by Dale Brown
“How did they report that with an electrical malfunction, General Glenbrook?” asked Secretary of State Herbert Kevich, who had just arrived at the Situation Room moments before the president. Kevich had been deputy secretary of state under the previous administration, but he was so experienced and knowledgeable in Russian and Chinese affairs that he was kept on by the Phoenix administration. A short, round, impatient-looking man with round reading glasses affixed to the end of his nose even though he mostly looked right over them, Kevich was clearly exasperated by most military officers and high-ranking government officials, even to the point of not acknowledging he was one himself. Kevich arrived quickly when the notification went out to the president’s national security staff because he had no other life other than as secretary of state—he would have been perfectly happy to live in the Situation Room, or even in the basement of the White House, if it meant he had speedier access to all the world’s events.
“The crew was communicating with their command post via civilian satellite text messages for a short time after the malfunction took place, Secretary Kevich,” Glenbrook said.
“Texting while driving? Not a smart move, I think,” Kevich quipped.
“A very heads-up move, I think, Herbert,” Phoenix said. “I want a search-and-rescue mission initiated immediately, and I don’t want the Chinese involved in any way, especially that carrier. If it’s in the area of the crash, I want it out of there.”
“Yes, sir,” Glenbrook said.
“That might be problematic, Mr. President,” Kevich said. “The South China Sea may legally be considered international waters, but the Chinese consider it their exclusive domain, as we do with the Gulf of Mexico or the Japanese with the Sea of Japan. The Chinese government will not like being told what to do in their own front yard.”
“If the Chinese lost an aircraft over the Gulf of Mexico, I wouldn’t mind if they brought search teams or even an aircraft carrier battle group in to search—we’d keep an eye on them, but I’d allow it,” Phoenix said. “We’re not going to play power politics or geopolitical upmanship with a search, rescue, or recovery mission—China must not interfere, period. I want the crash site located and secured from the air as well as the surface. Warn anyone nearing the area to remain clear.”
“And if they don’t, Mr. President?” Kevich asked.
“Have the on-scene commander for the rescue report to me if the Chinese won’t cooperate,” Phoenix replied after a short pause for consideration. “Commanders can do whatever they need to do to protect their forces, but no other action without approval. Tensions are going to be high—I don’t want anyone shooting first and asking questions later.” Glenbrook nodded and picked up the telephone to issue the orders.
Several minutes later, Vice President Ann Page entered the Situation Room, carrying a secure tablet computer. She was accompanied by Thomas Torrey, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Page was a multidegree engineer and physicist by training, but her background spanned the universe, from her years as a U.S. senator from California to one of America’s most experienced astronauts and space weapons designers. Slender and energetic, with short gray hair, she was the president’s closest adviser. Torrey was a thirty-year veteran of the CIA despite looking no older than forty years of age; in the drastic downsizing of the federal government under the Phoenix administration, the post of director of national intelligence was eliminated and once again the CIA director oversaw all civil foreign intelligence operations in the United States. “Tom just gave me the transcript of the text messages sent by the surveillance plane, Mr. President,” Page said, holding up the computer. “The crew believed the J-20 fighters launched from the carrier.”
“They obviously wanted us to see those fighters, sir,” Torrey said. “The Chinese could even have allowed the Poseidon to come in close enough to see them launch from the carrier.”
“But why would they shoot down the Poseidon?” the president asked. “It doesn’t make sense.”
“Something else happened out there,” Page said. “The text transmissions stopped abruptly for some reason. Then several minutes later one of our Asian search-and-rescue satellites picked up a ‘Mayday’ distress call with the Poseidon’s partial call sign. No other transmissions were picked up until the SARSAT received the Poseidon’s emergency locator beacon, which is usually activated either manually or after a crash.” The SARSAT, or Search and Rescue Satellite, was a satellite dedicated to picking up and relaying signals from aircraft and vessel emergency beacons, providing accurate position data to rescuers. “It was obviously activated manually because the position of the plane changed quite a bit, as if it was still flying. Then the position stopped. But the plane’s track was only active for a couple minutes.”
