“Obviously, intent is difficult to confirm. But as for the functions of the missiles—are they operational. General?”
“Prime Minister, the missiles are in perfect working order. Once manufactured they do not, after all, break. The bunker was climate-controlled, leading us to the knowledge that the missile-computer systems were being attended to.
Furthermore, these weapons are not launched from silos as Minister Yoshida mentioned but from trucks. The missiles were preloaded onto launcher subassemblies inside the bunker. We can go back and review the disk if there is any doubt of that. The subassemblies need only be lifted onto a launcher truck to be ready to fire. A simple flatbed truck will suffice.”
“So allow me to review. General. You are certain these missiles work?”
“I am, sir,”
“And they have launchers?”
“They do.”
“And the launchers will work?”
“We are certain of it.” The meeting went on for another hour while the opinions of the men in the room moved closer to the idea of a military strike, in spite of Yoshida’s dissenting feelings. Finally General Gotoh made a move to review the arguments.
“So, gentlemen, if I might take this moment to summarize.
I think we have reached agreement on several points. First, that there are offensive missiles in Greater Manchuria. Second, that these missiles are nucleartipped. Third, that the units are operational. Fourth, the missiles are twenty-four minutes’ flight time from Tokyo.
And therefore, fifth, if President Len has an intention of launching an attack on Japan, he will be successful.
Tokyo will look worse than 1945. Worse than Hiroshima and Nagasaki after the atomic bombs were dropped. To put it in perspective, the Hiroshima bomb had the equivalent of twenty thousand tons of TNT explosive. An SS34 has over two million tons. Twenty well-targeted SS34s would take our nation back two thousand years. Our descendants would live off whatever little land is not contaminated by nuclear radiation. Our promises to the people that Japan would never again suffer this humiliation and death will be turned to ashes along with the world’s most advanced cities. On this, we are agreed, are we not?”
Kurita kept his face neutral. The men had agreed on the first four points. The fifth was Gotoh’s opinion based on the consequences of a nuclear attack. But what he had said would need to be covered at some point, and perhaps it would be best to signify agreement and get the discussion of the memories of being bombed with nuclear weapons behind them. Since Japan remained the only nation to have been targeted and attacked by nuclear bombs, the national consciousness had remained sensitive to the issue. The antinuclear protests in Asia during the past decades had been heavily funded by Japan, and had succeeded in spite of rumors in the Western press that Japan itself was working on a new type of nuclear weapon.
Kurita began working his way around the table, asking each man present for an opinion, bringing out each minister’s specialty. The minister of finance, Haruna Sugimoto, was asked what effect the weapon’s presence alone had on the economy of Japan, and then what would happen to the economy if the SS-34s ever landed on Japanese soil. The MITI minister was asked about the effects on industry and how long it would take to rebuild the nation should it come under attack. MacHiie was asked about the effects of an attack on the world’s information network, and he had replied in much the same voice as did the MITI and finance ministers.
When all had spoken except Adm. Akagi Tanaka, who was not involved in the actual decision-making process but was present to give the council the benefit of his naval knowledge, Kurita stood.
“We have taken many hours to understand and explore the data before us—the fact of the existence of the SS-34 missiles and exactly what that means to Japan and the world around us. We now know the consequences of the use of those weapons, and we realize that those consequences are indeed grave. So grave that we are moved to ask the next question—what action do we now take?”
“Mr. Prime Minister, aren’t we forgetting something?”
The room turned toward Foreign Minister Yoshida.
Kurita bit the inside of his lip, but turned toward Yoshida and allowed him to speak.
“We have spoken about the weapons. We have spoken of what they can do. But for many decades we have been surrounded by such weapons. Before the revolution China had many such instruments of war, some no doubt reserved for Tokyo. Who could doubt Soviet Russia had even more? And the ships of the United States fleet that docked here for so many decades until the trade war, how many of them had nuclear missiles in their holds and magazines?
