“And consequently – and this is the most dangerous aspect – crime in the Solar System has increased dramatically. Military intelligence is recording a steep rise in piratical attacks on space transport which the regular forces can no longer cope with while acting secretly. There have been cases of attacks on people. Analysts in General MacQueen’s department predict that within a few weeks it will become necessary to proclaim a state of emergency in order to be able to suppress outbreaks of space crime.
“To sum up, we need to change our strategy. The question of the security of our civilisation is now being intensively discussed amongst the General Staff, because, from the military’s point of view, the situation is coming to the boil. If we cannot find a solution within the terms of our mandate, control of the project will pass to the Ministry of Defence.”
“What would the military do differently? How would they talk to the incomer?” asked someone from the historians’ group.
Shelby looked at MacQueen, who stood up.
“We plan to blockade Jupiter,” he said calmly.
The hall resounded with protests.
“We are two races who have never met before, different in every way you could possibly imagine. How can we find a common language in just a few weeks?? It’s ridiculous. Not even all the countries here on Earth can find a common language!” exclaimed the same historian vehemently. “Surely you don’t think we’ll get the best results by sabre-rattling?!”
“What will the incomers think of us?” was one of many things being shouted from the hall.
The noise in the hall grew. Shelby took off his spectacles and wiped them. Then he wiped the perspiration from his brow. It promised to be an interesting day. On one hand, he understood the scientists, but MacQueen’s position was well-founded too.
“Ladies and gentlemen, pray silence!” called Shelby, trying to moderate passions.
The hall did not intend to be silent. Shelby carried on talking as if there was no noise. Sometimes adult scientists behave like children having their favourite toy snatched from them.
“I understand your objections, and I largely agree with them, but like it or not, our initial aims in the process of the dialogue with the incomer have not been achieved.”
The hall gradually quietened down.
“Remember that our primary aim is not to satisfy our academic interest, which is admittedly tremendous. No, our aim is to try to avoid negative consequences for mankind.
“Let us not forget that the object we are talking to is potentially dangerous. We have no means, technical or political, of influencing the actions of the incomers. Please bear in mind that we are meeting face to face not with good friends, but with a potentially dangerous alien race capable of destroying us. Do not lose sight of our main aim: security.”
To Shelby’s great relief, the atmosphere in the hall returned to more constructive lines.
“What exactly do the military intend to do?” someone asked.
MacQueen took the floor again.
“A strike group is now on its way to Jupiter with the most powerful weapons at our disposal. In a few days, the group will reach the planet and deploy its forces round it. After that, we will lay our cards on the table for the intruder. We shall set out for it our point of view on the interpretation of its role in the contact process. Then it will be offered two possibilities – politely, but as an ultimatum.
“The first is to begin a really constructive dialogue, beginning with a discussion of political questions, particularly concerning the aims of the intruder’s visit. Subjects of abstract or purely academic interest will be postponed as less important. If the intruder accepts these conditions, once understandings have been reached on the vital questions of our peaceful coexistence, the project will return to being your responsibility.
“The second will apply if the object does not agree to cooperate. Evasive answers will be taken by us as disagreement with our terms. In that case, we shall demand that it leave our star system, which we consider to be our sphere of influence. If the intruder refuses, we shall use armed force.”
There was absolute silence in the hall.
“General, do you mean that we are on the threshold of war?” asked one of the historians.
“So far we have not even set out our terms, so I wouldn’t put it that strongly,” replied MacQueen imperturbably.
“But if it refuses to leave our system, we shall be starting a war.”
“It will be explained to the object with maximum clarity that we consider the space within our heliosphere as our own home. Any presence of alien civilisations in this sphere represents a serious threat to our security. On the other hand, we are ready to talk, but on our terms. These terms, by the way, are not that hard to meet.
“If the object is not prepared to cooperate constructively, we shall insist that it leave us and in future communicate with us from outside our sphere of influence.”
“But your plan envisages a first strike.”
“Yes, that remains a possibility.”
“So in effect we WOULD be starting a war!”
MacQueen grinned.
“No, if the object ignores our ultimatum and refuses to leave the Solar System, it will mean that we are already in a state of war. The refusal is its official declaration. But we shall not be the initiator of the conflict, the intruder will be.”
“But how would that help us?”
“How would it help us to ignore hostile actions?”
“Perhaps we’ll find a compromise.”
“A compromise is only possible when both parties want to reach one. If one party is not interested, the other party has to make the first move. That gives us an advantage in the military sense.”
The hall was observing the discussion between MacQueen and the historian with bated breath. The General was a soldier, with a good understanding of the strategy and tactics of war, while the historian was well versed in the long-term consequences of armed conflicts. The fact that their opinions were diametrically opposite made even the most enthusiastic optimists nervous.
