Looking at her watch, she decided this was as good a stopping point as any and shut off her equipment. In the morning she would report the discovery to her thesis advisor. For now she would celebrate her apparent find with beer and pizza. Identifying new asteroids wasn’t a major discovery, but it was a first for Mary. No matter how insignificant to the body of science, the joy of discovery was the same.
* * * * *
The next morning, Mary Ludford showed the images to her advisor, Dr. Jung Xiou, who agreed with her conclusion that the unidentified bodies were most likely asteroids. “It’s not my specialty,” Dr. Xiou admitted, “but they appear to be fairly large. When were these made?”
She checked her log even though she was sure of the answer. “Two weeks ago,” she replied.
“Okay, you need to make out a report of the discovery and get a copy to MPC,” he said, referring to the Minor Planet Center of the International Astronomical Union, which serves as a clearinghouse for astronomy reporting. “I’ll call and let them know to watch for it.”
“Great,” she said. “I’ll get right to work.”
“I’ll also call Dr. Waters at Mount Wilson to see if we can schedule some additional images.”
“Good luck. I understand they’re pretty booked up.”
“They always are,” Xiou responded. “So, how is the rest of your work progressing?”
“Plodding along. I’ll have an interim report ready to show you in about a week.” Dr. Xiou nodded approval. “Let me know what you find out from Mount Wilson,” she said, as she started to leave.
“Of course,” Xiou answered, going back to his work. “Oh, Mary,” he called, catching her before she got out the door, “have you come up with names for them?”
Mary Ludford knew that initially the asteroids would be assigned a code based on when they were first sighted. Later, when the asteroids were sighted again on their next orbit, they would officially come to be known by the names she selected. She also knew that the convention for naming asteroids is pretty much left up to the imagination of the discoverer. There are some named for Greek and Roman gods, others for scientists, political figures, poets, and philosophers; a few are named for cities; there are even four discovered in the early 1990s named John, Paul, George, and Ringo. “I think I like Calvin, Hobbes, and Wormwood,” she said with a smile.
The idea evoked only confusion from Dr. Xiou. “Calvin and Hobbes I think I understand. They’re from that old comic strip on your coffee cup. But Wormwood? You mean like in Hamlet?” he asked, referring to a line from the Shakespearean play.[20]
“No,” Mary answered. “Miss Wormwood. That was the name of Calvin’s first grade teacher.”[21]
“Well, that’s a trivia question I would have missed,” Xiou confessed.
“I guess it’s kinda silly, really,” Mary admitted, becoming a little embarrassed. “If you don’t like it, maybe I could . . .”
“No, it’s fine,” he said reassuringly. “I was just sort of hoping you’d name one after me.”
“Who could pronounce it?” she said with a laugh.
* * * * *
Two weeks passed before Mount Wilson Observatory in California could schedule another set of images of the three asteroids Mary Ludford had discovered. What the images revealed was significant enough to merit a face-to-face call. Dr. Jung Xiou’s wall screen blinked on and Dr. Waters appeared life-sized before them. Dr. Xiou introduced Mary to Dr. Waters.
“Hi, Mary. I’m glad you’re here to see this,” Waters said.
“Hello, Dr. Waters,” Mary responded. “It’s nice to finally meet you.”
“You, too, Mary; and please, call me Jim.” Mary nodded agreement.
“Frankly, Mary,” Waters began, “what you’ve found has got all of us a little stumped out here.” Waters’ image was reduced to a small window at the top right on Xiou’s wall display and was replaced by what Mary recognized as one of the images on which she had made her discovery. “This first shot,” Waters began, “is one of those taken last month, with the three objects appearing here, here, and here.” As he spoke, he circled each of the objects in turn. “The second picture,” he continued, as the image changed, “was taken last night. You’ll note that the albedo of each of the objects — again, here, here, and here — has increased noticeably as they’ve moved closer to Earth.”
“Excuse me, Jim,” Dr. Xiou said. “You keep referring to them as objects. Are they asteroids or not?”
“The best answer I can give you at this point,” Waters answered, “is, I guess so. But their orbits are much more like what we’d expect from comets than from asteroids, with an aphelion well beyond the orbit of Neptune and a perihelion halfway between the orbits of Mercury and Venus. What has us stumped is where they came from and why we haven’t seen them before. Based on their course and speed, we’ve plotted their orbits and have determined that they are definitely Earth-crossing, which would make them Apollo-class asteroids, and yet none of our previous surveys has identified them.”
“Any theories?” Xiou asked.
“Well, according to our projections, their orbits bring them inside the orbit of Jupiter for a period of only about two and a half years of their fifteen-year circuit. It’s possible that we’ve simply not been looking in the right place when they’ve been near enough to be of interest, but, frankly, I doubt that with the amount of attention that’s been focused on the Apollo-class asteroids, that everyone could have missed three asteroids of this size. We’re going through the archives researching that right now. Another possibility is that they are wandering planetoids from outside our solar systems that have only recently been captured by the sun’s gravitation.
