by R E Kearney
Living Among the Stars.
A Human's place in the Universe
By
R. E. Kearney
Contents
Introduction
Who is R. E. Kearney
Interview
Limited Time Left on Earth – Stephen Hawking’s Prediction for Humanity
Innovations in Renewable Energy
Endless Fire: Future Furies
Introduction
As a Senior Military Analyst in the U.S. Army’s Future Warfighting Division it was Robert Kearney's responsibility to write military scenarios for NATO and U.S. military training exercises based on environmental challenges, socio-economic changes, cultural and demographic differences, and newly developed weapons and tactics. Now that his time with the military has ended Kearney uses his forecasting skills and diverse knowledge to investigate, consider and discuss what the future may hold for the world.
This book looks at some of the incredible advances humans have made and considers the impact they might have for the future of our world, as well as the progress of mankind. These are considered scenarios that feature in Kearney’s futuristic thriller series Endless Fire that considers the calamities and catastrophes stalking humanity in the near future of an increasingly dystopian Earth. In the series, Metropolitan Generation, recalcitrant, part-time cyberwarrior Robert Goodfellow grudgingly joins intense, earnest and strong-willed Mugavus Komfort in her struggles to save humanity from itself.
Life is a tough challenge for every generation: An Endless Fire of climate change chaos, catastrophe and conflict is crippling civilization. Drought and starvation are crushing billions of people around the world forcing millions of families to desert their homes to survive. Dying is a way of life.
What was written as fiction, Endless Fire has now been renamed Prophetic Fiction and likened to Orwell’s 1984 in its surprisingly accurate assessment of life in the future. During 2016 many of the concepts Kearney proposed in book1, Future Furies, have already started to come true.
Who is R. E. Kearney?
“The best way to predict your future is to create it,” Abraham Lincoln said and as bestselling author, entrepreneur and agent of change Seth Godin wrote, “If you are deliberately trying to create a future that feels safe, you will willfully ignore the future that is likely.” Now, you may ask why I am beginning my biography with these two quotes. I am starting my biography with these two quotes because they represent the type of thinking that shapes my reasoning and my life and my writing.
I am a future fanatic. As far back as I am still capable of remembering, I have always been interested in what is next, what is over the horizon, what will be the next innovation or invention and how it will change the world. Unfortunately, I am neither an inventor nor an innovator. Instead, I have been lucky enough to be required to adopt, adapt and employ inventions and innovations in my work as a writer.
For several years, it was my challenge as well as my pleasure to write military scenarios for NATO and U.S. military training exercises, and lately, scenarios for developmental wargames for the U.S. Army’s Future Warfighting Division. All of the scenarios I developed and wrote required that I look to the future and consider environmental challenges, incorporate socio-economic changes, recognize cultural and demographic differences, and introduce newly developed weapons and tactics. To use the proper military acronym I was responsible for ensuring that my scenarios moved all the elements of PMESII, which stands for Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information, into the future.
Now that my time with the military is done, I am engaging those same forecasting skills and my diverse knowledge to investigate, consider and discuss what the future may hold for the world. I don’t know what I don’t know I admit, but I am always ready and excited to learn something I didn’t know and then to share that information with others. For as Charles F. Kettering said, “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.”
Interview
What do you consider to be the biggest threat to the continued existence of our planet?
You, me and my neighbor make three. Let all of us be realistic, the planet Earth is here to stay for many more years, but humans may not be around to enjoy it. The Earth will continue revolving and orbiting the sun, but it may well do it with cockroaches in charge instead of humans. We, ourselves, you and me, are the biggest threat to humankind’s continued existence on Earth. Although many humans do not want to believe it, humans are not invincible, not immortal nor omnipotent. So you, me and my neighbor must look at our future realistically. For as the Vogel brothers tell us in this song of reality, eventually, “We’re all going to die”. You can sing along at https://vloggest.com/watch/were-all-gonna-die-a-song-189166/.
We’re all going to die
“Every living organism at one time was dust
An assembleage of atoms from our atmosphere and crust
These bits they come together, only for a time
From that very first self-replicator oozing from slime
We exist and then we don’t, that’s just how we do
AND EVERYONE YOU KNOW SOMEDAY WILL ALSO BE DEAD TOO
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
It’s the one sure thing on which every living thing can rely
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
Everyone so far has died too
There’s not a thing that you can do
And you and me and us we’re all gonna die!
