by Ian Morris
349 “Then … history would make a new turn”: Ayman al-Zawahiri, Knights Under the Prophet’s Banner (2001), cited in L. Wright 2006, p. 46.
349 “A stable Afghanistan”: Special Adviser Richard Holbrooke, cited in Sanger 2012, p. 132.
349 “send forth the news”: President George W. Bush, speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, November 6, 2003, http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/11/20031106–2.html.
349 “modernization is not”: Ibid.
350 “disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda”: President Barack Obama, speech at the White House, March 27, 2009, www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-on-a-New-Strategy-for-Afghanistan-and-Pakistan/.
351 “We lived in momentary expectation”: Major F. M. Crum (First Battalion, King’s Royal Rifles), Memoirs of an Unconventional Soldier (1903), cited in Citino 2002, p. 60.
351 “Sir, we patrol until we hit an IED”: Unnamed U.S. marine to Brigadier General Larry Nicholson, February 2009, quoted in Chandrasekaran 2012, p. 4.
351 “the dark side”: Vice President Dick Cheney, interview on Meet the Press, NBC, September 16, 2001, available at www.youtube.com/watch?v=X56PBAEkzYg.
352 “would be one of the worst”: Henry Kissinger to Michael Gerson, September 2005, cited in Woodward 2006, p. 409.
353 “When it comes to predicting”: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, speech at West Point, February 25, 2011, www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1539.
356 “This was the week that changed the world”: President Richard Nixon, toast at a dinner in Shanghai, February 27, 1972, cited in D. Reynolds 2000, p. 329.
357 “Chimerica”: Ferguson and Schularick 2007.
357 “the scale turns and the reaction follows”: Clausewitz, On War, bk. 7, chap. 5, trans. in Howard and Paret 1976, p. 528.
357 “the China Price”: BusinessWeek, December 6, 2004, p. 104.
358 “After … 1989 capitalism saved China”: Foreign Secretary David Miliband, interview with Guardian, cited in “May the Good China Preserve Us,” Economist, May 21, 2009, www.economist.com/node/13701737.
358 “Peaceful Rise”: Zheng 2005.
358 “Peaceful Development”: Dai 2010.
358 “benignant sympathy of her example”: John Quincy Adams, speech to the House of Representatives, July 4, 1821, http://fff.org/explore-freedom/article/john-quincy-adams-foreign-policy-1821/.
359 “über-realist power”: R. Kaplan 2012, p. 196.
359 “The inevitable analogy”: Luttwak 2012, p. 56.
359 “is looking for more strategic space”: Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University, May 28, 2013, cited in www.nytimesxom/2013/05/29/world/asia/china-to-seek-more-equal-footing-with-us-in-talks.html?ref=world&_r=1&.
360 “China Ready for Worst-Case Diaoyu Scenario”: Global Times, January 11, 2013, www.globaltimes.cn/content/755170.shtml.
360 “that Australia will at some stage”: Abigail 2012, p. 74.
360 “The Government’s judgement”: Commonwealth of Australia 2009, p. 43.
361 “Australia and the United States”: Hawke and Smith 2012, p. 53.
361 “Let there be no doubt”: Barack Obama, speech to the Australian Parliament, Canberra, November 17, 2011, www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament.
361 “Whereas the Chinese saw”: Rory Medcalf, director of the international security program of the Lowy Institute, Sydney, May 7, 2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/05/07/breaking-down-australias-defense-white-paper-2013/.
361 “U.S. power … is on the decline”: Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo, “An Unprecedented Great Changing Situation,” Study Times, January 21, 2013, trans. by James Bellacqua and Daniel Hartnett at www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/DQR-2013-U-004445-Final.pdf.
361 “If we get China wrong”: Unidentified American diplomat, quoted in Sanger 2012, p. xix.
362 Foreign Policy magazine asked a group: www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/22/the_future_of_war.
362 the Pew Research Center found: http://people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/692.pdf.
362 “AirSea Battle”: Krepinevich 2010; van Tol et al. 2010.
362 “strengthened its military deployments”: Hu Jintao, comments in 2001 in private discussions, trans. in Gilley and Nathan 2003, pp. 235–36.
364 “third industrial revolution”: Rifkin 2011.
366 “dramatic changes”: O’Hanlon 2013, pp. 30, v.
366 “The most significant threat”: Admiral Michael Mullen, interview with CNN, August 25, 2010, www.cnn.com/2010/US/08/27/debt.security.mullen/index.html.
