US-China Relations (3rd Ed)

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US-China Relations (3rd Ed) Page 39

by Robert G Sutter


  the end of the administration of President Chen Shui-bian in 2008 featured

  repeated episodes of escalating tensions in US-China relations regarding Tai-

  wan. They usually were prompted by actions by Taiwan’s government, often

  in reaction to escalating coercive pressure from China, to move in directions

  seen by China as supporting Taiwan’s independence. As indicated in chap-

  ters 5 and 6, the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations had a hard time

  in efforts to deter the two sides from provocative actions, to calm tensions

  when one side or the other took steps that worsened cross-strait relations, and thereby to sustain the broad American interest in preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan area.

  The election of Ma Ying-jeou as president of Taiwan in 2008 significant-

  ly reduced cross-strait tensions and the salience of the Taiwan issue in Sino-

  American relations. Ma reversed the policies and practices of his immediate

  predecessors that were seen by China as moving Taiwan toward indepen-

  dence of China. He put aside the zero-sum competition that had generally

  prevailed in Taiwan-China relations for sixty years. He opened Taiwan to

  much greater interchange with China that made the Taiwan economy more

  dependent than ever on close and cooperative relations with China. China

  reciprocated with policies and practices designed to foster closer ties and

  build closer identity between Taiwan and the mainland. US policy makers in

  the Bush and Obama administrations warmly welcomed the moderation of

  cross-strait tensions. 4

  The domestic foundations of Ma’s positive engagement with China re-

  mained unsteady. Vocal oppositionists continued attacking as they grew in

  political prominence. Domestic opinion in Taiwan turned against closer ties

  with China, and mass demonstrations opposed agreements seen as making

  Taiwan more dependent on China. Ma’s overall approval rating plummeted

  and his Nationalist (or Kuomintang, KMT) party lost the presidential and

  legislative elections in 2016 by such wide margins that it was questionable

  how soon it would revive as a leading force in Taiwan politics. The incoming

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  Tsai Ing-wen administration promised to sustain the status quo in cross-strait

  relations as it refused Chinese demands and pressures to accommodate Chi-

  nese interests. Beijing gradually increased negative military, diplomatic and

  economic pressures with an eye to weakening Taiwan and thereby eroding

  domestic support for the Tsai government. 5

  Why Cross-Strait Relations Improved, 2008–16

  The relevant context of cooperation and easing of tensions in cross-strait

  relations in this period is the tumultuous period dating from President Lee

  Teng-hui’s visit to the United States in 1995 to the end of the administration

  of President Chen Shui-bian in 2008. Tensions in cross-strait relations and

  the perceived danger of conflict in the Taiwan area rose dramatically in the

  mid-1990s, lasting until the election of Ma Ying-jeou. In the end, Taiwan

  voters and US policy makers reacted strongly against the extremes of Tai-

  wan’s leaders in this period, establishing the momentum behind an improve-

  ment of relations. China welcomed and endeavored to influence this turn of

  events.

  Taiwan’s President Lee Teng-hui surprised Chinese leaders by gaining

  permission from the United States to visit Cornell University in 1995. Lee’s

  international activism and the US role in it were seen in China as fundamen-

  tal challenges to Chinese interests, and Beijing responded harshly, notably

  with a series of military exercises in the Taiwan area during a nine-month

  period leading up to Taiwan’s presidential election in March 1996. The Clin-

  ton administration became seriously concerned with the need to reassure

  China of US intentions toward Taiwan while deterring China from using

  force. Prior to Taiwan’s presidential election, the United States deployed two

  aircraft carrier battle groups to the region. 6

  Tensions rose again following Lee Teng-hui’s declaration in an interna-

  tional media interview in 1999 that he viewed cross-strait relations as a

  relationship between two separate states, an implicit challenge to China’s

  one-China principle, which considers Taiwan to be part of China. China’s

  top leaders warned Taiwan voters against choosing the Democratic Progres-

  sive Party (DPP) candidate, Chen Shui-bian, in the 2000 presidential elec-

  tions, given that Chen and his party had a long record supporting self-deter-

  mination for Taiwan, an anathema to China. In spite of such objections, Chen

  won the election. He made little progress with China, which chose to work

  with the KMT and its political allies, who controlled the legislature and

  opposed many of Chen’s initiatives. 7

  Chen’s reelection campaign in 2003–04 featured a series of appeals to

  Taiwanese nationalism and autonomy from China, which Chinese leaders

  again saw as direct challenges to their national interests. The Bush adminis-

  tration initially was very supportive of Taiwan but US leaders from the

  Taiwan and East Asian Maritime Disputes

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  president on down came to see Chen’s actions as dangerously provocative,

  and they turned against him. As the Chen administration wound down its

  term in office with a reputation for poor governance and rampant corruption

  as well as with low approval ratings, Chen carried out a variety of controver-

  sial policies and practices treating Taiwan as a state separate from China.

