by Dale Brown
“Disengage? Why would I wish that? The whole objective is to occupy and defend the first island chain, not disengage!”
“General, if you don’t allow me to talk President Phoenix down, he could very well retaliate,” Gao said. “I don’t think he will, but he might, especially if we don’t open up a dialogue right away. Now if I can’t convince you to stop this lunacy, at least allow me to contact Phoenix shortly afterward, listen to him, and try to convince him that China will back off.”
“Back off? China will never back off!”
“Then China is doomed to destruction,” Gao said earnestly. “If Phoenix is assured that China only wants peace, we buy more time to build our forces in the South Sea. If we say nothing, or if Phoenix is not convinced, he could be forced to retaliate.”
Zu did not feel convinced in the least, but finally he said, “Very well, talk with him. But do not reveal a thing.”
“That’s the wrong tack, General,” Gao insisted. “We should admit everything.”
“What?” Zu exclaimed. “Why in the world would I do that?”
“General, you have been attacking foreign ships and mobilizing ground forces, and now the president of China has mysteriously disappeared,” Gao said. “I have spent a lot of time in America. Americans are the most paranoid people on the planet, especially when nuclear weapons are potentially involved. They will gear up for thermonuclear war within moments of your attack. I don’t think they’ll retaliate until they get more information, but I guarantee you they’ll target each and every ballistic missile launch pad, radar site, command-and-control center, air defense site, military port, and airfield with cruise missiles. They’ll blot out the sun with waves of cruise missiles.”
“You do not know what you are talking about, Gao.”
“I know exactly what I’m talking about, General,” Gao maintained. “I urge you not to use special weapons against any ships, but if you insist on doing it so you can send a message that you’re taking over the first island chain, you had better be ready for a devastating response from the United States. Their air force and navy may be smaller than it has been in the past eighty years, but I don’t think their cruise missile inventory has shrunk one bit.” Zu was silent, still unconvinced. Gao went on, “You’re chief of the general staff, Zu. You have a large intelligence branch, and you get updates several times a week. What do your experts say?”
“They say that the United States does not have the capability or the stomach for fighting an Asian or Pacific war, Gao,” Zu said. “They say they barely have enough resources to defend their Pacific islands. They say they would have to rely on support from friends and allies in Asia while they mobilized, which could take years and devastate the economies and military resources of several countries in the process. They say that the American government is more concerned with internal security and economic recovery than it is about Asia.”
“I believe all that is true, General,” Gao said. “But mark my words: at the first hint of a Chinese threat against the Aleutian, Mariana, or Hawaiian Islands, real or perceived, the United States will strike with everything they have, including nuclear weapons. Everything. We must convince them that China is not on the path to war.”
Finally, Gao Xudong sensed that Zu appeared to be thinking about what the acting president was saying. On his end of the line, Zu stubbed out his cigarette. “What do you suggest, Gao?” he asked irritably.
“Allow me to tell them everything,” Gao replied, “including about how you downed the patrol plane and search helicopters.” Zu’s eyes widened at that remark, but he remained silent. “Blame it all on Zhou. I’ll convince them that Zhou was insane and ordered all those attacks because he was obsessed with any foreign presence in the first island chain. You were just following orders, or perhaps Zhou bypassed you and went right to Admiral Zhen or whoever it is in charge of naval forces out there, because you resisted the idea of attacking the Americans. Then you have to cancel all the ridiculous restrictions on movements within the first island chain and remove all naval forces to our territorial waters immediately.”
“The first island chain is within our territorial waters!”
“I agree with you, General, but you know the Americans won’t accept it,” Gao said. “You must pull the aircraft carrier battle groups to within three hundred kilometers of the mainland—not three hundred from Nansha or Xisha Dao, but from the mainland. If you do that, and ask that the United States demilitarizes the South China Sea as well, I think they will agree.”
Zu thought about it for several moments, pulling out another cigarette, then throwing it on his desk without lighting up. “Very well,” he said finally. “You may speak with Phoenix. Admit everything. Offer to pull our naval forces back. But if they do not agree, or if they ask for more concessions, China retakes the South Sea.”
