by Bobby Akart
But some skeptics say it's the opposite. Jon Wellinghoff, who served as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—commonly known as FERC, from 2009 to 2013, has sounded the alarm about the danger of an attack on the system. The heightened awareness came as a result of an April 2013 incident in Silicon Valley, California, in which a group of attackers conducted a coordinated assault on an electrical substation, knocking out twenty-seven transformers. FERC points to the fact that the U.S. power grid is broken into three big sections known as interconnections. There is one each for the Eastern United States, the Western United States, and—out on its own—Texas. In fact, the East and West interconnections also include much of Canada and parts of Mexico.
In a 2013 report, FERC concluded that if a limited number of substations in each of those interconnections were disabled, utilities would not be able to bring the interconnections back up again for an indeterminate amount of time. FERC’s conclusion isn't classified information. This information has been in government reports and widely disseminated on the internet for years.
FERC also noted that it could take far longer to return the electrical grid to full functionality than it did in 2003. Wellinghoff said, "If you destroy the transformers—all it takes is one high-caliber bullet through a transformer case, and it's gone, you have to replace it. If there aren't spares on hand—and in the event of a coordinated attack on multiple substations, any inventory could be exhausted—it takes months to build new ones.”
"Once your electricity is out, your gasoline is out, because you can't pump the gas anymore. All your transportations out, all of your financial transactions are out, of course because there are no electronics," Wellinghoff also stated.
FERC’s proposed solution was to break the system into a series of microgrids. In the event of a cascading failure, smaller portions of the country could isolate themselves from the collapse of the grid. There is a precedent for this. Princeton University has an independent power grid. When a large part of the critical infrastructure collapsed during Superstorm Sandy, the Princeton campus became a place of refuge for residents and a command center for first responders.
These doomsday scenarios may be beside the point because the electrical grid is already subject to a series of dangerous stresses from natural disasters. Sandy showed that the assumptions used to build many parts of the electrical infrastructure were wrong. The storm surge overwhelmed the substations, causing them to flood, and subsequently fail. Experts determined that significant portions of the grid might need to be moved to higher ground.
Even away from the coasts, extreme weather can threaten the system in unexpected ways. Some systems use gas insulation, but if the temperature drops low enough, the gas composition changes and the insulation fails. Power plants in warmer places like Texas aren't well-prepared for extreme cold, meaning power-generating plants could fail when the population needs them the most to provide power for heat. As utilities rely more heavily on natural gas to generate power, there's a danger of demand exceeding supply. A likely scenario is a blizzard, in which everyone cranks up their propane or natural gas-powered heating systems. As the system becomes overwhelmed, the gas company can't provide to everyone. Power providers don't necessarily have the first right of refusal from their sources, so they could lose their supply and be forced to power down in the middle of a winter storm.
Summer doesn't necessarily offer any respite. Even prolonged droughts can play a role. As consumers turn up their air conditioners, requests for more power will increase. There can be a ratcheting effect. If there are several days of consistently high temperatures, buildings will never cool completely. The demand from local utilities will peak higher and higher each day. Power plants rely upon groundwater to cool their systems. They will struggle to maintain cooling as the water itself heats up. Droughts can diminish the power from hydroelectric plants, especially in the western United States.
If such extreme weather continues to be the norm, the chaos that was unleashed on the grid by Sandy may have been a preview of the kinds of disruptions to the grid, that might become commonplace. As the New York Herald argued in 1859, referring to the Carrington event, "Phenomena are not supposed to have any reference to things past—only to things to come. Therefore, the aurora borealis must be connected with something in the future—war, or pestilence, or famine." Although the impact of solar storms was not fully understood at the time, the prediction of catastrophe remains valid.
What protective measures are possible?
The Obama administration has taken steps to replace some of the aging satellites that monitor space weather, and extra-high-voltage transformers that are vulnerable to solar storms. The administration’s new plan also calls for scientists to establish benchmarks for weather events in space, incorporating something similar to the Richter scale. The strategy also includes assessing the vulnerability of the power grid, increasing international cooperation, and improving solar-flare forecast technology — a crucial step.
