by Lucy Hawking
Success stories: the remarkable eradication of smallpox
But let’s look on the bright side. Thanks to medical science, tremendous progress has been made to identify and combat infectious deadly diseases. Two great success stories are the development of vaccines and life-saving antibiotics—although you have probably heard that antibiotic resistance is becoming a serious problem that needs to be tackled urgently in the future. Along with vaccines and medicines, public health interventions, such as quarantine, improved sanitation, and better nutrition, have also contributed to a doubling of the average life expectancy, from around forty to fifty years in the early twentieth century to seventy to eighty years today, at least in the wealthier nations.
A truly remarkable story is the global eradication of smallpox—one of the most feared of all infectious diseases in the past. There was never a cure for smallpox, but with the introduction of a vaccine the disease was finally wiped off the face of the Earth by 1980. There is every hope now that another virus, polio, will, through a vaccination program, be the next major human disease to become history.
Our future: what can you do?
Scientists working in the field of newly emerging infectious diseases are like detectives. Nobody knows when the next epidemic or pandemic will strike, but being prepared and acting fast is vital. Just imagine: you could be a “disease detective” looking for clues in some remote, mosquito-infested forest of the tropical world; in a live bird market of a densely packed city; in a shantytown lacking basic sanitation; sitting at a computer exchanging data with international colleagues; or working in a highly secure biohazard laboratory.
Yes—in the future there are fantastic opportunities for you to play a major and groundbreaking role by becoming skilled in human or veterinary medicine, science, nursing, and related fields of healthcare research and practice. The world desperately needs those who have the brains, passion, and persistence to come up with new cures, vaccines, diagnostic tests, and bright ideas about how to prevent future pandemic threats, or tackle older and neglected diseases of the world’s poorest populations. In short, to become champions for planetary health.
Will you be on the team?
War in Fifty Years
by Dr. Jill S. Russell
Reflecting upon the one-hundred-year anniversary of the end of the First World War and today’s ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and beyond, it is difficult to discuss war and warfare with young readers. We want to imagine and share with future generations how war is a terrible exception to the general goodness that humanity can display. But the truth is that wars, and how they are fought, are in fact integral to mankind’s past and present, influencing every part of humanity’s development.
Despite its record of human devastation, the role of war is not always as negative as it seems. Across history, wars have forged nations, given birth to ideas and, yes, sometimes even righted the worst wrongs. War is not only for a bully nation, or for those with the worst intentions, but it is not always a mistake to avoid it. Finally, whether fought for good or ill, wars rely upon every function and corner of society. Thus to explain how the future of war and warfare might develop is to imagine the progress of all of mankind—our different societies and economies, cultures and beliefs, politics and power structures.
Rather than limiting this to my own answers, I would like to inspire your imagination as much as tell a story of the potential future. We will start at the beginning, and then examine the current trends that are likely to have a significant influence across society and war in the coming decades. It can only be brief, as the other essays in this book offer fantastic insights into the future on many issues that are important for where we could find ourselves in fifty years’ time.
I also want to share how I craft my own view of the future of war, using the limitless possible variations on three simple questions: who is fighting, why, and how. Exploring some of those will create the beginnings of a picture of the future. It will also provide a starting point for you to imagine possible futures and to think about how you might adapt or shape those trends over the coming years.
When we look to an imagined future, it is from the perspective of important new trends that will have both global and local effects. From climate change to artificial intelligence, growing megacities to the interconnectivity of global communications—like the Internet—the paths of humanity are changing in response to a worldwide technological and economic revolution on the scale of the Industrial Revolution. This emerging world will shape conflict as today’s ways of doing things struggle to meet tomorrow’s challenges, as those with the power to do so adapt to take advantage of the opportunities, and as our motivations for war shift.
What trends do I think will most affect the course of the future, and thus conflict?
I would identify the rapidly evolving worlds of technology, social politics and climate as the three big areas that will help to define the coming decades.
Let’s begin with technology. Advances in computing and related technology promise to reshape human life in unprecedented ways, with artificial intelligence, nano-worlds, robotics, and bioengineering—all areas you might find yourself working in at some point in the future. Self-sustaining and thinking products and machines will improve some aspects of life while displacing human activity and perhaps even controlling others. The participation of humanoid robots, autonomous drones, or functionally invisible nano-bots on the front lines of future conflict would seriously change the combat environment and laws of war.
