125. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “NOAA: 2017 was Third Warmest Year on Record for the Globe,” https://www.noaa.gov/news/noaa-2017-was-3rd-warmest-year-on-record-for-globe; CNN, “Louisiana Flood: Worst U.S. Disaster Since Sandy,” https://www.cnn.com/2016/08/18/us/louisiana-flooding/index.html; ABC News, “Hurricane Harvey Projected to Be 2nd Costliest Storm in U.S History,” https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-harvey-projected-2nd-costliest-storm-us-history/story?id=49565583; “Extreme Hurricanes and Wildfires Made 2017 the Most Costly Disaster Year on Record,” The Washington Post, January 8, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/01/08/hurricanes-wildfires-made-2017-the-most-costly-u-s-disaster-year-on-record/?utm_term=.3c63590bc891; all accessed October 19, 2018.
126. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Global Warming of 1.5 °C: an IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty,” published October 8, 2018.
127. John Schwartz and Nadja Popovich, “2018 Continues Warmng Trend as 4th Hottest Year Since 1880,” The New York Times, February 7, 2019.
128. Joseph Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society Endangers Our Future (New York: Norton, 2013), p. 8; Paul Krugman, “Why We’re in a New Gilded Age,” The New York Times, May 8, 2014; Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2014), p. 47.
129. Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, pp. 292–93, 298; Krugman, “Why We’re in a New Gilded Age.”
130. Krugman, “Why We’re in a New Gilded Age”; Lawrence Mishel and Alyssa Davis, “CEO Pay Continues to Rise as Typical Workers Are Paid Less,” Economic Policy Institute, June 12, 2014.
131. Mishel and Davis, “CEO Pay Continues to Rise as Typical Workers Are Paid Less”; Gretchen Morgenson, “An Unstoppable Climb in C.E.O. Pay,” The New York Times, June 29, 2013.
132. Theo Francis, “Many S&P CEOs Got a Raise in 2018 That Lifted Their Pay to $1 Million a Month,” The Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/many-s-p-500-ceos-got-a-raise-in-2018-that-lifted-their-pay-to-1-million-a-month-11552820400, accessed March 28, 2019.
133. Tax Foundation, “Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” December 18, 2017, https://taxfoundation.org/final-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-details-analysis/, accessed December 27, 2018; Lawrence Mishel and Jessica Schider, “CEO Compensation Surged in 2017,” Economic Policy Institute, August 16, 2018, https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-compensation-surged-in-2017/, accessed December 28, 2018.
134. Alexander Tucciarone “U.S. Corporations Are Splurging on Stock Buybacks while Worker Wages Stagnate,” Roosevelt Institute, July 31, 2018, http://rooseveltinstitute.org/new-report-us-corporations-are-splurging-stock-buybacks/, accessed May 3, 2019.
135. Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality, p. 28.
136. “History of Federal Individual Income Bottom and Top Bracket Rates,” National Taxpayers Union, accessed August 13, 2014; Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-first Century, pp. 499, 508–10.
137. Jacob Hacker and Paul S. Pierson, Winner-Take-All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), pp. 170–71; Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality, pp. 131–32.
138. Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality, p. 47.
139. Stanley B. Greenberg, America Ascendent: A Revolutionary Nation’s Path to Addressing Its Deepest Problems and Leading the 21st Century (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2015), p. 81.
140. Richard V. Burkhauser, Jeff Larrimore, and Kosali I. Simon, “A ‘Second Opinion’ on the Economic Health of the American Middle Class,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 17164, June 2011; Ron Haskins, “The Myth of the Disappearing Middle Class,” The Washington Post, March 29, 2012; Scott Winship, “Stop Feeling Sorry for the Middle Class!” Brookings Institute, February 7, 2012, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/stop-feeling-sorry-for-the-middle-class-theyre-doing-just-fine/; Bruce D. Meyer and James X. Sullivan, “Sorry, Mr. Biden, Most Middle Class Americans Are Better Off Now Than They Were Thirty Years Ago,” Fox News, October 24, 2011.
141. Burkhauser, Larrimore, and Simon, “A ‘Second Opinion,’” pp. 33–34.
142. Ibid.
143. Haskins, “The Myth of the Disappearing Middle Class.”
144. Ibid.
145. Sabrina Tavernise, “Education Gap Grows Between Rich and Poor, Studies Say,” The New York Times, February 9, 2012.
5 PRESIDENT TRUMP’S GOP IN BATTLE
1. Kevin Roose, “Cesar Sayoc’s Path on Social Media: From Food Photos to Partisan Fury,” The New York Times, October 29, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/27/technology/cesar-sayoc-facebook-twitter.html, accessed March 28, 2019.
2. Southern Poverty Law Center, “In 2018, We Tracked 1,020 Hate Groups Across the U.S.” February 21, 2019, p. 3, accessed February 21, 2019.
3. Laurie Goodstein, “‘There is still so much evil’: Growing Anti-Semitism Stuns American Jews,” New York Times, October 29, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/29/us/anti-semitism-attacks.html, accessed March 28, 2019; Deadly Shooting at Pittsburgh Synagogue, Anti-Defamation League, October 27, 2018, https://www.adl.org/blog/deadly-shooting-at-pittsburgh-synagogue, accessed March 28, 2019.
