202 a poll he had commissioned: McLaughlin & Associates, “National Survey Presented to Congressman Eric Cantor, Republican House Whip Team,” January 21, 2009, copy provided to the author. The results were reported by ABC News: Jonathan Karl and Rick Klein, “GOP Strategy: Oppose Pelosi, Not Obama,” ABC News, January 29, 2009, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2009/01/gop-strategy-op/.
203 “It’s my way or the highway”: Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor, and Kevin McCarthy, Young Guns: A New Generation of Conservative Leaders (New York: Threshold, 2010), p. 52.
204 One Republican congressman who said Limbaugh should “back off”: That was Phil Gingrey of Georgia.
205 The Energy and Commerce Committee did approve six minor GOP amendments: Amendment list available here: http://democrats.energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/20090122/markupaction.pdf. The three Republican amendments that weren’t included in the final House bill were offered by Cliff Stearns (to exclude millionaires from receiving COBRA health care subsidies), Tim Murphy (to require that health IT grant recipients purchase American-made equipment), and Roy Blunt (to allow pharmacists the same level of access as doctors to electronic health records).
206 “We’re looking forward to the the President’s visit”: John Boehner’s talking points for the House GOP Conference meeting on January 27 were provided to the author.
207 the $815 billion stimulus bill: CBO cost estimate of the House bill, January 26, 2009, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9968/hrl.pdf.
208 Shortly before 11 A.M., the AP reported: David Espo, “House Republicans Urged to Oppose Stimulus Bill,” Associated Press, January 27, 2009.
209 the must-read book in Republican circles: Amity Shlaes, The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression (New York: Harper, 2007). Jonathan Chait eviscerated Shlaes in a review, “Wasting Away in Hooverville,” The New Republic, January 28, 2009, http://www.tnr.com/article/books/wasting-away-hooverville.
210 mostly they supplied information, sending out memos: Cantor’s whip team listed the money for artists and STDs in memos tailored to each Republican House member under the headline, “What Competing Stimulus Plans Mean for Your District,” designed to produce talking points that Republicans could use to attack the Democratic bill at home.
211 The official $478 billion Republican alternative: “US House Republican Alternative Stimulus Proposal,” Reuters, January 28, 2008, http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/01/28/usa-stimulus-republicans-idUSN285350202009012_8.
212 the GOP also crafted a second $715 billion substitute: A summary of the substitute is here: http://rsc.jordan.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=109730.
213 claiming it would create twice as many jobs at half the cost: This claim was utterly bogus. Republicans also had the audacity to say they derived it using Romer’s model, which was absurd; Romer’s model gave spending a higher multiplier than tax cuts. Factcheck.org politely noted that the Republican claims were “not backed up by independent economists”: www.factcheck.org/2009/02/stimulus-bill-bravado/.
214 the House rejected the $478 billion alternative: The roll call is here: http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2009/roll044.xml. The vote on the $715 billion alternative is here: http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2009/roll045.xml. The vote on the Democratic bill is here: http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2009/roll046.xml.
215 “Washington insiders and media pundits”: Ryan, Cantor, and McCarthy, Young Guns, p. 53.
216 “The Republican Problem”: Memo from Pelosi communications director Brendan Daly, January 28, 2009.
217 Gingrich addressed a House Republican retreat: Patrick O’Connor, “Members Cheer at GOP Retreat,” January 30, 2009, Politico, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/18204.html.
218 “I know all of you are pumped”: Patrick O’Connor, “At Retreat, Upbeat GOP Looks to 2010,” Politico, January 31, 2009, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/18238.html.
219 In a later roundtable discussion: Ryan, Cantor, and McCarthy, Young Guns, p. 8.
220 “Republicans—short on new ideas”: E. J. Dionne, “Obama Losing Stimulus Fight to Defeated GOP,” Washington Post, February 5, 2009, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/02/obama_losing_stimulus_fight_to.html; Jeanne Cummings, “Obama Losing the Stimulus Message War,” Politico, February 5, 2009, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/18444.html.
221 support for the stimulus sank from 52 percent to 38 percent: CBS News poll, February 5, 2009, http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_020509.pdf.
10. From Zero to Sixty
222 the Senate approved the new S-CHIP: The final vote was 66–32, with nine Republicans joining all the Democrats in voting for the bill.
