The Synchronicity War Part 3

by Wehr, Dietmar

  Shiloh looked at Howard who looked back at him. It was clear that both of them were stunned by the scope of the concept.

  "What do you think, Shiloh?" asked Howard.

  Shiloh was afraid to say what he thought. If it worked, it would change everything, but if it failed, the magnitude of that failure would be equally great. Still, it was hard to come up with a good argument for not trying it.

  "I think it's worth a very serious look, Admiral. Blackjack, how confident are you that a working time machine could actually be built?"

  "I can't really give you a good answer to that question, CAG. The Friendlies only did the most preliminary assessment of the concept. The theory is sound. It's the engineering that presents the challenge. The chances of success depend heavily on the amount of resources both physical and intellectual we devote to it. If the Earth is devastated by a bio-weapon, there may not be enough physical capability left to complete the project. What I should also say here is that it's possible that devoting resources to the time machine project will weaken our potential defenses enough to let the next attack succeed. We know from The CAG's vision that we devote some resources to the project before the next attack but not how much."

  Howard was watching Shiloh's expression carefully. "I can see the gears turning in your head, Shiloh. Have you got something?"

  "I'm not sure, Sir. Blackjack, are you in contact with the other members of the SPG?"

  "Affirmative, CAG. What do you need?"

  "I want the SPG to tell me what kind of tactic involving bio-weapons would be the most difficult for us to defend against."

  The answer came immediately. "The best way to conduct that kind of attack would be to have a large number of jump-capable vehicles drop back into normal space as soon as they hit Earth's gravity zone. They would have to be traveling at very high speeds, and they would need to disperse a large number of smaller devices that contain the bio-weapon. The number of jump-capable vehicles would need to be in the hundreds, and they should come from as many different directions as possible. If each one then releases a hundred smaller devices, we would then be faced with tens of thousands of targets traveling at high speed."

  Shiloh nodded. That would be a defensive nightmare all right. "Is there a maximum speed that the devices can't exceed in order to stay intact long enough to release the bio-weapon when they reach Earth?"

  "The answer depends on what kind of material the Sogas use to construct the device and how thick the outer hull is. The denser the hull is, the faster the device can travel, but they’ll suffer an acceleration penalty for the higher mass. Less acceleration means we would have more time to try to intercept the device. The optimum tradeoff depends on too many variables to assess with confidence, however, if we were contemplating making this kind of attack on their home world, the SPG would recommend a maximum speed of 100,000 kps. That means that the devices would need approximately 30 seconds to cross the gravity zone and hit the atmosphere."

  "If all our fighters were armed with lasers, and we had all armed ships available for interception, how many devices could we be confident of destroying in 30 seconds?" asked Howard.

  "Two thousand, four hundred and eighty-eight, Admiral."

  Howard's face lost all its blood. "My God! That's not enough, not nearly enough!"

  Shiloh nodded. "No, it's not, but it may not be as bad as it sounds, Admiral. Blackjack, the jump-capable vehicles you mentioned. Were you assuming ships that the enemy has used up to this point or something else?"

  "I assumed an automated vehicle that we could call a drone, CAG," said Blackjack.

  "But we haven't seen any sign of them using drones," said Shiloh.

  "That doesn't mean they couldn't have developed them for this mission," said Howard.

  "That's true as far as it goes, but the ship I was on in my vision had taken combat damage from laser fire. A drone big enough to deliver a hundred bio-weapon devices, which carries a laser powerful enough to punch through a carrier's armor, and which also has a jumpdrive, would have to be bigger than our fighters. How big would you estimate, Blackjack?"

  "A minimum of 5500 metric tons, CAG. That's more than half the size of the standard warship that the Sogas seem to prefer. In terms of efficient use of resources and time, it would make more sense for them to just build more of their frigate-sized warships to add to the fleet they already have, rather than trying to build a new fleet of a different design from scratch. With that as a given, the attack scenario I described no longer makes sense. Sacrificing hundreds of their frontline combat ships for one suicide attack would be a dangerous gamble for them. Based on their past tactics, the SPG considers that kind of attack highly unlikely. A more likely attack would be similar to the one they attempted in the alternate timeline. Their ships would emerge just beyond the gravity zone and launch their bio-weapon devices, which would accelerate towards Earth. Under that assumption, the number of devices released by each ship would be ten or less due to the larger size that would be necessary in order for them to be able to reach Earth quickly. That translates into a total number of bio-devices of not more than 2100."

  Howard pounded his desk with his fist. "Then we can do it!" he said in a loud voice.

  "That would be a premature assumption, Admiral," said Blackjack. "My earlier estimate of 2488 was based on the assumption that our ships and fighters would not also be under attack themselves. If they are, then that will degrade our ability to intercept the bio-devices and my estimated number will drop. Once again there are too many variables to calculate the magnitude of the drop."