Secondly, social politics. Socially and culturally, changes to how we see gender and sexuality are accelerating, particularly in the armed forces. For example, are the Kurdish women who are currently fighting ISIS in Syria at the vanguard of a new world of equality between the sexes? It is likely so, as across the globe in Africa, Europe, and the Americas, women—as well as those who identify as gay or transgender—are increasingly joining conflicts as fighters. How they will adapt and change the cultures and fighting of the armed forces could range from minor edits to a metamorphosis in tactics, doctrines, and equipment. Politically, we also face shifting beliefs and politics that are rearranging how power is created and divided globally.
Finally, our climate. As climate change affects more of humanity, the devastation from storms and droughts, dwindling resources, polluted water and air, and effects we have not yet identified, could drive more to fight in a desperate bid to survive.
In all, the world as it exists today is already creating the changes to the future that will shape war.
Against these trends, we can begin to consider how to expand and answer the three essential questions of who fights, why, and how.
If we think about the first—who—this question includes which states or groups are willing to go to war, as well as which members of society will bear the brunt of the fighting. Mass armed forces of the state—whether professional troops or those conscripted—have been the standard for several centuries. But the rise of terrorist organizations suggests that the state will increasingly have to share the battlefield with other combatants. Those whose reasons for fighting are not related to their country of birth or nationhood, but extend beyond that—such as eco-warriors—may fight in forms adopted by extremist groups like al-Qaeda: sub-state (within the country, as small units) and transnational (including members from more than one nation).
Thinking of state armed forces, it’s debatable whether the mass armies, navies, and air forces of twentieth-century warfare—like those used on D-Day and shown in movies like Dunkirk—will continue. Smaller military forces that are dominated by their use of technology will require a different mix of skills drawn from segments of society that may not have usually served in armies of the past: programmers, drone operators, and coders rather than Special Forces Marines! But even as some conflicts will need something other than the state model of forces personnel, other conflicts could depend on groups of countries working together in an alliance to deal with “m
ega” issues like the destruction of a major city because of a storm.
Why people—whether grouped in state armed forces or in other forms of fighting units—are willing to fight is also shifting. The nationalisms and ideologies that drove war in the twentieth century are abating, and giving way to a multitude of issues that look hard to resolve without armed conflict. Instead of patriotism, for instance, it is now often ethnic identity or religious beliefs that have become a common means to organize anger and will—a source of trouble in today’s world that seems likely to continue as an engine of conflict. And as more people live in cities in a world where climate change can have major effects, or a viral pandemic can have a devastating impact, we can expect to see more nonstate groups fighting in defense of the environment or resources, and more states taking action against communicable disease.
The last of my three questions—how we will fight—is perhaps the most difficult to imagine. The conflicting developments in technology and society can either lead us to a depopulated, automated battlefield or to more ancient, personal forms of violence. While nations on the rise, like China, India, or Brazil, invest in the traditional massed armed forces, Russia is allegedly experimenting with hacking, groups like ISIS are in conflicts with visible savagery, and the US is at the forefront of unmanned military technology, like drones. It will be over the next decade or two that we determine which of these will prevail, and in what combinations.
We can only explore ideas about how the future may turn out, as it will be driven both by forces we know about—and by those we don’t. But I hope that this essay will inspire you, the reader, to think more about it. Take the three questions proposed here—who, why, and how—and think about the possibilities yourself. Not only should this be an interesting experiment for you, but it also just might help you to prepare for the world to come, the world of your own future.
The Future of Politics Is . . . You!
by Andy Taylor
Politics is about power. It’s true that a few people want power because they are bossy and like the sound of their own voice, or they think other people will be impressed by them. But you find such people in other places too. The important thing is that most people who work in politics want to use their power to do good things, to help people, and to make their neighborhood, their country, and the world a better place. Using the power of a whole country to put your ideas into practice is one of the best ways of making big changes happen—like tackling climate change or introducing exciting new technology. However, to be successful, you can’t just be right; you also need to convince other people to agree with you.
Listening to politicians
With the power given to them by voters, politicians can do things that other people and organizations can’t. They can pass laws that everybody has to abide by, and they can make everybody pay taxes, and spend that money on their ideas. That means considering many different views and judging which ideas are likely to work—which is why debating is such an important part of politics. Robust arguments are a sign of a healthy democracy—as long as people are debating what is best for the country, not just calling each other rude names!
People worry that politicians don’t say what they mean. Politicians find it very difficult to admit to making mistakes or saying that there are things they don’t know, even though they are human like the rest of us. To them, admitting they are not perfect feels very difficult because they have so many political opponents and journalists watching every move, waiting for them to slip up.