367 “We are headed into uncharted waters”: National Intelligence Council 2012, pp. v, 3.
367 “game-changers” and “arc of instability”: National Intelligence Council 2008, p. 61.
368 “the five-year mean global temperature”: Hansen et al. 2013, p. 1.
369 “major powers might be drawn into conflict”: National Intelligence Council 2012, p. xii.
371 “patterns of life”: Unclassified briefing by Colonel James Hecker, 432nd Air Wing, Creech Air Force Base, Nevada, March 5, 2013.
372 “maintain complete silence”: Quoted in Byman 2013, p. 40.
372 “between 2015 and 2025”: Joint Forces Command 2003, p. 5.
372 “It is doubtful”: Boot 2006, p. 442.
373 “on the loop”: U.S. Air Force 2009, p. 41.
373 “We already don’t understand Microsoft Windows”: Mark Gubrud, research associate at Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, interview with Mother Jones, May 3, 2013, www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/05/campaign-stop-killer-robots-military-drones.
373 “lethal autonomous robotics”: United Nations 2013.
374 “human space”: Adams 2011, p. 5.
375 “the key weapon”: G. Friedman 2009, pp. 202, 211.
380 “a future period”: Kurzweil 2005, pp. 5, 24.
380 “the Rapture for Nerds”: MacLeod 1998, p. 115.
380 “digito-futuristic nonsense”: Evgeny Morozov, www.newrepublic.com/article/books-and-arts/magazine/105703/the-naked-and-the-ted-khanna#.
381 “It’s crap”: Unnamed neuroscientist, Swiss Academy of Sciences meeting, Bern, January 20, 2012, www.nature.com/news/computer-modelling-brain-in-a-box-1.10066.
381 “We are all agreed”: Niels Bohr to Wolfgang Pauli, Columbia University, 1958, cited in Economist, August 24, 2013, p. 71.
381 “We are opening a window”: Jack Gallant, professor of neuroscience at the University of California, Berkeley, September 2011, quoted at www.sciencedaily.com.releases/2011/09/110922121407.htm.
381 “There’s a long way to go”: Jan Schnupp, professor of neuroscience at Oxford University, February 1, 2012, quoted at www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095214/As-scientists-discover-translate-brainwaves-words-Could-machine-read-innermost-thoughts.html.
382 “a bunch of hot air”: Miguel Nicolelis, professor of neuroscience at Duke University, February 18, 2013, quoted at www.technologyreview.com/view/511421/the-brain-is-not-computable/.
382 “when a scientist says”: Richard Smalley, October 2000, quoted in washingtonmonthly.com/features/2000/0010.thompson.html.
383 “Once upon a time”: Livy, History of Rome 2.32 (translation mine).
385 “Everything in war is very simple”: Clausewitz, On War, bk. 1, chap. 7, trans. in Howard and Paret 1976, p. 119.
385 “the last best hope of earth”: President Abraham Lincoln, second annual message to Congress, December 1, 1862, www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=29503.
385 “lean forward”: Brooks et al. 2013, p. 142.
385 “pull back”: Posen 2013, pp. 117–18.
385 “a grand strategy”: Brooks et al. 2013, p. 42.
385 “it is time to abandon”: Posen 2013, pp. 117–18.
386 Pax Technologica: Khanna and Khanna 2012.
387 “the rich are different from you and m
e”: F. Scott Fitzgerald and Ernest Hemingway (possibly 1936), as discussed at www.nytimes.com/1988/11/13/books/l-the-rich-are-different-907188.html.
387 “transhuman”: Naam 2013a, p. 23.
388 “deadly Western armies”: V. D. Hanson 2001, p. 24.
392 two-thirds of Americans are telling pollsters: www.cnn.com/2013/09/09/politics/syria=poll=main/index.html.
392 “Speak softly and carry a big stick”: Theodore Roosevelt (then governor of New York) to Henry L. Sprague, January 26, 1900, www.loc.gov/exhibits/treasures/images/at0052as.jpg.
393 Si vis pacem: Unattributed Roman proverb. The closest version preserved in Roman literature is “Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum,” in Vegetius, On Military Matters (ca. A.D. 400).
FURTHER READING
There are more books and essays on the history of war than anyone could read in a dozen lifetimes, and so in this section I simply list the works that have had the most influence on my own thinking. One of the joys of being an academic is that I get paid to read books about things I am interested in, and so even though I have pruned the list several times, it still runs to hundreds of titles.