“The two asteroids closest to the Earth, which have been designated 2031 KD and 2031 KE — I understand you’re calling them Calvin and Hobbes . . .” Mary smiled and nodded “. . . are only about 350,000 kilometers apart, which is relatively close. The largest one, 2031 KF — the one you’ve named Wormwood — is lagging approximately 67 million kilometers behind. As I mentioned, all three of them are fairly large as the Apollo asteroids go. The first one, 2031 KD, is irregular, roughly kidney-shaped, and has an average diameter of about twenty kilometers. The second, 2031 KE, is spherical and has a diameter of about three kilometers. 2031 KF, though, is a monster with a diameter of nearly fifty kilometers, which would make it the largest of the Earth-crossing asteroids, dwarfing even Eros, which is oblong with a width of about twenty kilometers.”
“How close will their orbits bring them to the Earth?” Dr. Xiou asked.
“That’s why I’m calling.” Dr. Waters rotated the image on the screen to give a computer-generated overhead view of the solar system between the sun and a point beyond the orbit of Mars where the asteroids were located in the most recent photographs. At the upper center of the screen were the three asteroids, which appeared as no more than faint specks of light against the vastness of even this tiny fraction of the solar system. “We ran the data we have on the asteroids’ paths and came up with a simulation. This is what we got.”
Waters started the simulation and each of the bodies began to move, tracing out their orbits across the screen. Quickly the asteroids moved through a steep arch, dropping counterclockwise toward the lower left. In the upper left corner of the screen a digital counter showed the passing dates as the simulation progressed. Lower down on the screen, the Earth traversed its nearly circular path around the sun.
As the simulation continued, a sick feeling came over Dr. Xiou. Mary Ludford gasped and covered her mouth with her hand. As the counter clicked off each additional day, the orbits of the two leading asteroids brought them closer and closer to the Earth, and a conclusion began to appear frighteningly inescapable. Just as a collision seemed imminent, the picture zoomed in for a much closer view, from which it was evident that the first two asteroids would actually just miss the Earth.
“As you can see, we’re talking about two very close passes,” Dr. Waters said as the two
asteroids passed by the Earth, barely avoiding a collision. Waters stopped the simulation for a moment in order to elaborate on what they had just seen. The simulation’s calendar stopped on July third. “We’re running these estimates through again,” he said, “and watching the asteroids very closely, but it appears that 2031 KD could come as close as 800 kilometers. 2031 KE may get even closer, within about 500 kilometers. It could even come in brief contact with the outermost atmosphere. If so, then based on the trajectory, it will simply skip off the way a stone skips across water. Both asteroids should provide an exciting opportunity for some once-in-a-lifetime viewing. We estimate that at the expected distances, 2031 KD will appear in the sky more than twice as large as the moon, and if 2031 KE does indeed skip off the atmosphere, there will be some fantastic fireworks.”
“That’s great, Jim,” Xiou said, relieved. “But I have to admit, you had me worried.”
“Well, that was the good news.”
Xiou groaned.
“The problem is with 2031 KF. The orbits of all three have a similar inclination, but 2031 KF’s orbit is much larger. Right now they’re fairly close in cosmic terms, but their paths will continue to grow farther apart as they come closer to the sun. What that means, as you’ll see when we run the rest of the simulation, is that the first two asteroids will intersect the Earth’s orbit on July third at point A.” As he spoke, a white capital A appeared on the screen. “Were their orbits more alike, so that 2031 KF would also intersect somewhere near point A, then by the time it got there, the Earth would be 64 million miles farther through its orbit, and well out of danger. Instead, if our best calculations are correct, 2031 KF will intersect approximately forty-three days later, on August 15, at point B.” A capital B now appeared below and to the left of the A.”
Waters restarted the simulation. The third and largest of the asteroids had been just beyond the scope of the close-up and so, had momentarily disappeared, but now reemerged just to the upper left of the screen. The vision was quite arresting, and Dr. Waters could clearly hear the collective gasp as the simulation played through.
“A collision?” Xiou asked, struggling to maintain his professionalism despite the scene unfolding before him. It wasn’t necessary for Dr. Waters to respond; in another moment, an instant after the counter changed to August 15, the asteroid struck. In the simulation the Earth, with a diameter of about eight thousand miles, merely absorbed the much smaller body and continued about its orbit. Although that might accurately represent the view from space, the view from Earth would be far more dramatic.
“At this point the simulation is based on a limited amount of data,” Waters allowed. “It’s still possible that my calculations could be wrong. We’re going to get some additional shots of the asteroids tonight and try to tie this thing down, but it appears we’re looking at the possibility of a direct hit.”
There was a long, uncomfortable silence, and then Dr. Xiou asked, “How much damage are we talking about?”
“From a combination of primary and secondary effects,” Dr. Waters answered, “the destruction of all life on the planet.”
Chapter 3
When Worlds Collide
Two days later
New York
Ambassador Jeremiah Ngordon of Chad, who represented Western Africa and whose turn in the rotation it was to serve as president of the UN Security Council, called the special session to order. The meeting had been requested by Dr. Alsie Johnson of the United Nations Space Science Foundation and Ambassador Hella Winkler of Germany, who had replaced Christopher as the alternate from Europe when he was elected as Europe’s primary. Winkler had also replaced Christopher as chairperson of the World Peace Organization (WPO), and it was in that capacity that she now joined Dr. Johnson.