“They’ll accept it,” Gao said confidently. “They’ll be angry as hell, but they’ll accept. I just hope Phoenix does not have an itchy finger on the red button.”
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
A SHORT TIME LATER
Although the crashed Z-9 helicopter masked the sounds coming from the Avenger heading away from it, it did not cover the sound from the Chinese Y-8 patrol plane coming in from the north. But it did conceal the sound of passive sonobuoys being dropped in its path . . .
. . . and the sound of a single depth charge, a BLU-89E Kepà debo, or Terrible Wave, being dropped several minutes later.
Resembling an oil barrel with stabilization fins on one end and a sonar dome on the other, the BLU-89E released from the bomb bay of the Y-8 patrol plane and disappeared into the South China Sea. Its sonar activated automatically in passive mode, and it began to steer itself to the damaged Taiwanese submarine as it descended through the ocean. As the submarine began to increase the distance between them—the depth charge was sinking straight down, while the submarine was sailing ahead—it activated its active sonar to get a more precise distance to its target.
“Con, Sonar, loud splash directly above us, could be a torpedo or depth charge,” the sonar operator aboard the Taiwanese submarine Avenger reported. “No propulsion sounds yet. Possible depth charge.”
“No one uses depth charges anymore,” Captain Yao Mei-Yueh said half aloud. He was afraid it might be another of the Chinese rocket-powered torpedoes. “All stop. Rig for ultraquiet,” he ordered. If it was, he didn’t have the steering capability or speed to try to outmaneuver it with countermeasures like the last time. Better to sit quietly and hope the torpedo didn’t detect him. He knew the torpedo dropped straight down into the sea, and if it didn’t detect any target it simply kept on descending until it buried itself in the sea bottom or self-destructed. “Anything, Sonar?” he asked quietly on intercom.
“Nothing, sir.”
Maybe they lucked out again, Yao thought. He decided to wait a few more minutes and then . . .
And then he heard it—the unmistakable pings of a powerful active sonar, very close. “Con, Sonar, active sonar, range two thousand yards, bearing—”
He never finished that report. The one-kiloton nuclear warhead in the BLU-89E detonated less than a mile behind the Avenger, and the red-hot undersea fireball completely engulfed the submarine. The fireball created a bubble of superheated steam that expanded at hundreds of miles an hour, creating a surge of seawater that cracked the submarine into pieces in an instant. When the weight of the seawater exceeded the pressure of the bubble, it collapsed into itself, creating a second surge of ocean water in the opposite direction. As the bubble compressed, it superheated the water once again, creating another rapidly expanding bubble of energy and another fast-moving wall of water, like a living, breathing tsunami.
The explosion was deep enough that all that was detected on the surface was a dome of water and steam less than fifty feet high, and as the steam from the bubble vented into the atmosphere the dome quickly dissipated. A few of the Chinese aircraft carrier Zheng He’s smaller escorts were rocked by th
e sudden reversing ocean surges, and a few watchstanders thought they noticed something that looked like a low cloud or fog bank on the horizon, but nothing more.
But the sudden appearance of the white-hot steam dome in the middle of the cooler South China Sea was detected by the American Space-Based Infrared System heat-sensing satellites, and another report was sent through the chain of command.
NINE
THE WHITE HOUSE OVAL OFFICE, WASHINGTON, D.C.
A FEW HOURS LATER
“It was a deliberate and aggressive act of war on the part of the Taiwanese Nationalists, Mr. President,” Li Peiyan, the People’s Republic of China’s ambassador to the United States said in excellent English. The fifty-year-old former army general looked very stiff, moving his entire body instead of just his head as he addressed President Phoenix and Vice President Page in their Oval Office meeting, and his very large hands were formed into fists and laid atop his thighs, as if expecting to use them at any moment. With Phoenix and Page were Secretary of State Herbert Kevich and National Security Adviser William Glenbrook. “Our aircraft carrier battle group was being stalked by that Taiwanese submarine, and a helicopter was shot down when the sub was discovered. Every nation on Earth has the right to defend itself!”
