He turned on his best charming smile, and the others nodded in agreement
“Now, let us return to the current situation, gentlemen.”
Admiral Stark nodded and returned to the map on the wall
“We must function under the assumption that Admiral Halsey and his Enterprise task force are now out of the fight, as is the group accompanying Minneapolis. Indianapolis is far out of range, and I should add, the accounting of fuel resources that we had on December sixth”--he paused to look down at a note pad on the table-- “prevents her from any rapid pursuit.”
“What is the fuel situation at Pearl?” Stimson asked
Stark shook his head. “The only reports we have so far, again via the civilian radio contacts, are that much, perhaps most of the entire oil reserve, four million barrels, is at this moment burning, either as a result of the third air strike or the nighttime bombardment. Indianapolis and its escorts cannot sustain a high-speed pursuit of more than twenty-four hours without running dry.”
Again, no one spoke. For a nation that was used to swimming in oil, with vast reserves stockpiled where needed, the news was shocking
“Then I think, gentlemen, to maximize this time together we should address four issues,” the President interjected. “Let me cover the first two of them
“First, should orders be sent now to Lexington to avoid all contact? And second, are the islands of the Hawaiian chain subject to further attack and perhaps occupation? If they are indeed to be attacked or invaded, we must address that now.”
Stark cleared his throat again as all eyes turned to him
“Sir, our radio communications are spotty at best. As I have already informed you, our only reliable source, until cable is reconnected to Hawaii, is via our monitoring out of San Francisco. We are not even sure if we can raise Lexington, and so far Admiral Newton has, except for a few very brief attempts via scout planes far removed from the location of their ship, maintained strict radio silence, as is proper.”
“Do you think the Japanese have a fix on him?”
“I doubt it, sir. They did linger near Oahu this morning, perhaps in part to cover their damaged battleship. We know that two of their carriers were not west of Oahu, but actually to the southwest, those being the carriers that Halsey struck later in the morning. There are undoubtedly several more of their carriers somewhere out there as well, to either west or northwest. I doubt they would split their fleet out of mutual support range. Therefore, I think they will attempt to link their carriers back together and steam westward.”
“Why not resume the attack on Oahu?” the President asked. “From the sounds of it, our defenses there are now on the ropes.”
“Oil is for them just as deep a concern as it is now for us. We must assume they have reserve tankers awaiting them in the Marshalls for refueling. They most likely believe they have finished off our carriers to the south. If I were their commander, I would spread my carriers wide but still close enough to be within mutual support range, and do a western sweep, hoping to pick up whatever is left. They must assume we have three, perhaps even four carriers in the Pacific, when in reality we have only two, as Saratoga is still on the West Coast for refit.”
“When will the Japanese break silence?” Marshall asked, in his first comment of the meeting. “And I must assume by what you are saying that this task force’s mission was to attack, destroy our battleships and carriers, pull out, and not support a general invasion.”
Stark nodded toward him as if thanking the head of the Army for his question
“I will stake my reputation on the fact that this is not the preliminary for an invasion. The reports the British have so far indicate that a full-scale movement is developing against Singapore. The Japanese are occupying Guam. They are bombing General MacArthur in the Philippines. Their overall strategic goal will not be Hawaii but instead southward into the Dutch East Indies to get the oil they need so desperately from the fields in the Indies. After that they may switch their target to Hawaii or India or perhaps even Australia. First, they simply must get to the oil supplies before they run out of oil in Japan itself. Their stockpiles are very limited and will not sustain a long war. They must have oil. No, sir, I think Pearl Harbor was a spoiling raid. They are not fools. If they have war-gamed this out at all, they would know that to even have a remote hope of occupying Oahu they would have to commit three or more divisions of troops to counterbalance our infantry there, and the tens of thousands of naval and marine personnel that would resist along with thousands of reservists and even civilians. No, they can not take that island now
“Even to grab one of the secondary islands, Molokai, for example, and try to develop a landing field there would require tremendous logistical support as a follow-up. I think you would concur that creating a usable airfield and then supporting it is a tremendous undertaking. Sir, I recall some reports, studies of what could be called the philosophy of their naval forces. It is all about rapid offensive strike, what won their war against Russia thirty-five years ago. They lack, however, depth, the nuts-and-bolts things like logistical support, extra tankers, specially trained units for building bases and airfields, the stuff of a long-term war. They have built a superb navy, but it is a navy designed for a sharp, decisive strike for a short, decisive war. I, therefore, would be surprised if the Japanese would make such an attempt in their opening move against Hawaii, while at the same time committing to so many other fronts
“Unless we are sadly mistaken in our analysis,” Stark continued, “I would venture that their next step, after this spoiling raid to sink our battleships and carriers, would be Wake and Midway. They could use those islands as their logistical base, since both are within support distance from the Marshall Islands, and then challenge us for possession of the Hawaiian chain later. Also, by seizing those two islands, they snatch from us bases and airfields that have already been built and put them back into operation within a matter of days, rather than having to build new ones from scratch, which for them could take months.”