  These steps usually were seen as provocative by China and by the Bush

  administration, with the US government weighing in publicly against mea-

  sures it saw as upsetting the stability in the Taiwan Strait. The Chen adminis-

  tration’s relations with the United States eventually reached a point where

  the United States began restricting stopovers for Chen’s transits on trips

  abroad to locales as far away from Washington as possible. 8 The administration was loath to move forward with arms sales, senior-level contacts, or

  other initiatives that would appear to be supporting Chen.

  China duly registered public opposition to Chen’s initiatives but placed

  more emphasis on working in consultation with the Bush administration to

  deal with Chen’s maneuvers. Beijing strengthened the impressive military

  buildup focused on Taiwan and deepened Taiwan’s economic interdepen-

  dence with the mainland. Looking beyond the Chen administration, Chinese

  officials built increasingly positive connections with the KMT and other

  opposition political leaders and broader segments of Taiwan business elites

  and other opinion leaders. 9

  Chen’s maneuvers and their negative consequences for cross-strait and

  Taiwan-US relations, along with the Taiwanese president’s apparent deep

  personal involvement in corruption scandals, undermined the attractiveness

  of DPP candidates in legislative elections in January 2008 and the presiden-

  tial election in March 2008. The result was a landslide victory for KMT

  candidates. The party gained overwhelming control of the legislature, and

  new president Ma Ying-jeou received a strong mandate
to pursue policies of

  reassurance and moderation in cross-strait relations. 10 The United States and China both welcomed this new policy direction.

  President Ma had an agenda emphasizing reassurance of China that his

  government would not move Taiwan toward independence; it was based on

  closer economic, social, and other contacts across the strait. Ma and his

  colleagues in Taiwan and their counterparts in China emphasized that

  progress would be easier in building closer and mutually advantageous eco-

  nomic and social ties. Issues of security and sovereignty posed by the grow-

  ing Chinese military buildup opposite Taiwan and Taiwan’s desire for great-

  er international participation would be harder to resolve. 11

  On the whole, the improvements in cross-strait relations were rapid and

  impressive. Admittedly, the Chinese government took no significant action

  to reduce its military presence directly opposite the island. Likewise, Ma was

  reluctant to engage in talks with China on a possible peace agreement, while

  arguing that discussion of reunification would have to await developments

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  after his term in office. Nonetheless, the security situation in the Taiwan

  Strait entered a period of relaxation of tensions as both Beijing and Taipei

  emphasized enhancing people-to-people contacts and expanding economic

  ties. A major development was the 2010 free trade agreement (FTA) between

  China and Taiwan, known as the Economic Cooperation Framework Agree-

  ment (ECFA), which provided privileged access to Chinese markets and

  other economic benefits for important constituencies in Taiwan. 12

  The numerous cross-strait agreements increased face-to-face interaction

  between Taiwan and Chinese authorities after decades of no direct dealings.

  The agreements were between ostensibly unofficial organizations—Taiwan’s

  Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and China’s Association for Relations

  Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS). They required officials of the two

  governments to deal with each other on transportation, food safety, financial

  regulation, law enforcement, and other issues. In effect, three channels of

  communication became active between Taiwan and Chinese authorities: the

  SEF-ARATS exchanges; exchanges between the leaders of the Chinese

  Communist Party (CCP) and Taiwan’s KMT; and widening government-to-

  government coordination and cooperation on a variety of cross-strait issues.

  Many of the agreements, interactions, and understandings focused on manag-

  ing the large-scale trade and investment between Taiwan and China. 13

  Meanwhile, the Ma Ying-jeou government achieved a breakthrough in

  convincing China to allow Taiwan to participate in the annual World Health

  Assembly (WHA) meeting as an observer, using the name “Chinese Taipei.”

  Other evidence of progress in China-Taiwan relations regarding Taiwan’s

  participation in international affairs was the diminishment of what had been

  intense competition between the two countries for international recogni-

  tion. 14

  The Bush administration welcomed the efforts of the Ma government and

  China’s positive response as stabilizing and beneficial for all parties con-

  cerned. After the United States turned aside an initiative by President-elect

  Ma to visit for talks with US officials prior to his inauguration, Ma made no

  other such requests and worked hard to keep his transit stops in the United

  States discreet in ways that would not complicate US relations with China.

