by Ian Morris
Belarus incident: www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/world/europe/in-belarus-a-teddy-bear-airdrop-vexes-lukashenko.html?_r=1&ref=europe.
Opinion poll in 2003: Sheehan 2008, p. xvi. Opinion poll in 2006: www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/jun/15/usa.iran.
European strategic realities: R. Kaplan 2012. U.S. pressure on Britain to remain in Europe: www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/barack-obama-piles-pressure-on-david-cameron-over-eu-exit-8458116.html.
The Great Game: Hopkirk 1990 is a wonderful account.
Oil and southwest Asia: Yergin 1991.
Spending on oil in mid-1970s: Based on Yergin 1991, pp. 792–93.
United States and Iran: Milani 2011. Ayatollah Khomeini as Man of the Year: Time, January 7, 1980 (www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2019712_2019694_2019594,00.html). Time received more than fourteen thousand letters of complaint.
Bin Laden and al-Qaeda: L. Wright 2006 is excellent.
Boer War: Pakenham 1979 remains the best treatment. Iraq War: The literature is vast, but Ricks 2006 and 2009 are good introductions.
American torture: Greenberg 2005. Drone killings: Cavallaro et al. 2012; http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/04/16843014-justice-department-memo-reveals-legal-case-for-drone-strikes-on-americans?lite.
U.S. casualties in Iraq: www.defense.gov/news/casualty/pdf. Iraqi civilian casualties: www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/ten-years/. Costs of Boer War: Pakenham 1979, compared with British GDP from Maddison 2010.
Declining U.S. oil imports: U.S. Energy Information Administration, www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm. Imports peaked at 12.5 million barrels per day in 2005; the 1987 level was 6 million barrels.
Slowing down Iran’s nuclear program: Sanger 2012, pp. 141–240, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/11/19/stuxnets_secret_twin_iran_nukes_cyber_attack. Iranian nuclear options: Bracken 2012, pp. 155–60.
End of big wars: Hammes 2006. Gray 2005 summarizes and criticizes the predictions.
Middle Eastern villages at Fort Irwin: www.good.is/posts/picture-show-iraq-in-the-mojave/.
American anxieties about Japanese economic growth: Vogel 1980.
Five-trillion-dollar trade through South China Sea: Luttwak 2012, p. 206.
Maoist economic disasters: Diktötter 2010; MacFarquhar and Schoenhals 2006.
Chinese economic growth and fragility: Fenby 2012; Beardson 2013; Shambaugh 2013. The detail about deforestation comes from Economy 2004, p. 64, and the estimates of growth by 2030 from Economy 2007.
China as a military rival to the United States: Out of a huge recent literature, I have found R. Kaplan 2012 and Luttwak 2012 particularly useful.
Peaceful Rise: Zheng 2005. Peaceful Development: Dai 2010.
Chinese strategic culture: Yan 2011; Ye 2010. Confucian politics: Jiang 2013.
Military spending, 1989–2011: Data from the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, http://milexdata.sipri.org. Chinese armed forces: Department of Defense 2012, 2013.
China-Germany analogy: Luttwak 2012, pp. 56–67.
RAND war games: Shlapak et al. 2009.
The proceedings of the ASPI conference (Global Forces 2011) are available at www.aspi.org.au/publications/publications_all.aspx. Australian 2009 Defence White Paper: www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/. Reactions: Lyon and Davies 2009.
U.S.-Asia pivot: Clinton 2011.
Estimates of risk of Sino-American war: www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/22/the_future_of_war. Pew poll: http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/692.pdf. Feldman 2013 is a good analysis of U.S.-China relations.
AirSea Battle: Krepinevich 2010; van Tol et al. 2010, with debates at http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2013/08/19/airsea-battle-vs-offshore-control-can-the-us-blockade-china. U.S. cyberwar plans: www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2013/jun/07/obama-cyber-directive-full-text.
China’s strategic options: Tellis and Tanner 2012; Bracken 2012, pp. 195–211.
Russia since 1989: M. Goldman 2008. Military modernization: www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/30/us-russia-putin-navy-idUSBRE86T1D320120730; www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/05/building_a_better_bear. Declining revenues: www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/overview.
Shale revolution: M. Levi 2013. Third industrial revolution: Rifkin 2011.