To avoid this problem, some politicians may fall into the trap of saying everything is perfect; they may also avoid answering simple questions or taking responsibility for their decisions. Some try to divert attention from their own mistakes by shouting loudly about their opponents, and some try to disguise their own opinions as facts that can’t be challenged. Listening to the arguments can teach you a lot, and the politicians who are the most open and honest about their opinions, and who want to do the right thing, usually end up looking better than those trying to dodge questions.
Trying out your own opinions
A good start is to try reading or listening to a politician’s views on an issue you are interested in—maybe something mentioned in this book, or something else: perhaps the invention of driverless cars, protecting endangered tigers, or stopping pollution on beaches. You could follow news stories on TV, via downloads, read a number of different newspapers, or follow the debates on social media.
Think about which parts you agree with and which you don’t. Find other people who are talking about the same issue, and see what you think. Do you agree, or do you have a different opinion? It can be just as much fun finding people you really disagree with. Try and spot when you think a politician is not giving a straight answer, or is making their answer deliberately complicated, or when they claim something as an absolute fact when it is actually just their opinion.
In math, there’s only one right answer to a sum. In physics, you know that if you throw an apple into the air it will definitely fall back to the Earth. Politics, however, is about making your own judgements, working out what you think and then making the case for others to agree with you. Remember, too, that you can also change your mind as you learn more about an issue.
How you can change the world
Having opinions is good, but it doesn’t change anything by itself. If you want something important to change, you have to find out who has the power to make the right decisions. You might want to ban plastic bags—well, who is responsible for making new laws? Or you might want a new basketball court in your neighborhood—so who is responsible for paying for that?
Remember that politicians don’t have to listen to just you—they have lots of different people coming to them with problems and ideas. They only have a limited amount of time and money, and it can be tricky to make the right decision.
Just as politicians need support to get elected, you need to show that your idea works and will be popular. You might join an organization that is already working on the issues you are passionate about. You might want to start a petition—a list signed by all the people who agree with your idea. You could write to your local newspaper. The most important thing is to find people and organizations who believe in the same things you believe in and have the same goal to get something done.
In the past, politics has been controlled by small groups of people who decided what they thought was best for everyone. Looking ahead, I believe that the brightest future for politics and for the strength of our democracies is for us to embrace an idea called pluralism. This means involving many different people in making political decisions, listening to various points of view, and encouraging everybody to take an active interest in the decisions made about the place—town, country, planet—where they live.
The first step in achieving pluralism is for as many people as possible to get involved. That includes you. You might first become an active follower of politics, working out what you believe and what you think needs to change. When you’re old enough, you’ll have the important responsibility of voting at elections. You might even become a supporter or campaigner for the issues you are passionate about—and perhaps one day you’ll be elected as a politician and make the big decisions yourself.
However you get involved, you have the same right to an opinion as everybody else, and an equal right for your voice to be heard.
That’s why the future of politics is you.
Cities of the Future
by Beth West
When you ask people to imagine what the city of the future will look like, most have an idea of what they expect. My idea started with a cartoon that was first shown in 1962 called The Jetsons. Living in 2062, the Jetson family had an apartment in a very tall building, everyone rode around in flying cars, Mr. Jetson worked for only two hours per week, and the dog was walked on a treadmill rather than outside. Several concepts shown in The Jetsons have already come true: they talked to each other th
rough their televisions (videoconferencing/Skype/Facetime) and read their newspapers on their television screens as well (iPads/Kindles).
Whatever you think future cities will be like when we reach 2062 or 2081 or beyond, they will keep evolving and there are many challenges that will need to be addressed in order to make cities livable places in the future, rather than the bleak Edenopolis George describes.
The modern city—in which a large proportion of the world’s population now make their homes—has been around for less than two hundred years. Although cities have existed for over five thousand years, only 2 percent of the global population lived in them as recently as 1800. As the Industrial Revolution changed how we made and grew things, more and more people moved into our cities. Two hundred years later, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, over 50 percent of the global population was living in cities. In the most developed countries in the world, about 75 percent of people live in cities. By 2030, it is estimated that 67 percent of the global population and about 85 percent of people in the most developed countries will be living in cities!
So, if the vast majority of us are going to be living in the cities of the future, what do we need to do to make them truly livable places for the benefit of all of their residents?
As with many areas of the future, technology will have a big role to play, and many of the different elements of life will need to work together to create somewhere that we want to call home.