16. Fukuyama, xiv.
17. Ibid., 77.
18. Ibid., 48.
19. This is a paraphrase of Bernard Lewis, “The Roots of Muslim Rage: Why So Many Muslims Deeply Resent the West, and Why Their Bitterness Will Not Be Easily Mollified,” The Atlantic Monthly, September 1990, 48.
20. See Benjamin Barber, Jihad v. McWorld (Ballantine Books, 1995); and Patrick Glynn, “The Age of Balkanization,” Commentary 96 (July 1993): 21 – 24.
21. Seven Tomorrows: Seven Scenarios for the Eighties and Nineties (MCB University Press, 1982), 150 et seq.
22. Joseph Jaworski, Synchronicity (Berrett-Koehler, 1996): 164; see also Tragic Choices.
23. Quoting a speech by R. Kako, who was chairman of Canon, Inc., at the time.
CHAPTER TWENTY-SIX: THE COMING AGE OF WAR AND PEACE
1. Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment Experts, 12.
2. President Clinton's January 18, 1998, State of the Union Address.
3. E.g. Don DeLillo, Underworld (Scribner, 1997), 76. “Now that power is in shatters or tatters and now that those Soviet borders don't even exist in the same way, I think we understand, we look back, we see ourselves clearly, and them as well. Power meant something thirty, forty years ago. It was stable, it was focused, it was a tangible thing. It was greatness, danger, terror, all those things. And it held us together, the Soviets and us. Maybe it held the world together. You could measure things. You could measure hope and you could measure destruction. Not that I want to bring it back. It's gone, good riddance. But the fact is… Many things that were anchored to the balance of power and the balance of terror seem to be undone, unstuck. Things have no limits now. Money has no limits. I don't understand money anymore. Money is undone. Violence is undone, violence is easier now, it's uprooted, out of control, it has no measure anymore, it has no level of values…”
4. Richard Danzig, The Big Three: Our Greatest Security Risks and How to Address Them (Institute for National Strategic Studies, 1999).
5. Michael Doyle, “Kant, Liberal Legacies and Foreign Affairs,” Philosophy and Public Affairs 12 (1983): 205, 323.
6. Thomas Schwartz and Kiron Skinner, “The Myth of Democratic Pacifism,” Wall Street Journal, January 7, 1999, A10.
7. At the same time that the pope was condemning war among Christians the Church was murdering Cathars, Albigensians, Waldensians, and others. See Wolfgang Wacker-nagel, “Two Thousand Years of Heresy: An Essay,” Diogenes 47 (Fall 1999): 134; or, for a more entertaining account, see David Roberts, “In France, an Ordeal by Fire and a Monster Weapon Called ‘Bad Neighbor’: Cathars, Nonviolent Christian Heretics, Victims of the Inquisition in the Thirteenth Century,” Smithsonian 22 (May 1991): 40.
8. R. James Woolsey, “On National Security Challenges in the 21st Century,” National Security Law Report 23 (January/February 2001): 5.
9. Rules, and also techniques.
10. See testimony of Michael Beschloss, Ed Turner, and Ted Koppel before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in Impact of Television on U.S. Foreign Policy (U.S. GPO, 1994).
11. “The defining moment was when Walter Cronkite announced on nationwide television after the Tet Offensive that he didn't believe we had any further reason to be in Vietnam.” Interview with Senator John McCain, March/April 2000, Association of Graduates, West Point.
12. David Anderson, “Is Libel Law Worth Reforming?” University of Pennsylvania Law Review 140, no. 2 (December 1991): 487.
13. In the twelve months prior to July 1994, the Defense Department detected 3,600 computer intrusions on military networks. Admiral McConnell, former head of the National Security Agency (NSA), has stated that computer intruders, in his view, have already included foreign intelligence agencies, criminals, terrorists, and members of the computer underground. A 1996 GAO report estimates, on rather slender evidence it must be said, that as many as 250,000 attempts to penetrate Defense Department computer systems occurred in 1995, and that twice that many would occur in 1997. When the Defense Department has attempted to penetrate its own systems, it succeeded in over 7,800 attempts—an 87 percent success rate, fewer than 5 percent of which attempts were even detected and fewer than 1 percent of which were reported up the chain of command.
14. An October 1996 Ernst & Young survey of corporate executives disclosed that 78 percent of respondents reported financial losses from the preceding two years that were attributable to information security problems and computer viruses. And there are escalating grounds for concern. In 1998 identified computer viruses increased from 8,000 to 12,000 within the past year, and they continued to grow at an estimated 300 per month. Intruders have compromised nearly all elements of the PSN: switching systems, operations, administration, maintenance and provisioning systems, and packet data networks. They have regularly attacked the networks linked to the PSN. And they have demonstrated great skill at manipulating data networks including the ATM (asynchronous transfer mode) networks and the synchronous optical networks (SONET).
CHAPTER TWENTY-SEVEN: PEACE IN THE SOCIETY OF MARKET-STATES
1. For an excellent discussion of the debate surrounding this doctrine, see Richard Haass, Intervention: The Use of American Military Force in the Post – Cold War World (Brookings Institution, 1994).
2. For a different proposal, see Richard Haass, The Reluctant Sheriff (Council on Foreign Relations).
3. Joseph Nye, “Redefining the National Interest,” Foreign Affairs 78 (July/August 1999): 28.
EPILOGUE
1. Fred Ikle, The National Interest, March 1, 1997.
2. Michael Walzer, “The Concept of Civil Society,” in Toward a Global Civil Society, ed. Michael Walzer (Berghahn Books, 1995), n. 342.
3. John Keegan, History of Warfare: see Chapter 6, n. 5.
4. Martin van Creveld, The Rise and Decline of the State (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
APPENDIX
1. Rey Koslowski and Friedrich V. Kratochwil, “Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire's Demise and the International System” (Symposium: The End of the Cold War and Theories of International Relations), International Organization 48 (Spring 1994): 15.
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