223 He tracked Collins down over the holidays: Manuel Roig-Franzia and Paul Kane, “Two Moderate GOP Senators Give Big Voice to Little Maine,” Washington Post, February 16, 2009.
224 There was a long history of senators “pairing votes”: Reid’s staff pointed out that two Republicans, John Warner of Virginia and Pete Domenici of New Mexico, paired votes with Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd, both ill, on a June 2008 vote on a Democratic budget plan. Warner and Domenici retired later that year. Congressional Record, June 4, 2008. In 2001, Biden offered to pair his vote with ninety-eight-year-old Senator Strom Thurmond on George W. Bush’s tax cut bill so that Thurmond could go home and rest. Thurmond declined the offer. “Attempt Nixed to Let Senator Miss Late-Night Votes,” Associated Press, May 22, 2001.
225 The only Republican to defeat an incumbent senator that year: In 1984, eleven Democrats ran for reelection. They all won except for Walter Huddleston of Kentucky. More Republican senators (two) lost that year than Democrats, despite President Reagan’s forty-nine-state victory.
226 a procedural trick called a “clay pigeon”: A senator uses the clay pigeon by calling up an amendment and later splitting it into dozens of pieces, each of which must be voted on. The technique gets its name from the skeet shooting target that explodes into bits.
227 In fact, he was the senator most responsible: The use of the filibuster roughly doubled when McConnell took over as minority leader in the Senate in 2007. Cloture motions—the procedure necessary to overcome a filibuster—averaged sixty-nine a year from 2007 to 2010. In the previous decade, the average number of cloture motions per year was just thirty-four. Records are available here: http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/cloture_motions/clotureCounts.htm.
228 Kan read everything: The CBO cost estimate of the Senate bill said that 78 percent of the stimulus money would be spent in 2009 and 2010. CBO cost estimate, February 10, 2009, http://www.cbo.gov/publication/20471, staff summary of Senate Democratic bill for Senate GOP leadership staff, February 7, 2009, document provided to the author. Senate Appropriations Committee report, January 27, 2009, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CRPT-111srpt3/pdf/CRPT-111srpt3.pdf. Senate GOP spreadsheet on cost-per-job of Recovery Act spending programs, January 30, 2009, document provided to the author.
229 a perfect image of bipartisan cooperation: The White House photo of President Obama and Governor Douglas moving the couch, February 2, 2009, can be viewed at http://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/4291167739/.
230 “an extraordinarily bold and aggressive, effective and comprehensive plan”: Obama announcement of Gregg as commerce secretary nominee, February 3, 2009, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85721.
231 “make it harder for his fellow Republicans to demonize Obama”: David Rogers, “Reid, Emanuel Pushed for Gregg,” Politico, February 9, 2009, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/18385.html.
232 he temporarily shed his Mr. Nice Guy persona: Obama speech at House Democratic retreat, February 5, 2009, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85739.
233 He marveled at the gall of Republicans: The national debt was at $5.7 trillion and falling when George W. Bush entered office in January 2001. When Bush left office eight years later, the national debt was at $10.6 trillion and soaring, an increase of $4.9 trilli
on. The Congressional Budget Office two weeks before Obama became president had already projected that the debt would grow by $1.2 trillion in 2009 without factoring in Obama’s policies. Official debt figures are posted by the Treasury Department at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd.htm. The CBO’s early January 2009 projection of that year’s deficit is available at http://www.cbo.gov/publication/41753.
234 “The American Option”: A summary of Senator DeMint’s stimulus plan is here: http://www.demint.senate.gov/public/_files/2009-02-02_DeMint_Jobs_Plan_Summary.pdf.
235 at least a dozen Democrats and half a dozen Republicans: Jay Newton-Small, “Can Ben Nelson Get a Bipartisan Stimulus Win?,” Time.com, February 6, 2009, http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1877535,00.html.
236 The Washington press corps showered the gang members: Dana Milbank, “A Horse and Pony Show,” Washington Post, February 6, 2009; David Brooks, “The Gang System,” New York Times, February 6, 2009.
237 unless somebody could figure out how to get Al Franken seated: Emanuel made the same complaint in an early profile by Ryan Lizza, when he unloaded on Paul Krugman’s criticism of the White House legislative strategy. “Write a fucking column on how to seat the son of a bitch,” Emanuel said. Lizza, “The Gatekeeper,” The New Yorker, March 2, 2009, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/03/02/090302fa_fact_lizza#ixzzlrTVWPrzL.