“But now, a small nation apparently has a cache of nuclear missiles, and the gods alone know how old they are. But I am willing to agree that they will work, so long as this body agrees that we know nothing of the intent of the owners of the missiles. China and Russia had no love for Japan, and we lived with the threat. The United States was supposedly an ally, and we lived with their weapons of destruction, even though they were the ones who murdered our children in the war.” Kurita was surprised that Yoshida had righteous anger in his repertory, but then realized it was another diplomatic tool, just like a smile or handshake. “Yet now a nation that has offered no proof of hostile intent, no desire to hurt us, just a desire to live, just as we desire to, has managed to come into the possession of weapons of nuclear war. And while I agree that they are dirty and cursed machines, they cannot harm us without a malevolent nation to use them. And no facts have crossed this table attesting to the intent of the Greater Manchurians. I propose we simply ask the Greater Manchurians to remove the weapons. If they do, we can sell them military hardware, helping our economy and keeping them secure so they won’t have to rely on the missiles. If they keep the weapons, we can expose them to the world and ask for UN help. Eventually the warheads would be turned over and destroyed in accordance with the Nuclear Free Zone Treaty. The crisis would be averted and we would lead our lives as before. Amend that—better than before, because by our actions we will show the world our moral character. And that may help to end this destructive trade embargo by the West.” There was silence in the room for some minutes after Yoshida spoke. “Mr. Prime Minister, I’d like to say a few words, if I may.”
“Please go ahead, General Gotoh.”
“Minister Yoshida is entirely correct in his concerns about the intentions of Greater Manchuria. His proposal to ask the Greater Manchurians to remove the weapons has merit.” Kurita did not expect an opening toward Yoshida from his opposite number in the council. “In fact, what we are proposing has elements of Minister Yoshida’s idea.”
Gotoh had the room’s members entirely focused, in spite of the fact that the meeting had gone into its third hour. “There are several possible uses for these missiles. As we have discussed, one use is for a preemptive strike against Japan. But another purpose is deterrence.
Holding back the aggressions of the Russians, the East Chinese and the West Chinese, and theoretically the aggressions of Japan. I am getting ahead of our meeting agenda, and for that I apologize. The next order of business was to be—what should Japan do about these missiles? I will introduce that question now, because it addresses Minister Yoshida’s concerns. “Let us assume for a moment that the missiles are present for the purposes of deterrence. I personally do not believe this, because a nuclear deterrent only works if the enemy knows the weapons are there and operational. These missiles are secret. But let us go beyond that and recognize that there is a way for us to neutralize these missiles without the world knowing about them. We can surgically knock out these missiles while still letting Greater Manchuria bluff her neighbors into thinking she has a nuclear strike force. “Again, I am arguing a point of logic I do not believe, because Greater Manchuria has kept these missiles a deep secret, but we can say for Minister Yoshida that there could always be plans to announce the presence of these missiles, turning them ”nto a deterrent force. We have a way of striking these weapons so that they will be neu
tralized forever, in a way that there will be no telltale sign that the neutralization has come from us.” The room was silent. Kurita addressed Gotoh. “General, you seem to be saying that we can blow up these missiles and destroy them, but in such a way that no one will link the raid to Japan, is that correct?”
“Very close, sir. We can strike the missiles and make them useless. There will be no explosions. The missiles will not be physically destroyed but they will no longer be offensive weapons.”
“You have a way to destroy these missiles without physical destruction? I think we are all confused, General.” Gotoh lowered the projection screen and tapped into the disk player. “This disk doesn’t have a soundtrack, gentlemen,” Gotoh said, stepping up to the screen with a pointer. A computer image of a cruise missile materialized on the screen. The missile grew until its nose cone filled the image and the weapon became transparent, revealing numerous components inside. “In the last four years we have perfected a new weapon that causes destruction without blowing anything up. We call this missile the Hiroshima. The warhead itself is called the Scorpion. The warhead components are separate chemicals and gases that are dispersed into a cloud and react in midair to form a polymer emulsion—a glue, if you will. This glue rains down on the land below and adheres to every surface. Mixed in with the glue is this substance shown in the blue container. These are fine filings of plutonium, one of the most poisonous substances on the planet. The glue liquid and plutonium form a matrix that contaminates the area below the activation of the warhead.
The effective zone of contamination varies with glue load, plutonium weight and missile altitude. We can dial in the area of contamination.
Once contaminated, the area below, while physically the same, must be abandoned. Any human life in the effective zone dies from radiation effects. Other personnel entering the scene will die. An on-scene commander would soon deduce the cause of deaths in the effective zone, and the area would be cordoned off. Decontamination is not possible. The glue is essentially permanent, it doesn’t wash off with water or chemicals. Nothing short of scraping every square millimeter with a chisel can clean up the area. If this weapon detonates over the Tamga bunker, the area will be condemned for many years and use of the weapons will be impossible.” The picture darkened and the screen retracted into the ceiling above. “We plan to deploy a Hiroshima missile with a Scorpion warhead such as this against the Tamga weapons depot.” Foreign Minister Yoshida shook his head. “So you plan to deploy a nuclear weapon against the Greater Manchurians because they have nuclear weapons?”