“So they didn’t activate it manually until just before they hit the water?” the president asked. “Would they do it so late?”
“Depends on what they were experiencing,” Torrey said. “If they had an in-flight emergency, such as a fire or flight-control problem, perhaps they were dealing with that right before they crashed.”
“We may not know anything until we recover whatever’s left of the plane and its black boxes,” Page said. “Even then, we still may not know for sure.”
“So the Chinese may not be culpable after all,” Secretary of State Kevich said. “Sir, do you still want to issue the order to keep the Chinese away from the crash site? They are obviously closer to the site and have considerable resources to conduct a rescue. If they offer their assistance—or if they initiate a search-and-rescue effort on their own, as any nation or vessel on the high seas should—we should welcome such cooperation. After all, China is not our enemy.”
“That might be the neighborly thing to do, Herbert,” Phoenix said, “but I think it’s no coincidence that one of our surveillance planes falls out of the sky near a Chinese carrier battle group. I want the reason why that plane went down determined as best we can before I rule anything out. If this was indeed a deliberate act and not an accident or malfunction, then whoever did it will try to erase the evidence—and if that someone is China, and if they reach the crash site, I think that’s exactly what they’d do.”
Kevich looked at the president carefully for a few moments. “We’ve had this discussion before, sir, after the Chinese withdrew from Somalia,” he said carefully and directly, “but it does bear repeating: presuming China as an adversary may make it come true, even though they may not be.”
“I don’t think of China as an adversary, Herbert,” the president said. Kevich gave him a skeptical expression; the president paused for a few moments, then nodded. “To be honest, Herbert, I consider them a serious potential adversary.”
“With respect, sir, I think much of that comes from fear,” Kevich said.
“Maybe so, Herbert,” Vice President Page said, bristling at the insinuation that Kenneth Phoenix was fearful of anything. “But the Chinese government is not doing very much to lift the unknowns and secrecy that are causing fear to rise. We’re not asking them to reveal every secret or strategy. They are more than happy to accept our efforts at openness and cooperation, but it’s rarely mutual.”
“The Chinese are an old and insular people, Miss Vice President,” Kevich said. “They are isolated politically, geographically, and culturally. It is important for us to remember and understand that the nations of the West have done nothing but exploit China from the sea for centuries. Now that China is embarking on a program to modernize and increase trade with the world, we become suspicious. They are looking to the future and willing to wait to become a world power. We think in terms of months or fiscal quarters—the Chinese think in terms of decades or even generations.”
“All that may be true, Herbert,” the president said, “but it always hasn’t been the case. Chinese explorers have traveled half the globe. Isolation has mostly been the chosen method for controlling their enormous population, especially when their maritime provinces became rich and powerf
ul and the agrarian inland provinces stayed in abject poverty. Besides, this is the twenty-first century—no nation, not even China, can remain isolated.”
“And when we get reports nearly every day of another computer or network hacking attempt traced back to a Chinese government-owned or controlled entity,” Page said bitterly, “I wonder if the war has already started—we’re just not engaged in it yet.”
“All I’m saying, Miss Vice President, is that it makes little sense to me why a three-thousand-year-old nation would do anything to threaten its own existence, especially versus the most economically and militarily powerful nation on Earth,” Kevich said. “Although China is undergoing an economic and military surge, please remember that its economy is still one-third of ours; we have over a hundred years of naval aviation experience, while they have just a few; and we still remain a world power, while China is only on the brink of becoming a regional power.”
“But that region is pretty damned important to us and the rest of the world, Herbert,” Ann said. “If this incident turns out to be a bid by Beijing to claim sovereignty over the South China Sea region, we need to squash that plan immediately.”
