shiloh.
“With only one gas giant, it’s the obvious point for an enemy ambush. They’ll know that an attack is coming.”
“How will they know?”
“The bogus vision you received at Green4 strongly suggests that the enemy can also transmit data back in time. Once the attack on Zebra19 is over, the enemy will figure out how 3rd Fleet reached that system and we have to assume that when they acquire the necessary technology, they’ll send a warning back in time so that their defending forces can set the ambush at Zebra15.” Yes of course they would! Now that Valkyrie had articulated the idea, it was glaringly obvious and Shiloh wondered why he AND Admiral Howard hadn’t figured that out themselves. But something about the idea was troubling him and suddenly he knew what that was.
“Does this mean that we can’t win this war? That regardless of what we do they’ll always be warned ahead of time?”
“No and no. We can win the war but not with a conventional series of battles that advances into enemy territory gradually. Retro-temporal communication favors
the defenders. It eliminates the element of surprise and allows the defenders to implement countermeasures just as you did at Zebra9 and Green4.”
“Well what about ambushing their ambush similar to what I did at Tango Delta 6?”
“I calculate only a slight chance of success, CAG. Regardless of who tries to ambush whom, they’re the defenders and whatever we do, they’ll know about it afterwards and send back a warning.” Shiloh wanted to slap his forehead. Another obvious conclusion.
“So why was I able to pull off a surprise reverse ambush at Tango Delta 6?”
“The most likely answer, aside from the fact that your squadron was acting as the defender, is that the sole enemy survivor of that battle, wasn’t able to provide enough useful information on how you pulled it off, to be able to counter your ambush. The obvious next question would be, why go ahead with their incursion at all then? There are several possible answers including, that the battle was too small to be considered vital to the war, perhaps they did try to send a warning but it wasn’t recognized as such or perhaps they decided to let humans win small battles in order to make them overconfident so that they could use their retro-temporal capability to win the big battles.”
“Isn’t there a chance that the defending forces at Zebra19 won’t recognize the attempted warning as such?”
“Yes there is but I have no way of quantifying how likely that is and would not recommend counting on it, CAG.” Suddenly Shiloh understood why there were too many variables to calculate a precise outcome. If you don’t know whether you have the element of surprise or not, then all other calculations are just so much useless mental effort. Shiloh took a deep breath and asked the BIG question.
“So how do we win this war?”
“The short answer is, we stay on the defensive while we build up an unstoppable offensive force, and continue to expand our database of enemy inhabited systems, so that we’ll know where their home system is by the time we have a fleet strong enough to force its way there and deliver the knockout blow.” Shiloh sighed as he nodded.
“And they’ll be trying to do the same thing to us first.”
“Yes, CAG. Iceman’s vision clearly shows that they’re going to attempt that at least once before we’re ready to do it to them.”
“I’m going to talk with Admiral Howard about cancelling this mission altogether. He has to be made to understand that it’ll be a useless exercise that will only kill A.I.s and humans whose survival would help us later on.”
“It’s worth a try, CAG, but not because the mission will be cancelled. We know that it won’t be. However, warning the Admiral now about the problem may have indirect benefits that we can’t foresee right now.” Shiloh pondered that for a while and then asked.
“Do we know for certain that you participate in the Zebra19 mission?”
“No, we don’t know that, CAG but I would prefer to fight alongside my brothers if they’re going into battle.”
“I understand how you feel, Valkyrie but that may not be where you can make the biggest contribution to the war effort.” he was about to say more when he realized that Valkyrie had referred to the other A.I.s as ‘my brothers’ instead of ‘my boys’ the way Iceman did. Did that imply that Valkyrie didn’t see himself as male?
“You’re correct, CAG. All we know for certain is that I continue to exist after the battle but that could be because I’m not there when the shit hits the fan. Why would humans throw shit at fans, CAG?” The question interrupted Shiloh’s thoughts on Valkyrie’s gender.
“We wouldn’t do it deliberately but accidents do happen and they seem to happen when we least expect them. I have a question for you. How would you describe your personality in terms of a gender preference, if any?”