“No,
Minister Yoshida, that is not true. This warhead is not a nuclear weapon.”
“It causes widespread radioactive contamination, killing the targeted city with radiation poisoning. It is a nuclear weapon.”
“No. It is a plutonium poison weapon, and yes, it kills. But the target is not a city, it is a bunker. Anyone inside will be a professional soldier taking the risks that soldiers take. We estimate only two hundred casualties.”
“Our people died at Hiroshima and Nagasaki from radiation.
No Japanese weapon should exist that does this. General Gotoh.”
“Our people also died in the Pacific from bullets and bombs and fires.
Minister Yoshida. That has not stopped us from using and making bullets and bombs and incendiary devices. All this talk about the nuclear destruction in 1945 has to stop. That was three generations ago. It was war. That is what happens in a war. This scenario is very different. We are surgically removing a threat. There will be deaths, but no spectacular flaming mushroom cloud, no babies dying in their mother’s arms, no shadows of pedestrians carved into the walls of buildings, no walls of flame for thirty miles from ground zero. It will not be a pretty scene inside the effective zone, but for this operation the effective zone will be a few hundred meters in diameter.”
“A practical question. General,” Kurita said. “The weapons are stored inside a bunker. How will this glue matrix contaminate them under the cover of the bunker roof?”
“First, the entire complex will be contaminated. No one will be able to get close, even if the weapons themselves are uncontaminated. But the ventilation systems will spread enough of the glue and plutonium to contaminate the surfaces of the interior. We have done tests. The missiles will be rendered useless.” Gotoh went on to explain technical details of the weapon, comfortable now that he was discussing machines instead of morality. After he had spoken for another twenty minutes, uninterrupted by Yoshida, Kurita called for a break. The council members filed out to consider. When the members returned, the meeting began where it had left off. “So you believe an attack with these weapons is truly justified?” Yoshida asked Kurita directly. “It is not just I, Minister Yoshida,” Kurita replied to the foreign minister.
“The council members believe it to be justified. If I understand the thinking of the group, they feel that the Greater Manchurian weapons are sufficiently offensive that their mere existence in an operational status, and within the unstable rogue government of this state, merit the contemplation of a military strike to make the missiles ineffective.
You have brought up doubt that the Greater Manchurians intend to use the missiles. We share your troubled feelings, Yoshidasan. This will be the weightiest decision made by our nation since the preventive strike on the Americans at Pearl Harbor, and you are correct that it should be considered cautiously. But let me add that in war, or a prelude to war, there is much uncertainty. Allow me to liken this most serious matter to a chess game in which the playing board is partially obscured. Or to a game of poker in which the opponent’s entire hand is obscured. We have peeked under the handkerchief hiding the board. Minister. We have seen several of our opponent’s cards. We know things about him while he knows little about us. We must not waste this advantage. “However, let me address one of your concerns. That of the reaction of Greater Manchuria should we attack their missiles. We have discussed a covert attack, and letting the Greater Manchurians guess who did the work. We have debated, the impact of Japanese denials of Greater Manchurian accusations. We believe that if Greater Manchuria cried to the Western press about being attacked by Japan, the West would turn against us, in war as well as in commerce. And so far there have been no solutions to these problems. You do not want to attack Greater Manchuria’s territory because they have not attacked us. We are worried that after the attack Greater Manchuria may use evidence of the strike against Japan. I have an answer to both problems. “We should commission a diplomatic mission to go along with the strike. Minister Yoshida, your ambassador to Greater Manchuria—what is his name?”
“Nakamoto.”
“Of course. Your Ambassador Nakamoto goes to President Len and tells him that Japan knows of his nuclear missiles and believes them to be offensive. Len will deny this. Nakamoto will say that Len must sign a nonaggression treaty with Japan in which Japan will control the missiles. Len will refuse. Nakamoto will demand that a Japanese military detail must be put in Tamga to oversee the depot and control the missiles. Len will again refuse. At this point the diplomatic delegation will depart to call Tokyo. That is when the strike will be executed. The diplomatic delegation will gather data transmitted by Tokyo and once the strike is a success, will meet again with Len. He will be shown the film of the bombing from the missile target camera. His own people will confirm for him what happened at Tamga. Nakamoto will tell Len that his refusal to help us led to the strike. But now Nakamoto will also tell him that Japan will keep the strike a secret—so that the missiles remain a deterrent to his immediate neighbors. In exchange, Japan and Greater Manchuria will sign the nonaggression treaty that he initially refused to sign. In the end,
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