“What is the point of this advantage if our strike is followed by retribution against which we are powerless?” The historian refused to believe in the positive effect of the use of force.
“That’s your opinion, that we are powerless.”
“No, wait, General. I am asking quite specifically. What actual advantage does a first strike have?”
“The alien ship’s reaction to our attack will give us technical information about its defence systems. Perhaps the object will decide to defend itself actively and strike back at us. This will give us some idea of its offensive armament. This is very important information, which will influence our choice of defensive strategy.”
Those in the hall had finally recovered from the shock news of MacQueen’s belligerent plans and were gradually beginning to continue taking part in the discussion.
“How probable, from your point of view, is a favourable outcome if it comes to armed conflict?” asked one of the mathematicians.
“It depends what you mean by that.”
“I mean, how probable is it that we shall avoid total annihilation?”
“We have some chance.”
“That doesn’t sound very encouraging.”
The General did not reply. You could read in his face that he was tired and did not want to continue this discussion. He was not accustomed to having to justify his military strategy to civilians. Particularly civilians who hadn’t a clue what it was all about. Most of the assembled academics, when they began philosophising on military subjects, were as naïve as pre-school children.
It was time for Shelby to try to cool down the discussion.
“Colleagues, you and I are scientists, and as such are obliged to have the courage to look the truth in the eye. In any situation. At this moment, the truth is that our system of communicating with the incomer has failed.
“We could of course spend a long time discussing why
it has failed. One opinion is that we have incorrectly set out our priorities in posing our questions. Perhaps so. We are making contact relying on the theory that our guests have peaceful intentions. In my opinion, the time has come to doubt this original proposition. We must put the question point-blank: is the incomer interested in developing diplomatic relations with us or not?
“We have already tried several times to formulate a question in this very way, but each time, the object has ignored it. Therefore, within the limits of our initial paradigm, there is no solution to our problem. Or if there is, we can’t find it. However that may be, it follows that we must go outside the bounds of this paradigm. This is where General MacQueen can help us. As absurd as it may sound, if we want peace in this situation, we have to prepare for war.”
“Thank you,” said MacQueen.
He remembered his last face-to-face conversation with Shelby. He had to admit that Shelby was right in saying that the army and the scientists in this hall were all playing for the same team. He probably ought to go a bit easier on them. After all, they were not his subordinates, accustomed to carrying out orders without discussion. Scientists live and think in dialogues. That should be respected. He continued:
“Ladies and gentlemen, we shall achieve the best result if we work together, not against each other. The army is not acting out of pique at your work. We have a certain set of instructions designed to cover various circumstances. The fact that on this occasion we are dealing with an alien intruder does not override these instructions. Therefore I would be extremely grateful for your understanding concerning the actions of the armed forces.
“The blockade of the alien ship implies the threat of the use of force. I think everyone in this hall understands this. In order to be sure that the intruder understands it too, we shall inform it thoroughly before we go over to the active part of the operation.
“The aim of the blockade is to shock the intruder into making the first move, to lure him out from cover, as you might say. Whatever its intentions are, it will reveal them to us when it reacts to the blockade. Even if it ignores it.
“This operation’s chances of success would be greater if we had information on the nature of the intruder’s interest in the Solar System. Is it an economic interest? If it is, in what particular resources? Furthermore, it would give us tactical advantages if we knew if it had living beings on board.”
“How would it influence your strategy if you had the answers to these questions?” It was Shelby himself who asked this.
“The presence of living beings on board the alien ship limits the spectrum of their actions. They would be more cautious. It would not be so easy for them to move pieces around as in chess. Our threats of physical destruction would have much more weight in their eyes. No-one wants to die,” answered MacQueen.
“Professor Sullivan, we have discussed this subject. Please give your assessment,” said Shelby, addressing the head of the cyberneticists’ group. “Is it possible, in your opinion, to find the answers to the General’s questions?”
“It’s quite a difficult job, given that we know so little about the alien ship’s AI. If we could construct some test that would be beyond the capabilities of the AI, it would have to apply for help from its pilots. Or passengers, that’s not important. This would cause a delay in their response, which would indicate that there are living beings on board the object.”
“Do you think we are capable of devising such a test?”
“It’s hard to say. But we could try. The difficulty is not in creating the test as such, but our limited knowledge about the design of the object’s AI. We do not know its weak points, so we can’t start by working on them.
“But we could begin as follows. My thinking is based on the axiom we discussed earlier, that an alien biological intelligence is something like ours as it will be in the future. If this is so, it differs from the AI in its capacity for abstract thought, intuition, and ability to take non-standard decisions.