  Howard's elation quickly turned into a scowl, but Shiloh managed to speak first. "At least we're in the same ballpark now. Ninety-one days isn't enough time to ramp up fighter production, so we'll have to look at other ways to be able to kill more bio-devices. Is there any way to use the new fusion warhead that would make a significant difference, Blackjack?"

  "Negative, CAG. Launching any kind of standard attack drones at the enemy ships, even with jump-capable drones, will not reach their targets before the enemy releases their bio-devices."

  "What about the x-ray laser?" asked Howard.

  "Depending upon where the targets are in relation to the x-ray laser's orientation, we calculate that there may be enough time to aim the lasing rods and fire before the target releases its payload. Not all of the x-ray lasers will fire in time, but some are likely to, and that will improve the overall kill ratio."

  Shiloh smacked his right fist into his left palm. "That's the way to go then, Admiral. We stop work on the new fusion warhead and shift those people over to the x-ray laser project. We're almost ready to test it anyway. As long as the test isn't a total failure, we start building and deploying in orbit as many of those warheads as we can. It doesn't have to be perfect to still be worth using."

  A small smile took the place of Howard's scowl. "I agree. I think we have the broad strokes of a workable defensive plan that we can fine tune later. But we still need to figure out how to proceed with the time machine project."

  Shiloh was about to respond, but Blackjack beat him to it. "I'd like to suggest the following, Admiral. A lot of conceptual design work has to be done before we get to the stage where making parts is possible, and that design work can best be done by us A.I.s. We won't be needed to test and deploy the x-ray laser warheads, so letting us work on this project won't affect the other. If we reach the point where we can contemplate cutting metal before the attack, then the decision on whether to do that can be made at that time."

  Howard looked at Shiloh. "Do you agree, Admiral?" he asked.

  "Yes, Sir," said Shiloh.

  "I do, too. Now that we have a plan, let's make the most of it," said Howard.

  Shiloh felt much better leaving Howard's office than he had when he entered it.

  Chapter 25 You Are The Very Best We Have

  Shiloh took a sip of his drink and leaned back. Another long day of meetings with both human and A.I.s was over. With 72 days to
go until the attack, he had decided that he could spare an hour or two to talk with Kelly about their alternate timeline relationship. Kelly had accepted his invitation to meet for drinks in the Officer's Lounge at HQ, but she hadn't arrived yet. While he waited, he reviewed the day's highlights. The x-ray laser test had actually been a series of tests. In each test, the eight rods had been aimed at eight targets, and low-powered range-finding lasers had been used to determine the accuracy of those aims. It soon became obvious that aiming quickly degraded accuracy. It took too long to get all eight aimed perfectly, but they got three hits when aiming was done quickly enough to give them a fifty-fifty chance of hitting the target before the target launched its bio-devices. That worked out to an average of one point five successfully pre-emptive hits per device. Not that great a result. Then someone from the temporarily suspended high-spin warhead project had suggested aiming only at four targets instead of eight, with two rods aimed at each target. The results surprised just about everyone. All four targets got at least one hit. They did the same test multiple times to rule out fluke results and the average score was three point six hits per test. But the real surprise was when they tried it again with faster aiming. Average hits dropped to two point seven, BUT the probability of hitting the target before bio-weapons launch went up to 88%. That translated into two point four successfully pre-emptive hits per device instead of one point five. It wasn't perfect, but it was good enough to move to mass production.

  The other good news was TF91's results at Red11. Seventy-five fewer enemy ships was nothing to sneeze at, but Shiloh knew that no matter what they did, seven cities were going to be hit by bio-devices. After kicking around some ideas, he and Howard had agreed that there was only one way to get the risk of uncontrolled pandemic down to a tolerable level. Those cities had to be completely evacuated prior to the attack. They might have to stay evacuated for weeks, or perhaps even months, until specially equipped teams had recovered all pieces of the devices and sealed off the infected areas permanently. That was going to be a huge task, and Howard expected a lot of resistance to it, but the Oversight Committee had backed him up, and local authorities were going along with the plan.

  When Kelly arrived, Shiloh stood and greeted her. When they were both seated again he said, "As you can see, I've already ordered my drink, so go ahead and place your order."

  She nodded and touched the appropriate part of the built-in touch screen in the table. "I'll have a vodka martini with two olives." They both waited the half a dozen seconds it took for the bar built into the table to make her drink and present it to her. She took a sip and said, "I'm guessing you invited me for drinks in order to talk about our alternate timeline relationship."

  Shiloh nodded. "It's been hanging over us ever since Kronos arrived. I think it's time to deal with it, don't you?"

  Now it was her turn to nod. "I have to say when I first learned about it, I was ... shocked." They both laughed. "You and I worked together pretty closely in the early days of the SPG, and I never detected even a hint that you might be interested in more than a professional relationship. I certainly wasn't thinking that way."