Within this mass of scholarship, though, I want to single out just a dozen works without which I probably never would have written this book: Azar Gat’s War in Human Civilization (2006), the unchallenged starting point for all serious studies of the long-term history of war; Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs, and Steel (1997) and Robert Wright’s Nonzero (2000), wonderful examples of how to combine evolution and history; Richard Wrangham and Dale Peterson’s Demonic Males (1996), still the best book on primate and human violence; Lawrence Keeley’s War Before Civilization (1996), which opened a new chapter in the study of prehistoric war; Steven Pinker’s Better Angels of Our Nature (2011), a magnificent account of modern violence; Edward Luttwak’s Strategy (2001) and Rupert Smith’s Utility of Force (2005), which bring Clausewitz’s theorizing together with the modern history of war; Kenneth Chase’s Firearms (2003), a neglected classic of comparative military history; Paul Kennedy’s Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (1987) and Niall Ferguson’s Empire (2003), which offer grand visions of war in the last few hundred years; and, last but certainly not least, John Keegan’s Face of Battle (1976), to my mind the finest history of the battlefield experience yet written.
Because the literature is so large, almost every topic I touch on is controversial, making it virtually impossible to say anything of substance without going against the judgment of at least some specialists. Where debates are particularly contentious, or where I go against the majority opinion among experts, I indicate this, but sadly space does not allow for exhaustive bibliographies on every point.
My list combines studies aimed at general readers, academic overviews, and pieces of detailed research on specific points. Whenever possible I cite recent works in English that provide large bibliographies of their own. Except when referring to short essays in newspapers, I cite works by the author’s last name and date of publications; full details can be found in the bibliography that follows.
All URLs were checked on September 22, 2013.
INTRODUCTION
Events of September 26, 1983: I draw on the account in D. Hoffman 2009, pp. 6–11. We still do not know exactly where Soviet missiles were pointed in 1983, in part because many Russian missiles are still pointing at the same targets. I would like to thank David Holloway for discussing this episode with me.
Likely casualties from nuclear war in the 1980s: Daugherty et al. 1986; B. Levi et al. 1987/88. U.S. war game: Bracken 2012, pp. 82–88.
Thompson and Smith 1980 convey the mood of Europe’s antinuclear movements, and Sabin 1986 is excellent on the British context that I experienced as a student. Nuclear stockpiles in 1986: Norris and Kristensen 2006, p. 66.
Lesser-evil arguments: Pinker 2011, pp. 507–8, 557.
Civilizing Process: Elias 1982 (1939). Homicide statistics: Eisner 2003, elaborated in Spierenburg 2008. Roth 2009 extends the analysis to the United States.
War Before Civilization: Keeley 1996, developed further in LeBlanc and Register 2003 and Gat 2006, pp. 3–145. Brian Ferguson 2013 challenges these estimates of prehistoric mortality.
Statistics of Deadly Quarrels: Richardson 1960. Several scholars have offered complicated (but not, to my mind, very convincing) refutations of Richardson’s conclusion that humans have become less warlike since 1820; Wilkinson 1980 discusses their arguments.
Databases of death: Since there are now so many (and there are doubtless more out there that I am unaware of), I divide these into four broad categories: war, genocide, terrorism, and homicide. This is somewhat arbitrary, though, because the categories merge into each other and different researchers define them differently (Rudy Rummel, for instance, classifies Nazi massacres of civilians in eastern Europe as genocide, while most databases treat them as war deaths). Because of definitional differences and the inherent ambiguities and gaps in the evidence, no two databases come up with exactly the same numbers.
Deaths from war: Brecke 1999, 2002; Cederman 2003; Clodfelter 1993; Eck and Hultman 2007; Eckhardt 1992; Ganzel and Schwinghammer 2000; Gleditsch et al. 2002; Hewitt et al. 2008; Human Security Centre 2005, 2006; Human Security Report Project 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, www.hsrgroup.org/; Lacina 2009; Lacina et al. 2006; Levy 1983; Peace Research Institute of Oslo, www.prio.no/CSCW/Datasets/Armed-Conflict/Battle-Deaths; Sarkees 2000; Singer and Small 1972; Sorokin 1957; Steckel and Wallis 2009; Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 2012; Uppsala Conflict Data Project, www.prio.no/CSCW/Datasets/Armed-Conflict/UCDP-PRIO, with discussion in Themner and Wallensteen 2012; M. White 2011, http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/; Q. Wright 1942.
Deaths from genocide: Harff 2003, 2005; One-Sided Violence Dataset, www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/; Rummel 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004.