238 The Senate passed the slimmed-down bill: The roll call is here: http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=111&session=1&vote=00061.
239 McCain scoffed that Obama would need more than three Republicans: John McCain on Face the Nation, CBS, February 8, 2009.
240 “I am so happy bipartisanship is important”: Saturday Night Live, NBC, February 7, 2009, http://www.hulu.com/watch/56638/saturday-night-live-pelosireid-open.
241 Obama had written about the pathologies of modern Washington: Obama, The Audacity of Hope, p. 64.
242 Obama mused that he probably should have pretended: Obama press conference, February 9, 2009, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85728.
11. Done Deal
243 Rahm delivered a White House list: A ten-page “Detail Table—Spending Components,” dated February 10, 2009, provided to the author. It adds up to $512.53 billion, not including tax cuts.
244 The Congressional Budget Office had priced: CBO cost estimate, February 7, 2009, http://www.cbo.gov/publication/20468; CBO cost estimate for House-passed bill, January 30, 2009, http://www.cbo.gov/publication/41758.
245 Obama’s economists were clamoring: The December 20 transition memo on the meetings with Democratic staffers had flagged the AMT as a potential problem, noting their “strong desire” to include it. “Unless the Recovery bill’s topline total was adjusted to reflect the inclusion of AMT it would effectively shrink the stimulus resulting from the bill,” the memo warned. That’s exactly what happened.
246 an independent watchdog had concluded: “Audit Report: Rural Utilities Service Broadband Grant and Loan Programs,” USDA Office of Inspector General, September 2005, http://www.usda.gov/oig/webdocs/09601-04-TE.pdf.
247 The final spat on the Senate side: Lizza was the first to write about this encounter in his Rahm profile: “The Gatekeeper,” The New Yorker, March 2, 2009, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/03/02/090302fa_fact_lizza.
248 “They give me three aces”: David Rogers, “Senate Passes $787 Billion Stimulus Bill,” Politico, February 13, 2009, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/18837.html.
249 The president visited a Caterpillar plant: Obama speech, East Peoria, Illinois, February 12, 2009, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85762.
250 the company’s CEO told reporters: Jake Tapper, “D’oh! Caterpillar CEO Contradicts President on Whether Stimulus Will Allow Him to Re-Hire Laid Off Workers,” ABC News, February 12, 2009, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2009/02/doh-caterpillar/.
251 In fact, Gregg’s Wall Street Journal op-ed in January: Judd Gregg, “How to Make Sure the Stimulus Works,” Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2009.
252 “Mr. Obama’s victory feels more than a bit like defeat”: Paul Krugman, “Failure to Rise,” New York Times, February 13, 2009.
253 It was about the size: Florida’s output in 2009 was $737 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Netherlands’ 2009 GDP was $683 billion, according to the CIA World Factbook. The Pentagon’s 2009 budget was $513 billion, and non-defense discretionary spending in 2009 was $586 billion.
254 far more aggressive as a percentage of GDP: The Recovery Act’s cost peaked in 2010 at 2.8 percent of GDP. (It added $405 billion to the deficit, when GDP was $14.65 trillion.) The New Deal’s largest one-year cost was 1.5 percent of GDP in 1936, according to Romer’s analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Romer, “Back from the Brink,” http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/Back_from_the_Brink2.pdf. The Recovery Act’s cost was equal to 1.3 percent of GDP in 2009 and one percent of GDP in 2011, according to annual CBO budget outlook reports.
255 It dwarfed the stimulus packages: “Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead,” International Monetary Fund, May 14, 2010, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2010/fm1001.pdf. Eswar Prasad and Isaac Sorkin, “Assessing the G-20 Economic Stimulus Plans: A Deeper Look,” Brookings Institution, April 2009, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2009/03_g20_stimulus_prasad/03_g20_stimulus_prasad.pdf.
256 “Stimulus for Planes, Trains, but Mostly Automobiles”: iWatchNews, January 15, 2009, http://www.iwatchnews.org/2009/01/15/2973/stimulus-planes-trains-mostly-automobiles.