  High-level contacts occurred between the United States and Taiwan in quiet

  and private ways that avoided upsetting China, while ongoing US military

  consultations with and advice to Taiwan’s armed forces continued. 15

  The Bush administration delayed until close to the last minute approval of

  a large arms sales package for Taiwan, which at $6.5 billion was the largest

  approved by the Bush government. Initial generous offers from the United

  States during Bush’s first year in office were repeatedly delayed and whittled

  down on account of partisan bickering and funding delays for many years in

  Taiwan. This was followed by US reluctance to provide arms that would

  appear to support Chen Shui-bian’s perceived provocative stance toward

  Taiwan and East Asian Maritime Disputes

  221

  China. The package in 2008 represented about half of what Taiwan requested

  and did not include sixty-six F-16 fighters that Taiwan had been trying for

  years to buy from the US government. Nonetheless, China strongly criticized

  the arms sale and suspended military contacts with the United States until

  mid-2009. 16

  The Obama administration also welcomed the new stability in cross-strait

  ties and appeared to be relying on Ma and his team to continue to manage

  cross-strait ties in positive ways that would not cause Taiwan to rejoin the

  already crowded list of US policy priorities needing urgent attention. 17 The Obama government followed through with a $6 billion arms package for

  Taiwan in 2010. Although the package did not include F-16 fighters, it still

  prompted sometimes strident public complaints along with limited substan-

  tive retaliation from China. Later US arms sales included another large arms

  package worth more than $5 billion in 2011 that proposed significant up-

  grades in the capabilities of Taiwan’s existing F-16 fighters. 18

  Recent Developments

  The thirteen-year (1995–2008) experience with tense cross-strait and US-

  Taiwan-China relations reinforced a strong tendency in the US government

  to manage issues with Taiwan in ways that avoided major friction with what

  was viewed as a much more important relationship with China. The strength

  of that tendency was seen during the escalation in recent years of US-China

  frictions over a range of security, economic, and political issues, which from

  the American side were seen as caused by the newly assertive actions of

  Chinese party leader and President Xi Jinping, who was elected in 2012. The

  Obama government showed a pattern of very deliberative and transparent

  foreign policy making that in the case of China saw gradual escalation of

  rhetorical criticism and eventually some serious actions to deal with disputes

  with China. The pattern showed that specific differences and disputes with

  China were dealt with separately; they were not linked to other issues in US-

  China relations or to the overall state of the relationship, which continued to be portrayed by the president and his advisers in a positive and optimistic

  way, with priority given to areas of increased constructive engagement and a

  credit-worthy foreign policy legacy for President Obama. Under these

  circumstances, Taiwan policy was not allowed to change in ways that could

  seriously aggravate Beijing.

  For example, as noted in chapter 7, President Obama for many years

  rarely criticized China, but China’s practices under the rule of President Xi

  Jinping prompted a remarkable rhetorical and to some degree substantive

  hardening in US government policy. The president’s wide-ranging and often

  sharp criticism notably did not include Taiwan. Rather, the president and his

  administra
tion continued to adhere to an approach inherited from the George

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  W. Bush administration that Taiwan issues should be handled in ways that

  avoided serious negative consequences for American policy toward China.

  Thus, the president’s signature rebalance policy in the Asia-Pacific region

  was repeatedly and sometimes harshly criticized by China. The Obama

  government nonetheless went ahead with a wide range of initiatives with

  Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam, and other areas around Taiwan, but initial

  administration statements about the policy failed to even mention Taiwan. In

  response to various queries, the administration began stating routinely that

  Taiwan was included in the rebalance policy, though it avoided discussing

  any details of what the United States and Taiwan were doing, presumably to

  avoid offending the People’s Republic of China in ways seen as adverse to

  administration interests. 19

  US officials highlighted progress in relations with Taiwan that involved

  cooperation on global issues, increased official interchanges at levels some-

  what higher than in the recent past, and assisting Taiwan membership in

  international bodies and other matters that were deemed less likely to prompt

  frictions with China. They avoided taking sides, including during her candi-

  dacy in 2015-2016, against President Tsai Ing-wen, a member of the DPP,

  which refuses to endorse the view of one China demanded by Beijing. The

  Obama government had voiced reservations about Tsai’s cross-strait policy

  during her failed 2012 election campaign against Ma Ying-jeou. US officials

  encouraged both Beijing and Taipei to avoid provocations, seek constructive

  communications, and reach compromise formulas or understandings that

  would avoid a break in cross-strait interchange detrimental to peace and

  stability. 20

  US policy toward Taiwan continued to be challenged by new circum-

  stances. For one thing, the Taiwan voters’ deepening wariness of Ma Ying-

  jeou’s approach to China supported President Tsai and her DPP colleagues’

  firm stance in protecting their view of Taiwan’s sovereignty in the face of

  Chinese pressure. Military tension in cross-strait relations rose with Chinese

 

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