Estimates of economic growth, 2010–60: OECD, www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/lookingto2060.htm; Congressional Budget Office, www.cbo.gov/publications/43907. Lower estimates: www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2012/11/economic-outlook; Pricewater-houseCoopers, www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf; Economist, www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/06/daily-chart-0.
Chinese and American military budgets: http://milexdata.sipri.org.
Global trends to 2030: National Intelligence Council 2012. Arc of instability: National Intelligence Council 2008.
Carbon dioxide levels: http://co2now.org. Possible consequences: L. Smith 2010; www.sciencemag.org/site/special/climate2013/.
Euphrates: “Less Fertile Crescent,” Economist, March 9, 2013, p. 42, www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21573158-waters-babylon-are-running-dry-less-fertile-crescent. Egypt and Ethiopia: www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/10/us-ethiopia-egypt-nile-war-idUSBRE95911020130610.
Mean temperatures, 2002–12: Hansen et al. 2013; “A Sensitive Matter,” Economist, March 30, 2013, pp. 77–79, www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions.
CIA climate change office closes: http://eenews.net/public/Greenwire/2012/11/19/1.
Number of nuclear warheads: Kristensen and Norris 2012, 2013. U.S. plutonium facility put on hold: www.lasg.org/press/2013/NWMM_22Feb2013.html. Ground-Based Mid-course Defense: www.mda.mil/system/gmd.html. Iron Dome: http://nation.time.com/2012/11/19/iron-dome-a-missile-shield-that-works/#ixzz2Ci0JS7Us.
I learned a great deal about the drone program from my visit to Creech Air Force Base, Nevada, on March 5, 2013. The PBS Nova television show “The Rise of the Drones” (www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/military/rise-of-the-drones.html) gives a good account of its history, and a pair of papers (Byman 2013, Cronin 2013) in Foreign Affairs 92.4 (July/August 2013) present the main issues in the public debate.
MQ-9 unit cost: www.dod.mil/pubs/foi/logistics_material_readiness/acq_bud_fin/SARs/DEC%202011%20SAR/MQ-9%20UAS%20REAPER%20-%20SAR%20-%2031%20DEC%202011.pdf. F-35 unit cost: www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/feature/141238/**f_35-lot-5-unit-costs-exceed-$223m.html.
Civilian casualties of drones: www.propublica.org/article/everything-we-know-so-far-about-drone-strikes, with links to competing estimates. Casualties in Pakistan: http://natsec.newamerica.net/drones/pakistan/analysis; www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2013/07/22/get-the-data-the-pakistan-governments-secret-document/.
Singer 2009 is an excellent introduction to robotic warfare. Official reports: Joint Forces Command 2003, U.S. Air Force 2009. Call for a moratorium: United Nations 2013; www.hrw.org/news/2013/05/28/us-take-lead-against-lethal-robotic-weapons. Campaign to Stop Killer Robots: www.stopkillerrobots.org. Most recent (November 2012) statement of U.S. policy on lethal drones: www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/pdf/300009p.pdf.
War in 2050: G. Friedman 2009.
Second Nuclear Age: Bracken 2012.
Social development index: I. Morris 2010, 2013.
Combination of technology and security perspectives: National Intelligence Council 2008, 2012; Schmidt and Cohen 2013.
Brains and the Singularity: Kurzweil 2005, 2013. Survey of predictions: http://fora.tv/2012/10/14/Stuart_Armstrong_How_Were_Predicting_AI. Human Brain Project: www.humanbrainproject.eu; www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/05/neurologist-markam-human-brain/all/.
Criticisms of Singularity theories: See particularly Morozov 2013. Kurzweil 2013, pp. 266–82, addresses some of the objections.
Berkeley movie experiment: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110922121407.htm, with footage at www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsjDnYxJ0bo. Berkeley speech experiment: www.pl
osbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001251. Rat telepathy: www.nature.com/srep/2013/130228/srep01319/full/srep01319.html, with discussion at http://singularityhub.com/2013/03/11/brains-of-two-rats-linked-half-way-across-the-world/.
Human superorganism: Robert Wright 2000.
Competitions within our bodies: Ridley 1996, pp. 11–34, has a clear account.
Policy debate: Brooks et al. 2013; Posen 2013.
Pax Technologica: Khanna and Khanna 2012.
Computerization and wealth inequality: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/rise-of-the-robots/?_r=0; Cowen 2013.
Nexus and Crux: Naam 2013a, 2013 b.
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