“That is nonsense, Mr. Ambassador,” President Phoenix said. “China has no right to impose restrictions and issue ultimatums on any vessel operating in the South China Sea.”
“Mr. President, Chinese vessels have come under fire from Vietnam, Taiwan, and even from the United States . . .”
“That is nonsense as well,” Vice President Ann Page interjected. “Our Coast Guard helicopters did not open fire on anyone—they were unarmed, as was our P-8 Poseidon patrol plane.”
“Our intelligence reports say otherwise, madame,” Li said. “We have a complete list of the weapons that are routinely carried by your aircraft, and they match with what our crews on the scene reported. As for that Taiwanese submarine: it was an obvious challenge to President Zhou’s instructions that were designed to eliminate the very threat that existed out there—an attack by a submerged submarine on a Chinese vessel. Do you expect China not to respond?”
“Our analysts tell us that the People’s Liberation Army Navy attacked with a nuclear depth charge, Mr. Ambassador,” President Phoenix exclaimed.
“That is an outrageous lie, sir!” Li retorted. “China has pledged a no-first-use policy . . .”
“Yes, you did—after you attacked Guam with nuclear weapons ten years ago!” Ann interjected.
“I would very much appreciate not being interrupted, madame,” Li snapped, looking like some kind of automaton as he stiffly turned to address the vice president. “Mr. President, I have no explanation for that explosion, which our sea-surveillance satellites and carrier battle group vessels also detected. Perhaps that was a nuclear-powered submarine, or it was a diesel-electric submarine carrying nuclear weapons. The blast was relatively small, so perhaps it was not even a nuclear device—we have not yet had a chance to investigate. But the fact is, sir, that a Taiwanese submarine attacked a Chinese aircraft and warship, and our navy responded. The same with the Vietnamese warship—it attacked a Chinese patrol vessel, and long-range weapons were used to defend our ship because the patrol vessel did not have the weapons to defend itself against the Vietnamese frigate. China is not the aggressor here, sir—it is Taiwan, Vietnam, and the United States, and we believe we are being threatened by Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and Indonesia as well. China has a right to defend its territory and its warships.”
“China must lift restrictions on warships transiting the South China Sea, and do it immediately,” President Phoenix said angrily. “Otherwise China will see itself being matched two to one—for each surface vessel, submarine, or aircraft you station in the South China Sea, the United States and its partners will shadow them with at least double that number.”
“That is a serious and dangerous escalation of forces in that region, sir,” Ambassador Li said. “Think carefully of what you pronounce, Mr. President. A two-to-one match might be construed as preparation for a blockade of China’s port cities or even a general war, sir.”
“Think of it as you wish, Mr. Ambassador,” Phoenix said. “The South China Sea is not China’s sole possession, and it does not have the right to wantonly attack ships and aircraft there, especially peaceful, unarmed aircraft or nonthreatening ships. As for preparation for war, Mr. Ambassador: the United States has been closely monitoring large troop movements all throughout your country, especially along the coasts. It appears to us that you’re mobilizing troops for action.” He held up a hand just as Li was going to speak. “I don’t need to hear your denials or flimsy explanations, sir. Our intelligence is accurate, and I assure you, the United States and its partners around the world that we are sharing our information with are responding accordingly. Our actions will be swift and accurate.”
Ambassador Li Peiyan shot to his feet, all semblance of stiffness instantly gone. “That, sir, sounds like a threat to me,” he said, “and that is what I will convey to my superiors. I have already been recalled by my government. Good day, sir, madame.” And he strode to the door, which was opened for him from outside the Oval Office by a Secret Service agent.
“Well, that went very well,” Kevich said sarcastically under his breath but loud enough to be heard by everyone.
