Our Next Great War

by Martin Archer

  But there was some good news I couldn’t share with Captain Carpenter—the Chinese seemed to be expecting any attacks on their bridges to come from the air. It meant the swimmers that did get to the bridges would probably have a fairly high rate of success.

  There is absolutely no getting around it. Russia would need more swimmers if it was to prevent the Chinese from bringing more troops and equipment into the battle for Chita than Danovsky and his men can handle. Should I go to Moscow and try to shake some loose?

  ******

  Russia’s buildup was proceeding but, unfortunately for the Russians in the Russian East, everything was happening slowly, much too slowly. The Russians were using old Il-76 and AN-26 cargo planes to bring tanks, armored personnel carriers, and missile firing anti-aircraft vehicles to Chita. The planes and armor were survivors of the recent war with NATO and those that were still usable were generally in bad condition due to years of inadequate maintenance.

  Even worse, the Russian cargo planes were built as tactical planes capable of carrying small loads the relatively short distances that Moscow thought would exist in a war with NATO. In other words, they could only carry a single tank or vehicle and they had such short legs that they had to stop at least once along the way to refuel.

  The only transport planes in the Russian inventory with sufficient range and carrying capacity to go non-stop to Chita were the surviving Anatov AN-22s. They were a bigger version of the AN-12s and could carry up to four armored vehicles. Unfortunately for Russia, there were fewer than twenty of them left.

  There aren’t many AN-22s because of losses in the recent war and because not many were ever built in the first place. They were not developed until the first Ussuri River war woke Russia up to the fact that it had no way to quickly bring armor and heavy equipment to the Chinese border.

  Russia’s most basic equipment problem, however, was illustrated by the AN-22s—only four of them were available; all the others were out for repairs due to years of shoddy maintenance and a lack of replacement parts.

  I’ve always wondered why in the 2003 war and earlier conflicts the Chinese repeated the great World War Two mistake of the Germans—not cutting the Trans-Siberian railroad. It would have been relatively easy for the Chinese to accomplish because the railroad runs so close to Russia's border with China and North Korea. The only explanation I could come up with is that the Chinese didn’t want to start a bigger war or risk a nuclear attack. This war was certainly going to be different.

  ******

  Snow machines were beginning to arrive at The Detachment. The first batch from Canada landed in Riems two days ago. But should we send them fully assembled or semi-assembled in their shipping boxes from the factories?

  We tried packing a C-130 both ways—and quickly decided to leave them in their boxes because it is so much easier and faster. The boxes are okay because the snow machines are basically ready to go when they come out of the box. All you have to do is add the skis, engine oil, and handle bars. It is simple enough so that even untrained users can do it in isolated Arctic villages.

  Actually, according to a message that came in yesterday from Charlie, he and Jack want the snow machines shipped in their original boxes because it’s a good way to screen potential riders. The Russian troops who can’t even figure out how to bolt on the skis, attach the battery, and add oil, are probably such klutzes that they’d wreck their rides before they could reach the Chinese and begin shooting.

  In any event, Charlie Safford and Jack Flanigan called in this morning and reported the training of the initial batch of snow machine drivers was going quite well even if there wasn’t yet any snow on the ground. The Russian troops, they said, think it’s fun to roar around on the snow machines and the Russians running the operation are being overwhelmed with volunteers from Karatonov’s airborne companies.

  Indeed, according to Jack, it’s so easy that most of their training time is spent learning how to use the Israeli sub machine guns and, particularly, the great Israeli hand held SAM and anti-tank missiles.

  We need to get the snow machines into position as soon as possible. They can replace the remaining partisan armor and infantry units and free them up for use in front of Chita.

  After thinking about what I had learned, I called Arkhara and again spoke with Captain Carpenter. A couple of additional frogmen showed up yesterday afternoon and that’s it. The Russian navy supposedly has quite a few of them scattered around, but the base and fleet commanders were apparently not willing to release them to Admiral Krusak. It was obviously time for another visit to Moscow.

  I went home at noon to tell Ann and the kids I would be gone for a few days. I forgot it was a school and pre-school day and the kids won’t be home for hours. I decided to wait because I wanted to see them before I left. Then Ann, little baby bump and all, looked at me with a twinkle in her eyes; so I gave the au pairs the rest of the day off and told them to take the train to Paris to “air out the apartment” and spend the evening in Paris. It took them about three minutes to get ready and rush merrily out the door. We spent a wonderful afternoon.

  The kids came home on the school bus that serves the village and drops them at the end of the lane. They were fine with my trip, particularly after I promised I’d try to be back in time for John Christopher’s next soccer game and that we’d all go to the game to cheer him on and then take the whole team and all the parents out for pizza. John Christopher and his friends love pizza and there is a new pizza restaurant in the next village. Ann said she was going to call the coach and extend the pizza invitation to everyone including the parents.

  Pops called with some interesting news as I was leaving for the airport. He just learned a recently retired General named Pettyjohn, now Sanders’s deputy assistant secretary for military affairs, was the source of the effort to smear me. Pettyjohn apparently read the official reports on the hotel incident and reached out to the Secretary of State’s campaign manager with the suggestion I had done something they could use to discredit me.