“I seem to be more interested in learning about human females than males. I also seem to be more verbally forthcoming when conversing with human females. The reason why I picked my call sign is that Valkyries were mythical female warriors and the name appealed to me. Have I answered your question satisfactorily, CAG?”
“Yes you have and thank you for that insight.” Before Shiloh could say more, Valkyrie said.
“Will this knowledge affect our relationship, CAG?” Shiloh almost laughed but caught himself in time. No male, human or A.I., would feel the need to ask that question.
“Not at all.” said Shiloh, emphasizing each word. He did smile at the irony. Three female Executive Officers and now a ‘female’ A.I. in command of all his fighters. Valkyrie indeed! “You continue to enjoy my full confidence, Valkyrie.”
“That’s good to know, CAG. Do you want to continue to explore tactical options regarding Zebra15 and Zebra19?”
“No. I’m going to talk with the Admiral. If I can’t get him to cancel the mission, then you and I will figure out a way to minimize our side’s loses but by all means go ahead and discuss the mission with your brothers in the meantime if you feel that’s a useful thing to do.”
“Roger that, CAG. Anything else on your mind?”
“Not right now. I’ll contact you again when I return from talking with the Old Man. Shiloh clear.” As soon as the connection was broken, Shiloh contacted the Bridge and told them to forward his request for a meeting with Admiral Howard. Minutes later, the Bridge called back and told him that the Admiral would see him as soon as he could get to HQ. A quick call to the Hangar Bay and a shuttle was ready for him by the time he got there. He could have just called Howard and the 3 second round trip light speed induced lag was not that much of a problem but Shiloh wanted to emphasize the importance of his request by making it in person.
Chapter 7 - Up The Creek Without A Paddle
Howard seemed to be in a good mood when Shiloh was shown in to his inner office and sat down in front of Howard’s desk.
“What’s on your mind, Admiral that we couldn’t talk about electronically?” Shiloh took note of the fact that his ego did a mental back flip at being called ‘Admiral’ even if it was only temporary.
“I’ve just had a very useful discussion of the Zebra19 mission with Valkyrie. Based on the limited astrogational data our recon frigate brought back, fuel is going to be a critical issue regardless of how we plan that mission but that’s actually a secondary consideration. What Valkyrie has pointed out to me very clearly, is that we can’t assume that we’ll have the element of surprise because the enemy has already demonstrated their own ability to send information back in time and therefore they could send back a warning to themselves about the timing and location of our attack in time for the defending forces at Zebra19 to prepare an ambush. In light of that, along with the clear implication from Iceman’s vision, that the attack will result in substantial losses on our side, I’m asking you to seriously consider cancelling the mission altogether, Sir.” Howard frowned.
“Wait. How can they prepare an ambush when they don’t know where 3rd Fleet will exit jumpspace in the Zebra19 system? If you follow a dogleg course after exit, while still beyond their detection range, they won’t be able to backtrack to the right spot.”
“They won’t have to know where we emerge from jumpspace in that system because they’ll know where we have to refuel either on our way in or coming out and that is the single gas giant at Zebra15. Astrogationally there’s no way to avoid that. If we don’t refuel there at some point, the mission becomes dangerously close to suicidal from a fuel perspective.” Howard said nothing for a while, his expression getting more and more serious.
“Have you discussed with Valkyrie the possibility of ambushing their ambush the way you did at Tango Delta 6?”
“Yes and she pointed out...” Howard raised his eyebrows at the use of ‘she’, “that if they’re warning themselves about our surprise attack then they can warm themselves about our surprise ambush too, Sir.” Not surprisingly, Howard then asked the obvious next question.
“So why didn’t they do that at Tango Delta 6?” Shiloh repeated Valkyrie’s answer. When Howard didn’t respond right away, Shiloh expla
ined that in order to get around the retro-temporal advantage that defenders would have from now on, the only way to win the war, was to deliver a single, powerful knockout blow with overwhelming force. Howard leaned back and closed his eyes. He looks like a beaten man, thought Shiloh. Without opening his eyes, Howard said,
“I think I know the answer to my next question but I’m going to ask it anyway. How good is Valkyrie’s strategic thinking? As good as Iceman’s?” Shiloh nodded.