Our Next Great War

by Martin Archer

  A middle aged woman with her gray hair in an austere bun translated my words into his ear as the President and I shook hands; Colonel Lindauer translated his for me.

  Gerasinov was quite affable. He took me by the elbow and guided me to a chair. Then he sat down at the head of the table next to me and the others hurriedly seated themselves to join us. Jack was guided to a chair near the table and Colonel Lindauer stood behind me ready to interpret if the Russian woman faltered. The table was covered with papers and coffee cups. We had obviously interrupted a meeting in progress.

  President Gerasinov got right to the point after a few words of pleasantries and an offer of coffee which I declined with an appreciative smile.

  “As you might imagine, Comrade General, we are more than a little taken aback by your news. Can it really be true that in a few days the Chinese will attempt to take Vladivostok and Kharbaovsk?”

  “I regret, I deeply regret, Mr. President, that the reports of a Chinese attack appear to be true. We have reason to believe they will launch a major military assault in the east in the days immediately ahead.”

  Then I went on. “But it now seems there is much more to the Chinese intentions than we initially thought. As you may know, I was at my embassy and in contact with Washington an hour ago, just before coming to meet with you. While there I received a very distressing intelligence update from the President himself. He has authorized me to share it with you. In a word, the situation is much more difficult and dangerous than I initially reported to General Petrov this afternoon.”

  Then I described part of the “intelligence update” I had just received, at least the part of it I was told I could share—that America’s intelligence agencies now conclude from their various sources that Harbin will be the main Chinese staging area and that the region around the Chinese city of Heihe looks to be a major launching site for the Chinese attack—with the occupation of the entire Amur River drainage as the goal including Khabarovsk and Vladivostok.

  Yes, we know the Chinese objectives are even greater and that the attack coming out of Heihe will be a diversion with the subsequent main attack coming through Manzhouli towards Chita. But the President wanted Moscow to only know enough to motivate them to increase their efforts to support Danovsky and leave the nuclear and war fighting decisions to Danovsky; not so much that they throw up their hands and go nuclear. It made sense to me.

  To a man the Russians jerked forward and opened their mouths in shock as the gray-haired lady translated my words. Even she seemed taken aback.

  “The only good news,” I said, “is that there are absolutely no indications that the Chinese intend to use nuclear weapons.”

  “Are you absolutely sure of all this Comrade American General?’

  “No Sir. I am not. I am not absolutely positive about of any of it. And I certainly hope our intelligence turns out to be entirely wrong.” Boy do I ever.

  “So do I… So do I,” President Gerasinov repeated slowly. “Unfortunately our intelligence organs are telling us the same thing.”

  They haven’t yet according to the CIA and NSA. I wonder why the Russians have not been able to do a better job of monitoring China. Do their much-touted satellites and Foreign Intelligence Service actually work? Or are we penetrating the Russian communications less than we believe?

  We looked at each other in silence and then he asked me a question. “Does America have any ideas as to how we might prevent this crisis…or survive it?”

  “Unfortunately we do not have any idea how the Chinese might be deterred from commencing their invasion. On the other hand, there is, of course, still a possibility that you can adequately reinforce General Danovsky and his men in time to defeat the Chinese.”

  Gerasinov looked around the room before he responded. “We are doing all we can. But you of, all people, know our problems.”

  Then, after another pause, he continues: “You have had recent experience and I am told you yourself fought the Chinese, rather successfully I hear. What do you suggest we do to assist General Danovsky?

  This is going to be tricky. “Um…Mr. President, I would strongly suggest that General Danovsky is likely to know better than anyone else what he needs to defeat the Chinese. So it is important to get him whatever he asks for rather than ignoring his requests because they don’t seem important to people who are not out there with him.”

  When, after a brief pause while his translator finished speaking, I continued.

  “Under the circumstances it might be appropriate to send an order to every military commander in every one of your services that filling General Danovsky’s requests, even those that seem small and unimportant, are their highest priority—and letting it be known that even the slightest delay in filling a doable request from the Far East will be considered a very serious failure and immediately dealt with.” I emphasized the words "and immediately dealt with."

  The Secretary General and the men around the table listened intently as the translator repeated my words in Russian. Then the Gerasinov leaned forward and spoke rather sternly.

  “You have visited with General Danovsky several times, Comrade American General. Do you know of such problems?”

  “Every commander has such problems, Mr. President. Human nature is such that sometimes officials far away from the battlefield try to maintain their empires by holding on to people and assets that could be better employed on the battlefield.

  "I have just come from east, and I do know of a number of General Danovsky's problems and ignored requests. But I know of no problem that couldn’t be immediately solved if such an order was given and enforced.” I emphasized "and enforced."

  Gerasinov looked around the table slowly and grimly nodded his head in understanding. Maybe Danovsky will get some additional swimmers after all.

  Then Gerasinov gave me the opening I’ve been hoping for. “Do you have any questions for us, Comrade American General?” I certainly do.

