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by Stanley B Greenberg


  19. Cindy Boren, “Nike’s Colin Kaepernick Ad Campaign Gets More Yeas Than Nays from Young People,” The Washington Post, September 13, 2018; Jia Wertz, “Taking Risks Can Benefit Your Brand—Nike’s Kaepernick Campaign Is a Perfect Example,” Forbes, September 30, 2018.

  20. James Hohmann, “‘The Last Election Was a Wake-Up Call: Why GOP Leaders Are Turning on Steve King,” The Washington Post, January 11, 2019.

  21. Pew Research Center, “Americans Broadly Support Legal Status for Immigrants Brought to the US Illegally as Children,” http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/06/18/americans-broadly-support-legal-status-for-immigrants-brought-to-the-u-s-illegally-as-children/, accessed July 8, 2018.

  22. Pew Research Center, “Partisan Divide,” http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/4-race-immigration-and-discrimination/, accessed July 8, 2018.

  23. Ibid.

  24. Ibid.

  25. Ibid.

  26. Ibid.

  27. Ibid.

  28. Ibid.

  29. Ibid.

  30. Ibid.

  31. Ibid.

  32. Ibid.

  2     THE GOP COUNTERREVOLUTION AGAINST THE NEW AMERICA

  1. Ramesh Ponnuru, “The Right’s Civil Wrongs,” National Review, June 21, 2010, 2018; Matthew Yglesias, “Reagan’s Race Record,” The Atlantic, November 9, 2007, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2007/11/reagans-race-record/46875/, accessed September 14, 2018.

  2. Yglesias, “Reagan’s Race Record,” The Atlantic.

  3. USCB American Presidency Project, “Richard Nixon’s Address Accepting the Presidential Nomination at the Republican National Convention in Miami Beach, Florida,” August 8, 1968, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25968, accessed September 14, 2018; “Address to the Nation on the War in Vietnam,” November 3, 1969, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=2303, accessed September 14, 2018.

  4. Associated Press, “Gravely Ill, Atwater Offers Apology,” The New York Times, January 13, 1991, https://www.nytimes.com/1991/01/13/us/gravely-ill-atwater-offers-apology.html, accessed September 14, 2018.

  5. Palin’s Speech at the Republican National Convention, September 4, 2008, https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/president/conventions/videos/transcripts/20080903_PALIN_SPEECH.html; Alex Spillius, “Sarah Palin accuses Barack and Michelle Obama of being unpatriotic,” November 19, 2010, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/sarah-palin/8147673/Sarah-Palin-accuses-Barack-and-Michelle-Obama-of-being-unpatriotic.html, accessed March 26, 2019.

  6. “were fine people, on both sides”, President Trump’s remarks at Trump Tower on Charlottesville, transcript of the question-and-answer session provided by the Federal News Service, August 15, 2017.

  7. See Ari Berman, “How the 2000 Election in Florida Led to a New Wave of Voter Disenfranchisement,” The Nation, July 28, 2015, https://www.thenation.com/article/how-the-2000-election-in-florida-led-to-a-new-wave-of-voter-disenfranchisement/, accessed September 14, 2018.

  8. Ibid.

  9. Robert D. Loevy, David C. Kozak, and Kenneth N. Ciboski, eds., The American Presidency (Chicago: Nelson Hall, 1985), pp. 411–19.

  10. Bill Moyers, Moyers on America: A Journalist and His Times (New York: The New Press, 2004), p. 167.

  11. Jonathan Chait, “The Color of His Presidency,” New York Magazine, April 6, 2014; Avidit Acharya, Matthrew Blackwell, and Maya Sen, “The Political Legacy of American Slavery,” The Journal of Politics 78, no. 3 (July 2016): pp. 621–41, February 13, 2014.

  12. Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels, Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016), pp. 246–50.

  13. Ibid., pp. 253–57.

  14. Griswold v. Connecticut, 381 U.S. 479 (1965).

  15. Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973).

  16. UC Santa Barbara, The American Presidency Project, “1980 Democratic Platform,” http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=29607, accessed August 2, 2018.

  17. UC Santa Barbara, The American Presidency Project, “1980 Republican Platform,” http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25844, accessed September 12, 2018.