But Dr. Peter Pry, Chairman of the EMP Commission, says that neither the White House, nor Congress, is taking the threat seriously enough or acting with the appropriate urgency. According to Dr. Pry, it would cost about two billion dollars— the amount of foreign aid we give to Pakistan — to harden the nation's power grid to minimize the damage from either a nuclear EMP or a solar flare. "If we suspended that [aid] for one year and put it toward hardening the electrical grid," Pry says, "we could protect the American people from this threat."
Is this Science Fiction or Reality?
All of the events described above are plausible and have their roots in history. What could happen? Global Panic. Martial Law. Travel Restrictions. Food and Water Shortages. An Overload of the Medical System. Societal Collapse. Economic Collapse.
This is why we prep. Prepping is insurance against both natural and man-made catastrophic events. The government now requires you to carry medical insurance. Your homeowner's insurance may include damage from tornadoes. Even though you may never incur damage from a tornado, you pay for that coverage monthly nonetheless. This is what preppers do. We allocate time and resources to protect our families, in the event of seemingly unlikely events, but events that are occurring daily or have historical precedent.
We hope America is never impacted by a major space weather event, but what if?
This is a true story, it just hasn’t happened yet.
Go Back to Contents
APPENDIX C
NATIONAL SPACE WEATHER STRATEGY
To understand the magnitude of the threat our nation faces from all forms of space weather, and how to prepare for these eventualities, it is helpful to understand our government’s approach toward monitoring, protection, response, and recovery from Space Weather. As you read our government’s approach toward Space Weather, ask yourself whether this strategy adequately addresses the likely economic and societal collapse associated with a catastrophic collapse event of this magnitude.
The following has been reprinted with permission. It is the full text of the National Space Weather Strategy adopted in October 2015.
NATIONAL SPACE WEATHER STRATEGY
PRODUCT OF THE
National Science and Technology Council
October 2015
About the National Science and Technology Council
The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) is the principal means by which the Executive Branch coordinates science and technology policy across the diverse entities that make up the Federal research and development enterprise. One of the NSTC’s primary objectives is establishing clear national goals for Federal science and technology investments. The NSTC prepares R&D packages aimed at accomplishing multiple national goals. The NSTC’s work is organized under five committees: Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability (CENRS); Homeland and National Security; Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Education; Science; and Technology. Each of these committees oversees subcommittees and working g
roups that are focused on different aspects of science and technology. More information is available at www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/nstc.
About the Office of Science and Technology Policy
The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was established by the National Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976. OSTP’s responsibilities include advising the President in policy formulation and budget development on questions in which science and technology are important elements; articulating the President’s science and technology policy and programs; and fostering strong partnerships among Federal, State, and local governments, and the scientific communities in industry and academia. The Director of OSTP also serves as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and manages the NSTC. More information is available at www.whitehouse.gov/ostp.
About the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force
The Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) task force, an interagency group organized under the NSTC, CENRS, Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR), was chartered in November 2014 to develop a national strategy and a national action plan to enhance national preparedness for space-weather events.
About this Document
This document was developed by the SWORM Task Force. It was released in draft for public comment on the Federal Register (80 FR 24296), was reviewed by SDR and CENRS, and was finalized and published by OSTP.
Acknowledgements
The SWORM Task Force acknowledges the contributions from the IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute for providing subject-matter expertise, constructive review, and other contributions to the development of this strategy.
Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Task Force
Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Department of Homeland Security
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Members – Departments
Department of Commerce
Department of Defense
Department of Energy
Department of Homeland Security
Department of the Interior
Department of State
Department of Transportation
Agencies and Service Branches
Federal Aviation Administration Federal Communications Commission
Federal Emergency Management Agency
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Science Foundation
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
United States Air Force
United States Geological Survey
United States Navy
United States Postal Service
Executive Office of the President
National Security Council
Office of Management and Budget
Office of Science and Technology Policy
White House Military Office
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20502
October 29, 2015
Dear Colleagues,
Space weather is a naturally occurring phenomenon that has the potential to cause substantial detrimental effects on the Nation’s economic and social well-being. Preparing for and predicting space-weather events and their potential effects on Earth is a significant challenge. Recent efforts led by the United States and its international partners have resulted in significant progress toward improving the understanding, monitoring, prediction, and mitigation of this hazard, but much more needs to be done.