Deaths from terrorism: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, www.start.umd.edu/gtd/.
Deaths from homicide: Eisner 2003; Krug et al. 2002; Spierenburg 2008; Roth 2009.
Overall levels of violence: Global Peace Index, www.visionofhumanity.org/. Extreme cases: Gerlach 2010.
Analyses of databases and categories of analysis: Chirot and McCauley 2006; Dulic 2004; Lacina and Gleditsch 2005; Levy and Thompson 2011; Long and Brecke 2003; Obermeyer et al. 2008; Adam Roberts 2010; Roberts and Turcotte 1998; Spagat et al. 2009.
Disagreements over death toll in Afghanistan since 2001: http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/21/calculating-the-human-cost-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/.
War in Human Civilization: Gat 2006. Sex at Dawn: Ryan and Jethá 2010 (to be read with the equally impassioned response Sex at Dusk [Saxon 2012]). The End of War: Horgan 2012. War, Peace, and Human Nature: Fry 2013. Winning the War on War: Goldstein 2011. Better Angels: Pinker 2011. World Until Yesterday: Diamond 2012.
Leviathan and its critics: Parkin 2007. French alternatives: David Bell 2007, pp. 52–83.
War and the state: Tilly 1975, 1985.
Fifty thousand books on the American Civil War: Keeley 1996, p. 4.
Hitler and the Nazi Leviathan: Evans 2005; Mazower 2008.
Menu of types of imperialism: N. Ferguson 2004, pp. 7–13.
1. THE WASTELAND?
Battle at the Graupian Mountain: This calls for a long note. To begin with, we do not know for sure where the battle at the Graupian Mountain was fought. Like most historians since St. Joseph (1978), though, I suspect it was on the slopes of Bennachie in Aberdeenshire.
Nor can we be certain exactly what happened in it. Each detail in my account is based on real events and passages in ancient texts, but we do not know whether all, some, or none of them actually happened on that day—or, for that matter, on any day (Lendon 1999 discusses the rhetorical complexities of Roman battle accounts). Overall I rely on the one major source for the battle, Tacitus’s Agricola 29–38 (published around A.D. 98), and augment it with details of Caledonian tactics and weapons from other Roman sources (particul
arly Tacitus, Agricola 11 and Germania 4; Strabo, Geography 4.5.2, 7.1.2; Diodorus of Sicily 5.30.5; and Julius Caesar, The Gallic War 5.14). I also draw on the enormous modern literature on Roman tactics (Goldsworthy 1996, 2003, and 2006 are excellent accounts), modern models of how ancient battles could plausibly have worked (Sabin 2000, 2007), and the battle analyses by W. S. Hanson 1987, pp. 129–39, and Campbell 2010.
Since few modern authors have been in a cavalry charge, and ancient accounts are very generic, I draw on Winston Churchill’s (1930, chap. 15) eyewitness description of the last major cavalry charge by a British regiment, at Omdurman in 1898, in my description of the auxiliaries’ attack.
I have Calgacus slip on a mail shirt before joining battle because, while Roman writers repeatedly say that Britons fought unarmored, chain mail has been found in several pre-Roman graves (Mattingly 2006, p. 48). By A.D. 83, Caledonian chiefs would probably have worn mail to fight.
Tacitus’s attitude toward Roman imperialism was, to put it mildly, complicated (Sailor 2011, Woolf 2011). He married Agricola’s daughter, consistently praised Agricola for spreading Roman civilization, and criticized the emperor Domitian for abandoning Agricola’s conquests in Britain; at the same time he used the idealized simplicity of the peoples outside the empire to highlight Rome’s decadence, described the incorporation of the Britons into the empire as slavery, and wrote a stirring speech for Calgacus.
On the Roman Empire generally, volumes 8–11 of the second edition of the Cambridge Ancient History (published 1989–2000) provide enormous detail, while Woolf 2012 gives a fine overview. Gat 2006, pp. 3–322, is excellent on the evolution of ancient war and government.
Tel Aviv skulls: Cohen et al. 2012. Peruvian skeletons: Arkush and Tung 2013. The Routledge Handbook of the Bioarchaeology of Human Conflict (Knüsel and Smith 2013) appeared while this book was in production but has some excellent essays.
Everyday barbarian violence: Caesar, Gallic Wars 6.16–24; Tacitus, Germania 13–15; Strabo, Geography 4.4. Shields and spears for Germans like togas for Romans: Tacitus, Germania 13. Wicker cages: Caesar, Gallic Wars 6.16.