4. Southern Poverty Law Center, “In 2018, We Tracked 1,020 Hate Groups Across the U.S.” February 21, 2019, p. 5, accessed February 21, 2019.
5. Data is derived from a combined dataset among 6,069 Republicans interviewed from April through September 2018.
6. On behalf of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, Democracy Corps conducted a series of three phone surveys with accompanying web surveys among an ongoing panel of minorities, millennials, unmarried women, and white non-college-educated women (RAE+) in twelve states with governor races (ten Senate races): Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. The phone survey of 1,000 registered voters with 66 percent cell rate was conducted September 4–10, 2018. The voter-file-matched web panel of 1,085 RAE+ registered voters was conducted August 28–September 10.
7. Democracy Corps conducted a focus group among white Republican and Republican-leaning independent women who self-identified as conservative and Evangelical in Raleigh, North Carolina, on August 10, 2018. All these women voted for Donald Trump in 2016.
8. Democracy Corps and Greenberg Research conducted a web survey of 1,200 Republicans and Republican-leaning independent registered voters nationally between August 21 and August 26, 2018.
9. Democracy Corps conducted a focus group of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent Catholic conservative and observant Catholic men who voted for Trump in 2016 from Macomb County on July 11, 2018.
10. Democracy Corps conducted a focus group on July 16, 2018, with Republicans and Republican-leaning independent white women from Oakland County, Michigan, who are ideologically moderate and don’t identify as Evangelical Christian or observant Catholic. They are mostly working class. All but one third-party voter voted for Trump in 2016.
11. John Cassidy, “Donald Trump’s Unhinged Obsession with ‘a Man Named John McCain,’” The New Yorker, March 21, 2019, https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trumps-unhinged-obsession-with-a-man-named-john-mccain, accessed March 28, 2019.
12. Our polling found this 1-to-10 scale had the highest correlation with actually voting when compared with other types of election enthusiasm measures.
6 THE NEW AMERICA STRIKES BACK
1. Ron Brownstein, “Republicans Didn’t Learn Anything from the Midterms,” The Atlantic, November 29, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/trump-cost-gop-midterms/576850/, accessed December 5, 2018; Dave Wasserman and Ally Flinn, “2018 House Popul
ar Vote Tracker,” Cook Political Report, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/edit#gid=0, accessed December 5, 2018; Michael McDonald, “United States Election Project,” https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/edit#gid=0, accessed December 5, 2018.
2. An election phone poll of 1,250 registered voters, including 900 in a fifteen-state battleground was conducted November 4–7, 2018, from a voter-file sample. 1,125 nationally and 800 in the battleground were voters in 2018. Two thirds of respondents were contacted on cell phones in order to accurately reflect the American electorate. Votes and vote share for key demographics were weighted to the AP VoteCast. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-2.77 and +/-3.27 in the fifteen-state presidential battleground at a 95 percent confidence interval.
3. On behalf of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, Democracy Corps conducted a series of four phone surveys with accompanying web surveys among an ongoing panel of minorities, millennials, unmarried women, and white non-college-educated women (RAE+) in twelve states with governor races (10 Senate races): Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. The phone survey of 714 registered voters with 66 percent cell rate was conducted November 4–7, 2018. The voter-file-matched web panel of 791 RAE+ registered voters was conducted November 1–14, 2018.
4. Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by two points in 2016, but Trump won these twelve battleground states by a margin of three points. According to the exit polls, Clinton won unmarried women nationally 62 to 33 (+29) in 2016. In 2018, Democratic House candidates won unmarried women nationally 66 to 31 (+35) and won them 68 to 31 (+37) in this twelve-state battleground. White unmarried women nationally voted 55 to 43 (+12) for Democratic House candidates in 2018 after voting 48 to 46 (+2) for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
5. Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen, and Thomas. “A Split Decision in a Divided Nation: What the 2018 Midterms Means for Succeeding in Washington,” December 5, 2018, http://mehlmancastagnetti.com/wp-content/uploads/Split-Decision-2018Midterms.pdf, accessed December 11, 2018.
6. It’s about a 16.5 percent underperformance from Trump’s 2016 support to the Republican Senate Margin in 2018. Note a lot of this is due to West Virginia. Calculations done from data found by J. Miles Coleman, “2018 Senate: How the ‘Trump Ten’ Races Compared to 2016,” Rasmussen Reports, November 15, 2016, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_j_miles_coleman/2018_senate_how_the_trump_ten_races_compared_to_2016, accessed December 11, 2018.
7. Democracy Corps conducted the second in a series of two web surveys among an ongoing panel of 1,280 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in twelve states with governor races (10 Senate races): Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. This web survey took place November 3–16, 2018.
8. Erin Durkin, Trump claims media are blaming him for New Zealand shooting, The Guardian, March 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/mar/18/trump-claims-media-is-blaming-him-for-new-zealand-shooting, accessed March 23, 2019.