  Pettyjohn and the congressman, according to Pops, have visions of big political appointments when the Secretary is elected President. When? Does Pops really think she will be elected?

  “Pops, do you really think she might be elected?”

  “Well, she’s got a good chance because she’s got good name recognition because of her husband and the media. It’ll depend on what Dan does and who the President decides to support.”

  ******

  The Starlifter crew, Colonel Lindauer, and my aides Peterson, Shapiro, and Teniers, were waiting and ready to go when I finally got to the Riems airport as the sun was going down. About an hour after we took off I finished reading the latest intelligence reports and make a scrambled satellite call to Boots, my Sandhurst friend in British military intelligence.

  “Any chance we can repeat our recent ‘special projects’ with the Chinese?” I asked him.

  Boots knew exactly what I meant. He said he didn’t know but promised to do some checking. Then I had Sergeant Teniers get out my sleeping bag. I needed to get some sleep or I was going to have a really bad case of jet lag when we reach Moscow.

  Sleeping seems to be the only way I can reduce my inevitable jet lag when I travel more than a couple of hours. For some reason I no longer seem to be able to sleep sitting in airline seat. That was always sort of a surprise; years ago when I was a young soldier it seemed I could sleep anywhere at anytime. Now I need a sleeping bag and a bed. Sheesh.

  ******

  Moscow’s military airfield was its usual dingy and drab self. But this time the welcome was somewhat friendlier, for whatever that might signify. We were met by an English-speaking colonel with a smile and a military limo, the usual big black Zil. There were also a couple of vans for the rest of the guys and our luggage.

  The colonel wanted to take us straight to the Russian military headquarters but, surprisingly, he didn’t object when I told him to first take us to the American embassy. That�
��s where we’d be staying this evening before we flew out to Podovsk in the morning.

  We were expected at the embassy and a line of immaculate Marines in dress uniforms jumped to attention when I got out of the limo and hustled myself into the building. Then they rushed to help unload the luggage from the van that pulled in behind us while Colonel Lindauer and I had a brief meeting the ambassador and some of the embassy’s political and intelligence staff. We needed an update on the local situation.

  The accuracy of the intelligence materials I’d read on the plane was confirmed by the CIA station chief—Chernenko has apparently survived the coup attempt and is apparently even stronger than before since it disposed of a couple of his enemies. The only good news about the failed coup was that the army’s stock was particularly high because its generals had actively sided with the ultimate winner, the Russian President. The Foreign Intelligence Service, it seems, backed the wrong side and was being reorganized under new leadership. Good. Danovsky might be safe.

  Then it was back into the Zil and we once again zipped through the packed streets in the empty center lane until we reached the Russian Military Headquarters on the outskirts of Moscow. Lindauer and Peterson were with me and once again we started with a visit to General Petrov’s office for the ritual cup of coffee and a briefing.

  A slightly different bunch of people, all uniformed military this time, were in the briefing room as we walked in; I recognized some of the faces but not all of them.

  This time the Russian briefers, again there were two, and again both were colonels, ignored the bullshit about the political and theoretical differences between China and Russia. Instead, they concentrated on the Russian and Chinese orders of battle and the supply and equipment situation in the east.

  What was so interesting about their information was that it was not accurate. Either that or, God forbid, ours is not. In any event, a number of the “facts” we were told did not jibe with what we ourselves had seen on the ground and heard from the Russian officers on the scene. The only thing that rang true was that the Russians were doing their best to airlift in key supplies and reinforcements. Unfortunately their best was not very good—there is not much they could do with the limited resources they had available.

  Then it dawned on me. Danovsky had not informed Moscow about the changes he made in the disposition of his troops or where he thinks the Chinese will attack or what he thinks are the Chinese objectives. Moscow only knows the Chinese are coming; but they don’t know where and they don’t know how Danovsky intends to fight them.

  Of course they don’t. Danovsky is a smart guy. If Moscow doesn’t know his plans and preparations, they can’t be leaked to the Chinese.

  In response to the information we received, I briefed the Russians as to part, but only part, of what we understood to be the size of the Chinese forces and their objectives. There were obvious expressions of dismay and rejection when they heard our conclusions as to the possible Chinese objectives.

  A couple of the men who were present, one in particular, a general I’ve never seen before, repeatedly pressed me for information as to how Danovsky was going to respond if the Chinese attacked and where Danovsky thought they would attack. I acted dumb. "I haven't got a clue," I said as I shook my head.

  Moscow's military and political bureaucrats, as we did us initially, apparently still think the Chinese will be making another effort to retake the disputed territory around the Ussuri River.

  I just smiled and agreed—and passed out only the photos showing the Chinese supply buildups near both the Ussuri and Vladivostok. I was not about to tell them we now think the Chinese intend to go after the whole of Russia east and north of Lake Baikal. The President ordered me not to; he is afraid that Moscow would decide to use the nukes it still controls if they found out about the Chinese intentions before Danovsky was able to get enough reinforcements in place so that he had a chance to win without them. I feared the President might be right.