“If they were involved in the Poseidon incident, I would expect it to turn out to be an accident or an isolated incident by an inexperienced and misguided sea captain, and we should keep open minds so as to not threaten our strategic relationship,” Kevich went on. “Never forget, we rely closely on each other in dozens of areas: trade, finance, investment, education, technology, geopolitical balance, the list goes on. The fate of the entire planet rests on the balance between the West and China. One incident shouldn’t threaten to upset that balance.”
President Phoenix remained silent for a few long moments, then nodded. “Points well taken, Herbert,” he said finally. “Maybe I am jumping to conclusions.” Kevich nodded and smiled, satisfied that his arguments seemed to win over the president. But his smile faded when the president went on, “But I still don’t want the Chinese near that crash scene. We’ll politely but firmly ask them to stay away while we conduct search, rescue, recovery, and investigation activities.”
“I reiterate, sir: China considers the South China Sea of the utmost strategic value—sending in a large armada of ships, even to mount a search and rescue, may be perceived as a provocation,” Kevich said.
“I understand what you’re saying, Herbert,” the president said, “but we’re not going to get into a philosophical discussion about foreign relations with China when we have American sailors down in the South China Sea.” He thought for a moment, then continued: “I’ll call Premier Zhou right away and notify him of our intentions, and ask him not to allow any vessels to interfere. I’ll also speak with Prime Minister Ruddock of Australia, Tran of Vietnam, Cruz of the Philippines, and Saleh of Indonesia. They should all know what is happening and what we intend to do next. Herbert, contact NATO, ANZUS, and ASEAN and advise them as well.” The countries of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance, were always notified of such contingencies, even though they were not in the region; the other organizations—ANZUS, which stood for Australia, New Zealand, and the United States; and ASEAN, or the Association of South East Asian Nations—were important regional alliances and associations with whom the United States regularly cooperated. “Bill, get together with General Spellings and give me a rundown of the forces in the region and the assets the task force will use for the search and rescue.” Air Force General Timothy Spellings was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the president’s primary uniformed military adviser. “Give Pacific Command full authorization to start the search.”
“General Spellings is on his way over with the order of battle and a search-and-rescue plan right now, sir,” Glenbrook said. “He’s already sent me the latest disposition of forces, and he said he’d be ready to brief a real-time update by the time he arrives at the White House. I’ll get a briefing from him first when he arrives, ask him to fill in any holes, then let you know when we’re ready to brief the national security staff.”
“Very good,” Phoenix said. Now that everyone had their assignments they filed out of the Situation Room, leaving Phoenix alone with Ann Page. “So what do you think, Ann?” Phoenix asked.
“I think I don’t like Kevich implying you were acting out of fear of the Chinese,” she said.
“I meant about the Poseidon incident,” Phoenix said. “Herbert speaks his mind, which is why I have him in the Cabinet. Everyone here is supposed to speak their minds with me, not just you.”
“So he thinks he can admonish and even accuse the president of the United States just because he’s forgotten more about Russia and China than we’ve ever known? I don’t think so,” Ann said perturbedly.
“Let’s get back to the Poseidon loss, shall we?” Phoenix asked. “I’m about to tell Premier Zhou that I’m going to send in a number of warships right into the middle of his own private lake, and I don’t want any of his ships or planes nearby while they’re there. Herbert’s right: he’s not going to like it. I wouldn’t like it if he told me he was going to send a bunch of warships into the Gulf of Mexico, and I wasn’t allowed to at least monitor their activities, if not be directly involved. I would allow it, but I’d reserve the right to keep close watch on what they’re doing. Do you think I should allow China to monitor us, like Herbert suggests?”
“Hell no,” Ann said. “We lost a sophisticated surveillance aircraft and several Navy personnel near a Chinese warship and aircraft. The plane was unarmed, on a peaceful surveillance mission, and it was flying in international airspace and went down in international waters. I don’t buy the argument that the South China Sea is China’s private lake. We’re going to conduct a search-and-rescue operation, and then a recovery-and-investigation operation, and we don’t want anyone—especially China—interfering. Period. End of sentence. And the definition of ‘interfering’ is whatever we say it is, whenever we say it.”