7 IS THIS ALL THEY HAVE TO OFFER WORKING PEOPLE?
1. J. D. Vance, Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis (New York: HarperCollins, 2017), p. 1.
2. Stanley Greenberg, Politics and Poverty: Modernization and Response in Five Poor Neighborhoods (New York: Wiley and Sons, 1974), p. 26.
3. Vance, Hillbilly Elegy, p. 142.
4. Ibid., p.4.
5. Ibid., pp. 144–47.
6. Ibid., pp. 75–77.
7. Ibid., p. 4.
8. Ibid., p. 7.
9. Ibid., pp. 5–7.
10. Ibid., p. 7.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid., p. 5.
13. Ibid.
14. Tweet by Larry H. Summers, https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/816041644013342721, accessed 4/9/18.
15. Jennifer Senior, “In ‘Hillbilly Elegy,’ a Tough Love Analysis of the Poor Who Back Trump,” The New York Times, August 10, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/books/review-in-hillbilly-elegy-a-compassionate-analysis-of-the-poor-who-love-trump.html, accessed April 12, 2018.
16. Joshua Rothman, “The Lives of Poor White People,” The New Yorker, September 12, 2016, https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/the-lives-of-poor-white-people, accessed April 12, 2018.
17. Ibid.
18. Vance, Hillbilly Elegy, p. 232.
19. Interview with J. D. Vance by Rod Dreher, “Trump: Tribune of Poor White People,” The American Conservative, July 22, 2016.
20. Ibid.
21. Ibid.
22. Geoffrey Norman, “Hillbilly Elegy’s Unsparing Look at Those Left Behind,” The Weekly Standard, September 4, 2016, accessed April 12, 2018.
23. Ibid.
24. Mark Hemingway, “This Blockbuster Book Explores the State of Hillbilly America,” The Federalist, August 5, 2016, https://thefederalist.com/2016/08/05/this-blockbuster-book-explores-the-state-of-hillbilly-america/, accessed April 12, 2018.
25. Ibid.
26. Rothman, “Lives of Poor White People.”
27. Greenberg, Politics and Poverty, pp. 75–76.
28. See for example Edward Banfield, The Unheavenly City (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1970).
29. Greenberg, Politics and Poverty, pp. 1–5.
30. Ibid., pp. 34–35.
31. Ibid., pp. 32–34.
32. Ibid., pp. 49–51.
33. Ibid., p. 52.
34. Ibid., pp. 208–14.
35. Ibid., pp. 43–48.
36. Ibid., pp. 53–58.
37. Ibid., pp. 59–63.
38. Ibid., pp. 64–71.
39. David E. Bonior, Eastside Kid: A Memoir of My Youth from Detroit to Congress, (Prospecta Press, 2014), p. 19.
40. Courtney Balestier, “In Search of the Hillbilly Highway,” Metromode, Metro Detroit, November 10, 2016.
41. Ibid.; Courtney Balestier, “Beans and Dobros: Preserving What’s Left of Appalachia in Detroit,” Metromode, Metro Detroit, January 23, 2017.
42. Ibid.
43. Ibid.
44. Stanley Greenberg, Middle Class Dreams: The Politics and Power of the New American Majority (New York: Times Books, 1995), p. 213.
45. Ibid.
46. Ibid., pp. 213–14.
47. John B. Judis, “What the Left Misses About Nationalism: The perception of a common national identity is essential to democracies and to the modern welfare state,” The New York Times, October 15, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html, accessed May 3, 2019.
48. Joseph E. Stiglitz, People, Power, Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent, (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2019), p. 82.
49. Joseph E. Stiglitz, People, Power, Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent, (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2019); E.J. Dionne, “Is There Such a Thing as Progressive Nationalism,” The American Prospect, April 1, 2019, https://prospect.org/article/there-such-thing-progressive-nationalism, accessed April 2, 2019; John B. Judis, The Nationalist Revival: Trade, Immigration, and the Revolt Against Globalization, (New York: Columbia Global Reports, 2018); Robert Kuttner, “Trump and China: The Art of the Desperate Deal: Will Robert Lighthizer restrain Donald Trump’s impulse to take a headline-grabbing and self-defeating China deal?,” The American Prospect, March 28, 2019, https://prospect.org/article/trump-and-china-art-desperate-deal.
50. Democracy Corps, “Back to Macomb: Reagan Democrats and Barack Obama,” August 22, 2008, http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/backtomacomb082208v11-final.pdf, accessed April 15, 2018, p. 5.
51. Rakesh Kochar and Anthony Cilluffo, “How Wealth Inequality Has Changed in the U.S. Since the Great Recession, by Race, Ethnicity and Income,” Pew Research Center, November 1, 20
17, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/11/01/how-wealth-inequality-has-changed-in-the-u-s-since-the-great-recession-by-race-ethnicity-and-income/, accessed April 16, 2018.
52. Stanley Greenberg, America Ascendant: A Revolutionary Nation’s Path to Addressing Its Deepest Problems and Leading the 21st Century (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2015), p. 79.
53. Ibid., pp. 129–31.
54. Ibid., pp. 131–39.
55. Ibid., pp. 119–20.
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