  18. Ann Devroy, “Clinton Cancels Abortion Restrictions of Reagan-Bush Era,” The Washington Post, January 23, 1993, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/01/23/clinton-cancels-abortion-restrictions-of-reagan-bush-era/0e145a5a-0b37-4908-8c4d-44643f62b0a0/?utm_term=.3cd8d263d4b7, accessed September 14, 2018.

  19. Ibid.

  20. Remarks by President William J. Clinton on signing memorandums on medical research and reproductive health and an exchange with reporters given in the Roosevelt Room in the White House, January 22, 1993.

  21. James C. Dobson, Focus on Family newsletter, February 2001; James Davison Hunter, Culture Wars: The Struggle to Define America (New York: Basic Books, 1991), pp. 112–3, 130.

  22. Eric D. Gould and Esteban F. Klor, “Party Hacks and True Believers: The Effect of Party Affiliation on Political Preferences,” Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2017, https://scholars.huji.ac.il/sites/default/files/eklor/files/abortion_october_25_2015.pdf, accessed September 14, 2018.

  23. William V. D’Antonio, Steven A. Tuch, and Josiah R. Baker, Religion, Politics, and Polarization: How Religiopolitical Conflict Is Changing Congress and American Democracy, Mitchellville, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, June 20, 2013, pp. 35, 40, 49–50.

  24. Alan Cooperman, “Openly Religious, to a Point,” The Washington Post, September 16, 2004; Tim Griffin, “What Went Wrong in 2012? The Case of the 4 Million Missing Voters,” RedState, November 14, 2012; Alan Cooperman and Thomas B. Edsall, “Evangelicals Say They Led Charge for the GOP,” The Washington Post, November 8, 2004; Bob Allen, “Miers Withdraws as Supreme Court Nominee,” Ethics Daily, October 27, 2005.

  25. Brian Faler, “Election Turnout in 2004 Was Highest Since 1968,” The Washington Post, January 15, 2005; Stanley B. Greenberg, The Two Americas: Our Current Political Deadlock and How to Break It (New York: Thomas Dunne Books, 2005), pp. 321–25; Griffin, “What Went Wrong in 2012?” RedState.

  26. Rosa DeLauro, The Least Among Us: Waging the Battle for the Vulnerable (New York: The New Press, 2017), Kindle location 1977.

  27. Ibid.

  28. Juliet Lapidos, “Mike Huckabee’s War for Women,” The New York Times, January 24, 2014.

  29. Burwell, et al. v. Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc., 573 U.S. ___ (2014).

  30. National survey of 1,301 adults by NORC at the University of Chicago, March 20–September 5, 2012, cited by Tom Smith and Jaesok Son, “Trends in Public Attitudes About Sexual Morality,” NORC General Social Survey 2012 final report, April 2013, p. 10; national survey of 1,001 adults by Pew Research Center, March 25–April 14, 2011, cited by Jacob Poushter in “What’s Morally Acceptable? It Depends on Where in the World You Live,” Pew Research Center, April 15, 2014; Robert Putnam and David Campbell, American Grace (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012), Kindle location 1876.

  31. Annamarya Scaccia, “What Trump’s Abstinence-Only Education Budget Means for Young People,” Teen Vogue, February 21, 2018, https://www.teenvogue.com/story/trumps-abstinence-only-education-budget-means-for-young-people, accessed September 14, 2018.

  32. Joshua Linder, “The Amnesty Effect: Evidence from the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act,” Public Purpose (Spring 2011): pp. 13–31.

  33. Remarks by President Ronald Reagan at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, April 30, 1984.

  34. William V. Roebuck, Jr., “The Move to Employment-Based Immigration in the Immigration Act of 1990: Towards a New Definition of Immigrant,” North Carolina Journal of International Law and Commercial Regulation, vol. 16, & no. 3, 523 (1991), p. 524.

  35. Calculations done using historical data on illegal immigration, Pew Hispanic Center, “Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the U.S. Lower in 2015 Than in 2009,” May 1, 2017, http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/09/14/facts-on-u-s-immigrants/ph_stat-portraits_foreign-born-2015_key-ch
arts_unauthorized-pop/, accessed September 14, 2018, and Pew Hispanic Center, “Characteristic of US-Born Foreign Population,” September 14, 2018, http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/09/14/facts-on-u-s-immigrants-trend-data/, accessed September 14, 2018.