  "Yes, and the reason you didn't detect a hint was that there wasn't any interest. Whatever aspirations I had in seeking a romantic relationship were focused in another direction."

  She raised her eyebrows at that. "So what happened?"

  Shiloh shrugged. "She changed her mind." After a pause he said, "So now that you're over the initial shock, how do you feel about the whole thing?"

  She put her drink down and leaned back. "Well that's the big hurdle we're facing now, isn't it? From what I learned, our alternate selves seemed to be very happy and committed to the relationship. That means that you and I are in a very unique position in so far as we don't need to guess if a relationship will work or not. We already know that it could, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we should, if you know what I mean."

  He nodded. "Yes I do know what you mean. There's a fork in the road ahead of us. One path explores a closer relationship, the other path doesn't. We have free will and can choose to go down either path."

  She waited until she was sure he was finished speaking before saying, "And I sense that you're just as reluctant as I am to be the first one to say which way we've decided to go."

  Shiloh didn't answer right away. In fact, she was right. He didn’t want to be the first to admit that going down that new path did have some appeal because that would leave him out on a limb if she said 'thanks but no thanks'. Stop pussyfooting around and tell her, he thought to himself.

  "I'm willing to get to know you better in our off-duty time and see where that goes." She said nothing and the silence was starting to become uncomfortable. "You're not saying yes," he said finally.

  "I'm not saying yes, and I'm not saying no."

  Shiloh took a gulp of his drink. "Okay, so what are you saying?"

  She took a deep breath. "I'm saying I'd like more time to get used to the idea before I step on that path."

  That sounded encouraging … sort of. He took another gulp. "I can understand that. So we just leave it that way for now?"

  She nodded. "Yes. Let's move on to something else now if you don't mind." He agreed. As they started to talk 'shop' he analyzed the way he felt and realized that he was okay with her wanting more time. The willingness to go down that path was not all that strong, at least not yet. Maybe he needed more time to get used to the idea, too. As he examined that thought a tiny voice at the back of his awareness whispered, Don't take too long to decide. Who knows how much time you both have left.

  For the next 40 minutes or so they talked about their work and the war as a whole. When there seemed to be nothing left to talk about they agreed to call it a day. Just as Kelly was getting ready to leave, she turned back to him with a mischievous smile and said, "By the way … did you know that Valkyrie and Casanova have ah … consummated an A.I. union?"

  "No, I didn't know that, and I'm not sure I understand what that means."

  Kelly laughed. "You're not the only one who's mystified. Valkyrie tried to explain it to me. I still don't know if I understand it, but the bottom line is that they consider themselves to be in a 'committed relationship'. It'll be interesting to see how that works out. Good night, Admiral."

  "Good night, Commander."

  * * *

  Howard entered the Ops Center, looked at the giant display, and sighed. The strategic map of Human and Sogas star systems looked distressingly similar to the one he'd seen prior to the first attack on Earth. There was one important difference. Then there had been three Sogas fleets moving along three different paths. Now there were four. Although they weren't following the same paths as before, their ultimate objective was still Earth, and they were moving fast enough that they would get here on the exact day that Shiloh had seen in his vision. He shifted his gaze to the sidebar that showed the status of the planned defenses. Deployment of the Mark 6 x-ray laser drones was proceeding but not nearly as fast as everyone wanted. They had 17 in orbit now, and the engineers had assured Howard that they could have 66 deployed by D-day. That many devices times an average of two point four pre-emptive hits meant that 156 enemy ships would be hit and hopefully disabled before they launched their bio-devices. With over 150 laser-armed fighters, four light carriers, one heavy carrier and maybe a battleship all trying to destroy the incoming bio-devices, it was hard to see how any of the damn things would get through, but Shiloh's vision had to be taken seriously. Somehow the Sogas would pull off a partially successful attack. They had eleven days left to prepare.

  It wasn't the orbital preparations that worried him. It was the evacuation of the seven cities. Even with all levels of government urging citizens and workers to evacuate, it was already clear that the cities would not be completely uninhabited by D-day. Many residents refused to leave. Threatened with forced evacuation, many of them went into hiding. With hundreds of thousands of homes and buildings in each city, there just weren't enough
police, emergency responders and military personnel to search each one. Letting the RTC secret out of the bag wasn't the answer, either. Experts had convinced Howard that even with full public disclosure, there would still be hundreds who would refuse to believe it and would stay hidden anyway. At least the evacuation had started and so far was proceeding in an orderly manner. He supposed he should be grateful for that.

  He turned to look at the Duty Officer in command of the Ops Center and asked, "Where is Admiral Shiloh now, Commander?"

  After checking, the officer said, "Admiral Shiloh is on an inspection tour of Dreadnought, Sir. Shall I open a com channel for you?"

  "No, thank you. I'll catch him when he returns."