“Judging from our experience in the field of AI studies, the situation is worst as regards intuition. Our AI, even in its most advanced form, still has no intuition of any significance. Formally, intuition is the capacity to draw correct conclusions on the basis of incomplete or even incorrect information. Try teaching that to a computer! A computer can only draw a conclusion on the basis of complete information, by constructing logic chains. If a logic chain cannot be constructed because of the absence of some fragment, an AI can sometimes find the lacking link from collateral information. But if the AI cannot construct a continuous logic chain, it cannot draw a conclusion. This applies where the information is incomplete.
“It is even worse with untrue information, since the task is complicated by the fact that the first thing to be done is to assess the degree of reliability. And for this, again you require intuition.
“The conclusion is this. If the alien AI also experiences such complications, then when it has received a problem from us, a term in which is incomplete or even logically contradictory, it will have to turn to the living beings for assistance. This should be apparent to us, because the object will require considerably more time to find the answer.”
“And what if the object simply needs more time to find the answer while using nothing but AI?”
“Intuition problems do not require much computing time. We have measured the activity of the human brain in finding the solutions of such problems. If anything, intuition requires even less thinking time.”
“Professor Sullivan, could you test the object’s intuition on a tight schedule?”
“I think I could. I am confident that we are capable of constructing a series of such problems. But that alone would require more time than we spent on creating the neural network, which searches for analogies. This time we have to do it virtually manually, because we cannot entrust the task to computers. Unfortunately, they do not know what intuition is and, consequently, they cannot think in these categories. It’s a pity, but intuitive algorithms do not lend themselves to formalisation.”
“How much time do you need for this?”
“I can’t make predictions. Do not forget that in developing these questions, I shall have to rely more on the help of my colleagues from other disciplines. Cybernetics is a precise science; we have little room for intuitive manoeuvre.”
“All right, but remember that we only have a limited time.”
“Yes, I’ll try not to lose sight of that. By the way, General, how much time do we have before you deploy your weapons round Jupiter?”
“You have a few days, Professor Sullivan, no more.”
“Well then, let’s get to work!”
Plan B
They had only managed to load two thirds of the concentrated ore ready for transportation, but Kimble decided to take off immediately. An unidentified ship, most probably intending to hijack them, was approaching them at high speed. In such cases there was no time to think about the optimum load, you had to get moving right away and hope you would stay alive.
Oh yes, they were certainly worth robbing. THP 11600 was carrying concentrated ore, the value of which equalled half the annual budget of a small country. The ship itself had enough fuel on board to keep the pirates’ tanks filled for the next ten years. And that was without the ship itself. The construction of such a giant, which took almost a decade, took place directly in Earth orbit, since it was not possible for such a monster to take off from the Earth’s surface. Large cargo spacecraft were a real product of the space age: born in space and never destined to land on the surface of a planet. Unless they did so as a result of some grotesque catastrophe. If this triumph of engineering thought could be hijacked, you could get a great deal for it.
“Ready to switch on main engines. Takeoff on your orders, sir,” reported the pilot.
He had been flying with Kimble for a long time, and knew him quite well. They could manage without formalities of course, they understood each other from a mere hint, but at critica
l moments, Kimble changed from being one of the boys into a strict commander. In their first years of flying together, this had seemed farcical, but after going through many escapades, the crew knew that this was ingrained into Kimble from his time in the SSS. This authoritarian attitude had saved their lives more than once. He always did things by the book. And such books, as we know, are written in blood.
“Take off!” replied the Captain.
The pilot gestured and gave it a little thrust. He had to check if the cargo was fixed correctly and that it would hold. In a few minutes it was clear that the engineer had done an excellent job. Cargo shift was within permissible limits, he could give it full throttle. The pilot gave instructions to take the thrust to the very limit, a little way into the red zone. The engines were now producing 110 per cent of rated power. THP 11600 rapidly gained speed, leaving the asteroid behind.
“Has anyone responded to our emergency signal?” asked Kimble.
“The military base on Mars confirmed receipt of our request. They cannot send assistance for the moment, but suggest we change course and head for station MRS 5M. It can cover us until a military patrol ship is available to escort us to the safe zone.”
“Affirmative,” Kimble replied curtly. There would be no support. Well, it wasn’t the first time he’d heard that. In deep space, you could only rely on yourself.
“Set up a new route to MRS 5M,” said the Captain to the onboard computer. “Result on the main screen.”
The main screen now showed a star chart of the Solar System, on which their own flight trajectory and that of the pirates could be seen. One three seven was still moving along its initial trajectory, obviously it hadn’t tumbled to the fact that THP 11600 had already left the asteroid and was making for the centre at full steam ahead. This gave them some advantage.
“Look, they haven’t yet realised that we’ve weighed anchor. That’s good,” said Kimble, and commanded the computer:
The Contact Episode Three Page 4