Well many folks will hope that there’s a way out of this song
That if we think real hard and act real tough somehow we’ll get along
We’ll fix those telomeres, digitize our brains
Freeze our dying bodies ‘till the remedys attained
Well I have some bad news for you, you can’t outrun the hearse
The explosion of the sun or heat death of the universe
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
It’s the one sure thing on which every living thing can rely
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
The singularity won’t save you
There’s not a thing that you can do
And you and me and us we’re all gonna die.
Eeeeeeeeeee
The marvellous truth of it all is that death is such a gift
Because the only reason we can die is that we even live
The improbability of life and you and me and us
That we exist at all to sniff and kiss and taste and hear and touch
We’ve use our minds to make so many awesome things somehow
Including all of the words in the song you’re listening to right now
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
It’s the one sure thing on which every living thing can rely
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
It’s the one thing you can’t live through
There’s not a thing that you can do
And you and me and us we’re all gonna die.
Arrogance of Ignorance. Now that we are firmly grounded in harsh reality, let’s look at our true situation. As stated before, the biggest threat to the continued existence of humans on our planet is ourselves and the determined effort of some our fellow hum
ans to either ignore or actually renounce that the climate is changing. At this moment, our future on this planet is being decided in an escalating battle between scientific imagination, invention and innovation opposing self-destructive ignorance and indolence. If the anti-science, science-deniers, non-thinkers are allowed to win then we all lose, our children lose and our children’s children lose.
In too many ways we are destroying our sanctuary Earth and, thus, ourselves with it. Our Earth is fragile and much damage to our Earth has already occurred that is not repairable. Most of what has been done, cannot be undone. But, where Mankind promotes science instead of superstition, damage to the Earth may be slowed, although there is little to no chance that the Earth will ever fully recover. Investing and innovating in science, mankind must become more of a producer and less of a consumer of the Earth’s life support systems. Only you, me and my neighbor can save the Earth, we cannot rely on unpredictable governments or easily reversible policies. We must do it ourselves. Individuals must change themselves to save themselves.
“It is not the strongest of the species that survive, not the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” Charles Darwin, scientist
Creative Constructive Disruptive Technology. The incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones.
Much of this investment in scientific responses and innovation to decelerate the damage we are continuing to cause to our Earth is occurring through private investment by private enterprises and in cities, or Metroplexes, especially European cities. Cities are where the action needs to take place. Cities are where the action is taking place. Cities are where the action will take place.
By the year 2050, more than seventy-five percent of the Earth’s population is projected to live in cities or urban areas which surround cities or metroplexes. In advanced nations, the percentage of their population predicted to live in urban-cities will be much higher, possibly eighty-five to ninety percent. Because of the density of population living and working in smaller geographical areas, cities are able to accomplish advances which cannot occur in rural areas with small populations spread over much larger geographic areas. Cities are one area of government where sensible, science-loving humans who do not want to see our society collapse are now responding. Cities around the globe are joining together, sharing resources, forming alliances, learning from each other and creating the future.
“A city is a state - of mind, of taste, of opportunity. A city is a marketplace - where ideas are traded, opinions clash and eternal conflict may produce eternal truths.” Herb Caen commentator and writer (deceased)
Climate Change is all about Economics. There are deep connections between the prosperity of companies, the vitality of cities and the health of our environment. The more vulnerable cities are to climate change, the greater the risks to the businesses located within them. The greater the locally specific climate-related risks to business operations and capital investment, the less likely a city will attract, retain and support the commerce it requires to employ its people and maintain its tax base. As far as climate risk is concerned, therefore, cities and companies are tightly linked.
Because they are more likely than national governments to recognise the real and present dangers, cities are best positioned to listen to the concerns of companies, leading to three conclusions: cities get it, cities are closely aligned with business priorities, and cities’ adaptation to climate change benefits business. Research shows that positive economic outcomes often stem from investments in public transit, increasing green space, and building infrastructure for walking and cycling, among other initiatives. By rebuilding infrastructure that reduces the risks of flooding, windstorms, drought or famine, cities allow companies to operate in a lower risk environment. The study claimed that 62% of all reported emissions reduction activities being undertaken by cities have the potential to make cities more attractive to businesses.
Earth’s cities are engaged in numerous organizations and endeavors. A few examples of the innovations and advances being wrought within and by cities follow. By far, the following discussions are limited. There are far too many changes occurring at far too fast a pace for all of them to be considered here.
“Cities are one area of government where sensible, science-loving humans who don’t want to see our society collapse are now responding.” Zachary Shahan.