Over the past 5 years, OSTP has coordinated interagency efforts to improve the Nation's ability to prepare, avoid, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the potentially devastating impacts of space-weather events. These efforts included the establishment of the interagency Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force in November 2014. The goal of the SWORM Task Force was to unite the national- and homeland-security enterprise with the science and technology enterprise to formulate a cohesive vision to enhance national preparedness for space weather.
This National Space Weather Strategy and accompanying National Space Weather Action Plan are the result of the SWORM Task Force’s efforts. These documents transcend agency-mission and sector boundaries to describe how the Federal Government will coordinate its efforts on space weather and how the Federal Government plans to engage academia, the private and public sectors, and other governments on space weather. The Strategy and associated Action Plan aim to enhance the preparedness of the Nation by interweaving and building upon existing policy efforts to identify overarching goals that underpin and drive the activities necessary to improve the security and resilience of critical technologies and infrastructures.
These documents represent only a next step to improving national preparedness for space weather. The Strategy sets overall goals for Federal action, while the Action Plan establishes Federal actions and timelines for implementation. Many of these activities will require long time horizons, which will necessitate sustained engagement among government agencies and the private sector. This challenge requires the Nation to work together to continually improve understanding, prediction, and preparedness to enhance the Nation’s resilience against severe space-weather events.
Sincerely,
John P. Holdren
Assistant to the President for Science and Technology
Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction
Implementation of the National Space Weather Strategy
Enhancing National Preparedness and Critical Infrastructure Resilience
Strategic Goals
1. Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events
2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities
3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts
4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure
5. Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting
6. Increase International Cooperation
Conclusion
Executive Summary
Space weather refers to variations in the space environment between the sun and Earth (and throughout the solar system) that can affect technologies in space and on Earth. Space weather can disrupt the technology that forms the backbone of this country’s economic vitality and national security, including satellite and airline operations, communications networks, navigation systems, and the electric power grid. As the Nation becomes ever more dependent on these technologies, space weather poses an increasing risk to infrastructure and the economy. Further, the Strategic National Risk Assessment has identified space weather as a hazard that poses significant risk to the security of the Nation. Clearly, reducing vulnerability to space weather needs to be a national priority.
The National Space Weather Strategy (Strategy) and the accompanying National Space Weather Action Plan (Action Plan) together seek to enhance the integration of existing national efforts and to add important capabilities to help meet growing demands for space-weather information. The Strategy and Action Plan build on recent efforts to reduce risks associated with natural hazards and improve resilience of essential facilities and systems, aiming to foster a collaborative environment in which government, industry, and the American people can better understand and prepare for the effects of space weather. The Nation must continue to leverage existing public and private networks of expertise and capabilities and pursue targeted enhancements to improve the ability to manage risks associated with space weather.
Six strategic goals underpin the effort to reduce the Nation’s vulnerability to s
pace weather:
1. Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events: Effective and appropriate actions for space-weather events require an understanding of the magnitude and frequency of such events. Benchmarks will help government and industry assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, establish decision points and thresholds for action, understand risk, and provide points of reference to enable mitigation procedures and practices and to enhance response and recovery planning.
2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities: There is a need to develop comprehensive guidance to support and improve response and recovery capabilities to manage space-weather events, including the capabilities of Federal, State, and local governments and of the private sector.
3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts: Improvements to national preparedness for space-weather events will require enhancing approaches to protection and mitigation. Protection focuses on developing capabilities and actions to secure the Nation from the effects of space weather, including vulnerability reduction. Mitigation focuses on minimizing risks, addressing cascading effects, and enhancing disaster resilience. Implementation of these preparedness missions requires joint action from public and private stakeholders whose shared expertise and responsibilities are embedded in the Nation’s infrastructure systems.
4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure: Timely, reliable, actionable, and relevant decision-support services during space-weather events are essential to improving national preparedness. Societal effects must be understood to better inform the actions necessary during extreme events and to encourage appropriate mitigation and protection measures before an incident.
5. Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting: Opportunity exists to improve the fundamental understanding of space weather and increase the accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of space-weather observations and forecasts (and related products and services). The underpinning science and observations will help drive advances in modeling capability and improve the quality of space-weather products and services. There is also a need to improve capacity to develop and transition the latest scientific and technological advances into space- weather operations centers.