257 “We’ll put people to work building wind turbines”: Obama speech, East Peoria, Illinois, February 12, 2009, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85762.
258 The White House also helped Cantor out: The White House projected that Cao’s district would see a boost of 4,800 jobs, far less than the 7,000 to 8,000 jobs that other districts would get. The White House said its jobs estimates were based largely on population, and that the number for New Orleans reflected the loss in population due to Hurricane Katrina. Bruce Alpert, “Job Creation, Retention Benefit from Stimulus Bill Expected to Be Lowest in 2nd District,” New Orleans Times-Picayune, February 18, 2009.
259 the Republicans were joined in opposition: The House vote on the conference report is here: http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2009/roll070.xml. The Senate vote is here: http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=111&session=1&vote=00064.
260 “They are in essence betting against the president”: Adam Nagourney, “A Leader in the Senate Sees Sunny Skies for Democrats,” New York Times, February 17, 2009.
261 Obama was about to sign the Recovery Act into law: Obama remarks, Denver, Colorado, February 17, 2009, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85781.
262 “My gut tells me it’s too soon”: Saturday Night Live, NBC, February 14, 2009, http://www.hulu.com/watch.
12. Ready or Not
263 Vice President Biden also took a road trip: “Vice President Joe Biden Visits Cumberland County,” The Patriot-News, February 11, 2009; Michael Phillips, “Shovels Are There, but the Readiness May Not Be,” Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2009.
264 “The first principle of politics”: Joe Biden, Promises to Keep: On Life and Politics (New York: Random House, 2007) pp. xi–xxiii.
265 “If we do everything right”: Jake Tapper, “Oh, That Joe! (No. 47 in a Series)—The Veep Lays Out the Odds,” ABC News, February 10, 2009, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2009/02/oh-that-joe-no-7/.
266 priceless portraits of former vice presidents: They happen to be the portraits on the covers of David McCullough’s Adams biography and Joseph Ellis’s Jefferson biography. It’s a nice office.
267 He’d also block 260 Recovery Act projects: Michael Grunwald, “It’s Official: The Stimulus Isn’t a Waste of Money,” Time, October 1, 2010, http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2022
781,00.html.
268 “All of you are on the front lines”: Obama remarks at Recovery Act implementation conference, March 13, 2009, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85855.
269 Outside experts had warned that 5 percent of the stimulus: The Association of Certified Fraud Examiners estimates that U.S. organizations lose 5 percent to 7 percent of their revenues to fraud. Michael Cooper, “On the Lookout for Stimulus Fraud,” New York Times, September 17, 2009.
270 only $7.2 million in losses: “2010 Fiscal Year End Report to the President on Progress Implementing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009,” the White House, September 2010, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/recovery_act_report_9-30-2010.PDF.
271 An obscure Commerce Department agency: That was the National Telecommunications and Information Administration. The Federal Railroad Administration ran high-speed rail.
272 Only two of his fifteen cabinet departments: Peter Baker, “Obama Team Has Billions to Spend, but Few Ready to Do It,” New York Times, February 17, 2009.
273 Peter Orszag’s sixty-two-page single-spaced implementation memo: Peter Orszag, “Initial Implementing Guidance for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009,” Office of Management and Budget, February 19, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/memoranda_fy2009/m09-10.pdf.
274 he read a report chronicling the department’s history of dysfunction: “Management Challenges at the Department of Energy,” DOE Office of Inspector General, December 2008, http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/igprod/documents/IG-0808_%282%29.pdf.
275 $1 billion from elite investors: Michael Grunwald, “Big Name Investors Behind Obama’s Failed Green Tech Bet First in Line to Recoup Losses,” Swampland blog, Time, September 3, 2011, http://swampland.time.com/2011/09/03/big-name-investors-to-recoup-losses-before-taxpayers-in-obamas-failed-green-tech-bet/. A list of Solyndra’s investors was provided to the author.
276 The Bush administration had embraced Solyndra: Michael Grunwald, “Solyndra Hypocrisy: David Vitter Sought Energy Loans He Now Seeks to Scrutinize,” Swampland blog, Time, September 19, 2011, http://swampland.time.com/2011/09/19/solyndra-hypocrisy-david-vitter-sought-energy-loans-he-now-seeks-to-scrutinize/.
The New New Deal Page 54