The global campaign for 100% renewable energy is now underway. Renewable Cities http://www.renewablecities.ca/ is a global program of Simon Fraser University’s Centre for Dialogue in Vancouver, Canada with the mission of supporting cities through their transition to 100% renewable energy and increased energy efficiency. Renewable Cities works towards urban energy solutions with cities, governments, the private sector, utilities, researchers, and civil society using research-based dialogue, collaboration, and thought leadership. To be a “Renewable City” is to employ a holistic approach to managing urban energy use, covering the electricity, heating and cooling, and transportation sectors.
The largest number of jurisdictions to have adopted a 100% renewable target are municipalities. A few cities, such as Reykjavik and Burlington, Vermont have already achieved that goal in at least one sector. Many other larger global cities have adopted a 100% renewable energy goal in one or more of the electricity, heating and cooling, or transportation sectors. Some of these cities include Vancouver, Munich, Sydney, Hamburg, San Francisco, Barcelona, San Diego, and Malmö.
“A city is not gauged by its length and width, but by the broadness of its vision and the height of its dreams.” Herb Caen
Smart cities are one step. http://smartcitiescouncil.com/. To meet and defeat the predicted problems of the future, some nations are beginning to design urban environments called Smart Cities - cities designed or retro-fitted to sustain their ever-growing populations. Smart cities encompass six important sectors that need to work in unison to achieve a common goal of making a city more livable, sustainable and efficient for its residents. These sectors are smart energy, smart integration, smart public services, smart mobility, smart buildings, and smart water.
A smart city is an urban development vision to integrate information and communication technology and the Internet of things technology in a secure fashion to manage a city's assets. These assets include local departments' information systems, schools, libraries, transportation systems, hospitals, power plants, water supply networks, waste management, law enforcement, and other community services. A smart city is promoted to use urban informatics and technology to improve the efficiency of services. https://youtu.be/-7EJ9mIENYg
Information and communication technology is used to enhance quality, performance and interactivity of urban services, to reduce costs and resource consumption and to improve contact between citizens and government. Major technological, economic and environmental changes have generated interest in smart cities, including climate change, economic restructuring, move to online retail and entertainment, urban population growth and pressures on public finances. The European Union has devoted constant efforts to devising a strategy for achieving 'smart' urban growth for its metropolitan city-regions.
The Smart Cities Council defines its goals as follows. “We envision a world where digital technology and intelligent design have been harnessed to create smart, sustainable cities with high-quality living and high-quality jobs. To tap into the transformative power of smart technologies, cities need a trusted, neutral advisor. The Smart Cities Council provides that help. We are a network of leading companies advised by top universities, laboratories and standards bodies.
We promote cities that embody our three core values:
Livability: Cities that provide clean, healthy living conditions without pollution and congestion. With a digital infrastructure that makes city services instantly and conveniently available anytime, anywhere.
Workability: Cities that provide the enabling infrastructure — energy,
connectivity, computing, essential services — to compete globally for high-quality jobs.
Sustainability: Cities that provide services without stealing from future generations.”
One particularly shining example is Stockholm Sweden. Stockholm has been designated as an EU "lighthouse" city - alongside Barcelona and Cologne. Being named a “lighthouse” city means the projects it implements, if successful, can then be copied in other European towns. Stockholm, as with many advanced cities hopes to be fossil-fuel free by 2040 and sees eco-policies as the smartest thing not only for the city but for the planet. Stockholm is already one of the more eco-friendly metropolis with bio-fuel, generated from sewage, available at fuel stations around the city, which is regularly used by taxis and cars. "One hundred people going to the toilet powers one car, but if we add organic household waste, that goes down to 60 people," according to Gustaf Landahl, the heads of the Grow Smarter project.
“For these are not as they might seem to be, the ruins of our civilization, but are temporary encampment and outposts of the civilization that we -- you and I -- shall build.” John Cheever, The Stories of John Cheever (1978)
In the US, Cities and Towns continue to lead the way. US cities are uniquely positioned to drive the innovation, creativity, ideas, and solutions needed to tackle the pressing social and economic issues we are facing. A growing trend is US cities committing to 100 percent renewable energy demonstrates the ambition of mayors to articulate a vision for our country that is aligned with the will and well-being of the people. http://www.sierraclub.org/ready-for-100/mayors-for-clean-energy
Mayors know first-hand the harmful effects that pollution, the high cost of energy, and climate change have on people and families in their cities. From increased rates of asthma to missed days of school and work, mayors see how dirty fuels like coal and gas harm their citizens’ health and put their communities at risk. Fossil fuel companies and utilities often strive to lock cities into long-term, costly, polluting energy contracts while fighting or stalling affordable clean energy solutions. Many cities are grappling with the increasing risks associated with climate change, which put a strain on city budgets and infrastructure.