  “Yes Mr. President, I certainly do. We would like to know why so many of your navy and civilian ships are neither en route to the Pacific nor loading men and equipment in preparation to sail; why Aeroflot’s passenger and cargo planes are not being taken out of civilian service and used to carry troops and cargo to your forces in the east; why an effort was made to replace a fighting General like Danovsky who knows the territory with a political general who does not; and why certain people in Moscow keep asking for the details about how General Danovsky plans to fight the Chinese?”

  The men sitting around the table were obviously surprised at my audacity and the implications of my questions. There were a couple of audible gasps and a lot of muttering around the table as the white-faced translator gave them my questions while I continued talking.

  “In other words, Mr. President, we want to know if Russia is serious about trying to stop the Chinese without using nuclear weapons and why some of your officials appear to be trying to get information for the Chinese?” I emphasized the word ‘for.’

  I didn’t stop.

  “On the other hand,” I said thoughtfully after a brief pause, “perhaps such problems are inherent in your system because you—I gestured around the table as I spoke to indicate I meant everyone present—just can’t bring yourselves to allow your people to make the many millions of individual decisions necessary to win wars and have a strong economy.”

  Gerasinov opened his mouth and started to speak as the obviously appalled translator finished repeating my words. Then he stopped and looked around the table at his equally stunned colleagues. People don’t usually talk to you like that, do they comrades?

  After prolonged pause while he and the others digested my message with a good deal of stress and anger, Gerasinov finally dismissed me. “Thank you for meeting with us Comrade General. We appreciate your candor. Answers will be provided to your questions.”

  So I stood up and, with a wry smile and a little nod of my head, waved a casual farewell hand at the table as Peterson, Lindauer, and I
were led out of the chamber.

  “Jesus Dick,” exclaimed Lindauer after the door was shut behind us. “That was priceless.”

  ******

  Late that evening, after I returned from my meeting with the Russian president and the military committee of the Politburo, my Sandhurst friend, Boots, returned my earlier call and was patched through to me on a secure line in the embassy. Boots said he’d made some inquiries and couldn’t help with the “interesting new project” but that one of his good friends suggested I might find it profitable talk to a Jay Masters at the NSA. They have some “interesting new capacities.”

  Two minutes later, and with a half-eaten ham and cheese sandwich still in my hand—no lettuce and not enough mustard—I was patched through to Masters. This was no time to beat around the bush so I told him who I am and where I am and why I am calling. To my surprise, he knew all about our war-time efforts to mislead and misdirect the Russians; and, to my disappointment, he didn’t think the NSA could help even though “we’re working on it.” Damn.

  “Billy,” I yelled as I put down the phone. “Call the plane and tell Major Martin we want to leave for Riems as soon as we can get to the airport.”

  I’ve got an important soccer game to attend.

  Chapter Thirteen

  Unexpected players.

  It was a bombshell and no one saw it coming. Yesterday afternoon the Chinese Party Chairman, who was also China’s President and the head of the Party’s military commission, Xi Jinping, made a surprise visit to Tokyo, and this morning he signed a treaty to settle various territorial and other disputes between China and Japan.

  Our intelligence agencies obviously blew it—the United States did not learn about the treaty until the story appeared in the Japanese media. Bill Hammond called me immediately to tell me about it.

  Interestingly enough, according to the CIA, not a word about the treaty has yet appeared in the Chinese media. I wonder how the CIA and NSA missed finding out about the negotiations. Or did they?

  In any event, it seems the Chinese made the Japanese an offer they couldn’t refuse—the Chinese will immediately return the Kuril Islands to Japan, recognize Japan’s claim to the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, and recognize Japan’s claim to the southern part of Sakhalin Island which Russia seized from Japan at the end of World War Two.

  In exchange for the return of the islands, Japan agreed to reaffirm its neutrality and announce that it will remain neutral and allow neither China nor Russia and its allies, meaning the United States, to use its ports and airfields in the event of a conflict between China and Russia.

  Japan also agreed that the East China Sea and the waters beyond the returned islands’ three mile limit belong to China along with the waters around the Senkaku Islands even though they are also claimed by Viet Nam and the Philippines. The parties also agreed to recognize China’s claim to the Spratly Islands and Japan’s claim to the Paracels.

  It was an easy Japanese decision and an immense Chinese coup. In effect, Japan had regained the territory it lost in World War Two by recognizing China’s territorial claims in Russia and declaring itself neutral in the event of any conflict involving China.

  Moreover, the CIA was now reporting that it was likely Japan also agreed that in the event of a Sino-Russian conflict it will immediately send troops to Sakhalin Island to “protect” its citizens. Such a Japanese movement of troops to recover Sakhalin would be significant because there is a Russian garrison on the island. If the Russian garrison resists the Japanese landing, there could be fighting that would have the effect of bringing Japan into the war on the side of the Chinese. And where does that leave us and our military treaty with Japan?

  There was jubilation in the streets and office corridors of China and Japan; dismay and foreboding in Moscow, Washington, and Taiwan.