Marshall nodded, and the President could sense his agreement with this well-thought-out review
“As to the first part of your question, Admiral Newton will break radio silence when he is certain that it no longer matters, that is, when the Japanese have a confirmed fix on his location. Until then he will stay under cover.”
“What do you think he is doing?” FDR asked
Stark paused for a moment
“Going in harm’s way, sir, the same as Halsey. He has a full complement on board, over one hundred aircraft. If he has monitored the attack by Halsey’s aircraft, which has claimed a kill of at least one of their carriers, he will most likely steam east or southeastward through the night, and be ready to launch at dawn. The range might very well be close to a hundred miles or less, and if he strikes first, he will inflict grievous harm upon them.”
“Should he not come about and hold back for now till a better assessment can be gained?” Stimson interjected. The President could sense the question was not a serious one. The Secretary was playing more the role of devil’s advocate at this point
Stark shook his head. “If he can surprise them first, he might strike a fatal blow to one, two, or more of their carriers, and frankly that would be payback and more. I hope he goes for them.”
“Should we communicate this?” Marshall asked
“No, sir. Within the confines of this room we know that Naval Intelligence has successfully broken some of the Japanese diplomatic codes this last year but with far less success for their military codes. In contrast, if an order comes from this office to seek out and engage, we must assume the Japanese will monitor it, and we must assume they have gained access to our codes as well, until it is absolutely proven differently. I think silence is best, and let Newton and his task force fight their battle as they see fit.”
FDR slowly nodded in agreement
“The positions of the Japanese fleet and this B-17 Army airplane which found them,
” FDR said, making it a point of nodding in acknowledgment to Stimson and Marshall. “Do you think their navigator is correct in his reports?”
“I believe so,” Marshall interjected. “Remember, sir, the name Flying Fortress was first used not to describe its defensive firepower, but instead to imply it can serve literally as a flying fortress that can range hundreds of miles out to sea to protect our coastlines. The navigators trained over these last few years have been well drilled in the art of fixing a position out to sea and accurately reporting it.”
The President could sense the touch of pride in Marshall’s voice
“It was good enough to guide in Admiral Halsey’s second strike and perhaps sink one of their carriers. I believe the position is clear and indicates as well that the Japanese are now steaming toward the Marshall Islands.”
“I concur,” Stimson said
The President summarized: “Then in essence, our agreement here is for us to do nothing for the moment regarding Hawaii. To sit back, wait, and let our commanders in the field fight their battles.”
The other four in the room nodded
“Mr. President, you said there were four issues to discuss and I think I can surmise what the others are,” Stimson interjected
“Go on.”
“What was alluded to first. The question of sabotage on the island of Oahu. There are tens of thousands of Japanese on that island, and it could be fair to assume that a significant number, even an insignificant number of but a few hundred, could raise havoc. Losing the cable connection to the mainland could have been a lucky hit from their bombardment, but it could also have been just two or three agents and a suitcase full of explosives.”
He paused to look over at Knox
“Sir, months back we had every reason to believe that Japanese agents were monitoring our forces on the island and reporting in. They are most likely still doing it.”
“What do you suggest?” FDR asked directly
“Place under incarceration every Japanese resident on the island at least until this crisis of the moment is resolved.”
The President said nothing, leaning back, closing his eyes
“Is that practical? Hawaii has a very high proportion of citizens of Japanese descent. I doubt if the islands could function if we did this. Do you really believe the sabotage threat is that great?”
“We do,” Stimson replied
“Sir, I would be cautious,” Marshall interjected, and FDR turned to him
“Go on.”
“The resources needed to round up tens of thousands on short notice would be daunting. Then where to put them on an island that small at such short notice, then feed and house them? And frankly, sir, given the passions of the moment out there, it could turn very ugly.”
“How so?”
“Sir, as you know, we have had racial antagonisms that have flared into riots, lynchings, and mob behavior. We have to be very careful about getting people emotionally enraged against each other.”
Franklin sighed, saying nothing. He could well imagine facing Eleanor if he made such a decision now
“Security around facilities that have survived is undoubtedly in place,” Marshall continued. “I think the suggestion, now, is locking the barn door after the horses have run. Whatever sabotage was planned has most likely been done. And if anything, it seems we overreacted to the threat of sabotage in the way we positioned our planes and ships prior to the attack. If any more attempts are made, then there will be more direct cause. But for the moment I suggest keeping the status quo. If there are enemy agents, let them play their hands, and we will get them then. But I am willing to bet, sir, that the vast majority of Japanese out there, who--remember--left Japan of their own free will years ago, are loyal to America. If we incarcerate them, and the Japanese then do invade, we’ll have created a massive fifth column that might go over to their side rather than stay on our side. I think now is the moment to act with trust.”
“I’ll postpone this one for the moment,” the President finally announced. “Once communications are back up and we can get a better picture of what really happened, I’ll decide then.”