  36. Ibid.

  37. Ibid.

  38. Ibid.

  39. Steve Kornacki, The Red and the Blue: The 1990s and the Birth of Political Tribalism, Harper Collins, October 2, 2018, p. 157.

  40. Timothy Stanley, The Crusader: The Life and Tumultuous Times of Pat Buchanan, Macmillan, February 14, 2012, p. 2.

  41. Steve Kornacki, The Red and the Blue, p. 154.

  42. Ibid, p.152.

  43. Ibid, p.153.

  44. Timothy Stanley, The Crusader, p. 21.

  45. Southern Poverty Law Center, “In 2018, We Tracked 1,020 Hate Groups Across the U.S.” February 21, 2019, accessed February 21, 2019.

  46. Robert Pear, “Clinton Objects to Key Part of Welfare Bill,” The New York Times, March 27, 1995, https://www.nytimes.com/1995/03/26/us/clinton-objects-to-key-elements-of-welfare-bill.html, accessed September 18, 2018.

  47. John F. Harris and John E. Yang, “Clinton to Sign Bill Overhauling Welfare,” The Washington Post, August 1, 1996, https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/welfare/stories/wf080196.htm.

  48. Gebe Martinez, “Learning from Proposition 187,” Center for American Progress, May 5, 2010.

  49. “Growth and Opportunity Project,” Republican National Committee, 2013, p. 8.

  50. Seung Min Kim, “Cantor Loss Kills Immigration Reform,” Politico, June 10, 2014, https://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/2014-virginia-primary-eric-cantor-loss-immigration-reform-107697, accessed September 14, 2018.

  51. Survey of 1,005 adults by United Technologies for the National Journal/Congressional Connection, June 20–23, 2013.

  52. Steve Kornacki, The Red and the Blue, p. 294.

  53. Ron Elving, “The Florida Recount Of 2000: A Nightmare That Goes On Haunting,” NPR, November 12, 2018, https://www.npr.org/2018/11/12/666812854/the-florida-recount-of-2000-a-nightmare-that-goes-on-haunting, accessed April 5, 2019; Wade Payson-Denney, “So, who really won? What the Bush v. Gore studies showed,” CNN, October 31, 2015, https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/politics/bush-gore-2000-election-results-studies/index.html, accessed April 5, 2019; Jon Schwarz, “Democrats Should Remember Al Gore Won Florida in 2000—But Lost the Presidency with a Pre-Emptive Surrender,” The Intercept, November 10, 2018, https://theintercept.com/2018/11/10/democrats-should-remember-al-gore-won-florida-in-2000-but-lost-the-presidency-with-a-preemptive-surrender/, accessed April 5, 2019.

  54. Pew Hispanic Center, “Foreign Born Population in the United States, 1850–2016,” September 14, 2018, http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/09/14/facts-on-u-s-immigrants/#fb-key-charts-population.

  55. Larry M. Bartels, Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age-Second Edition (Princeton, NJ: Russell Sage Foundation with Princeton University Press, 2016), p. 292.

  56. Ibid., pp. 298–99.

  57. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Real Median Household Income in the United States [MEHOINUSA672N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N, September 14, 2018.

  58. Bartels, Unequal Democracy, p. 300.

  59. Ibid.

  60. Ibid.

  61. Ibid.; Emmanuel Saez, “Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2014 Preliminary Estimates),” University of California at Berkeley, June 25, 2015, https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2014.pdf, accessed September 14, 2018.

  62. Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, “How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End,” Economy.com, July 27, 2010, https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/End-of-Great-Recession.pdf, accessed September 14, 2018.

  63. Ibid., pp. 296–98.

  64. Frank James, National Public Radio, October 26, 2012, https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/10/26/163730734/obama-may-not-need-to-repeat-2008-support-from-white-voters-to-win, accessed September 12, 2018.

  65. John Sides, “Race, Religion and Immigration in 2016: How the Debate over American Identity Shaped the Election and What It Means for a Trump Presidency,” Democracy Fund Study Group, June 2017.