  Ann and I were eating breakfast at home when Bill Hammond called with more news. He had just gotten additional information about the new Sino-Japanese treaty and wanted to talk to me about it. He was worried about a possible Japanese move against the Russians on Sakhalin Island and seriously pissed that our intelligence people didn’t find out about the treaty until it was too late to try to stop it.

  Two hours later he called me at The Detachment with more news.

  “I just saw a transcript of the Secretary of State’s call to the Japanese foreign Minister, Guns, and I don’t know whether to laugh or cry. Listen to this.”

  “I am very surprised at your concerns Madam Secretary. I would have thought you would be very pleased. After all, it was your country that insisted our constitution should require us to be neutral and it was you yourself who told me just a few weeks ago that we should try to work out our differences with China”

  “….ah, here it is…”

  “All it means, Madam Secretary, is that the United States’ military cannot use ports and airfields in Japan to support Russia if there is a war. And that should not concern you since the United States has already renounced its military assistance treaty with Russia.”

  “Goddamnit,” was my response. “We’ve been using the airbase on Okinawa as a trans-shipment point to get supplies and equipment to Danovsky.”

  “I know. That’s why I called.”

  Then I had a worrisome thought. “Bill, what does the restoration of Sakhalin and the other islands mean for us? I mean, are we obliged under our defense treaty to help Japan if it begins fighting with Russia over Sakhalin?”

  That’s all we need—to have to fight the Russians in one place while we are helping them in another.

  ******

  An hour later I was at The Detachment drinking tea and eating stale donuts for lunch and waiting for a call from the President. Yeah. I’m drinking tea now. I decided it is easier on my stomach than coffee. I was still waiting two hours later when a White House aide finally called and asked me to standby to be conferenced into a National Security Council meeting.

  Five minutes later there was “bing” on the line and I could hear talking in the background, so I chirped “Evans here.”

  “Ah, General Evans. Glad you could join us,” said a familiar friendly voice. He sounds very weary.

  “Thank you, Mr. President.”

  “Ah, General, the Security Council has been meeting for several hours regarding this new development. The new Sino-Japanese treaty, I mean.”

  “Yes Sir.”

  “Ah, General, how do you think it will affect your program to help the Russians?” My program?

  “Actually Sir, not all that much. We can route any supplies and equipment we want to send to the Russians through South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines.”

  “Ah, that’s good to know. It confirms what we’ve been hearing here in Washington. We’ll let you know what our decision is as soon as possible, hopefully later today. Thank you.” Then there was a click and I was cut off. Decision?

  ******

  Bill Hammond called a couple of hours later. The National Security Council just adjourned, he said, and the President has made a decision.

  “We’re gonna stick with quietly providing help to the Russians, at least for now, and we’re going to pull a Kennedy and keep using the airbase on Okinawa even if the Japanese tell us not to.”

  “That’s a bit surprising and pretty smart,” I respond. “I was expecting to hear that we’re gonna back off and wash our hands of the whole thing, let’em fight it out without us.”

  “Yeah, me too. But now there’s something else.”

  “Jesus, now what?”

  “We’ve picked up more intel. Serious stuff. The CIA and NSA now believe that the Chinese are going after a lot more than Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, and the Amur River drainage; they’re going for the whole enchilada, everything, and I mean everything, east of Lake Baikal. If they win they’ll be our new neighbors up in Alaska.”

  “Holy shit.”

  “You got that right. If they win, Russia gonna be significantly smaller, just another marginal country on the f
ringe of Europe; Japan’s going to be a bit larger, and China will be the biggest country in the world and a major threat to us with all its additional territory and all its new resources and allies.

  ******

  Two days later I was back in Arkhara getting updated by Charlie Safford in the little hut that passes as his home and office when he got a call from someone at Danovsky’s headquarters about our missing Special Forces team.

  “Captain Carpenter,” Charlie shouted. “Get in here pronto.”

  “Sorry Sir, I was out back using the latrine.”

  “A call just came in from the Russians. The guy who called didn’t speak very good English but I think he was saying they may have found something about the whereabouts of Williams and Kramer. It sounds like they are sending some troops to check it out.”

  “That’s good news, Sir; really good news.”

  “Yeah, it is. So I want you to get down to the Russian helicopter detachment on the south side of the strip and go with them if they’ll let you on board. Take Vern, Sergeant Hurlburt, with you and ask for Colonel Chernenko. … Yeah, Chernenko, and take whatshisname the new interpreter with you. You know, the Russian guy who showed up this morning.

  “General Danovsky is sending a couple of infantry companies out to the site to act as security. You and Vern are to accompany them. But watch yourself, Jerry. Don’t you and Hurlburt take any unnecessary chances and that’s an order. It’s little worrisome that they think they need to send so many men… Come to think of it, I think I’ll ride down there with you and see what’s going on. You want to come with us, Dick?” I nodded.

  “Corporal Miller,” Charlie boomed.

  “Yes Sir,” came an answer from from one of the men who had been standing just outside Charlie’s hut while we talked.

  “Dusty, General Evans and I are going down to the airstrip with Captain Carpenter and Sergeant Hurlburt. If anyone calls, tell’em we’ll be back in about an hour.