“Get off it, Herbert,” Ann Page snapped. “The Chinese just set off a nuclear explosion in the South China Sea, and they nearly sank a Vietnamese warship with a supersonic cruise missile. Do you think they still care about diplomacy and peace? They are not just asserting themselves—they are putting the world on notice that they will use any and all means, including nuclear weapons, to keep warships out.”
President Phoenix nodded but remained silent for several moments; then he picked up the phone. “Get me the secretary of defense right away.”
While he was waiting, he pulled a card from his pocket, looked at his watch, and did a fast calculation in his head. He didn’t have to wait long: “Yes, Mr. President,” Fredrick Hayes responded.
“Fredrick, put us at DEFCON Three,” the president said, then read off the authentication code he had computed, using the current date-time group.
“Yes, sir,” Hayes said, and he read off his own authentication code, which the president checked and verified. Any event involving movement or employment of nuclear weapons required coded verification and a two-man authorization. DEFCON, or Defense Readiness Condition, was a gradual change in military readiness for nuclear war. DEFCON Five was the lowest level of readiness; DEFCON One meant that nuclear war was imminent. The United States had been at DEFCON One immediately following the American Holocaust; on DEFCON Two after a cease-fire had been negotiated with the Russians following the American counterattacks; on DEFCON Three several months later as tensions eased around the world; then down to DEFCON Four about a year after the attacks, where it had been ever since. DEFCON Three resulted in ships being put to sea, leaves canceled, battle staffs formed, contingency plans put in place, and all available aircraft and ships loaded and made ready.
“Secretary Hayes has relayed the order to Northern Command, U.S. Strategic Command, and Air Force Global Strike Command, sir,” National Security Adviser William Glenbrook reported a few minutes later, “and we are at DEFCON Three. The posture change is being relayed to NATO.”
“I’m going to need a complete rundown on exactly what we can bring to bear against China,” the president said angrily. “I’m not going to back down. China will rue the day they decided to set off a nuke. I want to park an aircraft carrier battle group opposite each one of their largest military ports.”
“That may not be a good idea, sir,” Glenbrook said, his face a mask of deep concern. “We don’t dare send a carrier strike group out there now, sir, until we figure out who’s in charge and get an idea of what they intend to do. Whoever’s really in charge in China—Zhou, or more likely General Zu himself�
��has just let the nuclear genie out of the bottle. They could just as likely hit our carriers with a nuclear carrier-killer ballistic or cruise missile. That could kill thousands of sailors and destroy billions of dollars’ worth of hardware with just one warhead.”
“I’m not going to let that happen,” President Phoenix said. “I want every known storage facility and launch site for those carrier-killer ballistic missiles and cruise missiles targeted by Tomahawk cruise missiles. If we don’t have enough cruise missiles in range to cover all the known targets, I want preparations made to put more ships and subs to sea that can fire Tomahawks. I want as many ballistic missile defense ships and ground systems deployed as possible in the Pacific. I want as many bombers and fighters as possible deployed to bases in the Pacific, armed appropriately with whatever they need to destroy China’s air defense and command-and-control system, penetrate their airspace, and take out ballistic missile sites.” He paused, expecting the usual hesitant reaction from Herbert Kevich, but he didn’t get it this time.
“All that is going to take time, sir,” Glenbrook said. “We have only two aircraft carrier battle groups available right now in the Pacific. Under DEFCON Three we can probably get another put to sea in a few months, but the other is in extensive maintenance and won’t be available for a year at the earliest.”
“Then we need other solutions, Bill,” the president said. “We have other ships, cruisers and destroyers, that can fire cruise missiles. We need to figure out a way to get them the same long-range air protection that the carriers have.” He thought for a moment then said, “Ann, we need to talk to the leadership in Congress about getting funding for more of McLanahan’s bombers, and then to resurrect the Space Defense Force and the carriers I canceled last year. They’re the only solutions we have if China is going to continue to throw its weight around like this. We need to brief them on the DEFCON change—that’ll be a good time to hit them up for the money. Make it a closed-door classified briefing in the Situation Room—I’m going to tell them everything we know about what China has been up to lately.”