Ken Phoenix thought for a moment, then smiled and nodded. “I agree completely, Ann,” he said. “Herbert is the geopolitical guru around here, but we’re going to put geopolitics aside until we rescue our sailors and find out what the hell happened. If anyone gets in the way, we’re pushing back. All the other relationships with China don’t matter until our rescue and investigation operations are concluded.”
“Sounds good to me, Mr. President,” Ann said. “I’ll get together with my staff and get ready for a morning press briefing.” In the extreme drawdown of the federal government, the vice president acted as chief of staff and press secretary as well as performing her other constitutionally mandated duties; despite the extra workload, Ann Page made doing the extra tasks look easy. “I expect my phone will be ringing off the hook when I get back to the office. You want me to do a few morning shows too?”
“Not until we have more information, Ann,” Phoenix said. “I don’t want you in front of forty million viewers saying nothing more than ‘we don’t know anything yet.’ Give a statement to the press corps—nothing about our suspicions about the Chinese fighters or aircraft carrier, of course—and that’s all for now.”
“Yes, Mr. President,” Ann said. They discussed a few other important matters over coffee, then they headed back to their offices to continue their day that had started so early with the iconic “phone call in the middle of the night.” But before Ann departed, Phoenix called out to her: “One more thing, Ann.”
Page stopped at the door. “Yes, Mr. President?”
“It’s a ‘Ken’ question, Ann,” the president said. He paused, thought for a moment, then spread his hands. “How do you think I’m doing, Ann?” he asked.
“Doing . . . what, sir?”
“Doing . . . the job. Being president. How am I doing?”
Ann rolled her eyes and shook her head. “Excuse me, sir, but what kind of question is that?”
“Don’t give me that ‘sir’ crap, Ann,” Phoenix said. “I didn’t pick you to lay the extreme protocol fo
rmality stuff on me when we’re in private—I know you’re not bred for it, which is why I chose you to run with me in a last-second primary and general election blitzkrieg campaign. We lucked out and won, in the narrowest of margins ever recorded.
“But sometimes I feel like I’m spinning my wheels,” Phoenix went on. “The economy is still in the tank and there seems to be no end in sight. I’ve cut the budget and tax rates down to bare bones, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting anything very much. At the same time, China and Russia are pushing forward with reclaiming old empires and challenging us everywhere.” He paused for a moment, his brow furrowing, lost in thought; then: “Ann, am I presiding over a failed republic? Is the United States . . . done?”
“Done? What do you mean?”
“I mean . . . I mean, we just lost an airplane over the South China Sea, and my most knowledgeable adviser tells me to ‘be careful’ in deploying search-and-rescue forces in the area,” Phoenix said. “Years ago, the United States moved where it wanted, when it wanted, and we never considered other nations’ concerns, especially in a crisis situation. Now, even with an absolutely critical and sensitive emergency event such as this, we seem to be hamstrung by caution. We’re afraid of offending China. Our own sailors are down, perhaps by hostile intent, but we’re still afraid of offending the People’s Republic of China. Why? Is this right? How did we get to this point?”
“First of all, Ken, Herbert is an academic and an administrator,” Ann said a bit testily, stepping back into the Situation Room with the president. “We hired him because he has an encyclopedic mind, speaks both Russian and Mandarin along with six other languages, and can organize everything from individuals to entire cabinet-level departments better than anyone we’ve ever seen. But he’s just a bureaucrat. He lacks vision. He needs guidance and direction.
“You, on the other hand, are a doer, a man with leadership qualities and a vision for the future,” Ann went on. “You decided that the best way to fix the economy was to cut taxes, cut the size of government, reorganize the military, and stimulate growth, reinvestment, and hiring by cutting rules and regulations that were squeezing businesses. You made a decision, charted a course, moved forward, and pushed your ideas through Congress in record time.