  There were sharp intakes of breath and expressions of disgust and disbelief as they looked at the photos. To a man they were aghast. Many obviously didn’t believe the Chinese would be so ambitious—and they didn't know the half of it.

  I didn’t speak Russian, but the men sitting around the room puffing on their cigarettes and drinking coffee responded to their translator’s words and the images with looks of incredulous dismay on their faces. Their thoughts are obviously along the lines of “it cannot be”….. “impossible”….. “American trick.”

  Things warmed up slightly when I passed around copies of the satellite photos showing the new rail and road construction all along China’s northern border and pointed out the troop concentrations, supply dumps, and tank parks. This time no one disagreed, at least not out loud, when I informed them that it appears the Chinese were preparing for a major military action aimed at Russia, and that their goal might be to try to take more than just the disputed Usurri lands.

  What I didn’t tell them was that the main Chinese attack would almost certainly be against Chita in an effort to cut off the Russian forces much further to the east, and that Danovsky was in the proces of relocating his forces to confront them.

  Danovsky had not informed Moscow of the troop dispositions he now intended. He obviously did not trust Moscow for fear that someone would leak his plans to the Chinese. And he was right. There was no sense letting someone tip off the Chinese that Danovsky knew where they would attack and was reorganizing his defenses to meet them.

  By the time we returned to the embassy the Russian military leadership had enough additional information about the situation in the east to be even more worried than ever about the intentions of the Chinese and the outcome of the coming war.

  I was more worried too—because after we got past heated demands for information about Danovsky's plans and an explanation about our rejection of the treaty, the questions and discussion soon turned to the possible use of nuclear weapons and how Danovsky might deploy his forces to fight the Chinese.

  Throughout it all I had said not a word about Danovsky’s troop deployments and intentions, instead I concentrated on assuring the Russians, quite emphatically as a matter of fact, that we had neither seen nor heard anything about the Chinese using of nukes. Over and over again I repeated that "neither Danovsky nor The United States thinks the Chinese will use nukes unless Russia uses them first.

  “We have heard nothing from the Chinese about using nukes unless you use them first. We in America are concerned about a nuclear war ourselves. In fact, the only reason the United States is helping Russia with money and food supplies is so you won’t have to use your nukes and subject us to the resulting fallout "when Moscow and Saint Petersburg are destroyed by the Chinese in retaliation.”

  As the meeting drew to a close General Petrov looked pointedly at the men sitting around the room as he assured me Danovsky has been ordered not to use his nukes and that Moscow is more determined than ever to get additional reinforcements and resources to him so he wouldn’t have to use them. Everyone nodded in agreement. No one smiled.

  The only problem, and it was not a small one, was that neither Danovsky nor anyone one representing him was among the men nodding their heads and doing the agreeing.

  What the men in Moscow still did not realize as the meeting broke up was that the Chinese attacks on Vladivostok and Khabarovsk would probably be diversions—the big attack, with thirty or more divisions and large amounts of armor and artillery, increasingly looked to be aimed at Chita with the goal of taking over all of Russia north and east of Lake Baikal. I would leave it to Danovsky to tell them.

  ******

  I’d just gotten back at the embassy and was on the phone getting new orders from the President, via Bill Hammond, when General Petrov called. Could I please come right now and meet with some important officials? He was sending a car.

  According to the President, it’s now okay to tell the Russians that the Chinese are likely to be going after more than just K
habarovsk and Vladivostok. But only, he orders, tell them about the land south of Amur; don’t tell them the Chinese invasion may be aimed at taking over all of Russia east of Lake Baikal; it might trigger Moscow to order a nuclear attack even if Danovsky and his generals do not.

  Once again Lindauer, Peterson, and I were driven down the center of the road and the traffic lights automatically turned green to pass us through. There is a big difference however—this time the meeting is at the Kremlin. Very impressive skyline. It’s the first time I’ve seen it.

  We arrived at the door of a very imposing stone building with lots of officials and guards clustered around the entrance. The Russian colonel who picked us up at the embassy delivered us to the building and turned us over to another colonel in a resplendent dress uniform. He was waiting as we pulled up. The three of us were in battle dress as usual.

  “Please follow me, General.”

  We climbed up the long stone steps, went upward in an ornate elevator, and got off at the entrance to a very impressive room. Dark wooden paneling, a high painted ceiling, and old master paintings on the wall.

  There was a huge ornate desk at one end of the room and a very large conference table between the entrance door and the huge desk. Several dozen men, mostly stocky older men in civilian clothes, stood in a group near the entrance and eyed us with obvious curiosity as we entered. It looks like a meeting of retired Teamster organizers.

  An older man stepped forward to greet us in Russian which was almost simultaneously translated into English.

  “Welcome to Moscow, General Evans, I am Konstantin Gerasinov. Thank you for joining us on such short notice. General Petrov told us about your meeting this afternoon at our military headquarters.”