By now everyone allowed into this closed gathering was aware of its purpose. Nevertheless, following the requisite introductions of guests and obligatory statements of mutual admiration, which always precede events where politicians are involved, the proceedings began with a summary of the events that had precipitated it. Among the panel of eight scientists and three WPO generals on hand to brief the Security Council were Dr. James Waters of Mount Wilson Observatory and Dr. Jung Xiou of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Mary Ludford, who had discovered the asteroids, was also present, but it wasn’t anticipated that she would address the council.
The session was closed to the press and public, but there was no intent to keep the information secret for long. The only thing worse than letting the truth out would be having it leak out uncontrolled. It was important that the information be presented to the public in the calmest possible language and tone. Science believed it had the solution, and now government would provide the needed finances and logistical support.
Decker Hawthorne, whose office was gatekeeper for information from the meeting, showed no evidence of distress, but he was keenly aware that there was far more to this matter than anyone in this room, other than he and Christopher, could begin to understand. No one here had yet made any connection between the asteroids and what the KDP leaders, John and Cohen, had prophesied five months earlier. But then why should they? Most of the people in this room didn’t even know who John and Cohen were; those who did assumed they were just garden-variety kooks. Still, by this time no one could have avoided at least hearing stories of their peculiar followers who had spread out to every country in the world.
Dr. Alsie Johnson made a few opening statements, introduced the guests, and then passed the microphone over to Dr. Waters, who provided a basic explanation of the threat and then narrated a slightly updated version of the simulation he had shown to Dr. Xiou and Mary Ludford two days earlier. Since then, refinements of the calculations found that the first and second asteroids would pass on opposite sides of the Earth. The first and larger of the two would pass at a distance of approximately four thousand miles, traveling from northwest to southeast and visible over much of North and South America on the night of July 3. The second asteroid would pass three hours later, at approximately one thousand miles distance, on the daylight side of the planet, over much of northwest and southeast Asia, the Philippines, Australia, and New Guinea.
The real threat was the third and largest asteroid, 2031 KF. As indicated by Dr. Waters’ initial calculations, 2031 KF was headed directly for the Earth and would arrive, if nothing was done to stop it, on August 15, forty-three days after the first two asteroids had safely passed. The human race, however, would not go without a fight. Modern science stood ready to prevent the cataclysm. Ironically, its tools would be the same devices, which before now had themselves threatened to destroy life on the planet.
Dr. Terri Hall, one of the foremost experts on asteroids, took over when Dr. Waters completed his portion of the briefing. “Based on the albedo, or reflectivity, of each of the asteroids, all three appear to be class-M,” she began. “Typically, that would make them about ninety percent metal — mostly iron and nickel — and as much as ten percent rocky materials. As to their origins, based on their inclination, we believe they are Hungaria-type asteroids — noted for their highly inclined orbit — from the asteroid belts between Jupiter and Mars, and that they have somehow been diverted from their previous paths.” Dr. Hall brought up highly magnified images of the three asteroids in a split screen format.
“We’ve found no consistent evidence,” she continued, “that the asteroids have suffered a collision sufficient to cause a major shift in their orbits. We must conclude, therefore, that some unusual gravitational effect has caused the divergence. The planet Jupiter can play havoc with the orbits of main belt asteroids, but at the time we calculate that they left their normal orbits, Jupiter was on the other side of the sun. There are, however, a few other theories.
“Most compatible with the available evidence is that the asteroids have been pulled from their orbits by a body small enough to have otherwise escaped our attention as it passed through our solar system. Such a body would have to poss
ess an extremely strong gravity for its size, which would suggest either a small chunk of a white dwarf star – thrown off millions of years ago from a collision of two white dwarfs – or else a very small black hole.
“In its white dwarf stage, a star the size of our sun could be compacted to a sphere with a diameter of about twelve miles. If two such stars collided, pieces of the stars would be thrown off at tremendous speeds. Because of its size, a piece of white dwarf could pass through our solar system and go completely unnoticed, and if it passed close enough to an asteroid it could certainly disrupt its orbit. The high iron content of all three asteroids tends to lend credence to this hypothesis since some white dwarf stars — for example, the star PG 1031+234[22] — are known to possess magnetic fields as high as 700 million gauss, a level that approaches the maximum theoretical strength possible.
“As for the second theory, while most frequently, we think of black holes as very large, theoretically, they could exist with the mass of a small moon compressed to the size of a few atoms.[23] The gravitational field of a black hole is strong enough to trap light, so in appearance it’s simply a region of darkness and could also pass through the solar system unobserved. And even the most infinitesimal black hole would have a gravitational field strong enough to pull asteroids from their normal orbits.”
The panel continued the briefing for another twenty minutes, discussing theories, showing charts and simulations, giving historical examples to demonstrate their points. Finally, Ambassador Yuri Kruszkegin, taking advantage of a brief pause, asked the question that was on everyone’s mind. “Can we conclude from what you’ve said and the documents you’ve provided, that it’s your recommendation that we use nuclear weapons to destroy the third asteroid?”
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