Marshall smiled and nodded his head
“And the fourth point, sir. What about MacArthur?” Knox now interjected, and Franklin could see that here was interservice rivalry playing out. Word had come in that most of MacArthur’s air force had been annihilated in a Japanese air attack hours after Pearl Harbor had been hit
“Sir, frankly I think he should be dismissed now,” Stark announced, “and Wainright put in his place.”
Franklin looked to Stimson and Marshall. He knew that in Marshall’s case, in particular, there was no love lost between them
The fact that MacArthur’s air force was all but wiped out already, caught on the ground long hours after Pearl Harbor was hit, was inexcusable. And yet, to change horses now? If there was one man who had any kind of feel for the troublesome Philippines, it was Douglas, like him or not. His father had been military governor there during the insurrection of forty years ago, and the Philippines had been young Douglas’s first posting after he graduated from West Point
His position was technically a unique one. Though still a member of the United States armed forces, he was, as well, “Field Marshal” of the Philippine Defense Force, the only “field marshal” in the history of the United States military. It was quipped by more than a few of his detractors that he took the position just so he could have more gold “spaghetti” on his hat
He stood unique, a man who could display incredible genius, but also moments that were incredible lapses of judgment, such as his brutal handling of the “Bonus Squatters,” so many of the men in that improvised encampment comrades from the last war, and now this
But to change command now, at this moment? What message would it give? Furthermore, the Filipino government trusted him and looked to him for military leadership. Their confidence must have been severely shaken by Pearl Harbor and the loss of aircraft on the ground in the Philippines. Would relieving America’s most senior general in the earliest days of the war simply collapse any possibility of cooperation between Americans and Filipinos?
Roosevelt shifted uncomfortably in his chair. Though the steel braces were off his legs, spasms of pain were streaking up his back. Constant pain was part of life for him; he had barely slept or lain down since yesterday afternoon
“Given the current situation around Hawaii,” he finally replied, “realistically, what does that mean for the Rainbow plans?”
Marshall sighed, looking over at Stark. Again, he could sense the interservice rivalry
The new Rainbow plans, hammered out over the last few years as addendums to the old Plan Black, war with Germany, and Plan Orange, war with Japan, had been postulated upon a number of points, and a key one was an intact Pacific fleet on the first day of war with either potential enemy
It had always been assumed, since the first Plan Orange evolved out of American occupation of the Philippines and the Japanese victory against Russia in 1905, that if conflict ever erupted between the two nations, it would most likely ignite along the coast of Asia
It was, therefore, postulated that the Japanese would make a thrust to seize the Philippines, rich with resources and one of the finest harbors in the world, Manila, and then her battle fleet would lie in wait, as they had for the Russians prior to their great victory at Tsushima. An American relief force would sortie from Pearl, have to fight its way through the Japanese-controlled waters of the Marshalls and Marianas, and somewhere in the Philippine Sea meet and defeat the Japanese fleet, thereby ending the war with a clear naval victory. It was to be a fulfillment of the doctrine of the legendary turn-of-the-century naval theorist Alfred Mahan, that once an enemy’s primary fleet had been destroyed, victory was a foregone conclusion
It had been generally assumed that the Japanese counterplans envisioned the exact same scenario as well, except, of course, that they would assume they would win the great battl
eship-to-battleship encounter. Their assault on the Philippines would be the bait to draw us out
MacArthur had been sent to the Philippines to create a viable defense force that could stand against a Japanese invasion, built around a backbone of ten to twenty thousand American troops and a modern air force that could resist and perhaps even throw back the first Japanese attack. Then even if the Japanese did seize some of the islands, this force would pin them down until the Navy, with all its might, steamed in to finish it with a climactic battle that would end the war with our victory
The Navy all along had absolutely refused to forward-position any of their heavy ships in Philippine waters, claiming there was no proper logistical support and, as well, that it would leave them completely open to a successful first strike, in the same way the Japanese had launched their first move against the Russians at Port Arthur in 1904, crippling the Russian Pacific fleet by surprise on a Sunday morning
No one, absolutely no one had ever taken seriously the prospect that there would not be a first blow on the Philippines, or even British-held Singapore, but Hawaii instead
And now the bulk of our Pacific fleet rested in the mud of Pearl Harbor, one of our carriers might already be sunk, or at least knocked out of action, and the other was about to face a battle at desperate odds--and the first line of defense in the Philippines, the Army Air Force of B-17s, was only flaming wreckage
The Orange and Rainbow plans had always had two wildly different assumptions. The Army plan postulated that a defensive force in the Philippines could hold out for at least 120 days or more, until such time as the Navy came to the rescue. The Navy plan had always said it would take two years to mobilize the fleet and fight across the Pacific to the Philippines. Because there was no joint planning system, the two services had simply built their plans on their own assumptions. Now it was obvious the Navy could not reach MacArthur in the time he was prepared to hold out. The Army plan had been unrealistic in the planning stages throughout the last ten years, and given the destruction at Pearl Harbor and the news of the near-total annihilation of MacArthur’s air forces as well, it was impossible
Pearl Harbour and Days of Infamy Page 53