Cornucopia

by John Francis Kinsella

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  John Francis was met by a constant stream of criticism of the West from Ekaterina's friends and acquaintances. Of course he understood defending their country and leader was normal, considering the constant flow of news pumped by RT, the state controlled media machine, designed for the eyes and ears of the Russian public, accusing the West and more especially the US of conspiring against Russia and its friends.

  Muscovites were naturally proud of their achievements following the chaotic period that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union. They were better-off materially speaking: consumers, like the Westerners at whom they now aimed their anger.

  Not all members of the EU were in step with sanctions imposed by Brussels. One was Latvia, which continued to function as an offshore banking centre for Russia. There, Russian owned banks continued to flourish inappropriately aided by the BERD, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, in which the US was the largest shareholder.

  There were however Russians who harboured doubts about the Kremlin’s direction. Internet provided a window on the outside world for those who spoke English and since the rise in relative prosperity many ordinary Russians travelled abroad for their vacations.

  As Putin’s confrontation with the West accentuated, the rouble declined and inflation climbed, doubts grew. Russians became cautious and introspective. Those with the means chose expatriation and headed for London, Berlin and New York. The more wealthy bought properties in London and other safe havens, and those who could acquired a second passport from compliant foreign governments.

  Francis detected a sense of resentment in the Russians he met. In their search for scapegoats they pointed to Ukrainians, sanctions, dissidents, gays, and a conspiracy to destroy Russian oil and gas exports engineered by Wall Street and the CIA.

  The chief cause was the West’s refusal to accept Moscow’s annexation of the Crimea, an action which few Russians had opposed. Ekaterina described the fear of ostracism by those who questioned Putin’s vision of a Greater Russia in a society nostalgic for the USSR. Broader minded Russians saw the Kremlin caught in a quandary, uncertain of the way forward, its plans frustrated by falling oil prices, sanctions, inflation, devaluation.

  The cost of the Crimea, its support of Ukrainian separatists and the war it was fighting on behalf of Bashar Assad’s besieged government in Damascus bore heavily on Russia’s finances.

  Putin had lost a series of bets, he had persistently backed the wrong horse, and his hold on power weakened. Russians could not eat glory, they needed jobs, stability and prosperity and their faith in their leader had its limits in a world where news and opinion travelled at Internet speed.

  DIVERSIFICATION

  Tom Barton had diversified his investments by placing money in Colombian assets. There were numerous long term opportunities in oil, mining and minerals; the country was blessed with vast coal deposits along with oil and gemstones. He was however troubled by the long-term prospects of fossil fuels as public awareness grew on questions of environment and climate change.

  The pollution of the environment, especially atmospheric pollution, caused by fossil fuels in and around the world’s great cities, could be seen with the naked eye wherever one looked, more especially in China’s huge cities.

  In spite of that oil, gas or coal would continue to be present for a long time to come before inevitably falling into disfavour as other choices such as solar energy became economically viable.

  Barton did not want to be left behind by a changing world, he wanted to assure the continued fortune of his new family. Starting with the new lithium deposits discovered in Chile and the Andes. He had seen how the use of solar energy had exploded along with the possibility of storing energy through the development and use of lithium batteries.

  For all that Barton’s faith in US shale oil had not been shaken by setback following the fall in oil prices, even if traditional drilling and production companies had been forced to shelve new investments. If prices recovered most shale oil wells had the advantage of being able to restart production almost instantly.

  Fracking costs had fallen as new techniques cut drilling and pumping reduced expenses by up to fifty percent. The introduction of new technologies would cut water needs and pollution, boosting production in for example the Permian Basin in Texas, which could alone produce five million barrels a day, that is more that the giant Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, the largest traditional oil field in the world.

  Though the days of the medieval Wahhabi regime were not yet counted, hope was in sight. OPEC’s stranglehold on world markets, barring all out war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, was broken as US shale producers could quickly crank-up supply when needed, freeing for the first time in decades Western economies from the domination of energy markets by OPEC and Russia.