  66. Abena Agyeman-Fisher, “Limbaugh on Obama Win: ‘I Went to Bed Last Night Thinking We’ve Lost the Country’” NewsOne, November 7, 2012, https://newsone.com/2076846/rush-limbaugh-obama-election-2012/, accessed September 18, 2018; Ashley Elizabeth Jardina, “Demise of Dominance: Group Threat and the New Relevance of White Identity for American Politics,” (PhD diss., University of Michigan, 2014), p. 138.

  67. Allison Dale-Riddle and Don Kinder, The End of Race? Obama, 2008, and Racial Politics in America” (Yale University Press, 2012), Kindle locations 1713–1772.

  68. Jardina, “Demise,” pp. 89–110.

  69. Ibid.

  70. PRRI polls in 2012–2013 cited in Racial Attitudes graphic posted May 8, 2014, on http://publicreligion.org/research/graphic-of-the-week/racial-attitudes/.

  71. Ibid.

  72. Ibid.

  73. Kinder, The End of Race?, Kindle locations 1139–1140.

  74. Luke Johnson and Ryan Grim, “Is the Tea Party Racist? Ask Some Actual, Out-of-the-Closet Racists,” Huffington Post, October, 24, 2013, https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/24/tea-party-racist_n_4158262.html, accessed September 14, 2018.

  75. Kinder, The End of Race?, Kindle location 2813.

  76. Ibid., Kindle location 2807, see also figure 6.2.

  77. Ian Gordon and Tasneem Raja, “164 Anti-immigration Laws Passed Since 2010? A MoJo Analysis,” Mother Jones, March/April 2012.

  78. John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2013), p. 208.

  79. Gallup, “Immigration” time series chart, https://news.gallup.com/poll/1660/immigration.aspx, accessed September 14, 2018; Pew Research Center, “Shifting Public Views on Legal Immigration into the U.S.,” June 2018, http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/06/02164131/06-28-2018-Immigration-release.pdf, accessed September 18, 2018.

  80. Washington Post–ABC News Poll, August 26–29, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/trump-immigration-dealing-illegal/2018/09/04/540e8446-b029-11e8-8b53-50116768e499_page.html, accessed September 12, 2018.

  81. This is based on findings from the first phase of research for Democracy Corps’ Republican Party Project. Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted six focus groups among Republican partisans—divided into Evangelicals, Tea Party adherents, and moderates—between July 30 and August 1, 2013. All participants indicated that they voted only or mostly for Republican candidates and were screened on a battery of ideological and political indicators. The groups were conducted in Raleigh, North Carolina (moderate and Tea Party), Roanoke, Virginia (Tea Party and Evangelical), and Colorado Springs, Colorado (moderate and Evangelical).

  82. National web survey of 800 likely Republican voters was conducted by Democracy Corps & Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on February 11–16, 2016, using a voter file sample. Likely voters were determined based on whether they voted in 2012 or had registered since and stated intention of voting in 2016. Data is among those who identify as Republicans or independents who lean Republican and vote in Republican primaries or caucuses. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.47 percentage points at 95 percent confidence. The five categories of Republicans are mutually exclusive categories determined by respondents’ responses on ideology, religion, frequency of service attendance, strength of Tea Party support, and favorability toward the Tea Party. To ensure that the web survey accurately reflects the national Republican Party, the typologies were weighted to the average for each type from Democracy Corps’s last three national surveys. http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1025/Dcorps_RPP_Web%20Survey_2.29.2016_UPDATED%20FINAL.pdf, accessed Septmeber 18, 2018.

/>   83. These quotes and the preceding quotes are based on focus groups conducted by Democracy Corps as part of the Republican Party Project. Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted six focus groups among Republican partisans—divided into Evangelicals, Tea Party adherents, and moderates—between July 30 and August 1, 2013. All participants indicated that they voted only or mostly for Republican candidates and were screened on a battery of ideological and political indicators. The groups were conducted in Raleigh, North Carolina (moderate and Tea Party), Roanoke, Virigina (Tea Party and Evangelical), and Colorado Springs, Colorado (moderate and Evangelical).

 

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